Wednesday, October 30, 2019

Fisher and Paykel Healthcare Group: Sell


With the prospect of this stock ticking over to $20 and providing the portfolio a ten bagger - minus divs over 8/16 years. Fisher and Paykel Healthcare is getting more than a bit too expensive.

It currently sits at a tad over a 51 P.E. - which is too expensive but its holding up because it hasn't disappointed the market for about 7 years and look set to continue this stellar run for many more years but there is one thing that would stop this baby from climbing. I've said it before, ill say it again. A rise in the KIWI/US dollar.

Every 1 cent diff is $3m NZ +/- . So it is not insignificant the machinations between these two highly traded currencies because most of FPH business is done in the US dollar. 

Added to this is the prospect one day and it will happen, FPH will have a bad year. Everyone is aware of this but nobody will bat an eyelid as this thing lurches from one high to the next the plain fact is this is highly susceptible to a re - rating should FPH step out of line - it has happened once before since listing in 2001.

When this happens - because any downside will be temporary - is the time to cut the profits elsewhere in your portfolio and plunk as much down as you can on this one.

FPH has patents right up the wazoo and will be busy fulfilling these. They currently employ up to $NZ125m a year next year or 9% of turnover on research and development so that patent Que is is only going to get bigger.

I will not be selling the large number of shares that I hold.

If I do ill tell ya.



Fisher & Paykel Healthcare @ Share Investor

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd: Where is it Going?
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Resmed takes market share from Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Resmed kicking Fisher & Paykel Heathcares butt?
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Drinking and Trading
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Share Investor's 2009 stock picks
Fisher & Paykel: A tale of two companies
FPH downgrade masks good performance

Discuss Fisher & Paykel Healthcare @ Share Investor 







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Friday, October 25, 2019

Contact Energy: Buy for Yield





Last time we talked about this one it was selling at about $7.50   Little did I know about it when I wrote about it in June that yesterday it was trading at $7.68.

It has traded at a high of $9.05c and was savaged recently when Rio Tinto decided it was going too do its semi annual raid of the taxpayer dollar by sticking its hand out - BUT quite rightly Labour said NO.

That is the ONLY thing this writer sees fit that Labour have done.

It is paying a good dividend of 5.7% which is forecast to stand still next year. Pretty good return when compared with a 2.5% gain in the bank.

I know I said sell before but I have changed my mind.

With CEN only supplying 10% of the power to Tiwai Point (the smelter) that lot should be gobbled up pretty quickly should the padlocks need to come out for Rio Tinto. It means Contact Energy will not have to spend as big for many many years on new power sources.

But there will a few casualties if Rio decide to go - those with high debt may need to start looking around for cheaper rates.

You would do well to have a few thousand of these to pay the power bill every year.




c Share Investor 2019



Wednesday, September 4, 2019

It's all about the Return


Image result for investment returns in a inflation cartoons

It's all about the return.

After real estate, for better or for worse, the NO 2 investment is the stockmarket.

But what we have here is diff - I changed what I was going to talk about after a well earned nap.

We have interest rates at an ALL TIME LOW.

When you change something so fundamental - forget the reason why they "had" to change - to the structure of the economy you are going to get distortions.

In this case your going to get assets - and having a share is an asset - priced way ahead of where they actually should be.

But that's normal now.

So what I'm saying is.

Until this all comes crashing down - who knows it could be right now - then rightly or wrongly. And I would say wrongly. Your just going to get the housing market - sorry to Kirsty Merriman for this one - and the sharemarket will follow. Until the last 10th of a percentage point I fear is going to be wrung out of those.

So your Meridian Energy your Contact Energy everything with a return will get hammered up and up.

When do I get out? If your me I wouldn't be too concerned.

But what goes up eventually settles down to somewhere more manageable.

I leave the rest for up to you to decide.







c Share Investor 2019




Wednesday, July 24, 2019

Never Mind the width feel the Quality

 Technical Analysis Chart | MarketScreener


There's no doubt about it the market always tells us where we are headed. At the moment that direction is up and it will continue to go up as long as 2 things remain the same. One is Central Bank interference in the interest rates as we plumb the depths of rates or what will be known the great Central Bank boom followed by ? 

