Tuesday, December 17, 2019

Share Investor's 2020 Stock Picks ;)



We have cut back on expense for next years "pick".

Welcome back to the stock picking monkey for 2020's.

This years picking is a little diff in that there will be no stock picks.

It has kind of run its course and ill tell you why if you be so kind to listen.

What is a stock pick but really an advert for yourself to pick whatever you want based on various methods.

I don't want to do that anymore, I see it as not helpful at all.

I would rather you pick the stock based on what you have learnt either through me or some other means.

The following para is an addendum. 

Except perhaps one stock - ill let you do the research - which I see as highly undervalued and that is where perhaps stock pickers come into their own picking undervalued stocks. I am going to pick one. Sky City Entertainment. It is ripe for the picking. Anything that you can buy at less than $4 is a steal. Hope I picked well Cameron Boyd ;0

So let me finish this year by thanking everyone for joining up at Share Investor and Ill finish on about what might happen next year. 

I see President Trump playing a big part in many portfolios - surprise, surprise.

I see the NZ dollar weaken.

I see bull markets to continue based on what we know so far and other indicators that are too numerous to mention.

I see interest rates drift lower (see above)

I see oil start to rise.

Gold the same.

Property in Auckland - rise. (Any monkey can pick that!)


Love as always to Soph & Jacks  💓



Share Investor's Annual Stock Picks





Share Investor  2019

Wednesday, November 20, 2019

Buy For Yield!!




Like some of my stocks have gone up WAY out of proportion to their "importance" but one stock that I recently said sell I have to now give a buy because it has come down in price for one reason and that is because of the Tiwai Point fiasco

It came down from the early 9's to the mid 6's and dropping. 

i wouldn't be at all surprised to see it cross the ditch to land up in the high 5's.

Paying almost 6% net at current prices - not forecast to lower this years payout - this one is a steal right now. 

You could get it cheaper but history says you might not - especially given today's low interest rates.

For seasoned short term sellers and long term holders.



CEN @ Share Investor

Contact Energy: Buy for Yield
Contact Energy: Time to Sell
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy 13
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy 12
Share Investor's 2019 Stock Picks

 2018 Share Investor Stock Picks
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy 
11
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy 10
Contact Energy: Buy Now!
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 8
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 7
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 6
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 5 
Contact Energy look set to gain customers
I'm Buying: Contact Energy Ltd
Share Investor Portfolio 2: Value @ 7 July 2011
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 4
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 3
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 2
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd
Stock of the Week - Reprise 5: Contact Energy Ltd
Origin Energy asset stripping Contact Energy
Stock of the Week - Reprise 4: Contact Energy Ltd
Stock of the Week - Reprise 3: Contact Energy Ltd
Long Term View: Contact Energy Ltd
Stock of the Week: Reprise 2 - Contact Energy
Stock of the Week: Reprise - Contact Energy 
Not so fast Davy Boy
Still Watching Contact Energy
Beam me up Davy
Stock of the Week: Contact Energy
MarketWatch: Contact Energy - June 2009
MarketWatch: Contact Energy - Jan 2009
Contact Energy looks bright during dark times
Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks
Follow the Monopoly Board

Discuss this stock at Share Investor  






c Share Investor 2019

Wednesday, October 30, 2019

Fisher and Paykel Healthcare Group: Sell


With the prospect of this stock ticking over to $20 and providing the portfolio a ten bagger - minus divs over 8/16 years. Fisher and Paykel Healthcare is getting more than a bit too expensive.

It currently sits at a tad over a 51 P.E. - which is too expensive but its holding up because it hasn't disappointed the market for about 7 years and look set to continue this stellar run for many more years but there is one thing that would stop this baby from climbing. I've said it before, ill say it again. A rise in the KIWI/US dollar.

Every 1 cent diff is $3m NZ +/- . So it is not insignificant the machinations between these two highly traded currencies because most of FPH business is done in the US dollar. 

Added to this is the prospect one day and it will happen, FPH will have a bad year. Everyone is aware of this but nobody will bat an eyelid as this thing lurches from one high to the next the plain fact is this is highly susceptible to a re - rating should FPH step out of line - it has happened once before since listing in 2001.

