Sunday, December 30, 2012

Hot stock picks for 2013

More stockpicks in which you can slavishly salivate over in 2013. Most of them not disclosed.

Stockbrokers' stated optimism for the year ahead on local and global sharemarkets is subject to a pretty big proviso: no more global financial crises please.

The catch-phrases of the past few years - the "credit crunch", "the GFC", "euro woes", the debt ceiling - have settled and equities markets could be looking at a second year without catastrophe.
It's not a lofty goal, but JB Were investment strategy group adviser Bernard Doyle says investors can take heart from relative stability, even if growth in their returns isn't spectacular.
"It won't be a blockbuster year for growth but it could be a year where for consecutive years... you haven't had some extreme bouts of risk events or worry about like a European collapse or markets teetering on the abyss again.
"If we get two years in a row where markets aren't concerned about existential threats - threats to the financial system - that will be the biggest achievement."
But there is already a problem on the horizon. The powerhouse United States economy is running out of financial road and heading for a "fiscal cliff".
At the bottom of that particular canyon lies Greek-style austerity measures which would equate to more than 5 per cent of the United States' GDP and lead to an almost certain recession.
However, the American political divide would have to grow to Grand Canyon proportions for a disagreement on government budget policy to push the country into such serious economic repercussions.
On the plus side, China has managed to manoeuvre its economic levers appropriately to avoid the mistakes of the Western economies, said MSL Capital Markets' Peter Elenio.
"Chinese authorities worked so hard to try and take the air out of their economy, to try and learn from Western mistakes, including everything from trying to keep inflation down and making sure that banks didn't lend too much.
"They do actually have the ability to turn the tap on again and I think we're seeing signs of that now."
However Doyle said the New Zealand sharemarket had actually benefited from the recent global stability concerns, as investors looked for off-the-radar equities with high yields, which New Zealand companies specialise in.
Investors were happy to buy cheap then, but will be looking for tangible earnings growth from those companies in the new year, he warned.
"It won't be a 20 per cent [return] year, but we could have a 10 to 15 per cent year quite possibly."
What follows are market leaders' top picks for 2013.
1. Diligent Board Member Services (DIL): At the intersection of two of the most important mega-trends in computing, namely "software as a service" and the iPad. In 2013 we believe Diligent will demonstrate its ability to generate substantial free cashflow while maintaining high growth rates at the top line.
2. Summerset Group (SUM): Underpinned by ageing population, which will only amplify in coming years as baby-boomers start to retire. We see a busy year in 2013 as Summerset proves that it can achieve much higher build rates across multiple villages.
3. PGG Wrightson (PGW): After an extensive period of restructuring, the outlook for PGW appears to be improving finally. Our enthusiasm is due to growth in rural merchandise sales and anticipated recovery in Australian seed sales, partially offset by weaker livestock revenue and real estate commission. Combined with an improving debt position, we expect the company to resume dividend payments in 2013.
4. Sky Television (SKT): Expected to be a solid performer in the year ahead as focus turns to earnings growth resuming in FY14 following a flat FY13 result. While it is a maturing business model, the recent special dividend highlights SKT's strong cashflow generation.
5. Kathmandu (KMD): Continues to enjoy decent same-store sales growth, highlighting ongoing strength in its sector, which should translate into higher earnings now that new systems and distribution centres have been bedded down. KMD share price to earnings multiple (10 times) is still undemanding, and with good execution could exceed current earnings estimates.
1. Goodman Fielder (GFF): With a dividend yield in excess of 4.5 and 6 per cent growth, GFF could be priced at up to a 40 per cent premium to market price to earnings ratio [pe] multiples.
2. Oceania Gold (OGC): We forecast gold production reaching 320,000 ounces in 2013 and 350,000-plus ounces by 2014, up from 230,000 in 2012. At the same time, we expect cash costs to fall almost 40 per cent to average below $650 per ounce once [Philippines-based gold copper project] Didipio is in full production. We continue to believe that the significant production growth will be the catalyst leading to a re-rating for the stock.
3. Pumpkin Patch (PPL): with FY13 shaping up as a year of consolidation, PPL appears well positioned to deliver strong medium-term earnings-per-share [EPS] growth, enjoy the flexibility of not being handicapped by out-of-the-money hedges, rebuild the Pumpkin Patch brand, expand Charlie & Me, reduce working capital commitments and pay an appealing dividend.
4. Ryman Healthcare (RYM): has a unique needs-based model (ie aged-care-heavy), and remains the market leader in a sector with both favourable economics and attractive long-term growth driven by demographics.
5. Restaurant Brands (RBD): offers an appealing blend of solid dividend and share-price growth as it leverages its core capabilities, firstly with the introduction of Carl's Jr, and potentially in the future with other, complementary brands.
