Tuesday, December 6, 2016

Share Investor's 2017 Stock Picks

Halle Berry in Underwear | Les 30 plus belles actrices du monde:
She helped out last year and was kind enough to help out this year as well.

Well, this year has been a good one for stocks on the NZX

6324.26 vs 6824.00 as of today's date. The returns have been around 8%, to the overall investor, if you look at the overall index - that is without accounting for dividends.

I personally have got around a 30% return and that just keeps increasing as time marches on (and they will continue to increase) and I havent really bought much this year - because I don't have any cash - my lawyer currently gets that!


There have been many ups, the market in New Zealand was up to over 7400 in September and many downs, the index was down to 6174 in February.


Likewise the Dow Jones Index was up from 17,148.94 on 4th Jan 2016 to 19,216.24 on the 6th December.


Brexit and a whole host of other "its" have foisted their ugly head at us but regardless the world stays intact, we still make money and we always will. 


I will.

With that in mind I will make a start.


Let me start where I always start with my biggest holding, Sky City Entertainment SKC.

At the moment, it is a steaming buy. Especially at below four bucks. Any lower, and it could go lower, it is a steal. 


Big things are happening at Auckland Casino, Adelaide and these are all wrapped up for a long time yet - till 2048 in Auckland Casino's case.

There is talk surrounding a take over or merger with Sydney's Star City Casino but that is a rumour and I don't care, I don't want to sell.

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare 
FPH is a perennial pick, picked again last year, it improved substantially this year and took a dive from $10.93 to end up $8.20 at time of writing. 2017 will be its year and you may be able to grab it sub 8 bucks. You just don't know. 


The German injunctions granted against FPH's German subsidiary have been lifted and this will transfer to the injunctions in the US Courts. 
 
Plenty of money being spent, new things being created and sold at less and less cost.

All this means good things if YOU are already a shareholder.


Mainfreight Ltd MFT is well on track to deliver the goods in 2017. 


This has been Mainfreights year, $15.36 on Jan 1 and $20.45 as I write this and a recently announced and increased record profit and a forward looking year looking positive in numbers - the only black spot is the US division. Time will take care of that.


That is why I have been a holder of this company for well over 10 years. I receive a 10% plus net return on this one.


Auckland Airport AIA, it delivered in 2016, it will again in 2017.  It started the year at the high levels of $5.75 and trades this morning, 6th December, at $6.30 and traded as high as $7.75 as recently as September 1.

It could bust through 6 bucks in which case you should be in.

In fact and I will go off topic for a bit, the lower the stock you are interested in buying, have been following, done the research on etc, etc the more you should buy. 


I did this during the GFC and it has paid off handsomely - anyway.


Back to Auckland Airport. 


Its in transition right now - that is it is undergoing transformation - once this transformation is complete the port will be a stunner. Flash and new.


And it will begin again.


With all this building will the port become less profitable? No increasing profits are the rule and they have been for some time.


All those assets that they have, the land, the buildings are all central to the core that this will have lift off. 


Ryman Healthcare RYM is of course a definite push for the entry doors as this keeps getting bigger and bigger. Ignore all broker conflabs about when to buy etc. Do your own research and find the time to get yourself involved.


This company is set to almost double in size within the next 5 years and their Melbourne sites are set to quintuple before 2020 and eventually get far bigger than little old New Zealand. 


Contact Energy CEN, get it while its under or close to 5 bucks. Its got a clear 4-5 years ahead as far as capital returns go.


You just don't know when this stock is going to surprise you. With special div's and share buybacks this share has been a good one in the Share Investor Portfolio.


It will continue.


The Warehouse WHS is included this year as opposed to last year where I dropped it.


I still have long term doubts but with recent buying by one James Pascoe taking him up to about 20% I have to re - consider.


I would rather have a piece of this rather than not, so I am only picking this for some M and A action next year.


Do not pick this for the long term - its a loser. 


Lastly my pick is Hallensteins Glassons HLG, You have to be PATIENT but you can pick it up and all day long its paying 10% plus.

And the best thing about it is that its NOT covered by analysts and brokers (surely two of the most painful words in the market-mans (see what I did there and I will do from now on) So you can make your way without the bluff and bluster.


Its due for a market upgrade in about a weeks time, when they have their AGM in CHCH. 


Everything is looking good for a LARGE upgrade in profit.

Its a good stock.


Told ya Id be biased. Well if I cant get behind my stocks and sell them who else is going to. 

Pick these stocks on dips in their share prices - they ALL have dips.


AND - do your own research - lots of it. 

If your picks line up with mine good and if they don't that's also good because that is what makes a market. 

It makes things interesting as well.

