Thursday, November 20, 2014

Share Investor's 2015 Stock Picks (UPDATED)

Author at beginning of year.
 
I think I will pick stocks this year and give readers a chance to fill in the blanks yourselves.

Apart from the fact that the NZX 50 is up around 900 points to finish at 5530 today, you would have to say the index shows our market has been way overbought and is due for a correction, how much and when is a little harder to define.

That may also not happen, if America keeps on with its wacky ways.

With this in mind here we go.


Fisher and Paykel Healthcare

Quite high at the moment but long term readers will know I've picked this every year since I started this.

Give it a miss at these prices if you want to invest - it will get cheaper. But if your one of those short termers its worth grabbing. Will go north of $6.00.


Sky City Entertainment

This is the year I'm picking for this wonderful stock, it has almost paid for itself in 13 short/long years, divs.

I'm picking it to finally deliver in the last part of 2015. Momentum will see this stock in the high 5s.


The Warehouse Group

I'm picking this stock, because I have a hunch its dec statement to us, the public, will be a good one and its sales figures out in Jan will be more of the same. It is likely that a turn around has come.

Cross fingers.


Mainfreight Ltd

I picked this stock because of its ability to stick to its knitting, get the job done, and bring in the results.

Time after time.

2015 will be an outstanding year for the company.
 

Contact Energy

2015 will be a good year for Contact.

Although 2015 - 17 will be restrained in terms of demand, their supply will rewarded with historical lows in terms of cost of production.

Management have signalled either buy back, special div or higher divs for now and into the future.


Ryman Healthcare Ltd

This stock amazes me.

While it was languishing in the high 20s that's $1.20 during the financial crises of 2008 - 2011 it hardly rated a mention, I was buying it then (first disclosure).

It was making record profits then.

Now it and its sisters are making headlines once a week, how hot is the property market right now.

This will take off once the most recent profit result is known - this Friday 21 Nov.

Get it while you can.


Auckland Airport

This company is well on the road to earning the big bucks.

It wasn't long ago, 4 years ago, that it was making 100m, now it will do close to twice that.

Ain't going to have any competition, not while I'm or my daughters alive.

I see nothing but growth for this one, get on and fly.



Hallenstein Glasson Holdings

A brief one which I've traded 4x before that goes in cycles the way that it always has.

Management are aware things change - they have been in the clothing biz for over 100 years and know where it at, that is why I don't mind holding. They are a good company.

They are near the bottom once again and by most they appear to be making there way to the top again.
 

Heartland New Zealand
 
This one I picked last year @ 80 something cents.
 
I pick It again next year as it looks set to expand and grow revenue and profit.
 
Something tells me that this is a dark horse.
 
A Xero, in the making if you like, except this company makes a profit and has got a clear purpose.
 
Get it now for big future gains.
 
 
NZ Refining
 
NZ Refining is a cyclical stock and at present its in the low part of the cycle.
 
1.97 per share is cheap when one considers your buying 2.05 of NTA.
 
Get in while you can on good long term - 2 plus years - gain.
 
 
Trademe Group
 
If you can get this around $4.00 you could earn almost a buck a share next year.
 
It looks set to consolidate next reporting season, perhaps a we bit up and grow slightly during 2015.
 
Not a share I would own for a long time, has no future, but good to get in and out of on its way down to zero.
 
 
Team Talk
 
This one has been on my watchlist for years.
 
Its on the small-cap index.
 
Principally because of its dividend, which has been 2x 10c for long as I can remember but has recently come down to 7.5c x 2. The company say it will stay that way all of next year.
 
The share price has come down by more than the cost of the div making this a good long term bet to take off once it sees an improvement in bus.
 
Any improvement in the biz would see the div raised.
 
 
Air NZ
 
Just one last one to tempt the weak and perhaps make the very same strong if they hold onto this one to long.
 
If you can get this at 2.15 per share you should be good for the rest of 2015.
 
The running costs are doing down and patronage is up.
 
Beautiful!
 
It will not last forever.


Warning

What not to buy!

At the time of writing this addition 19.12.14 11.30am the stock that I've got to mention is XRO. It is at $15.70 at time of writing and is set to make further slippages in 2015. It reached a high of over $45 and some and is many years away from making a profit - if at all. It has been 6.5 years on the NZX.

Stay away.

Conclusion 
 
As I said in the brief intro I think the index looks a little shaky.
 
I see a brief upswing in the new year then a tapering off throughout the year.
 
But we are talking a new reality, markets aren't going down like they should do.
 
America is doing things with its dollar that we haven't seen before and suffering the consequences - the market is going up not down.
 
The economy is lulling itself into a false sense of security, its not letting out the bung, it just continues to stuff it with continued monetary expansion.
 
O.k, I'll leave it there.
 
Except to say, they - America - cannot let the bung out, to do so would jeopardize world markets.



* As an addendum, the stocks from  Fisher and Paykel to Hallensteins are stocks in the share investors portfolio and are included because they are the bomb.

The rest are very worthy additions.