When this happens - because any downside will be temporary - is the time to cut the profits elsewhere in your portfolio and plunk as much down as you can on this one.

FPH has patents right up the wazoo and will be busy fulfilling these. They currently employ up to $NZ125m a year next year or 9% of turnover on research and development so that patent Que is is only going to get bigger.

I will not be selling the large number of shares that I hold.

If I do ill tell ya.



Fisher & Paykel Healthcare @ Share Investor

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd: Where is it Going?
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd:  Should I Buy Now?
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd: The Time to Buy
Share Investor's 2012 Stock Picks
Global Market Sell-Off Stocks: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Resmed takes market share from Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Resmed kicking Fisher & Paykel Heathcares butt?
Share Price Alert: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd
I'm Buying: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd
Share Investor's Total Returns: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd
Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks
Stock of the Week: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare & the US Dollar
Mondrian Investment Partners take stake in Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare: 2010 Full Year Profit rests on Foreign exchange movement
Long Term View: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Stock of the Week: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Analysis - Fisher & Paykel Healthcare: FY Profit to 31/03/09
Schroder Investment Management takes big Fisher & Paykel Healthcare stake
Long VS Short: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Big Fisher & Paykel Healthcare trades a curious tale

Why did you buy that stock? [Fisher & Paykel Healthcare]
Drinking and Trading
Share Investor's 2008 stock picks
Share Investor's 2009 stock picks
Fisher & Paykel: A tale of two companies
FPH downgrade masks good performance

Discuss Fisher & Paykel Healthcare @ Share Investor 







Share Investor 2019

Friday, October 25, 2019

Contact Energy: Buy for Yield





Last time we talked about this one it was selling at about $7.50   Little did I know about it when I wrote about it in June that yesterday it was trading at $7.68.

It has traded at a high of $9.05c and was savaged recently when Rio Tinto decided it was going too do its semi annual raid of the taxpayer dollar by sticking its hand out - BUT quite rightly Labour said NO.

That is the ONLY thing this writer sees fit that Labour have done.

It is paying a good dividend of 5.7% which is forecast to stand still next year. Pretty good return when compared with a 2.5% gain in the bank.

I know I said sell before but I have changed my mind.

With CEN only supplying 10% of the power to Tiwai Point (the smelter) that lot should be gobbled up pretty quickly should the padlocks need to come out for Rio Tinto. It means Contact Energy will not have to spend as big for many many years on new power sources.

But there will a few casualties if Rio decide to go - those with high debt may need to start looking around for cheaper rates.

You would do well to have a few thousand of these to pay the power bill every year.




c Share Investor 2019



Wednesday, September 4, 2019

It's all about the Return


Image result for investment returns in a inflation cartoons

It's all about the return.

After real estate, for better or for worse, the NO 2 investment is the stockmarket.

But what we have here is diff - I changed what I was going to talk about after a well earned nap.

We have interest rates at an ALL TIME LOW.

When you change something so fundamental - forget the reason why they "had" to change - to the structure of the economy you are going to get distortions.

In this case your going to get assets - and having a share is an asset - priced way ahead of where they actually should be.

But that's normal now.

So what I'm saying is.

Until this all comes crashing down - who knows it could be right now - then rightly or wrongly. And I would say wrongly. Your just going to get the housing market - sorry to Kirsty Merriman for this one - and the sharemarket will follow. Until the last 10th of a percentage point I fear is going to be wrung out of those.

So your Meridian Energy your Contact Energy everything with a return will get hammered up and up.

When do I get out? If your me I wouldn't be too concerned.

But what goes up eventually settles down to somewhere more manageable.

I leave the rest for up to you to decide.







c Share Investor 2019




Wednesday, July 24, 2019

Never Mind the width feel the Quality

 Technical Analysis Chart | MarketScreener


There's no doubt about it the market always tells us where we are headed. At the moment that direction is up and it will continue to go up as long as 2 things remain the same. One is Central Bank interference in the interest rates as we plumb the depths of rates or what will be known the great Central Bank boom followed by ? 

