Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Is Mainfreight Worth Ten Bucks a Share?



Mainfreight Ltd [MFT.NZ]has had an absolute stellar ride share price wise over the last year.

Its share price has rise from around $6.25 a year ago to finish trading at $10.05 yesterday. An all-time high. Since March alone the share price has risen around 25% from 8 bucks, 80c of that alone happening over the last 5 trading days.

An investor will have to ask themselves, is this stock overvalued?

The answer for me is yes and no.

Looking at current financial's one would have to say the stock is way overvalued and I agree totally with this. You would have to be a knuckle dragging moron or a dribbling socialist to believe otherwise:

*Price Earnings Ratio (P/E) 38.480
*Earnings per Share (EPS) 0.261
*Net Tangible Assets per share 1.864
*Total Net Div Paid (last full financial year) 0.190
*Div Yield 2.70%
*Market Cap 989,615,360

If one looks at the past history of the company though and its track record of ever increasing revenue and profits - save for the last 2 years during the global economic downturn - one would have to consider that the current share price is one that reflects that past and the market clearly sees potential for more of that historical upside for the future - as do I.

Of course the returns for investors buying at these prices are going to be relatively low - at less than 3% net annually - so buying now at the current share price runs the risk that if and probably when the company doesn't live up to the market's expectations the share price is going to be hammered. This is of course a short term thing, every company has ups and downs and will have disappointing years but with Mainfreight's long positive track record through wise business management and capital use the company is more likely to run the way it always has.

At over $10 per share most investors will see this company as "expensive" but that price is just a reflection of how well management have run the company, especially over the last 2-3 years,which are probably the toughest it has ever encountered.

The caution here is that there is alot of positive market sentiment built into the MFT share price and for good reason, and there probably will be a pullback at some stage but there are good reasons as to why the share price is where it is.

If you are a short term investor stay away from this company, you will get burnt at the current share price. If you are thinking long term, just be patient, the share price will retreat at some stage.


Disc I own MFT shares in the Share Investor Portfolio


Mainfreight @ Share Investor

Read the MFT 2011 FY Presentation

Share Price Alert: Mainfreight Ltd 2
Mainfreight's European Acquisition a Good Move
Share Price Alert: Mainfreight Ltd
Investing in the Stockmarket: Timing your Purchase
Stock of the Week: Mainfreight Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd: 2011 1st quarter Profit Analysis
VIDEO: Don Braid with Paul Homes on the Economy
Mainfreight Ltd: Full Year 2010 Profit Analysis
Long Term View: Mainfreight Ltd
Share Investor Interview: Mainfreight's MD Don Braid
Stock of the Week: Mainfreight Ltd
Questions to Mainfreight's MD Don Braid
I'm Buying: Mainfreight Management delivers the goods
Mainfreight Annual Report Packs a Punch
Analysis - Mainfreight Ltd: FY Profit to 31/03/09
Mainfreight VS KiwiRail: The Sequel
Long VS Short: Mainfreight Ltd
Why did you buy that stock? [Mainfreight Ltd]
Mainfreight 2008 Annual report worth reading
KiwiRail will cost Mainfreight
Mainfreight keeps on truckin
A rare breed
Share Investor's 2008 stock picks

Discuss MFT @ Share Investor Forum
Download Mainfreight Company Reports



From Fishpond.co.nz - Every Bastard Says No: The 42 Below Story





c Share Investor 2011

Share Investor's Total Returns: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd

I have written about returns for stocks on a general basis in the Long Term View series of posts and the Long VS Short series but in this series, Share Investor's Total Returns, I will be giving my actual returns for stocks in the Share Investor Portfolio for as long as I have held them.

The return calculation will include dividends earned along with qualifying tax credits and of course any capital increase in the share price. It will be a total return over the length of holding of the share expressed in overall dollar figures with an individual value per share of what the stock currently is held at.

The eight stock in this particular series is a long term star of the portfolio and one that I have held for 4 years, Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd [FPH.NZX]

The current holding of 5000 was kicked off by an initial purchase of 2000 in May 2007 and 3000 bought in June 2008.

The stock cost a total of $14490.00. It has returned net dividends of $2313.04 and total tax credits of $1129.24, with $60.00 in brokerage.

I am eligible for the full tax credit so if the gross dividend (net dividend plus tax credits)is added and brokerage taken off my full return over the total holding period of 4 years is $3382.28

The current capital value of the company in the Share Investor Portfolio as at 27 May 2011 is $14950.00 The capital loss therefore is $110.00. This gives a total return on this share of $3272.28. This is a 22.5% return over 4 years or a 5.62% gain per annum.

I hold FPH therefore at a total cost of $11277.72 or $2.25 per share.