An Alternative to that biased, joke that is Sharetrader.

www.shareinvestorforum.com


Share Investor's Annual Stock Picks

Share Investor's 2014 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2013 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2012 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2010 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2008 Stock picks

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Brokers 2014 Stock Picks
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c Share Investor 2015, 2016

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Hubbard to blame for collapse of South Canterbury Finance.


Well it is official. All that he said, she said.

Allan Hubbard is to blame for the collapse of South Canterbury Finance.

All that time and money spent on following that dear old sod finally paid off.

We finally got there.

He is guilty.

You cant get him to pay for what he did, and im not sure you could given the ineffectiveness of our justice system.

BUT at least you got the blame pointed at who was responsible.

Allan Hubbard.


Allan Hubbard Saga


Full SFO Statement on SCF Fraud Investigation
Hubbard Letter to Simon Power
Download Grant Thornton Report 1
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Download Grant Thornton Report 7 - Aorangi Securities
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Allan Hubbard Saga: Does death mean the End?
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Allan Hubbard Saga: When Monkeys Attack!
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Allan Hubbard Saga: The Defence
Allan Hubbard Saga: Fraud Charges - The Detail
Allan Hubbard Saga: Hubbard to Face Fraud Charges
Adam Feely on Hubbard Fraud Charges
Allan Hubbard Saga: Answers to Investor's Frequently Asked Questions
Allan Hubbard Saga: Still Feral After All These Years
Allan Hubbard Saga: Sixth Grant Thornton Report
Allan Hubbard Saga: Hubbard looks set to cop a plea
Allan Hubbard Saga: Supporters Risk Legal Action
Allan Hubbard Saga: Mental Challenge
Allan Hubbard Saga: Hubbard Defiant in 2011
Book Review: Allan Hubbard: Man Out of Time, by Virginia Green
Allan Hubbard Saga: VIDEO - Hubbard Biographer Virginia Green on TVNZ's Breakfast
Book Extract - Allan Hubbard: Man Out of Time
Allan Hubbard Saga: Going Feral - Part 3, The Final Cut
Allan Hubbard Saga: Going Feral - Part 2
Allan Hubbard Saga: Paul Carruthers Goes Feral... Again
Allan Hubbard: The Biography
Allan Hubbard Saga: On Forged Signatures and Uncharitable Trusts
Allan Hubbard Saga: Evidence of Fraud now Clear
Allan Hubbard Saga: NBR VS the SFO
Allan Hubbard Saga: South Canterbury Finance to be investigated by the SFO
Allan Hubbard Saga: Third Grant Thornton Report
Allan Hubbard Saga: Will He Walk?
Allan Hubbard Saga: No Longer Bothered by Botherway
Allan Hubbard Saga: 60 Minutes Interview, Sept 23 2010
Allan Hubbard Saga: Supporters head to the exit door
Allan Hubbard Saga: Threats & the Mysterious PWC Report
Allan Hubbard Supporters: Conflict of Interest
VW Veneer reveals BMW heart
VIDEO: Jenni McManus Explains Allan Hubbard Collapse
Allan Hubbard Statement on SCF Receivership
VIDEO: Sandy Maier - full news conference on SCF Receivership
Market Alert: South Canterbury Finance to be placed in Receivership
Allan Hubbard: Ignorant Supporters Blissfully Unaware
Thornton Report 2: Allan Hubbard Guilty as Charged
Allan Hubbard: Full TV3 Interview - July 16 2010
Thornton Report 1: Allan Hubbard's Aorangi Securities
Bothered by Simon Botherway


c Share Investor 2014







Sunday, July 6, 2014

The Share Investor Portfolio: Where it is today

Time to check in and see if I have refashioned, refocused, retooled or just left things the way they are with the Share Investor Portfolio.

Well, I have just revised the portfolio by adding one thing, and that is MOA.NZ. With that I have bought just 1000 at 55c. Of course they are now down to 41c, any minute now they are going to do a Lazarus like recovery and head on way past $1. That is the theory, we will soon see the practice.

I have noticed that MFT.NZ has really packed on the pounds recently putting on 45c to finish closing at $14.85. A real little rocker that finished on a high on Friday and looks set to continue. I wouldn't sell it at any price, look to see this share setting new records over the years. Management don't set well with dividing up share prices for the hell of it so looks like its headed up to Xero territory, and to stay there.

Another share doing well has been FPH.NZ , at around $4.68 it looks like it will double in value over the coming 5 years as its revenue tops 1 Billion - could be a race between Fishers and Mainfreight to see who reaches silly heights, love the market.

SKC.NZ isn't doing well at the moment, I thinks its started this year about where it is now - but be warned when news comes out about the new gaming features the company is going to bring to the market and how well they do - the share is going to take off. It owes me very little.

RYM.NZ is another great , fantastic, splendid share. Cant really say much more about this, growing BIG.

AIA.NZ has taken a wee turn for the worse but owes me very little, while CEN.NZ has returned about 30% but has yet to take off - National winning the election will take care of that.

And the WHS.NZ is doing what it always does, lurching along from one profit warning to another.

One truly good company, HLG.NZ is down about 25% bought 10000 last year for $4.42 is struggling and even though it has recently came out with all looks well, seems to be marking time to the actual profit announcement in September.

