Friday, October 16, 2020

Mainfreight: $100 dollars and up




Mainfreight just had a recent profit upgrade of 23% this week with a promise of more to come.

When it reached $24 intra-day briefly back in March it pretty much never looked back and has climbed ever since to touch an all-time high of $53.90c.

The big buying was back in Feb by Fisher Funds then again when it plumbed the depths in March. So you must take that on board when considering any purchases of this stock. It has gone up on relatively little stock - one or two million most days with sort of pepper potting of $5-6m of turnover.

But things are a foot. Management is pleased with the results getting new clients and seemingly thriving in this covid period when others have wilted. I would expect nothing else. AND question management if things were to flatten off BUT it hasn't.

So i will make a prediction. I expect to reach that $100 a share mark in around about 5 years with around $6B in revenues.

In between times I expect the stock to come off the boil soon AND that's when to buy. Perhaps next year when we are kinda going to have to face the facts that we - New Zealand Inc - are well and truly ....ed and the markets will start rocking again.

Until then DYOR and careful out there, there is only one of YOU.







Saturday, October 10, 2020

Contact Energy: Up or down from here?




The old chestnut rears its not so ugly head again.

Contact Energy.

I have traded/owned this stock since its was IPO'ed in 1998 at $3.10 - Around about its present NTA.

I have 30,000 shares of this in the portfolio. The majority of which i purchased this year during the depths of this govt-led recession. I have held the balance since 2011.

I have traded this stock up and down from IPO right up to over $10 - yes it was that price in the late noughties up to this year, 2020 when it briefly hit just above $4. It has gone up steadily since then - albeit for a brief couple of months when it lost about a buck overnight when the whole business over Tiwai Point occurred

It has been going up recently - on increased VOL - because it may soon be included in the New Zealand MSCI index. I have no idea whether it has been in the index before.

It MAY be worth a punt from todays close $7.85 on $10.5m worth of shares if you going for a short term thing.

It may even be worth getting for your portfolio as it is currently getting 4.97% net and you don't know what the reaction to covid-19 is going to be from the morons that Govern us.

Contact Energy is one of the safest bets on the market in these troubled times - and every time there is 'troubled times' Contact has been there.

The MSCI index result will be announced on November 11, with re-balancing occurring on November 30.

You dear reader may want to swing on this one.

DYOR!!





CEN @ Share Investor

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Discuss this stock at Share Investor Group




Share Investor 2020

Friday, September 25, 2020

Why Hallensteins has the Advantage over Everyone Else



Hallensteins Glassons - HLG.

You know it's a well run company - I'd say the best company of its type anywhere in Australasia.

It does not have any debt and has cash in the bank. Whatever challenge it faced up to in its over 140 years of existence it has overcome that. Covid 19 will be no different.

In the area it operates in one thing is clear. The weaker competition is falling - including the recent influx of overseas brands.

Once a couple of these have got the tail between their legs and scuppered, from this part of the world or entirely - they all hold far too much debt. Hallensteins will be there to mop up the peices AND have far less competition!!

So Hallensteins will be planning right now to change, just how much change is up to conjecture but they will probably change anyway. Their online store is just one feature. The only change down at Hallensteins HQ will the fact that Covid 19 is just another one of those changes of a long list they been through before. 

One thing I constantly am appalled about and that is the comparions made between the economic fallout  from Covid 19 and the Great Depression.  It is by no means as serious as the Great Depression and is not likely to be unless something goes horribly wrong - that whole Great Depression/Recession thing annoys me. We have got a long way to go before we stoop to the depths of depravity those poor souls had to suffer - So Hallensteins passed the Great Depression.

Hallensteins will come out of this - Covid19 - in the same way. The way they have come out of the rest of the calamities than have befallen them. With a new approach to doing business.

For without that new approach combined with the old fashioned attitude towards debt Hallensteins Glassons Group would be yesterdays toast.




Now im no expert at share prices. I just know a great company when i see one. This little puppy plumbed the depths of about $1.80c just a couple of weeks ago. Right now its up on hope - its doubled in price to about $3.60c - hope that things will get started again - soon.

