Monday, April 24, 2017

Have Times Changed?

Image result for old vs new investors cartoon

It seems to me that since I have been invested in the market - 20 years this year with RBD as virginal player - that some things have changed but one thing has stayed the same. If you care to find out what has stayed the same you'll have to wait a tad - if you don't want to wait I don't care.

Go elsewhere.

It seems that people have just lost patience.

That is if people don't get what they want, when they want it they will simply just drop a stock - if it has a particularly tough time but is otherwise doing ok.

Now I haven't done a study into it, I'm just thinking as I put pen to paper but my take on this phenomenon is that it has some basis in fact.

You of course have the ideal institutional investors, like your ACC's and superannuation funds that have largely remained unchanged. They still have money in companies like FPH and MFT for the long term, regardless of short term fluctuations.

AND they are winners.

I'm talking about the individual investors such as myself, who because of technology and age - yes I'm aware that there are many investors far younger than me - are more aware of the ability because of the aforementioned tech and because of their changing investing personalities that are perhaps different from you and me - who may be a little older and think differently when it comes to investing.

Perhaps there's a wee bit of age differentiation from generation to generation and it happens naturally as we get older, we perhaps have different savings and investing goals than we did perhaps 20 years ago.

I don't know.

I didn't get my current investment profile straight away it was around 2007 that I starting reading books like Security Analysis and The Intelligent Investor that I formed the view - along with a hell of a lot of my own thinking - that the only form of investing that really mattered was long-term.

I think that this long-term/short-term thinking and its relevance to the current topic of conversation is the main rub - of sorts.

I still think investing has somewhat changed overall. The short term is, in my opinion a product of the internet and all that the internet has opened us up to the world - good and bad.

It just makes things faster.

AND don't you just love that word disruption.

Disruption to a business, it started with your Google's and has now upset the taxicab business, hotel business and on and on....

Everything seems to have changed to a more I want that now and if I can't have it now I don't want it.

To be fair there are those rarities who have got to the long-term investing thing so much earlier than I and they range across all ages.

I really havent changed much since 2002 when I bought the bulk of my portfolio.

What I am hoping to change is my reactions to what happens in the market - instead of reactions after the fact I want to react before they happen and that will mean watching closer than I have done before - if that's possible!

I finally have got rid of the WHS shares and it seems, while I reacted far too slowly, I reacted quickly enough to get a decent price. They are now selling for a lot less.

Like you're differences between the WHS and HLG. Hallensteins are making an impact online wearas The Warehouse seem to be all over the place with their offerings and barely make in impact.

Why is it that in a world of HLG vs WHS, why does HLG continue to innovate while the WHS remains stale and staid.

That perhaps a title of another column for another day.

Happy long term (and short term)investing.



Related Share Investor reading

For a taste of your Whisky

Some Bedtime Reading: Graham and Dodd's Security Analysis
10 Basic Buffett questions to ask before investing
Be an active investor
Stick to what you know
Investors can learn from my stupidity
Hard times make great businesses
Fear and Greed are lovely things
Research, Research, Research
Learn before you leap

The Intelligent Investor: Book review






The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) (Collins Business Essentials)The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) (Collins Business Essentials) by Benjamin Graham
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Thursday, April 20, 2017

The Warehouse Ltd: Time Ladies & Gentlemen

  Chart forWarehouse Group Ltd (The) (WHS.NZ)


Its time this company woke up well and truly and shook themselves into the real world. 


The Warehouse Group Ltd [WHS.NZX] is currently worth about $745 million dollars, some $250m less than when we last visited this on March 12.

At this rate the share price will collapse once it reaches that important psychological $2 mark.

Its not looking good for their next result in September and going out and selling their Newmarket property is just the last bastion to ward of the creditors.

Those at head office must be nervous - about what to sell next and about the reality of their situation that nobody wants to shop there and certainly nobody wants to invest in it.

No, not even those that own Farmers are interested anymore (at current prices) and are probably waiting for a spectacular collapse as we move closer to the September result.

I await with interest!