The second is what the earnings of each company are.

As a whole these earnings remain high and do so to in New Zealand with the first company which is Sky City due to kick it all off in the second week of August.

With SKC paying slightly better than 5% pa its a must that these earnings stay above the proceeding year, least companies disappoint and are caned at the final arbiter - the market.

Its looking good - up up up - for the electricity retailers like CEN MEL MCY et al and for every stock on the Share Investor Portfolio.

I cant see a black cloud on the horizon anywhere - besides out the window - and i see the following 3-4 month's of results to be up on last year - save AIR and a few others.

Very few will disappoint.

You just have to wait for the ?




c Share Investor 2019

Friday, June 7, 2019

Contact Energy: Time to Sell



Contact Energy is a stock that we visited here around about 4 weeks ago.

It was under $7 and that has changed and done what I said it has gone and packed on about 8% to close at $7.50.

This has passed my comfort levels and I would rate it a sell.

It could go UP from these levels.

BUT I am keeping my shareholding as I said Im a long termer and I can think of no better place to park my money.

It's paying around 4.5 %.



CEN @ Share Investor


Share Price Alert: Contact Energy 13
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy 12

Share Investor's 2019 Stock Picks

 2018 Share Investor Stock Picks
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy 
11
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy 10
Contact Energy: Buy Now!
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 8
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 7
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 6
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 5 
Contact Energy look set to gain customers
I'm Buying: Contact Energy Ltd
Share Investor Portfolio 2: Value @ 7 July 2011
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 4
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 3
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 2
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd
Stock of the Week - Reprise 5: Contact Energy Ltd
Origin Energy asset stripping Contact Energy
Stock of the Week - Reprise 4: Contact Energy Ltd
Stock of the Week - Reprise 3: Contact Energy Ltd
Long Term View: Contact Energy Ltd
Stock of the Week: Reprise 2 - Contact Energy
Stock of the Week: Reprise - Contact Energy 
Not so fast Davy Boy
Still Watching Contact Energy
Beam me up Davy
Stock of the Week: Contact Energy
MarketWatch: Contact Energy - June 2009
MarketWatch: Contact Energy - Jan 2009
Contact Energy looks bright during dark times
Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks
Follow the Monopoly Board

Discuss this stock at Share Investor  






c Share Investor 2019


















Wednesday, May 8, 2019

Contact Energy: Buy Now!!!





No upgrade to the price merely a reiteration to get in and buy this, now.

Because if you have heard New Zealand is perched on the precipice of 1.5%pa OCR and CEN is set to benefit from that rate cut and others to come.

Pensioners if your reading this, get out of that term deposit and into some CEN shares. 

Get out and DYOR BUT you can go past this one.

Its earns 5% don't you know.

There's at least a 20'c dividend due in August.




CEN @ Share Investor

Share Price Alert: Contact Energy 13
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy 12

Share Investor's 2019 Stock Picks

 2018 Share Investor Stock Picks
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy 
11
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy 10
Contact Energy: Buy Now!
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 8
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 7
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 6
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 5 
Contact Energy look set to gain customers
I'm Buying: Contact Energy Ltd
Share Investor Portfolio 2: Value @ 7 July 2011
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 4
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 3
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 2
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd
Stock of the Week - Reprise 5: Contact Energy Ltd
Origin Energy asset stripping Contact Energy
Stock of the Week - Reprise 4: Contact Energy Ltd
Stock of the Week - Reprise 3: Contact Energy Ltd
Long Term View: Contact Energy Ltd
Stock of the Week: Reprise 2 - Contact Energy
Stock of the Week: Reprise - Contact Energy 
Not so fast Davy Boy
Still Watching Contact Energy
Beam me up Davy
Stock of the Week: Contact Energy
MarketWatch: Contact Energy - June 2009
MarketWatch: Contact Energy - Jan 2009
Contact Energy looks bright during dark times
Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks
Follow the Monopoly Board

Discuss this stock at Share Investor
  






c Share Investor 2019