Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Mixed Retail Outlook



Recent announcements by retailers Briscoe Group Ltd [BGR.NZX] Kathmandu Holding Ltd [KMD.NZX] and Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd [HLG.NZX] has got me thinking about the fortunes or otherwise of the other retailers in the Share Investor Portfolio.
Briscoes had a mild upswing in sales for the last half year to 1 August 2010 but in the last quarter of that half sales were down on the same period in 2009. This clearly indicates that the economy is not well at all. Kathmandu over-promised in their IPO Prospectus and last week delivered under par sales revenue. They cited a poor overall retail environment for the gap between their promises and last weeks reality.

Hallenstein Glasson had a different story to tell however with a sizable lift in projected profit for 2010 when compared to the same period in 2009 and a reasonable lift in sales considering the current poor retail environment. This is of course off a reasonably poor 2009 profit but the company is showing promise in a time of closed consumer wallets by concentrating on all important margins, avoiding frequent sales and keeping down costs. All the things the aforementioned seem to be ignoring - with the exception of BGR on costs.

The Warehouse Group Ltd [WHS.NZX] I suspect is going to have disappointing results coming up in September and Postie Plus Group [PPG.NZX] is likely to similarly disappoint the market - nothing new there then.

With the exception of expenses incurred from thus far failed attempts by Michael Hill International [MHI.NZX] and Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL.NZX] to expand in North America I think those two companies will see some improvement.

Retail successes over the last year seem to be concentrated on the specialist retailers who have a loyal following of their strong brands rather than the larger broad based "department store" type operators. They seem to have been able to cuts costs in the lean times in a more expeditious manner than their bigger competitors and keeping costs down, while attracting higher margin custom in this recession is key to staying in business.

You simply cant make money by selling stuff too cheaply just to get rid off it.


Disc I own BGR, HLG, MHI, PPL, PPG & WHS shares in the Share Investor Portfolio


Briscoe Group @ Share Investor


Long Term View: Briscoe Group Ltd
Briscoe's Cash worth looking at
Why did you buy that stock? [Briscoe Group]

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Hallenstein Glasson @ Share Investor

Long Term View: Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
The History Of: Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
Hallenstein Guidance not indicative of wider retail recovery
Stock of the Week: Hallenstein Glasson
Hallenstein Glasson Australian expansion needs expert execution
Why did you buy that stock? [Hallenstein Glasson]

Discuss HLG @ Share Investor Forum

Download HLG Company Reports
Download HLG Company History


Kathmandu @ Share Investor


Chart of the Day: Kathmandu Holdings Ltd
Kathmandu Holdings: Market Update Misleads
Kathmandu's 2011 Results Under Pressure from Jan Cameron
Kathmandu IPO: Prospectus Analysis
Kathmandu IPO: Jan Cameron lands a blow to IPO
Kathmandu IPO: What is it worth?
Kathmandu IPO: Retail Interest HighKathmandu IPO: A tough mountain to climb
Kathmandu No.1 but IPO should get the Bullet
Download the detailed Kathmandu Value Cruncher Report - Requires free registration at Share Investor Forum to download
Download Kathmandu IPO Prospectus
KMD Investor Presentation to Macquarie

Discuss Kathmandu @ Share Investor Forum
Download KMD Company Reports


Michael Hill International @ Share Investor


Long Term View: Michael Hill International Ltd
Michael Hill International: 2010 half year profit commentary
Michael Hill Makeover kicks off
Michael Hill International: 2009 full year profit commentary
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Discuss MHI @ Share Investor Forum
Download MHI Company Reports

Postie Plus Group @ Share Investor

Long Term View: Postie Plus Group Ltd
I'm Buying: Redux
What is Jan Cameron up to?
Whats on Rod Duke's shopping list?

Discuss PPG @ Share Investor Forum
Download PPG Company Reports

Pumpkin Patch @ Share Investor

Pumpkin Patch Ltd move downmarket
Long Term View: Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Pumpkin Patch's North American Downsizing a Prudent move
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Long vs Short: Pumpkin Patch Ltd
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I'm buying
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Broker downgrades of PPL lack long term vision
Pumpkin's expansion comes at a cost
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Pumpkin Patch profits flatten
New Zealand Retailers ring up costs not tills

Discuss PPL @ Share Investor Forum
Download PPL Company Reports


The Warehouse Group @ Share Investor


Share Investor Q & A: Questions to The Warehouse' CEO Ian Morrice
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History of Warehouse takeover players suggest a long winding road
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WHS Court of Appeal case could be dismissed next week
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The Warehouse in play
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The fight for control begins soon

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Download WHS company reports

Shop online at The Warehouse



Think Bigger: How to Raise Your Expectations and Achieve Everything

Think Bigger: How to Raise Your Expectations and Achieve Everything by Michael Hill 




c Share Investor 2010