The Warehouse Group @ Share Investor

The Warehouse: Is it Time to Bow Out?
Share The Warehouse: What the Fuck is it Doing?
Share Investor Q & A: The Warehouse' Ian Morrice  
Share Investor Q & A: Questions to The Warehouse' Ian Morrice
Long Term View: The Warehouse Group Ltd
Share Investor Short: Warehouse Group yield worth a look
The Warehouse Group: 2010 Interim Profit Review
The Warehouse: Big Brands, Big Opportunities
Warehouse strike opportunity to buy
Long Term Play: The Warehouse Group
Share Investor Short: Warehouse Group yield worth a second look
Woolworths supermarket consolidation an indicator of a move on the Warehouse?
Stock of the Week: The Warehouse Group
Warehouse 2009 interim profit a key economic indicator
When will The Warehouse bidders make their move?
Long vs Short: The Warehouse Group
Warehouse bidders ready to lay money down
The Warehouse set to cut lose "extra" impediment
The Warehouse sale could hinge on "Extra" decision
The case for The Warehouse without a buyer
Foodstuffs take their foot off the gas
Woolworths seek leave to appeal to Supreme Court
Warehouse appeal decision imminent
Warehouse decision a loser for all
Warehouse Court of appeal decision in Commerce Commission's favour
MARKETWATCH: The Warehouse
The Warehouse takeover saga continues
Why did you buy that stock? [The Warehouse]
History of Warehouse takeover players suggest a long winding road
Court of Appeal delays Warehouse bid
The Warehouse set for turbulent 2008
The Warehouse Court of Appeal case lay in "Extras" hands
WHS Court of Appeal case could be dismissed next week
Commerce Commission impacts on the Warehouse bottom line
The Warehouse in play
Outcomes of Commerce Commission decision
The fight for control begins soon

Discuss WHS @ Share Investor Forum - Register free 
Download WHS company reports



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Thursday, April 13, 2017

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd: The Time to Buy



Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd [FPH.NZX] . If you are a regular reader of this blog over the last 10 years or just a recent convert you will know that I am in love with this stock.

I bought It over many years AND I bought it for a good price.

It currently returns well over 10% p/a and I expect it to increase substantially as the years tick over.

If you are a holder well done but if you're not when is a good time to buy?

My answer to this is not complicated. 

The first thing to remember is that I didn't buy the bulk of my holding until January 2012 and that was after having it on my watchlist for many years.

I bought, because the shares were good value - mainly due to the lower value of the kiwi/US dollar cross.

The lower it goes the less money Fisher & Paykel Healthcare make when it is converted back into kiwi dollars.

Unless there has been a drastic change in the structure of the dollar market this same effect will happen again - no matter how much Fisher & Paykel hedge against the US dollar.

This should have an impact on the share price.

Nothing wrong with the company just the relationship to its various branches - in this case the US one.




Fisher & Paykel Healthcare @ Share Investor

Share Investor's 2012 Stock Picks
Global Market Sell-Off Stocks: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Resmed takes market share from Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Resmed kicking Fisher & Paykel Heathcares butt?
Share Price Alert: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd
I'm Buying: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd
Share Investor's Total Returns: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd
Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks
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Mondrian Investment Partners take stake in Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare: 2010 Full Year Profit rests on Foreign exchange movement
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Stock of the Week: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Analysis - Fisher & Paykel Healthcare: FY Profit to 31/03/09
Schroder Investment Management takes big Fisher & Paykel Healthcare stake
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Big Fisher & Paykel Healthcare trades a curious tale
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Drinking and Trading
Share Investor's 2008 stock picks
Fisher & Paykel: A tale of two companies
FPH downgrade masks good performance

Discuss FPH @ Share Investor Forum
Download FPH Company Reports






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Tuesday, April 4, 2017

Share Price Alert: Port of Tauranga Ltd 3



Port of Tauranga Ltd [POT.NZX] looks like it's creeping towards the 4 buck range.

If you, like me, are watching this closely it looks like it could breach that magical 4 buck mark.

As I write shares are trading at $4.15 but have been lower today at $4.07.

No news out just trading for the sake of it.

In absence of bad news I might put a bid in at $3.95.

Better value than when we last looked at it on Feb 27.


POT @ Share Investor

POT: Is it Worth Getting Back In?
Port of Auckland Dispute:Time to Move On
Share Price Alert: Port of Tauranga Ltd 2 
Share Price Alert: Port of Tauranga Ltd
Long Term View: Port Of Tauranga Ltd
Port in a storm
Ports of Auckland put a shot over competitor's bow

Discuss POT @ Share Investor Forum
Download POT Company Reports





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Monday, April 3, 2017

Is Mainfreight Worth 30 Bucks Per Share?