1. Fletcher Building (FBU): The stock price has improved a long way from $6 to above $8. We know we're in a housing recovery, not just in Christchurch but also Auckland. The Australian housing market could be on the cusp of recovery. Earnings growth forecast is 15 per cent in 2013, 30 per cent in 2014.
2. Infratil (IFT): The underlying businesses are attractive, but they're not being recognised by the market. We have been quite impressed by earnings growth coming out of some of the underlying businesses - Energy Australia and Z Energy. That makes the stock quite attractive.
3. SkyCity (SKC): The stock price has lagged behind others around it that have moved strongly higher. We think there's valuation support for the company. There are potential catalysts for growth with the Auckland convention centre and potential for expansion of its Australian operations, including $375m investment in Adelaide. It's languished a little bit but we like the quality of the business, we're happy to be patient.
4. Guiness Peat Group (GPG): We still see the intrinsic value of the underlying assets as discounted, and as the company continues to wind up its investments, the gap between underlying value and the market's pricing will narrow. The stock has the most emotional baggage of any in the NZ market. There are a lot of disappointed investors, rightly so. To own that stock, you'd have to be happy to own Coats, its biggest underlying business, and so most likely the one you will be left with.
5. New Zealand Oil & Gas (NZOG): The management of cash resources of the company has improved markedly, and it's now paying an impressive yield. There's good discipline around its exploration plans. We like having a little bit of oil in the mix, anyway, because if I was looking into 2013 and asking what could go badly wrong, there's still Iran sitting out there with nuclear ambitions.
1. Mainfreight (MFT): The firm has set out to methodically build a global freight logistics business and its acquisition of Wim Bosman for € 110 million has given MFT a solid footprint into Europe. MFT has a high marginal return on equity through leveraging organic growth from its existing network and earnings growth outpacing the market and its peers. The executive team is proactive and has proven to be highly responsive to changes in market conditions, and it has substantial global growth prospects.
2. PGG Wrightson (PGW): This company has made progress in improving the underlying operating performances of its core rural-services businesses. Its proprietary seed business remains in a strong position with a competitive advantage in its significant research and development facilities. It is focused on reducing debt through the monetisation of its loan portfolio and targeting working capital. Assuming no further drastic climatic condition issues in Australia and New Zealand, we believe PGW is well positioned to achieve solid earnings growth over the medium term.
3. Ryman (RYM): Compelling demographics mean this business continues to deliver a high-quality product that is enjoying increased demand. It has the scale, in-house expertise and development pipeline to capitalise on this demand and is a recognised market leader.
4. SkyCity (SKC): is very well placed for medium-term operational upside from improvements to its Auckland casino and the underlying economic conditions, but the operating environment remains subdued. Encouraging signs at the key Auckland property over the full-year 2012, in particular for the Auckland gaming machines and international business. A strong generator of free cashflow, a sound balance sheet and potential further leverage from the NZ International Convention Centre.
5. Skellerup (SKL): Its model is proactive, seeking to drive operational improvements and the pursuit of new product development in close association with customers.
1. A2 Corporation (ATM): has experienced strong revenue growth in 2012 with growing appreciation of the health benefits of its products. We expect the ambitious growth strategy and investment over the last two years in expanding into the UK and other key markets will start to show results in the coming year. We anticipate that A2 will be included in the NZX 50 during the next year attracting greater investor interest.
2. Diligent Board Member Services (DIL): One of the real growth stocks of the last three years, it has a global leading position in the provision of software portal services to major corporates. Continues to benefit from margin expansion and increasing compliance requirements imposed by regulatory authorities. Sales penetration in Europe and Asia is expected to drive revenue growth. Diligent is also developing a dividend policy.
3. Skellerup (SKL): Strong dividend yield and focused management has led us to believe that this stock will continue to benefit from greater institutional interest.
4. NZX: 2013 looks very encouraging for listing fees and other revenue streams that NZX should benefit from. The Government's plans for the partial sell-down of some of the state-owned assets and the pipeline of other expected IPOs should drive improved performance. The focus of the new management team on forming strong relationships with all market participants is expected to see benefits.
5. Tower (TWR): Continues to perform well and margin expansion is expected to continue with a lower level of claims in a number of its divisions. The sale of GPG's stake could create the prospect of corporate activity.