Disc: I own FPH shares in the Share Investor Portfolio


Share Investor's Total Returns Series

Auckland International Airport Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Michael Hill International Ltd
Freightways Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
The Warehouse Group Ltd

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare @ Share Investor

Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks
Stock of the Week: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare & the US Dollar
Mondrian Investment Partners take stake in Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare: 2010 Full Year Profit rests on Foreign exchange movement
Long Term View: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Stock of the Week: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Analysis - Fisher & Paykel Healthcare: FY Profit to 31/03/09
Schroder Investment Management takes big Fisher & Paykel Healthcare stake
Long VS Short: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Big Fisher & Paykel Healthcare trades a curious tale
Why did you buy that stock? [Fisher & Paykel Healthcare]
Drinking and Trading
Share Investor's 2008 stock picks
Fisher & Paykel: A tale of two companies
FPH downgrade masks good performance

Discuss FPH @ Share Investor Forum
Download FPH Company Reports


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c Share Investor 2011

Monday, May 30, 2011

Share Price Alert: Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd 3



Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd [HLG.NZX] makes a third appearance in this series of posts for 2011.

The first inclusion discussed the share price falling due to a profit downgrade in January and included the rider that this fall in share price would go further and to buy on "inevitable weakness." The second post was included for much the same reason but at a lower share price than the first.

This came after a peak in share price back in September 2010 that led me to ask if I should sell.

Since the second post in March the share price rose from $3.63 to finish at $4.17 just last week.

Today the share price has taken a 20c hit to be trading intra-day at $3.95 as this piece comes to press on news of a weak trading update to the market.

Most retail stocks have suffered over the last few months, notably PPL - with the exception of BGR & MHI & WHS - and I expect HLG to fall further on negative sentiment related to the economy as a whole.

I will be taking more interest in this stock myself sub 3 bucks.

It is a great company with its crucial value indicators looking more and more attractive as the share price weakens:

Price Earnings Ratio (P/E) 13.62

Earnings per Share (EPS) 30.5c

Net Tangible Assets per share $.978

Total Net Div Paid (last full financial year) 31c

Gross Div Yield 10.67%


Once again buy on further weakness.


Disc I own HLG, BGR, MHI, WHS, PPL shares in the Share Investor Portfolio



Share Price Alert Series

Telecom New Zealand Ltd 4
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 3
Port of Tauranga Ltd
Freightways Ltd 3
Goodman Fielder Ltd 2
Freightways Ltd 2
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 2
Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Charlies Group Ltd
Fletcher Building Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd
Steel & Tube Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd
New Zealand Stock Exchange Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd 2
The Warehouse Group Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd 2
Fletcher Building Ltd
Restaurant Brands Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd
Tourism Holdings
Goodman Fielder Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
NZ Refining Ltd
Freightways Ltd
Xero Ltd


Hallenstein Glasson @ Share Investor

Share Price Alert: Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd 2
Share Price Alert: Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
Hallenstein Glassons Ltd: Should I stay or should I Go?
Mixed Retail Outlook
Long Term View: Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
The History Of: Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
Hallenstein Guidance not indicative of wider retail recovery
Stock of the Week: Hallenstein Glasson
Hallenstein Glasson Australian expansion needs expert execution
Why did you buy that stock? [Hallenstein Glasson]

Discuss HLG @ Share Investor Forum

Download HLG Company Reports
Download HLG Company History


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c Share Investor 2011

Telecom New Zealand Ltd: Chorus or Bust

Telecom New Zealand Ltd [TEL.NZX] has been in the news for the past week because the government has announced that they are going to be the company that will roll out the majority of the taxpayer subsidised Fast Fibre Network (FFN) that will apparently provide far greater speeds for our internet services than we currently have.

This means that Telecom NZ must split into two separate companies in order to satisfy the rules and regulations that government have set down for the implementation of the FFN.

This will mean that Chorus, the part of Telecom whose business it is to build and maintain telecommunications infrastructure for themselves and other players and its retail arm, Telecom Retail - the part of the company that most customers of Telecom deal directly with and where they buy their mobile, internet or fixed line products - must be split into two completely separate companies. This means separate listings on the stockmarket for both companies and a duplication of a whole host of management from the floor sweeper middle manager right up to the CEO.

Of course this means cost to separate and will be bourne by TEL shareholders in the first instance and customers through higher prices as a secondary affect of this.

Investors will of course be wondering to themselves, well which company of the two should I invest in and if I am already a TEL shareholder which stock should I ditch, if any?

In my humble and not so humble opinion I would put my money of the Chorus part of the business. It is the part of Telecom that has a huge monopoly through the domination of their telecommunications infrastructure - copper and fibre cable criss-crossing the country - and as I really love monopolies this part of the companies business will do well, especially as they appear to have a unregulated first 10 years where they can set prices and the only arbiter of consumer fairness will be the usually intemperate Commerce Commission.