Well, thats it really, remember, think and do your OWN research before plucking down the dollars. It is only money but its your money!


Share Investor's 2014 Stock Picks




c Share Investor 2014

Friday, January 3, 2014

Brokers 2014 Stock Picks

Superstar Xero a surprising omission from list for investors to add to their portfolios

Mainfreight is a popular pick for a strong performance in 2014 due to its increasing international exposure. Photo /  Sarah Ivey
Mainfreight is a popular pick for a strong performance in 2014 due to its increasing international exposure. Photo / Sarah Ivey

Air New Zealand is the most popular pick by brokers for 2014 riding on the back of strong expectations for profit growth at the national carrier.

Three out of seven brokers chose the airline, whose shares have already risen more than 25 per cent this year.

Rob Mercer, an analyst at Forsyth Barr, said Air New Zealand was heading into 2014 in great shape with earnings expected to increase from those already seen in 2013.

"Air New Zealand (is) poised to deliver several years of strong profit performance."

Mercer said the drivers behind that were improved demand, cost cutting, changes to loss-making long-haul routes and stable fuel prices.

Macquarie analyst Brad Gordon said Air New Zealand had outperformed its airline peers yet it was trading at a cheaper price.

"Air New Zealand's return on equity is around 11 per cent, Qantas is basically zero."

Gordon said that in the past Air New Zealand's value had traded at a discount because of the Government's high level of ownership.

The 20 per cent sold down by the Government in 2013 reduced the overhang issue and increased liquidity in the stock. Trade volumes had been boosted from around half a million dollars a day to around $1.5 million to $2 million.

Gordon said the nature of the New Zealand market meant Air New Zealand stood to benefit from the country's strong economic growth and flow-on effects from the Christchurch rebuild with more people travelling up and down the country.

Outside of Air New Zealand, Diligent, Chorus, Fisher & Paykel Healthcare, Contact Energy, Infratil and Mainfreight received two picks each.

Diligent, a software providers of corporate board documents, was a top performer in 2012 but this year it has struggled with governance issues and delays in restating its accounts. Its shares have fallen more than 25 per cent.

Gordon was not worried about Diligent having to restate its accounts.

"It's not entirely unusual for new software companies to go through restatements globally."

The big question mark was whether the issue had distracted management and impacted sales for the company. He would be looking closely at quarterly sales figures due out early next year.

Diligent was a top pick for brokers in 2013 but remarkably none of the brokers have picked Xero either this year or for 2014, despite its stellar performance.

Gordon believed that was down to a lack of understanding over Xero's valuation. "The last $15 the company put on really there has been no news. On the face of it it's the most expensive SAAS (software as a service) company on valuation."

Others have zeroed in on companies with strong global growth prospects.

Mark Lister, head of research at Craigs Investment Partners, said he picked Fisher & Paykel Healthcare because the business is growing strongly offshore and was well positioned to continue to deliver over the medium term. "If we see any currency weakness emerge, this would serve to enhance the investment proposition even more," he said.

Lister also picked Mainfreight for its increasing international exposure.

"Mainfreight has a strong brand and market position in Australasia but over recent years, an increasing portion of revenues and earnings have come from international operations including those in Europe and the US.

"A recovery in some of these regions, as well as any strength in the currency, would benefit Mainfreight."

Forsyth Barr's Mercer said he backed Mainfreight because it had a high marginal return on equity, it was beating peers on earnings growth and had a proactive executive team.

"Mainfreight has substantial global growth prospects."

Brokers top picks:


Macquarie Securities
Summerset Group
Diligent
Pumpkin Patch
Air New Zealand
Chorus

First NZ Capital
Fisher and Paykel Healthcare
Hellaby Holdings
Airwork Holdings
Z Energy
Contact Energy

Goldman Sachs
Trade Me
Tower
Air New Zealand
Infratil
Nuplex

Craigs Investment Partners
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Fletcher Building
Meridian Energy
Mainfreight
Australian Foundation Investment Company

Forsyth Barr
Air New Zealand
Contact Energy
Sky Television.
Mainfreight
Opus International Consultants

Hamilton Hindin Greene
Metlifecare
Chorus
Steel & Tube
A2 Corp
NZX

McDouall Stuart
Telecom
Diligent
Infratil
Heartland Bank
VMob

*Disclaimer - Before using the Business Herald survey to choose a broker or stocks, readers should recognise that the results are skewed by some features. The figures exclude brokers fees. Brokers are asked to choose the securities that will give the best short-term performance. If they had been asked to choose, for example, a five year term, the results might be different. The survey does not allow brokers to review choices during the year. The survey implies a one-size-fits-all approach. It takes no account of individual circumstances such as an investor's appetite for risk, need for income or tax circumstances. The views expressed do not constitute personalised financial advice and are not directed at any person. Finally, past performance is no guarantee of future performance.


Share Investor's Annual Stock Picks

Share Investor's 2014 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2013 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2012 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2010 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2008 Stock picks

Broker Picks

Brokers 2014 Stock Picks
Brokers 2013 Stock Picks
Brokers 2012 Stock Picks
Brokers 2011 Stock Picks




c Share Investor 2012, 2013, 2014