c Share Investor 2013

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Broker Stock Picks for 2013

I made my 2013 stock picks back in late November and some of you maybe wondering what the professionals are thinking for next year.

Keep in mind, just like me they will have their biases and they may or may not indicate as to whether they own the stock they are picking - they should.

Some interesting picks that I will comment on latter in this spot.

2013 Picks

Goldman Sachs
* SkyCity
* Ryman
* Telecom
* Infratil
* Kathmandu
McDouall Stuart
* Abano
* Diligent
* Ryman
* Skellerup
* Cue Energy
Forsyth Barr
* Fletcher Building
* F&P Appliance
* Chorus
* Sky TV
* Ryman
First NZ Capital
* Fletcher Building
* Mainfreight
* Chorus
* National Property Trust
* NZ Oil & Gas
MacQuarie Securities
* Chorus
* Pumpkin Patch
* Ryman
* Mainfreight
* Transpacific Industries
Hamilton Hindin Greene
* F&P Healthcare
* Westpac
* Chorus
* Nuplex
* Tower
Craigs Investment Partners
* Chorus
* Auckland Airport
* Ryman
* Fletcher Building
* Westpac

The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) (Collins Business Essentials)The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) (Collins Business Essentials) by Benjamin Graham
Buy new: $13.25 / Used from: $9.24
Usually ships in 24 hours
The Essays of Warren Buffett: Lessons for Corporate America, Fourth EditionThe Essays of Warren Buffett: Lessons for Corporate America, Fourth Edition by Warren E. Buffett
Buy new: $30.40 / Used from: $169.48
Usually ships in 24 hours

c  Share Investor 2013

Friday, November 30, 2012

Share Investor's 2013 Stock Picks

2012 has been a great year for stocks so forget about what might happen and suspend belief for a nanosecond and take a read at what I have for you.

The stock picking monkey has been very busy this year with a few surprises.

This year the monkey had a hard go at it but managed to get through quite a few interesting picks.

This year I have picked stocks based on nothing except value of the stock based on where I think it will go.

Please keep in mind dear readers that the picks are my own and they reflect my investment philosophy and not necessarily anyone else's.

My picks are primarily based on a long-term view, regardless of the current short to medium term market turmoil and economic uncertainty.

NB: Since I think most of my portfolio consist of the best stocks on the New Zealand market, I found it difficult to pick stocks outside my realm of self interest.

Share Investor's 2013 Stock Picks 

Picks from the NZX

Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd

Sky City Entertainment has had an exceptional 2012, with a record FY 2012 profit at the hands of an excellent CEO and a number of strategies planned and executed to produce pleasing results for shareholders. The share price of the company has not however tracked its increased fortunes and has been trading in 2012 between $3.25 - to just over $4.00.

The company has invested alot of money in expansion of the business in 2012 with a large number of eateries and bars added across the company's casinos and new gaming areas in the Auckland casino bearing fruit. 2013 looks promising as the company has bid for a national convention centre and look to cement this deal with Govt in the early part of that year, no matter what the lefties say.