While Telecom's retail division has a few million customers that the new Chorus will probably look after, competition in the telecoms retail area should eventually keep all important margins down from present levels and that will impact on the profitability of the new separate retail division of Telecom.

The split coming at the end of 2011 will mean investors in Telecom will receive stakes in the two new separate Telecom entities and will probably do well if they bought the companies shares at the right price.

It might be wise though for them to consider selling shares in the retail company and stock up on Chorus shares.

My pick is that Telecom will take this opportunity to ditch the Telecom name altogether, a name wrapped up in so much negative history that their retail business would do better to leave that all behind.

Judging by their recent logo shoosh-up it is bound to be something silly.

I'm picking Burst!


Telecom Split Details

Telecom Split

Telecom NZ @ Share Investor


Share Price Alert: Telecom New Zealand Ltd 4
Share Price Alert: Telecom New Zealand Ltd 3
Share Price Alert: Telecom New Zealand Ltd 2
Share Price Alert: Telecom New Zealand Ltd
Telecom New Zealand 2011 first half profit review
Telecom New Zealand 2011 first quarter profit review
Telecom Chart: Lazarus Recovery on lower volume
Telecom maybe oversold
Telecom NZ Share Price has "Jumped the Shark"
I was Wrong... sort of
Telecom NZ: TV3 60 Minutes Segment more like Corporate PR
Telecom Share Price Limbos but has it jumped the Shark?
Telecom NZ: Saint Gattung gets her Ya Ya's out
Telecom NZ: Bye Bye Paul Reynolds
Long Term View: Telecom NZ Ltd
Stock of the Week: Telecom Ltd
Revisiting Telecom

Getting cute and fluffy with Teresa Gattung
Telecom NZ Hangs up
Business Gobbledygook puts up barriers to communication
A Rare Breed
Telecom NZ facing a watershed period
Biology a major key in "glass ceiling" for women
Telecom rewards Gattung for mediocrity

Download TEL Company Reports
Discuss TEL at Share Investor Forum - Register free


From Fishpond.co.nz

Bird on a Wire: The Inside Story from a Straight Talking CEO

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Fishpond


c Share Investor 2011

Friday, May 27, 2011

Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 27 May 2011

The Share Investor Portfolio was down in the forth week of May, the first time in months. The portfolio was down by 1.13% or $3338.86 on the May 20 update . For the first 20 weeks of 2011 the portfolio has increased by 15.01 % or $38507.67 . This weeks drop was due, primarily, to a 4c drop in SKC, a 8c fall in WHS and a 22c plunge in FRE. There were a number of smaller falls in other stocks but if not for a huge rally of 42c for MFT the portfolio would have been down almost double this weeks fall.


$550.00 in dividends from MFT FY 2011 profit result & $350.00 from FPH FY 2011 profit result were included.

The total of unspent dividends and interest in the bank as at 26 May from the 2010 - 2011 earnings years is $25382.95 at close of reporting season for 2010 and at the end of the 2011 1st half reporting year. There are also approx $55000.00 in tax credits earned from the portfolio since it began in late 2002.

The Share Investor Portfolio has increased in value by 19.80% or $52264.92 since I began tracking it for this blog on October 11 2010.


Share Investor Portfolio as at 17:30:00, Friday 27 May, 2011 (NZT)

