Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks

Read the latest - Share Investor's 2010 Stock Picks

It is that time of the year to pick stocks for 2009.

In the face of a global recession, an uncertain economic future and dwindling values, even for good assets, it is going to be hard to pick winners.

Please keep in mind dear readers that the picks are my own and they reflect my investment philosophy and not necessarily anyone else's.

My picks are based on a long-term view, regardless of the current short to medium term market turmoil and economic uncertainty.

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare [FPH:NZ]

With that in mind I will kick off my picks with a company that I consider will be one of the big successes of the next 5-10 years, Fisher and Paykel Healthcare, the health care products provider.

I had it as a pick for 2008 and it has been one of the better performers this year, even though it is still well off its highs share price wise.

Company profit forecasts to March 31 2009 have been estimated at NZ$84 million and revenue is also set to grow as it has done for the past.

Fisher profits are largely immune from the current market turmoil as buyers simply have to have the products that the health care company makes regardless of a global recession.

This invincibility from outside economic influences makes the pick for my next stock a relative no-brainer.

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare financial data

Fisher & Paykel @ Share Investor

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FPH downgrade masks good performance

Ryman Healthcare [RYM:NZ]

Ryman Healthcare, the retirement home operator, carer and developer, has been increasing revenue and profit for many years and the most current profit result shows that there has been no let up in this trend with a rise of 10% to NZ$25.9 million.

Development of new villages has increased apace over the last year and there are at least half a dozen new ones ready to go at beginning 2009, including two massive villages at Orewa and Whangerei.

The long-term prospects for this company are excellent as New Zealands elderly are set to grow markedly in the future.

Metlifecare [MET:NZ], Rymans major listed competitor is also worth a look at for the same reasons as Ryman.

I have Metlifecare on my watchlist.

Ryman Healthcare financial data

Mainfreight Ltd [MFT:NZ]

Mainfreight Ltd, the New Zealand global logistics operator, have a goal of NZ$1 billion in revenue before 2010 and are only a gnats whisker short of that figure.

It is on my pick list again for 2009 as it is New Zealands best managed company and if management is good then results generally follow-this has been the history of the company thus far.

Currently business is experiencing a slow down, although profit was up nearly 10% in the last reporting period.

Management are going to approach the global market downturn with a "prudent, cautious approach to costs"-the status quo for the business since its inception.

Mainfreight Ltd financial data

Mainfreight @ Share Investor

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Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL.NZ]

One of the worst performing stocks of 2008 if you consider a 60% odd drop in share price this year and a drop of nearly 30% in full-year after tax profit to July 31 2008.

All is not lost though!

The company has great long-term potential, with excellent product a strong brand and very loyal customers and with the share price at just over a buck it is a relative bargain when one considers it was trading at nearly 5 dollars just over a year ago.

One to stock up on during price dips and it probably will when pre-Christmas sales figures come through during the beginning of 2009.

Pumpkin Patch Ltd financial data

Pumpkin Patch @ Share Investor

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New Zealand Retailers ring up costs not tills

Other quotable notables.

Telecom NZ [TEL:NZ] for its dividend. Buy around $2.

Contact Energy [CEN:NZ], Trustpower [TPW:NZ] and Vector[VCT:NZ] Any infrastructure company, especially these electricity companies are a good buy at any time but battered share prices are a good opportunity to stock up on more or make a first buy.

Auckland International Airport[AIA:NZ] A near monopoly with a beaten down stock price, buy on further weakness.

Westpac [WBC:NZ] and ANZ Bank [ANZ:NZ]. Good opportunities exist to buy at low stock prices.

If you have the nerve, any good company is going cheap in 2009 so there are plenty of companies worth buying.

Pick wisely!

Disclosure: I own RYM, FPH, PPL, AIA, and MFT shares

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c Share Investor 2008