It looks to be good value as a result of this low share price relative to its prospects of a full year profit for 2013 of between $140 -150 million.

Buy on weakness if this company has already been in your sights.

Sky City Convention Centre @ Share Investor

VIDEO - Sky City Entertainment Group : Parliamentary Question related to Convention Centre
Sky City to pay for National Convention Centre
Share Investor discusses Convention Centre proposal with CEO Nigel Morrison
Sky City Convention Centre Expansion a Money Loser: Part Two
Sky City Convention Centre Expansion a Money loser
SKC Convention Centre power-point slide illustrations & SKC submission to Auckland City Council

Sky City Entertainment Group @ Share Investor

Sky City Gaming: Morningstars look at Sky City's gaming
Share Investor's Total Returns: Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd: Presentation to Macquarie Group
Morningstar Revalues Sky City Entertainment Group
Guest Post - Michele Hewitson Interview: Nigel Morrison
Failed Sky City bid for Christchurch Casino good news for Shareholders
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd: Christchurch Casino bid falls short of Investment Criteria
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd: Never mind the width feel the volume
Sky City Annual Meeting & 2011 - 2012 Profit Forecast
Stock of the Week: Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
Sky City set to lose National Convention Centre bid
Sky City Entertainment Group: Australian Acquisition on the Cards?
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd: 2010 Full Year Profit Analysis
Sky City Entertainment Group 2010 Full Year Profit Preview
Chart of the Week: Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
Share Investor discusses Convention Centre proposal with CEO Nigel Morrison
Share Investor Q & A: Sky City CEO, Nigel Morrison
Sky City Entertainment: CEO Nigel Morrison discusses 2010 HY
Sky City Convention Centre Expansion a Money Loser: Part Two
Sky City Convention Centre Expansion a Money loser
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd: Download full Company analysis
Sky City 2010 full year profit looking good
Long Term View: Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
Sky City Entertainment: CEO Nigel Morrison discusses 2010 Half Year
Sky City Entertainment Group 2010 Interim Profit Review
Sky City to focus on Gaming
Sky City debts levels now more manageable
Insider Trading on Sky City shares
Sky City Profit Upgrade: Always on the Cards
Sky City's Current Cinema "Boom" a Horror Story in Disguise
Stock of the Week: Sky City Entertainment Group
Are Insiders selling Sky City Stock?
Sky City Entertainment 2009 Interim Result Preamble
2008 Sky City profit analysis
Sky City share offer confusing and unfair for smaller shareholders
Sky City Entertainment 2008 Full Year profit results , NZX release, 2008 full year presentation, result briefing webcast, financial statements
Sky City 2008 profit preamble
Sky City outlines a clear future plan
As recession bites Sky City bites back
Sky City Assets: Buy, sell and hold
Why did you buy that stock? [Sky City Entertainment]
Sky City Share Volumes set tongues wagging
Sky City half year exceptional on cost cutting
NZX Press release: Sky City profit to HY end Dec 2007
Sky City Cinemas no Blockbuster

Sky City Entertainment share price drop
New Broom set to sweep
Sky City Management: Blind, deaf and numb
Sky City sale could be off
Opposition to takeover
Premium for control
Sky City receives takeover bid
Sky City Casino Full Year Profit to June 30 2007
Setting the record straight
Sky City CEO resigns
Sky City Casino: Under performing
Sky City Casino 2007 HY Profit(analysis)
Sky City Casino 2007 HY Profit

Discuss SKC @ Share Investor Forum
Download SKC Company Reports

Fletcher Building Ltd


Fletcher Building Ltd [FBU.NZX] are showing more of a positive tone as the New Zealand economy limps on but Christchurch City shows signs of rebuilding

While the economy is uncertain the outlook for it is probably a little better than it was 4 years ago yet the share price has been given a beating until recently

I still think the outlook for FBU is good but most of the bad news has already been factored into the share price and further falls would be the market overreacting to this delay.

They also had a good result in to June 30 2012, with a promise of a 20% upgrade.