Stock
Quantity
Cost price
Total cost
Market price
Market value
Change
%
AIA

2,000 $1.700 $3,400.00 $2.270 $4,540.00 $1,140.00 33.53%
AIA

2,000 $1.510 $3,020.00 $2.270 $4,540.00 $1,520.00 50.33%
AIA

558 $0.000 $0.00 $2.270 $1,266.66 $1,266.66
AIA

754 $2.150 $1,621.10 $2.270 $1,711.58 $90.48 5.58%
ASBPB

3,109 $0.000 $0.00 $0.670 $2,083.03 $2,083.03
ASBPB

6,891 $1.000 $6,891.00 $0.670 $4,616.97 $2,274.03 33.00%
BGR

619 $0.000 $0.00 $1.480 $916.12 $916.12
BGR

2,381 $0.990 $2,357.19 $1.480 $3,523.88 $1,166.69 49.49%
FBU

284 $0.000 $0.00 $8.840 $2,510.56 $2,510.56
FBU

830 $9.750 $8,092.50 $8.840 $7,337.20 $755.30 9.33%
FPH

3,000 $2.350 $7,050.00 $2.990 $8,970.00 $1,920.00 27.23%
FPH

1,365 $3.720 $5,077.80 $2.990 $4,081.35 $996.45 19.62%
FPH

635 $0.000 $0.00 $2.990 $1,898.65 $1,898.65
FRE

2,054 $0.000 $0.00 $3.300 $6,778.20 $6,778.20
FRE

6,577 $3.630 $23,874.51 $3.300 $21,704.10 $2,170.41 9.09%
GFF

586 $0.000 $0.00 $1.330 $779.38 $779.38
GFF

1,414 $2.330 $3,294.62 $1.330 $1,880.62 $1,414.00 42.92%
HLG

299 $0.000 $0.00 $4.150 $1,240.85 $1,240.85
HLG

701 $2.530 $1,773.53 $4.150 $2,909.15 $1,135.62 64.03%
KIP

763 $1.480 $1,129.24 $1.055 $804.97 $324.28 28.72%
KIP

237 $0.000 $0.00 $1.055 $250.04 $250.04
MFT

1,000 $7.960 $7,960.00 $9.910 $9,910.00 $1,950.00 24.50%
MFT

1,838 $8.000 $14,704.00 $9.910 $18,214.58 $3,510.58 23.88%
MFT

1,375 $4.200 $5,775.00 $9.910 $13,626.25 $7,851.25 135.95%
MFT

787 $0.000 $0.00 $9.910 $7,799.17 $7,799.17
MHI

1,646 $0.860 $1,415.56 $0.940 $1,547.24 $131.68 9.30%
MHI

7,000 $0.630 $4,410.00 $0.940 $6,580.00 $2,170.00 49.21%
MHI

494 $1.050 $518.70 $0.940 $464.36 $54.34 10.48%
MHI

860 $0.000 $0.00 $0.940 $808.40 $808.40
PPG

31 $0.000 $0.00 $0.260 $8.06 $8.06
PPG

1,500 $0.440 $660.00 $0.260 $390.00 $270.00 40.91%
PPG

1,004 $0.800 $803.20 $0.260 $261.04 $542.16 67.50%
PPL

1,000 $3.090 $3,090.00 $1.180 $1,180.00 $1,910.00 61.81%
PPL

1,000 $2.870 $2,870.00 $1.180 $1,180.00 $1,690.00 58.89%
PPL

939 $4.200 $3,943.80 $1.180 $1,108.02 $2,835.78 71.90%
PPL

975 $0.000 $0.00 $1.180 $1,150.50 $1,150.50
PPL

1,086 $1.530 $1,661.58 $1.180 $1,281.48 $380.10 22.88%
RYM

555 $0.000 $0.00 $2.690 $1,492.95 $1,492.95
RYM

4,445 $1.970 $8,756.65 $2.690 $11,957.05 $3,200.40 36.55%
SKC

5,750 $7.430 $42,722.50 $3.700 $21,275.00 $21,447.50 50.20%
SKC

1,000 $7.600 $7,600.00 $3.700 $3,700.00 $3,900.00 51.32%
SKC

2,750 $7.700 $21,175.00 $3.700 $10,175.00 $11,000.00 51.95%
SKC

1,431 $8.750 $12,521.25 $3.700 $5,294.70 $7,226.55 57.71%
SKC

272 $4.720 $1,283.84 $3.700 $1,006.40 $277.44 21.61%
SKC

25,712 $0.000 $0.00 $3.700 $95,134.40 $95,134.40
STU

78 $0.000 $0.00 $2.620 $204.36 $204.36
STU

303 $4.740 $1,436.22 $2.620 $793.86 $642.36 44.73%
WHS

4,500 $3.730 $16,785.00 $3.600 $16,200.00 $585.00 3.49%
WHS

6,979 $6.000 $41,874.00 $3.600 $25,124.40 $16,749.60 40.00%
WHS

15 $3.710 $55.65 $3.600 $54.00 $1.65 2.96%
WHS

3,506 $0.000 $0.00 $3.600 $12,621.60 $12,621.60

31.63%


Total cost Market value Change

$269,603.44 $354,886.12 $85,282.68


Share Investor Portfolio @ Share Investor

Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 20 May 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 13 May 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 6 May 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 29 April 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 22 April 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 15 April 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 8 April 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 1 April 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 14 March 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 8 March 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 28 February 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 21 February 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 14 February 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 7 February 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 31 January 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 24 January 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 17 January 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 10 January 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 3 January 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 27 December 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 20 December 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 13 December 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 6 December 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 29 November 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 22 November 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 15 November 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 8 November 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 1 November 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 25 October 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 18 October 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 11 October 2010
Share Investor Dividends


Share Investor's Annual Stock Picks

Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks: Looking Back
Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2010 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2008 Stock Picks

Brokers 2011 Stock Picks


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The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) by Benjamin Graham
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c Share Investor 2011