Friday, December 11, 2020

Pacific Edge Ltd: Put that six shooter away


Pacific Edge Ltd (PEB) is a doozy.

It has recently moved into the black for me over the last few weeks just based on a single valuation that has become aware to the market - Jarden. 

It made the stock move to 98c on higher VOL.

But I suspect that along with the fact that the product, CX Bladder, is starting to gain some traction in the US, that a lot of this recent trading is of the sharesies the robinhood generation who have come to expect short term gains without really studying something.

This is not the place for that discussion.

So why is PEB a doozy?

I bought into the company because i see a potential winner here - way above Jarden's $1.40 per share.

I have looked at it for about 3 years and only just purchased it about 3 months ago.

Its a doozy because in amongst this you've got all these young folk who are just bidding up the price this week for no good reason other than Jarden put a figure on it. 

Its not going to made a profit for another 3 years, from the company itself!!

So corral your horses and put your six shooter away.

Your in for, a relatively (not for me) long wait of 3 years.

Just be patient.



Join up at Share Investor






Thursday, December 10, 2020

Share Investor's 2021 Stock Picks ;)


Normally i clear my mind and focus on next year.

This year, like 2020, i choose to go another way.

It has kind of run its course and ill tell you why if you be so kind to listen.

What is a stock pick but really an advert for yourself to pick whatever you want based on various methods.

I don't want to do that anymore, I see it as not helpful at all.

I would rather you pick the stock based on what you have learnt either through me or some other means - your "own" stock picks if you like.


I realize during this #covid19 period, it will be tricky to pick good long term winners.

BUT perhaps you can do the picking for once and i will listen - as i always do - intently.

I also got 6 of my 7 "might haves" right. The NZ dollar WILL weaken at some stage.

How will all my stocks do?

Well they did well this year. Pilling on about 30%. 

But don't get me wrong next year is a little bit more harder to predict - so i wont.

Except to say they are basically all over priced, due to there being little else for investors to pick over they are picking over what is already there for income.

But that's what you expect to see during this truly horrid period of Govt largesse. 

Next year we will see more of the same but a different year - 2021.



Love as always to Sophia & Jacks  💓



Join up at Share Investor


Wednesday, December 9, 2020

Trevor Mallard: We just want him to go

Trevor Mallard: False rape accuser
Trevor Mallard: False rape accuser and bum. 

                   


It would be cruel to call Trevor Mallard a bum. 

He has never interested me at all, except his rudeness, lack of tact, hitting politicians and others and just general lack of self awareness has me drawn to him.

This time he has gotten away with something he did last year. He accused someone of rape who worked for parliament, got them sacked and publicly drawn through the mud.

Turns out this man didn't do it. 

When this man - quite rightly - got a payout, Trevor Mallard was conciliatory.

BUT what happed was that Trevor got his bills paid by you and me - including the payout which is censored to the public.

Furthermore he goes unrecognized as the person he is - he's a narcissist - in the eyes of the law. A person who tells the public's at large that "this man is a rapist". Hardly something that yours truly would be proud of.

Instead of facing a courtroom for the deep deep deep lies and untruths he spoke he is well and truly on the road to something else in the future.

On second thoughts he is a bum AND that's putting it mildly.


c Darren Rickard 2020








Friday, October 16, 2020

Mainfreight: $100 dollars and up




Mainfreight just had a recent profit upgrade of 23% this week with a promise of more to come.

When it reached $24 intra-day briefly back in March it pretty much never looked back and has climbed ever since to touch an all-time high of $53.90c.

The big buying was back in Feb by Fisher Funds then again when it plumbed the depths in March. So you must take that on board when considering any purchases of this stock. It has gone up on relatively little stock - one or two million most days with sort of pepper potting of $5-6m of turnover.

But things are a foot. Management is pleased with the results getting new clients and seemingly thriving in this covid period when others have wilted. I would expect nothing else. AND question management if things were to flatten off BUT it hasn't.

So i will make a prediction. I expect to reach that $100 a share mark in around about 5 years with around $6B in revenues.

In between times I expect the stock to come off the boil soon AND that's when to buy. Perhaps next year when we are kinda going to have to face the facts that we - New Zealand Inc - are well and truly ....ed and the markets will start rocking again.

Until then DYOR and careful out there, there is only one of YOU.







Saturday, October 10, 2020

Contact Energy: Up or down from here?




The old chestnut rears its not so ugly head again.

Contact Energy.

I have traded/owned this stock since its was IPO'ed in 1998 at $3.10 - Around about its present NTA.

I have 30,000 shares of this in the portfolio. The majority of which i purchased this year during the depths of this govt-led recession. I have held the balance since 2011.