It is returning a near 9% gross dividend at these price levels and this is clearly an attractive income as well as a good capital gain play as the share price recovers with the first notice of a definite rebuild.

FBU @ Share Investor

Share Price Alert: Fletcher Building Ltd 5
Share Price Alert: Fletcher Building Ltd 4
Share Price Alert: Fletcher Building Ltd 3
Share Price Alert: Fletcher Building Ltd 2
Fletcher Building: Crane Takeover Offer Well Timed
Fletcher Building Ltd: 2010 Full Year Profit Analysis
Fletcher Building: All eggs in one basket make for big risk
Long Term View: Fletcher Building Ltd
Hugh Fletcher: Silver spoon no recipe for success
Long VS Short: Fletcher Building Ltd
Fletcher Building's Commercial arm keeps their head above the tunnel
Sweetheart deal for Fletcher Building's Friends
Fletcher House built on hard times
Fletcher Building down tools in the short term
Why did you buy that stock? [Fletcher Building Ltd]
A solid foundation for the future
Fletcher Building raises profit through canny management
Fletcher's got game

Discuss Fletcher Building @ Share Investor Forum - Register free
Download FBU Company Reports

The Warehouse Group

The Warehouse Group [WHS.NZ] hasn't been featured since 2010 because retail has been tough especially on the WHS. Retail has been tough in New Zealand and globally over the last few years but there are signs that retail in NZ is on the improve.This confidence by management will only be underpinned by tangible results over the all important 2012 Christmas shopping period and any increase on last year will be a sign that improvement could be on the cards for 2013.

This stock is a good long term play and any increase in sales and cashflow will benefit shareholders with increased dividends.

The increase in sales and profit over the quarter have re-rated this stock.

There is the added bonus is that the company is still in play to some extent pending a decision by either Foodstuffs or Woolworths Australia making an official bid for the company.

Accumulate on weakness.

The Warehouse Group @ Share Investor

Share Investor Q & A: Warehouse Group CEO Mark Powell
Share Investor Q & A: Reader questions to Warehouse CEO Mark Powell
Share Price Alert: The Warehouse Group Ltd 2
Woolworths puts The Warehouse back on the shopping block
Share Investor's Total Returns: The Warehouse Group Ltd
The Warehouse Group Ltd: Takeover Speculation Resurfaces

Share Price Alert: The Warehouse Group Ltd
The Warehouse Group: Tips for the new CEO
The Warehouse Group: Should Ian Morrice Go?
Has the Warehouse lost its Mojo?
Stock of the Day: The Warehouse Group Ltd
The Warehouse Group Ltd: Takeover Prospect looking good on paper
VIDEO: Extended Ian Morrice Interview
Share Investor Q & A: Warehouse Group CEO Ian MorriceWarehouse Group Ltd: 2010 Full Year Profit Analysis
Share Investor Q & A: Questions to The Warehouse' Ian Morrice
Long Term View: The Warehouse Group Ltd
Share Investor Short: Warehouse Group yield worth a look
The Warehouse Group: 2010 Interim Profit Review
The Warehouse: Big Brands, Big Opportunities
Warehouse strike opportunity to buy
Long Term Play: The Warehouse Group
Share Investor Short: Warehouse Group yield worth a second look
Woolworths supermarket consolidation an indicator of a move on the Warehouse?
Stock of the Week: The Warehouse Group
Warehouse 2009 interim profit a key economic indicator
When will The Warehouse bidders make their move?
Long vs Short: The Warehouse Group
Warehouse bidders ready to lay money down
The Warehouse set to cut lose "extra" impediment
The Warehouse sale could hinge on "Extra" decision

The case for The Warehouse without a buyer
Foodstuffs take their foot off the gas
Woolworths seek leave to appeal to Supreme Court

Warehouse appeal decision imminent
Warehouse decision a loser for all
Warehouse Court of appeal decision in Commerce Commission's favour
MARKETWATCH: The Warehouse
The Warehouse takeover saga continues
Why did you buy that stock? [The Warehouse]
History of Warehouse takeover players suggest a long winding road
Court of Appeal delays Warehouse bid
The Warehouse set for turbulent 2008
The Warehouse Court of Appeal case lay in "Extras" hands
WHS Court of Appeal case could be dismissed next week
Commerce Commission impacts on the Warehouse bottom line
The Warehouse in play
Outcomes of Commerce Commission decision
The fight for control begins soon

Discuss WHS @ Share Investor Forum - Register free

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd


I have included Fisher & Paykel Healthcare in 2013 because I still consider will be one of the big successes of the next 5-10 years and one I included in the 2008, 2009 ,2010 , 2011 and 2012 Share Investor stock picks,.