Next year could be another one like we have already had  - some dips but mostly up - or it could - drop but be mostly down. Whatever it is it will provide opportunities for all of us to make money 


See you next year.


Darren


P.S. If you have your own picks put them down at the bottom and tell us WHY you picked them.



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Friday, November 11, 2016

Contact Energy: Buy Now!



Chart forContact Energy Ltd (CEN.NZ)

Contact Energy is a screaming buy at the moment - I dont say this cause I am a shareholder, I say it because it represents value.

Its going down - the share price - for no good reason - ok well interest rates - and the time to buy it is now.

Later on if you do think you can pick the market, I cant.

You just cant beat this energy company - I would buy some more but I have no dollars left.



CEN @ Share Investor

Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 8
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 7
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 6
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 5 
Contact Energy look set to gain customers
I'm Buying: Contact Energy Ltd
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Not so fast Davy Boy
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Beam me up Davy
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MarketWatch: Contact Energy - June 2009
MarketWatch: Contact Energy - Jan 2009
Contact Energy looks bright during dark times
Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks
Follow the Monopoly Board

Discuss this stock at Share Investor Forum - Register free
Download CEN Company Reports


Share Investors Portfolio @ 11 Nov 2016


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Tuesday, October 18, 2016

Sky City: Chinese Invasion?

I don't know whether the latest Chinese foray into foreigners taking business off them by Arresting 18 Aussies in China but the following is Morningstar's reaction to yesterday's news.

Do with it what you will.


Detention of Crown Employees in China Elevates Risks for All Australian and New Zealand Casinos

Chinese authorities' detention of executive vice president VIP International Jason O'Connor and 17 other Crown Resorts employees has clear negative implications for the company, as well as for Star Entertainment and SkyCity Entertainment. Unfortunately, estimating the extent of the impact is almost impossible at this stage, particularly as the reasons for the detention remain unclear.

What is clear is the elevated risk profile for all these operators' exposure to the Chinese high roller market. In fiscal 2016, 27% of Crown's normalised group revenue was generated from the VIP market, 28% for Star and 15% for SkyCity. It is no exaggeration to say that this VIP market is dominated by Chinese patrons. While margins for this segment are lower than the main floor gaming business, VIP is an important driver of all these casino companies' long-term growth plans.

Indeed, Chinese high rollers are a major plank underpinning Crown's AUD 2.0 billion Sydney casino project, Star's AUD 2.2 billion investment (across STAR Sydney, Jupiters Gold Coast, Queen's Wharf Brisbane) and SkyCity's NZD 1.0 billion capital spending (across Auckland and Adelaide).

While the latest development in China vindicates our high uncertainty ratings for the casino companies under our coverage, we have maintained their fair value estimates at this stage (AUD 14.50 for Crown, AUD 4.00 for Star, NZD 4.40 for SkyCity).

We are reluctant to make a snap judgment on the impact of the Crown employee detention on the intrinsic value that we have on all these casino operators. There will clearly be an impact on earnings if there are any tightening restrictions on how their employees can promote Australia's "tourism appeal" to Chinese high rollers without directly marketing the group's casinos. However, much of this is merely conjecture at this point and certainly forms no basis to change our moat ratings for Crown (narrow), Star (none) and SkyCity (narrow).




Sky City Entertainment Group @ Share Investor

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Discuss SKC @ Share Investor Forum
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Share Investor 2016

Monday, October 10, 2016

Contact Energy: Buying on the Horizon


Chart forContact Energy Ltd (CEN.NZ)

Contact Energy is revisiting areas of value not seen since around March of this year when it was trading @ around $4.50.

Seems its suffering from a total lack of interest by most but not by this careful watcher.

With a steady stream of divs and perhaps a special div to come in the future this makes Contact a watch on this boys list with a buy at anything below $4.60.

A special note stocks are likely to remain cheap and get cheaper as the US Elections approach with an unfortunate win by Clinton looking good for a climb back in stock prices - she is funded by Wall Street.  



 CEN @ Share Investor

Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 8
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 7
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 6
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 5 
Contact Energy look set to gain customers
I'm Buying: Contact Energy Ltd
Share Investor Portfolio 2: Value @ 7 July 2011
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 4
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Not so fast Davy Boy
Still Watching Contact Energy
Beam me up Davy
Stock of the Week: Contact Energy
MarketWatch: Contact Energy - June 2009
MarketWatch: Contact Energy - Jan 2009
Contact Energy looks bright during dark times
Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks
Follow the Monopoly Board

Discuss this stock at Share Investor Forum - Register free
Download CEN Company Reports



Share Investors Portfolio @ 7 Oct 2016




The Warren Buffett Way
The Warren Buffett Way by Robert G. Hagstrom
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Share Investor 2016