Saturday, August 16, 2008

POLL: Fairfax Nielson 16 August 2008

National leader John Key's honeymoon with voters is starting to look like a very comfortable marriage.

National has barely budged from governing-alone territory in our Fairfax Media-Nielsen poll - last November being the previous occasion when it dipped below 50 per cent.

Labour's situation may not yet be irredeemable - it will be heartened that, on this result, it is within cooee of the 39 per cent of the vote it gained in 1999 to win the election. It won in 2002 with 41.2 per cent of the vote and in 2005 with 41.5 per cent.

But the numbers don't tell the full story - and comparisons to dog tucker are becoming harder to dodge.

In 1999, 2002 and 2005, Labour won against a diminished National Party and though its poll ratings appear to be holding up, that has come at the expense of the minor parties - not National.


Fairfax Nielson Poll: 19 July 2008
Fairfax Neilson Poll: 21 June 2008
Fairfax Neilson Poll: 17 May 2008
Fairfax Neilson Poll: 23 Feb 2008

c & Political Animal 2008

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