It is not only a company with good long-term prospects but a company that is another good hedge against the current global turmoil. Despite the grim economic conditions over the last few years it has managed to grow revenue well and maintaining a good profit despite the weak US dollar. Their products will still sell well despite a possible downturn in other business sectors.

Its share price has done nothing over the last 12 months but as I said above economic conditions have failed to dent its prospects and 2013 looks to show more of the same.

With a 2013 half year profit and revenue up strongly on 2012, 2013 looks to be an even better year than 2012 in terms or business operations.

Its share price has been as low as $1.83 this year and I bought 15000 in January of this year at $2.13.

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare @ Share Investor

Share Investor's 2012 Stock Picks
Global Market Sell-Off Stocks: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Resmed takes market share from Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Resmed kicking Fisher & Paykel Heathcares butt?
Share Price Alert: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd
I'm Buying: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd
Share Investor's Total Returns: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd
Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks
Stock of the Week: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare & the US Dollar
Mondrian Investment Partners take stake in Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare: 2010 Full Year Profit rests on Foreign exchange movement
Long Term View: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Stock of the Week: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Analysis - Fisher & Paykel Healthcare: FY Profit to 31/03/09
Schroder Investment Management takes big Fisher & Paykel Healthcare stake
Long VS Short: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Big Fisher & Paykel Healthcare trades a curious tale
Why did you buy that stock? [Fisher & Paykel Healthcare]

Drinking and Trading
Share Investor's 2008 stock picks
Fisher & Paykel: A tale of two companies
FPH downgrade masks good performance

Discuss FPH @ Share Investor Forum
Download FPH Company Reports

Pumpkin Patch Ltd


Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL.NZX] had a reversal of sorts this year. From a penny dreadful to above a buck it changed its fortune when it put global dominance behind them and concentrated on this part of the world.

It still is overseas but through different channels such as 3rd parties which the patch gets its fair share of.

They managed a decent profit this half year and all the reorganization has thus far had the required impetus, so much so that there is talk of paying a divided next year.

Look  forward to new stores and some exciting new clothes for the coming season.

Pumpkin Patch @ Share Investor

Share Price Alert: Pumpkin Patch Ltd 4
Share Price Alert: Pumpkin Patch Ltd 3
Share Price Alert: Pumpkin Patch Ltd 2
Share Price Alert: Pumpkin Patch Ltd

Stock of the Week: Pumpkin Patch Ltd
VIDEO INTERVIEW: Pumpkin Patch CFO Matthew Washington
Pumpkin Patch Ltd: 2010 Full Year Profit Analysis
Pumpkin Patch Ltd move downmarket
Long Term View: Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Pumpkin Patch's North American Downsizing a Prudent move
Digging at Pumpkin's Profit
Long vs Short: Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Buyback shows Confidence in the Future
Pumpkin Patch takes a hit
Pumpkin Patch ripe for the picking
What is Jan Cameron up to?
I'm buying

Why did you buy that Stock? [Pumpkin Patch]
Rod Duke's Pumpkin Patch gets bigger
Buyer of large piece of Pumpkin Patch a mystery

Pumpkin Patch a screaming buy
Broker downgrades of PPL lack long term vision
Pumpkin's expansion comes at a cost
Pumpkin Patch vs Burger Fuel
Pumpkin Patch profits flatten
New Zealand Retailers ring up costs not tills

Discuss PPL @ Share Investor Forum
Download PPL Company Reports

Mainfreight Ltd


Mainfreight is a dominant player in the logistics sector in Australasia and has businesses in North America and Asia. It has designs on becoming a global logistics player and is well on the way to acheiving its own stated aim of 2 billion in revenue. It has a stated aim of doubling in size over the next 3-5 years.

