Saturday, August 16, 2008

2008 Election outcome

Going by the latest political polls and the trend of others over the last year, it looks like National will get the bulk of the vote by far at the coming election. The poll trend of National being way ahead of Labour has continued in the two latest polls this weekend and is likely to be reinforced by a TV One Colmar Brunton Poll out tonight.

All the fear mongering and finger pointing over a "return to the 1990s and selling taxpayer assets" by Clark and her socialist misfits just hasn't helped them. Most of us can see past that as the lie that it is and a large bulk of voters are too young to remember the when New Zealand had to sell its assets to say afloat.

Don't count your chickens though if you are a National voter and hoping they will deservedly govern alone. Remember we have a bizarre voting system called MMP.

At current polls, if Labour was to get around 35% of the vote and National was down to about 50% the smaller parties that currently support Labour could get another Labour Minority government by a whisker and given what Ms Clark would have to bribe Winston, the Greens and the Maori Party with to get their support, New Zealand would be in for some even dodgier legislation passed than we have already seen over the last 9 years.

Labour are going to pull out the mother of all bribes shortly before the election so I think a close race is on the cards, with National having a slight edge.

Fairfax Nielson Poll: 16 August 2008
Roy Morgan Poll: 15 August 2008

c Political Animal 2008

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