You could buy today or take your chances and buy on the bad news. Because there is more bad news - none moreso than any other stock on the nzx.com - to come with this stock.

DYOR.

  

Hallenstein Glasson @ Share Investor


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Discuss HLG @ Share Investor Group 



Share Investor 2020

Friday, September 18, 2020

Flying Close to the Sun




Im just sitting here at the moment pondering. I am sitting here on a beautiful Autumn day - 21 degrees - and Edinburgh is pretty much doing what it has been doing for the last 100 years. Going to work, largely

I guess you are sitting down at your computer and wondering when this #covid19 bullshit is going to stop.We must go "back to work" and that means most of the restrictions that we face in most parts of the globe - except Sweden where they have got it right - must be rescinded.

We have got companies and individuals that have been hurt fatally and many others that are right on the edge. 

Which brings me to the point of this post. Flying.

I have been on this route - from Hastings to Edinburgh for a couple of years with of little consequence except of course the length of the flight and i look up into the sky now whenever a plane fly's by because they are so few these days, to see where the plane is domiciled.

I was just watching CNBC and they had a full list of the Airline companies that have borrowed money and boy have they all collectively borrowed 10's of billions of green backs - remember this is CNBC. BUT taking a sweep over the lot of them - Delta American Airlines etc  looking at their market caps they are down around half of what they were trading at before this thing began back in Feb. HALF.

BUT trading has not returned to anything like half the biz they were once doing.

True they are doing much better than #airnewzealand and #Qantas is doing right now because in the US they rely far more on domestic than they do international for numbers of people through the door.

BUT i still remain highly skeptical about the Airline market as an investment. We all know of the impact our Govts have had on the market. This at the moment is a current thing. Things have not changed highly for the last 6 months. Yet these Airline companies are still "worth" billions - they are not.

The Airline market wasn't a money maker before 2020 and after that date things are looking very dicey - as a plane from Qatar fly's overhead, must be the only plane that i have heard today VS #precovid19 they were flying all the time - and the longer the knukkle draggers in parliament/s all across the world waggle their finger at us the dicier it does get.

But look at the market caps people, i wouldn't even get on the plane. I would be off at the internet booking and putting my money elsewhere.

May I suggest you are a masochistic if you don't.










c Shareinvestor 2020

 

Monday, July 27, 2020

Sky City: Covid-19 The Aftermath

The Sky Tower, Auckland - License, download or print for £12.40 ...


I have been a holder of Sky City shares for 20 years. 

In that time I have seen the company expand and grow with profit and revenue steadily increasing but not to the extent it did in the early noughties.

In the same time there were a lot of red hearings in terms of investments; The cinema, Darwin and a whole host of other failed experiments - some of them big some of them not so big.

I believe currently they have the mix about right. With their two sites in Adelaide and Auckland and a commercial - currently - online business.

HOWEVER, they have this #covid19 business to deal with also.

I believe that once again this remains on track and that all business will come back to #precovid19 levels. When is another question. We wont cover that here because there are far too many variables AND it will take a long time. 2 plus years.

In the mean time I believe that management are talking about a "much smaller" localized versions on both sides of the Tasman. That is, largely free from the tourist trade at the beginning. That means down on the tourist sector dollar from their hotels to their hospitality. 

But this means targeting a "new" punter, the local. 

AND that's easy. You just give the local punter enough incentive to get out there and spend. AND they will. Even with the coming recession. 

Their coming announcement out yest for the 2020 profit has been delayed approx 1 month and will be announced at the beginning of Sept. 

In it expect the usual #covid19 response that other companies will announce but in it also will be the nuggets of truth around what direction SKC will take us over the next few years of rebuilding. 

Just as an addendum: I believe you - businesses - have to treat #covid19 as another business. With all its competitive natures currently to the fore. Only then will you begin to spud off new shoots and grow again. 




Sky City Entertainment Group @ Share Investor

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Discuss SKC @ Share Investor Forum