Monday, November 23, 2015

Share Investor's 2016 Stock Picks

I want to thank Halle Berry because without her this years picks would
have been more difficult. She helped be with a few stragglers.

Well I'm going to do something different for next years stock picks. I'm just going to pick what I have in my portfolio - minus the weedy ones - and add what I think will be some goers for next year.

So this list is going to be a lot shorter than usual.

Ill start my begging at Sky City Entertainment SKC

This will finally be the start of many a fine year for this company. Many of the rules to relax gaming will apply and they all do so BEFORE the casino is ready to go.

Watch this start to climb from this year.

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare FPH is another pick, picked again last year, it improved substantially this year and will do again in 2016. Plenty of money being spent, new things being created and sold at less and less cost.

All this means good things if YOU are a shareholder.

Mainfreight Ltd MFT is well on track to deliver the goods in 2016.

Money has been spent on warehouses in Auckland, Hamilton, Christchurch, Brisbane, Melbourne, Los Angeles's and one other place I cant remember right now but trust me, they have shelled out the noodles, now they just have to bring them in.

Auckland Airport AIA, it delivered in 2015, it will again in 2016.

Ryman Healthcare RYM is of course a definite push for the entry doors as this keeps getting bigger and bigger. Ignore all broker conflabs about when to buy etc. Do your own research and find the time to get yourself involved.

Contact Energy CEN, get it while its under or close to 5 bucks. Its got a clear 3-4 years ahead as far as capital returns go and there maybe something up CEO Dennis Barnes sleeves.

Lastly pick Hallensteins Glassons HLG, You have to be PATIENT but you can pick it up and all day long its paying 10% plus.

And the best thing about it is that its NOT covered by analysts and brokers (surely two of the most painful words in the market-mans (see what I did there and I will do from now on) dictionary) So you can make your way without the bluff and bluster.

Its a good stock.

Now for two of the ones I don't hold.

Ebos Group EBO, value in this stock AT MUCH LOWER levels. Like in the 7-8 dollars. Good management.

Infratil Ltd IFT, I've been meaning to chuck a few shekels at you but you cant go wrong with their assets and the way the company is run.

Finally, something I see as a contender for M & A activity next year. Trustpower Ltd TPW. That's the one Dennis has his eyes on.

Told ya Id be biased. Well if I cant get behind my stocks and sell them who else is going to.

Pick these stocks on dips in their share prices-they ALL have dips.

The Warehouse WHS excluded because its just about dead the rest of my stocks are headed for the hills in the next couple of years...they will have paid for themselves and start paying me pure profit.

See you next year.


P.S. If you have your own picks put them down at the bottom.

Share Investor's Annual Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2014 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2013 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2012 Stock Picks 
Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2010 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2008 Stock picks

Broker Picks

Brokers 2014 Stock Picks
Brokers 2013 Stock Picks
Brokers 2012 Stock Picks
Brokers 2011 Stock Picks

c Share Investor 2015, 2016

Tuesday, November 10, 2015

Mainfreight: 10 Billion in 10 years

Christmas Pest IT - Mainfreight

Tis merely a blip in the ocean one could say about today's announcement of profit for the Mainfreight Group [MFT.NZ]

Which mean all the expense was done in the previous half, new or extended warehouses in Auckland, Hamilton, Christchurch, Melbourne, Brisbane and the revenue failed to come in the second half - its already picking up in October and November.

Its just a matter of time and time has already added about NZ$100 million to revenue.

Revenue in New Zealand rose 5.9 percent to about $271 million and earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation fell 3 percent to $29 million, but the company doesn't expect overhead and wage costs will need to rise further as volumes increase.

In Australia, sales rose 5.2 percent to A$248.6 million, while Ebitda fell 14 percent to A$13.2 million. The performance of its domestic transport business in Australia "was well below our expectations", contributing to the "less-than satisfactory" 26 percent drop in first-half Ebitda.
"Overhead cost increases, a declining gross margin and poor sales growth were all factors affecting the result," it said.

It should concentrate on sales growth for the following half.

In the Americas, its Mainfreight USA business lifted first-half sales by 16 percent to US$155.4 million, while Ebitda fell 13 percent to US$4.96 million. Its air and ocean business recorded 32 percent sales growth and 27 percent earnings growth. That was offset by weaker earnings from domestic operations, where sales rose 2.9 percent and Ebitda dropped 37 percent, reflecting expansion of its line-haul routes and new logistics warehouse facilities in Los Angeles, Dallas and New Jersey.

This is part of the cost that I mentioned earlier and a really exciting part of the growth seeing these towns come under the Mainfreight wing. Just like New Zealand did all those years ago. You will see untold growth coming from these areas, especially Dallas, which I have an interest in.

Mainfreight reported improved results in Europe, with sales edging up 0.7 percent to 130.8 million euros and earnings gaining 14 percent to 5.9 million euros. It posted an improved performance from its European forwarding and transport operations, helped by a turnaround in its Belgian business. Its logistics operations "continue to show progress, and it noted "good momentum" in air and ocean. Those trends were expected to continue through the second half.

The Euros always have been an anathema to me but they will eventually come right, Mainfreight will tell you themselves they paid way too much for it.

I believe the Mainfreight business is in fine form, just going over one of the many bumps in the road on the way to the 10 billion in 10 years.

Mainfreight @ Share Investor

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A rare breed
Share Investor's 2008 stock picks

Discuss MFT @ Share Investor Forum

c Share Investor 2015