The second is what the earnings of each company are.

As a whole these earnings remain high and do so to in New Zealand with the first company which is Sky City due to kick it all off in the second week of August.

With SKC paying slightly better than 5% pa its a must that these earnings stay above the proceeding year, least companies disappoint and are caned at the final arbiter - the market.

Its looking good - up up up - for the electricity retailers like CEN MEL MCY et al and for every stock on the Share Investor Portfolio.

I cant see a black cloud on the horizon anywhere - besides out the window - and i see the following 3-4 month's of results to be up on last year - save AIR and a few others.

Very few will disappoint.

You just have to wait for the ?




c Share Investor 2019

Friday, June 7, 2019

Contact Energy: Time to Sell



Contact Energy is a stock that we visited here around about 4 weeks ago.

It was under $7 and that has changed and done what I said it has gone and packed on about 8% to close at $7.50.

This has passed my comfort levels and I would rate it a sell.

It could go UP from these levels.

BUT I am keeping my shareholding as I said Im a long termer and I can think of no better place to park my money.

It's paying around 4.5 %.



CEN @ Share Investor


Share Price Alert: Contact Energy 13
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy 12

Share Investor's 2019 Stock Picks

 2018 Share Investor Stock Picks
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy 
11
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy 10
Contact Energy: Buy Now!
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Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 7
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I'm Buying: Contact Energy Ltd
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Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 4
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Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 2
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MarketWatch: Contact Energy - June 2009
MarketWatch: Contact Energy - Jan 2009
Contact Energy looks bright during dark times
Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks
Follow the Monopoly Board

Discuss this stock at Share Investor  






c Share Investor 2019


















Wednesday, May 8, 2019

Contact Energy: Buy Now!!!





No upgrade to the price merely a reiteration to get in and buy this, now.

Because if you have heard New Zealand is perched on the precipice of 1.5%pa OCR and CEN is set to benefit from that rate cut and others to come.

Pensioners if your reading this, get out of that term deposit and into some CEN shares. 

Get out and DYOR BUT you can go past this one.

Its earns 5% don't you know.

There's at least a 20'c dividend due in August.




CEN @ Share Investor

Share Price Alert: Contact Energy 13
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy 12

Share Investor's 2019 Stock Picks

 2018 Share Investor Stock Picks
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy 
11
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy 10
Contact Energy: Buy Now!
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 8
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 7
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 6
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 5 
Contact Energy look set to gain customers
I'm Buying: Contact Energy Ltd
Share Investor Portfolio 2: Value @ 7 July 2011
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 4
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 3
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 2
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd
Stock of the Week - Reprise 5: Contact Energy Ltd
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Stock of the Week - Reprise 4: Contact Energy Ltd
Stock of the Week - Reprise 3: Contact Energy Ltd
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Stock of the Week: Reprise 2 - Contact Energy
Stock of the Week: Reprise - Contact Energy 
Not so fast Davy Boy
Still Watching Contact Energy
Beam me up Davy
Stock of the Week: Contact Energy
MarketWatch: Contact Energy - June 2009
MarketWatch: Contact Energy - Jan 2009
Contact Energy looks bright during dark times
Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks
Follow the Monopoly Board

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c Share Investor 2019


Monday, April 15, 2019

Hallenstein Glasson Holdings: Winter Surprise?




Hallenstein Glasson last recommended here in Jan has taken the 20 net div off and retreated somewhat in its share price.

I cant work out what this share is going to do in terms of share price except to say ill give you some of my feelings on the matter if you were going to buy this company right now.

The all important US/kiwi cross is about the same, inventory is crisp and buying is on key.

What is not apparent, yet, is what the consumer is going to do, and how that will develop along with winter temps.

Hallensteins has been hurt before by mild winters, so what is needed by the group to get the ultimate shot is a good winter all over the country AND it has happened before.

So as far as the winter is going, well it is starting to look good. It is getting cooler than usual for this time of year - in Albany.

Where does that leave the share prince for an opening?

Well I am picking weakness - not unusual for this time of year - so a pull back to the early $4.20's wouldn't be a surprise and if there's anything unusual going on, HLG management will bluntly let us know, they always do.