Image result for 30 dollar note nz


Related image

I don't know about you but I have been watching the upwards trend in share price of Mainfeight Ltd [MFT.NZwith much interest.

First of all its no surprise to me why its up.

Its well run, self critical and critical of others where its business is being affected and very few announcements to the market.

Lets have a look at some essential figs.

2017

*Net Reported Profit  88 mil
*Price Earnings Ratio (P/E) 23.29
*Earnings per Share (EPS) 96.24
*Net Tangible Assets per share 329.21c
*Total Net Div Paid (last full financial year) 40c
*Div Yield 1.6%
*Market Cap 2,275,000,000



*2016

*Net Reported Profit   88 mil
*Price Earnings Ratio (P/E) 22.65
*Earnings per Share (EPS) 96.24
*Net Tangible Assets per share 329.21c
*Total Net Div Paid (last full financial year) 40c
*Div Yield 1.79%
*Market Cap 2,079,000,000

*Dec 30


2011

*Net Reported Profit  26 mil
*Price Earnings Ratio (P/E) 13.92 
*Earnings per Share (EPS) 47.88
*Net Tangible Assets per share 1.86
*Total Net Div Paid (last full financial year) 19c
*Div Yield 2.24%
*Market Cap 880,000,000


Source - Morningstar

Since Dec 30 2016 when the share price was $20.71 the share has packed on nearly 2 bucks to be trading at $22.60 currently.

It is trading at these record levels largely because of positive sentiment and it is because it is a great company.

I don't have any motivations either way, i'm keeping this stock until the day I die with a possible big payoff when the vultures circle and they will but either way I don't think it will be enough to tempt the heads of Mainfreight.

It certainly won't tempt me. You would have to be talking well north of $50 to get me to release these.

I'm enjoying this run and feel this May's profit announcement will be a stunner.

The global logistics biz can be a hard beast at the best of times but I feel - the second feel in as many sentences -  that Mainfreight have finally got their ducks in a row.

Can't wait until 30th May. 



Mainfreight @ Share Investor

Read the MFT 2011 FY Presentation

Is Mainfreight Worth 20 Bucks Plus a Share?
Share Price Alert: Mainfreight Ltd 2
Mainfreight's European Acquisition a Good Move
Share Price Alert: Mainfreight Ltd
Investing in the Stockmarket: Timing your Purchase
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Share Investor Interview: Mainfreight's MD Don Braid
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Why did you buy that stock? [Mainfreight Ltd]
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KiwiRail will cost Mainfreight
Mainfreight keeps on truckin
A rare breed
Share Investor's 2008 stock picks

Discuss MFT @ Share Investor Forum
Download Mainfreight Company Reports



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Tuesday, March 14, 2017

Auckland Airport: Its a Buy


Chart forAuckland International Airport Limited (AIA.NZ)

Auckland International Airport Ltd [AIA.NZX] is ripe for the picking of dividends right now.

The last day for qualifying is 21 March. The dividend is 10c per share and I obtained another 1000 for my short term portfolio to take me up to 2000 so far. 

Not really concerned about the really short term changes in the daily value and probably will release them for somebody else after the next profit announcement in August.

Will definitely release them when they get close to 8 bucks.

This really is a no brainer.

An excellent long term prospect and a good short term trade all day long.

AND, briefly AIA shares although might sort of wait a bit to see if it will go lower - this bit I wrote yesterday came true sooner than I thought and I bought them for $6.995.





AIA @ Share Investor

AIA: To Buy Now Or Not To ?
Share Investor Q & A: Auckland Airport's Simon Moutter
Auckland Council look set for a Auckland Airport Takeover
Auckland City Council new AIA Policy Doc
Make me an offer I cant refuse: Auckland International Airport Ltd
Long Term View: Auckland International Airport
VIDEO - Simon Moutter on Australian Airport Purchase
Auckland Airport Capital Raising a fair call
Auckland International Airport lands Australian Ports
What Infratil sale of Auckland Airport stake means
Is another Auckland Airport bid likely under a business friendly Government?
Latest Airport coverage
Cullen's move on Auckland Airport has far reaching effects
Cullen's move on AIA tax plan Anti-Business
AIA profit stays grounded
Softening opposition to CPPIB bid for AIA
Directors of AIA bribe brokers not to sell
What is Auckland Airport worth to you?
Second bite at AIA by CPPIB might just fly
AIA new directors must focus on shareholders
Auckland Airport merger deal nosedives
The Canadians have landed
AIA incentive scheme must fly out the window
Government market manipulation over AIA/DAE deal
DAE move on AIA: Will it fly?