I have traded this stock up and down from IPO right up to over $10 - yes it was that price in the late noughties up to this year, 2020 when it briefly hit just above $4. It has gone up steadily since then - albeit for a brief couple of months when it lost about a buck overnight when the whole business over Tiwai Point occurred

It has been going up recently - on increased VOL - because it may soon be included in the New Zealand MSCI index. I have no idea whether it has been in the index before.

It MAY be worth a punt from todays close $7.85 on $10.5m worth of shares if you going for a short term thing.

It may even be worth getting for your portfolio as it is currently getting 4.97% net and you don't know what the reaction to covid-19 is going to be from the morons that Govern us.

Contact Energy is one of the safest bets on the market in these troubled times - and every time there is 'troubled times' Contact has been there.

The MSCI index result will be announced on November 11, with re-balancing occurring on November 30.

You dear reader may want to swing on this one.

DYOR!!





CEN @ Share Investor

Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 7
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 6
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 5 
Contact Energy look set to gain customers
I'm Buying: Contact Energy Ltd
Share Investor Portfolio 2: Value @ 7 July 2011
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 4
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 3
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 2
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd
Stock of the Week - Reprise 5: Contact Energy Ltd
Origin Energy asset stripping Contact Energy
Stock of the Week - Reprise 4: Contact Energy Ltd
Stock of the Week - Reprise 3: Contact Energy Ltd
Long Term View: Contact Energy Ltd
Stock of the Week: Reprise 2 - Contact Energy
Stock of the Week: Reprise - Contact Energy 
Not so fast Davy Boy
Still Watching Contact Energy
Beam me up Davy
Stock of the Week: Contact Energy
MarketWatch: Contact Energy - June 2009
MarketWatch: Contact Energy - Jan 2009
Contact Energy looks bright during dark times
Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks
Follow the Monopoly Board

Discuss this stock at Share Investor Group




Share Investor 2020

Friday, September 25, 2020

Why Hallensteins has the Advantage over Everyone Else



Hallensteins Glassons - HLG.

You know it's a well run company - I'd say the best company of its type anywhere in Australasia.

It does not have any debt and has cash in the bank. Whatever challenge it faced up to in its over 140 years of existence it has overcome that. Covid 19 will be no different.

In the area it operates in one thing is clear. The weaker competition is falling - including the recent influx of overseas brands.

Once a couple of these have got the tail between their legs and scuppered, from this part of the world or entirely - they all hold far too much debt. Hallensteins will be there to mop up the peices AND have far less competition!!

So Hallensteins will be planning right now to change, just how much change is up to conjecture but they will probably change anyway. Their online store is just one feature. The only change down at Hallensteins HQ will the fact that Covid 19 is just another one of those changes of a long list they been through before. 

One thing I constantly am appalled about and that is the comparions made between the economic fallout  from Covid 19 and the Great Depression.  It is by no means as serious as the Great Depression and is not likely to be unless something goes horribly wrong - that whole Great Depression/Recession thing annoys me. We have got a long way to go before we stoop to the depths of depravity those poor souls had to suffer - So Hallensteins passed the Great Depression.

Hallensteins will come out of this - Covid19 - in the same way. The way they have come out of the rest of the calamities than have befallen them. With a new approach to doing business.

For without that new approach combined with the old fashioned attitude towards debt Hallensteins Glassons Group would be yesterdays toast.




Now im no expert at share prices. I just know a great company when i see one. This little puppy plumbed the depths of about $1.80c just a couple of weeks ago. Right now its up on hope - its doubled in price to about $3.60c - hope that things will get started again - soon.

You could buy today or take your chances and buy on the bad news. Because there is more bad news - none moreso than any other stock on the nzx.com - to come with this stock.

DYOR.

  

Hallenstein Glasson @ Share Investor


Hallenstein Glasson: Buy
Hallenstein Glasson: What Do I Do?
Hallenstein Glasson: Sold By Days End?
Share Price Alert: Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd 3
Share Price Alert: Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd 2
Share Price Alert: Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
Hallenstein Glassons Ltd: Should I stay or should I Go?
Mixed Retail Outlook
Long Term View: Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
The History Of: Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
Hallenstein Guidance not indicative of wider retail recovery
Stock of the Week: Hallenstein Glasson
Hallenstein Glasson Australian expansion needs expert execution
Why did you buy that stock? [Hallenstein Glasson]

Discuss HLG @ Share Investor Group 



Share Investor 2020

Friday, September 18, 2020

Flying Close to the Sun




Im just sitting here at the moment pondering. I am sitting here on a beautiful Autumn day - 21 degrees - and Edinburgh is pretty much doing what it has been doing for the last 100 years. Going to work, largely

I guess you are sitting down at your computer and wondering when this #covid19 bullshit is going to stop.We must go "back to work" and that means most of the restrictions that we face in most parts of the globe - except Sweden where they have got it right - must be rescinded.