It is one of the best managed companies listed on the NZX.

There has been a few hiccups along the way, Win Bosman on sale to MFT, is a black spot thus far but you cannot undermine MFT management of this situation and some patchy performance in Asia.

There is no doubt that MFT will manage its way out of it, they have managed thus far this year and Im picking they will manage their way out this year.

Buy on weakness.

Mainfreight @ Share Investor

Share Investor's 2012 Stock Picks
Share Price Alert: Mainfreight Ltd 3
Share Price Alert: Mainfreight Ltd 2
Mainfreight's European Aquisition a Good Move
Share Price Alert: Mainfreight Ltd
Investing in the Stockmarket: Timing your Purchase
Stock of the Week: Mainfreight Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd: 2011 1st quarter Profit Analysis
VIDEO: Don Braid with Paul Holmes on the Economy
Mainfreight Ltd: Full Year 2010 Profit Analysis
Long Term View: Mainfreight Ltd
Share Investor Interview: Mainfreight's MD Don Braid
Stock of the Week: Mainfreight Ltd
Questions to Mainfreight's MD Don Braid
I'm Buying: Mainfreight Management delivers the goods
Mainfreight Annual Report Packs a Punch
Analysis - Mainfreight Ltd: FY Profit to 31/03/09
Mainfreight VS KiwiRail: The Sequel
Long VS Short: Mainfreight Ltd
Why did you buy that stock? [Mainfreight Ltd]
Mainfreight 2008 Annual report worth reading
KiwiRail will cost Mainfreight
Mainfreight keeps on truckin
A rare breed
Share Investor's 2008 stock picks

Discuss MFT @ Share Investor Forum

New Zealand Refining Ltd


With low refining rates, massive capital expenditure and plant shutdowns largely behind them and a rising global oil prices, 2013 looks to be a resurgent year for New Zealand Refining Ltd.

Those higher oil prices will see this stock rise and it has already and the oil price rise has been a significant one. It has been mainly due to a very cold Northern Winter bumping up all sorts of petrochemical products so it is unclear just how sustainable the oil price rise will be. Having said that the recent rise is bound to gain some traction even when the Northern ice melts away and 2013 rolls along.

Their mid 2012 profit was horrible but that should be the last of that, it can only go down so far.

Look for an increased dividend in 2013 as profit increases that will underpin a good share price rise from current levels.

NZR @ Share Investor

Contact Energy Ltd

Contact Energy has had a relatively good 2012 and slightly more customer numbers but 2013 is shaping up to be a better year for the company.

Drought conditions experienced now and forecast to continue across Summer are going to benefit a generator like Contact considerably and this will go straight to the bottom-line. Customer numbers have stopped falling and have showed some small gains over the months.

The are also persistent rumours that majority owner of the company origin Energy Ltd[ORG.NZX] are still interested in taking full control at some stage.

I bought some at $5.34 in July 2011 and I think investors have bailed too early considering things are finally starting to go their way. Look to buy before Winter 2013 because I am picking a good one for the company because of what I have outlined above.

A good defensive stock in times of economic uncertainty as 2013 will no doubt be.

Contact Energy @ Share Investor

Share Investor's 2012 Stock Picks
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 5
Contact Energy look set to gain customers
I'm Buying: Contact Energy Ltd
Share Investor Portfolio 2: Value @ 7 July 2011
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 4
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 3
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 2
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd
Stock of the Week - Reprise 5: Contact Energy Ltd
Origin Energy asset stripping Contact Energy
Stock of the Week - Reprise 4: Contact Energy Ltd
Stock of the Week - Reprise 3: Contact Energy Ltd
Long Term View: Contact Energy Ltd
Stock of the Week: Reprise 2 - Contact Energy
Stock of the Week: Reprise - Contact Energy
Not so fast Davy Boy
Still Watching Contact Energy
Beam me up Davy
Stock of the Week: Contact Energy
MarketWatch: Contact Energy - June 2009
MarketWatch: Contact Energy - Jan 2009
Contact Energy looks bright during dark times
Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks
Follow the Monopoly Board