Queenstown Airport Buyout @ Share Investor

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Queenstown Airport: AIA purchase good Long-Term but will cost shareholders Short-Term

Discuss this Stock @ Share Investor Forum - Register free 
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Sunday, March 12, 2017

The Warehouse: The Solution; Sell Sell Sell !!


Image result for the warehouse nz
Part The Warehouse team on the lawn at their head office in Akoranga Drive.
They needn't have 1200 working there though. 200 would be sufficient.

The Warehouse Group Ltd [WHS.NZX] was last visited on February 20th when it was trading at $2.64c.

I sold 4900 shares on Friday March 10 for a loss of about $2000 at a consideration of $12020. I kept 100 just for fun and to cause trouble if I want - it could sell one day.

While a teeny tiny part of my portfolio, it kind of stuck in my craw a little bit. Having that Sword of Damocles hanging over me when I knew I should have walked away from it about 3-4 years ago.

Ill leave the woe is me I lost money on this one behind cause I left that particular kind of thing behind on Feb 6 2012 - except to say this money is destined for lawyers again because my Ex wife is being rather nasty with our child - should have followed my passion into the law cause my current lawyer has now got a vast amount of my money. 

Never fear.

Anyway.

What sort of psycho babble keeps a person holding onto a share when they know they should have sold some years ago?

I think it is fear. Fear that you made a mistake buying it in the first place. Fear that you held on for too long and fear that you finally have to crystallize your loses making it feel somehow real.

I don't feel that now though. I just feel relived. Relived that I have preserved some capital and I could pursue other purchases with it - briefly AIA shares although might sort of wait a bit to see if it will go lower.

Yeah, I think relief from the constant niggle in the back of my head that really should be rid of that little monster the WHS. 

I will give them 2 years. 

If they havent cleaned out head office of 800 folk and gotten rid of the hundred of lines of useless junk taking up space on their shelves - who the hell sells DVD'S these days - then they will be confined to history. 

Avoid at any cost.



The Warehouse Group @ Share Investor

The Warehouse: Is it Time to Bow Out?
Share The Warehouse: What the Fuck is it Doing?
Share Investor Q & A: The Warehouse' Ian Morrice  
Share Investor Q & A: Questions to The Warehouse' Ian Morrice
Long Term View: The Warehouse Group Ltd
Share Investor Short: Warehouse Group yield worth a look
The Warehouse Group: 2010 Interim Profit Review
The Warehouse: Big Brands, Big Opportunities
Warehouse strike opportunity to buy
Long Term Play: The Warehouse Group
Share Investor Short: Warehouse Group yield worth a second look
Woolworths supermarket consolidation an indicator of a move on the Warehouse?
Stock of the Week: The Warehouse Group
Warehouse 2009 interim profit a key economic indicator
When will The Warehouse bidders make their move?
Long vs Short: The Warehouse Group
Warehouse bidders ready to lay money down
The Warehouse set to cut lose "extra" impediment
The Warehouse sale could hinge on "Extra" decision
The case for The Warehouse without a buyer
Foodstuffs take their foot off the gas
Woolworths seek leave to appeal to Supreme Court
Warehouse appeal decision imminent
Warehouse decision a loser for all
Warehouse Court of appeal decision in Commerce Commission's favour
MARKETWATCH: The Warehouse
The Warehouse takeover saga continues
Why did you buy that stock? [The Warehouse]
History of Warehouse takeover players suggest a long winding road
Court of Appeal delays Warehouse bid
The Warehouse set for turbulent 2008
The Warehouse Court of Appeal case lay in "Extras" hands
WHS Court of Appeal case could be dismissed next week
Commerce Commission impacts on the Warehouse bottom line
The Warehouse in play
Outcomes of Commerce Commission decision
The fight for control begins soon

Discuss WHS @ Share Investor Forum - Register free 
Download WHS company reports



Security Analysis: Sixth Edition, Foreword by Warren Buffett (Security Analysis Prior Editions)Security Analysis: Sixth Edition, Foreword by Warren Buffett (Security Analysis Prior Editions) by Benjamin Graham
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