We have got companies and individuals that have been hurt fatally and many others that are right on the edge. 

Which brings me to the point of this post. Flying.

I have been on this route - from Hastings to Edinburgh for a couple of years with of little consequence except of course the length of the flight and i look up into the sky now whenever a plane fly's by because they are so few these days, to see where the plane is domiciled.

I was just watching CNBC and they had a full list of the Airline companies that have borrowed money and boy have they all collectively borrowed 10's of billions of green backs - remember this is CNBC. BUT taking a sweep over the lot of them - Delta American Airlines etc  looking at their market caps they are down around half of what they were trading at before this thing began back in Feb. HALF.

BUT trading has not returned to anything like half the biz they were once doing.

True they are doing much better than #airnewzealand and #Qantas is doing right now because in the US they rely far more on domestic than they do international for numbers of people through the door.

BUT i still remain highly skeptical about the Airline market as an investment. We all know of the impact our Govts have had on the market. This at the moment is a current thing. Things have not changed highly for the last 6 months. Yet these Airline companies are still "worth" billions - they are not.

The Airline market wasn't a money maker before 2020 and after that date things are looking very dicey - as a plane from Qatar fly's overhead, must be the only plane that i have heard today VS #precovid19 they were flying all the time - and the longer the knukkle draggers in parliament/s all across the world waggle their finger at us the dicier it does get.

But look at the market caps people, i wouldn't even get on the plane. I would be off at the internet booking and putting my money elsewhere.

May I suggest you are a masochistic if you don't.










c Shareinvestor 2020

 

Monday, July 27, 2020

Sky City: Covid-19 The Aftermath

The Sky Tower, Auckland - License, download or print for £12.40 ...


I have been a holder of Sky City shares for 20 years. 

In that time I have seen the company expand and grow with profit and revenue steadily increasing but not to the extent it did in the early noughties.

In the same time there were a lot of red hearings in terms of investments; The cinema, Darwin and a whole host of other failed experiments - some of them big some of them not so big.

I believe currently they have the mix about right. With their two sites in Adelaide and Auckland and a commercial - currently - online business.

HOWEVER, they have this #covid19 business to deal with also.

I believe that once again this remains on track and that all business will come back to #precovid19 levels. When is another question. We wont cover that here because there are far too many variables AND it will take a long time. 2 plus years.

In the mean time I believe that management are talking about a "much smaller" localized versions on both sides of the Tasman. That is, largely free from the tourist trade at the beginning. That means down on the tourist sector dollar from their hotels to their hospitality. 

But this means targeting a "new" punter, the local. 

AND that's easy. You just give the local punter enough incentive to get out there and spend. AND they will. Even with the coming recession. 

Their coming announcement out yest for the 2020 profit has been delayed approx 1 month and will be announced at the beginning of Sept. 

In it expect the usual #covid19 response that other companies will announce but in it also will be the nuggets of truth around what direction SKC will take us over the next few years of rebuilding. 

Just as an addendum: I believe you - businesses - have to treat #covid19 as another business. With all its competitive natures currently to the fore. Only then will you begin to spud off new shoots and grow again. 




Sky City Entertainment Group @ Share Investor

Sky City: Turmoil in Market Brings Bargains

Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd: The Americas Cup
Share Investor's 2016 Stock Picks
Sky City gets the 2nd deal
Sky City Expansion: Adelaide Spreads on the Riverbank
Sky City to pay for National Convention Centre
Share Investor discusses Convention Centre proposal with CEO Nigel Morrison
SKC Convention Centre power-point slide illustrations & SKC submission to Auckland City Council
Sky City Gaming: Morningstars look at Sky City's gaming
Share Investor's Total Returns: Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd: Presentation to Macquarie Group
Morningstar Revalues Sky City Entertainment Group
Guest Post - Michele Hewitson Interview: Nigel Morrison
Failed Sky City bid for Christchurch Casino good news for Shareholders
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd: Christchurch Casino bid falls short of Investment Criteria
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd: Never mind the width feel the volume
Sky City Annual Meeting & 2011 - 2012 Profit Forecast
Stock of the Week: Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
Sky City set to lose National Convention Centre bid
Sky City Entertainment Group: Australian Acquisition on the Cards?
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd: 2010 Full Year Profit Analysis
Sky City Entertainment Group 2010 Full Year Profit Preview
Chart of the Week: Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
Share Investor discusses Convention Centre proposal with CEO Nigel Morrison
Share Investor Q & A: Sky City CEO, Nigel Morrison
Sky City Entertainment: CEO Nigel Morrison discusses 2010 HY
Sky City Convention Centre Expansion a Money Loser: Part Two
Sky City Convention Centre Expansion a Money loser



Discuss SKC @ Share Investor Forum