Discuss this stock at Share Investor Forum - Register free


YUM! Brands Inc


A pick from 2010, 2011 & 2012 Yum ! Brands Inc achieved a billion plus in sales growth for 2012 and with more tasty growth to come in 2013 and beyond from China & India still make this company a Finger Lickin proposition. It will never be cheaper.


Coca Cola Amatil

Coca Cola Amatil is the dominant player in the carbonated drinks market in Australasia. It sells its iconic Coca Cola brand as well as a large number of other well known brands in New Zealand, Australia, Indonesia, Fiji and a number of other markets in this part of the world. Their latest 2012 result shows a good profit.

A strong history of profits can be a good sign that there is more to come in the future and the fact that its customers are largely addicted to its products makes this company a great long term bet. I have always liked this company because it keeps managing to grow its business with clever marketing and product placement at sales outlets.

Buy on any weakness for superior long-term returns.

Coca Cola @ Share Investor

Coke is it!

Caltex Australia Ltd

Caltex Australia Ltd is Australia's largest refiner of oil and oil based products and has one of Australia's largest networks of filling stations.

Its share price has done well over 2012 and is likely to do so in 2013 because the company still remains a dominant player in its sector with good long term potential.

The retail sector for petrol in Australia is undergoing consolidation at the moment and Caltex could be set to benefit.

Buy on weakness for good long term gains.

Other notable quotables


Auckland International Airport [AIA.NZ] A good monopoly at historically cheap prices.

Kathmandu Holdings Ltd [KMD.NZ] A listing that I may have been wrong about, well see. Value below NZ$1.80.

New Zealand Refining [NZR.NZ] The country's only refiner of oil products. The share price should recover on a lower Kiwi dollar and therefore better margins, an increased global demand for oil and refurbished, expanded plant which will be ready soon.

Port of Tauranga [POT.NZ] New Zealand's leading port company with good upside on increased exports.

Michael Hill International [MHI.NZ] A very well managed jewelry chain poised for global expansion just waiting for that all-important US market to come to the party.

Conclusion & Outlook for 2013

2013 may well be a year of some severe downward corrections on global stock markets. As uncertainty surrounds the fragile state of many economies and the precarious state of Europe's debt yoke and more pain and drama to come in the United States as politicians argue over spending cuts to stop the country from defaulting. Gains made on stock markets in 2012 could materialize for some as nervousness over the aforementioned leaves them to take cash off the table. It is clear that there is much more bad news in relation to the global economy to come and the consequences of this bad news one can only guess at but it will not be pretty at all.

That aside if you can, most listed companies have done well in 2012, and will continue to do so in 2013 but others will find the going tough as cash flow dries up, debt mounts and interest rates bite.

I got rid of  PPG, GFF and STU this year cause they irritated the hell out of me and they will never go anywhere. Why did I keep them? Well god only knows its been a year of changes.

Remember, the stocks I have picked above are based on my investment criteria and may not fit yours and of course you could have a different opinion. I would love to hear your opinion and any picks you may have.

Have a look at what I have to say, take it on board or not and then do your own research to see if you might agree with me.

Lastly, I wish you all good luck and a prosperous 2013.

*Just an added footnote. Please feel free to post your own stock picks for 2013. The only requirement is that you say why and declare any financial interest. Post them below at the bottom of this piece or click here.

Disclosure : I own  SKC, FBU, WHS, FPH, MFT, PPL, MHI, AIA, CEN shares in the Share Investor Portfolio.

Share Investor's Annual Stock Picks

Share Investor's 2013 Stock Picks

Share Investor's 2012 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2010 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2008 Stock picks

Broker Picks

Brokers 2012 Stock Picks
Brokers 2011 Stock Picks

c Share Investor 2012, 2013