Mainfreight Ltd [MFT.NZX] has had a simply outstanding run in its share price over 2010 (see YTD chart above) and especially in the last month or so. The stock started 2010 at just over $5.55 and closed trading yesterday at $7.96. The last month has seen the stock rise from $7.25. (see one month chart below)It has come off a low of $3.25 in early 2009.
The stock is now back at levels that it was trading in early 2007 (see five year chart below) and few NZX stocks have managed to do that pre the October 2008 stockmarket crash.
I bought my initial shareholding at $7.96 and $8 4 years ago (clearly picked the wrong time there) and my most recent addition in 2009 for $4.20. To me it looks like the stock price has run away with itself.
The company has largely recovered from the recession but we will have to see a couple of years of sustained growth before the expectations of the market match the share price.
Beware before you buy !
I see good long-term value based on the current share price, otherwise I wouldn't have bought it at its peak 3 - 4 years ago (there was also a very big dividend involved in my buying that stock as well) but you could well get it cheaper at some stage during 2011 as the market realises it might well have overreacted.
Quality companies like this though always rise to the top.
Disc I own MFT shares in the Share Investor Portfolio
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