Either way don't forget that this is the number 1 payer of divs on the NZX. Currently paying over 9 % pa net.

AND its showing a lot more buying interest over the last year - a lot.

Trade/Invest wisely.



Hallenstein Glasson @ Share Investor


Hallenstein Glasson: Buy
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Share Price Alert: Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd 2
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Saturday, April 13, 2019

Right Now Its all about the Dividend

Image result for Right Now Its all about the Dividend

Well I am a simple guy.

Simple things follow me around.

A like simple cars, simple food, a simple place to lay my head, a simple woman (mmwwhh) and a simple place to park my money.

With the money thing in mind let me tell you it has been quite easy to do - I have gotten where i want to go and am living comfortably off on my dividends.

I have gotten to this point by working hard and buying stocks at the right prices at the right time and by keeping them forever.

You must never touch the source of the dividends. Never.

I had a life changing incident that happened over 7 years ago and this kind of coincided with the beginnings of bull runs - that still haven't ended - all around the planet and luckily matched my criteria for buying shares and I bought a lot.  

How did a bloke who has enjoyed a lot of his life, got divorced, got lawyers involved in his private life managed to be in the envious position of not having to work if he doesn't want to - I don't see that happening really - and is about to make a leap into the "unknown"? Well it was kind of "planned" that way.

Like most human beings I think i'm basically a lazy person. So everything from the age of 30 right up until I was a father in my 40's was working.

Really stepping into my investing life once again everything has been engineered or "planned" in that way. I always looked for good dividend paying stocks - after making a few pratfalls along the way - and over the years those have paid off big time. 

There has been much writing done throughout this blog about my style of investing but its basically buy a great company at the right price and keep your eyes on it.

I only own 8 companies on the NZX.

That sort of brings me back to right now.

You have to maintain that discipline, especially when you are paying a higher price -remember your money isn't going to get a better return than the stock market.

Right now, I don't see any other sort of investment that is going to return more money to you now than a great company on the NZX - and you can include other borses as well. There are still 1 or 2 companies around now that are paying good divs or will be in a good position to pay far higher divs in the future and I have some now!!

And until something goes uncontrollably wrong - like interest rates creep up. Little is going to happen. I say little because you can never be to sure whats around the corner.

AND of course 5 years down the track you will be saying what did that bloke say again?

Invest/trade wisely.




c Share Investor 2019











Saturday, March 30, 2019

Share Price Alert : Contact Energy 14




My pick for the 20 Feb was this one and its just about to pass the $7 mark - its @ $6.94c - which it is what I said was the mark to look at selling.

Which I have yesterday with a small portion.

BUT what I didn't count on was this, the continuation of the low, low interest rates that continue to haunt the globe - I don't agree with this but that is another story for another day.

Interest rates look to be on hold or indeed downwards. What do investors need and in fact what they did do this week? They bought stock on the NZX. Not just Contact Energy but many of the other energy retailers and anything else with a financial pulse. In fact the NZX finished the quarter on an all-time high.

My guess is that they will continue to buy this stock in particular because it has a return of just over 5% and looks set for a bigger return this Aug when they will report a big one, no doubt, along with a 20c DIV.

So even though I initially said now was a time to think of selling what happened this week to interest rates for me would add another 50c or so to bring my price to $7.50.

Get out at that price if you will or continue to hold, like me AND collect the DIVS.

AND remember these low interest rates are set to continue for at least 2 years.

Invest/trade wisely!!!



CEN @ Share Investor

Share Price Alert: Contact Energy 12

Share Investor's 2019 Stock Picks 
2018 Share Investor Stock Picks
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy 11

Share Price Alert: Contact Energy 10
Contact Energy: Buy Now!
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 8
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 7
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Contact Energy look set to gain customers
I'm Buying: Contact Energy Ltd
Share Investor Portfolio 2: Value @ 7 July 2011
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 4
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Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 2
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Still Watching Contact Energy
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Stock of the Week: Contact Energy
MarketWatch: Contact Energy - June 2009
MarketWatch: Contact Energy - Jan 2009
Contact Energy looks bright during dark times
Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks
Follow the Monopoly Board

Discuss this stock at Share Investor  





c Share Investor 2019