Monday, April 24, 2017

Have Times Changed?

Image result for old vs new investors cartoon

It seems to me that since I have been invested in the market - 20 years this year with RBD as virginal player - that some things have changed but one thing has stayed the same. If you care to find out what has stayed the same you'll have to wait a tad - if you don't want to wait I don't care.

Go elsewhere.

It seems that people have just lost patience.

That is if people don't get what they want, when they want it they will simply just drop a stock - if it has a particularly tough time but is otherwise doing ok.

Now I haven't done a study into it, I'm just thinking as I put pen to paper but my take on this phenomenon is that it has some basis in fact.

You of course have the ideal institutional investors, like your ACC's and superannuation funds that have largely remained unchanged. They still have money in companies like FPH and MFT for the long term, regardless of short term fluctuations.

AND they are winners.

I'm talking about the individual investors such as myself, who because of technology and age - yes I'm aware that there are many investors far younger than me - are more aware of the ability because of the aforementioned tech and because of their changing investing personalities that are perhaps different from you and me - who may be a little older and think differently when it comes to investing.

Perhaps there's a wee bit of age differentiation from generation to generation and it happens naturally as we get older, we perhaps have different savings and investing goals than we did perhaps 20 years ago.

I don't know.

I didn't get my current investment profile straight away it was around 2007 that I starting reading books like Security Analysis and The Intelligent Investor that I formed the view - along with a hell of a lot of my own thinking - that the only form of investing that really mattered was long-term.

I think that this long-term/short-term thinking and its relevance to the current topic of conversation is the main rub - of sorts.

I still think investing has somewhat changed overall. The short term is, in my opinion a product of the internet and all that the internet has opened us up to the world - good and bad.

It just makes things faster.

AND don't you just love that word disruption.

Disruption to a business, it started with your Google's and has now upset the taxicab business, hotel business and on and on....

Everything seems to have changed to a more I want that now and if I can't have it now I don't want it.

To be fair there are those rarities who have got to the long-term investing thing so much earlier than I and they range across all ages.

I really havent changed much since 2002 when I bought the bulk of my portfolio.

What I am hoping to change is my reactions to what happens in the market - instead of reactions after the fact I want to react before they happen and that will mean watching closer than I have done before - if that's possible!

I finally have got rid of the WHS shares and it seems, while I reacted far too slowly, I reacted quickly enough to get a decent price. They are now selling for a lot less.

Like you're differences between the WHS and HLG. Hallensteins are making an impact online wearas The Warehouse seem to be all over the place with their offerings and barely make in impact.

Why is it that in a world of HLG vs WHS, why does HLG continue to innovate while the WHS remains stale and staid.

That perhaps a title of another column for another day.

Happy long term (and short term)investing.

Related Share Investor reading

For a taste of your Whisky

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The Intelligent Investor: Book review

The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) (Collins Business Essentials)The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) (Collins Business Essentials) by Benjamin Graham
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c Share Investor 2017

Thursday, April 20, 2017

The Warehouse Ltd: Time Ladies & Gentlemen

  AIA 30 day price history

Its time this company woke up well and truly and shook themselves into the real world. 

The Warehouse Group Ltd [WHS.NZX] is currently worth about $745 million dollars, some $250m less than when we last visited this on March 12.

At this rate the share price will collapse once it reaches that important psychological $2 mark.

Its not looking good for their next result in September and going out and selling their Newmarket property is just the last bastion to ward of the creditors.

Those at head office must be nervous - about what to sell next and about the reality of their situation that nobody wants to shop there and certainly nobody wants to invest in it.

No, not even those that own Farmers are interested anymore (at current prices) and are probably waiting for a spectacular collapse as we move closer to the September result.

I await with interest!

The Warehouse Group @ Share Investor

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Discuss WHS @ Share Investor Forum - Register free 
Download WHS company reports

Security Analysis: Sixth Edition, Foreword by Warren Buffett (Security Analysis Prior Editions)Security Analysis: Sixth Edition, Foreword by Warren Buffett (Security Analysis Prior Editions) by Benjamin Graham
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Thursday, April 13, 2017

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd: The Time to Buy

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd [FPH.NZX] . If you are a regular reader of this blog over the last 10 years or just a recent convert you will know that I am in love with this stock.

I bought It over many years AND I bought it for a good price.

It currently returns well over 10% p/a and I expect it to increase substantially as the years tick over.

If you are a holder well done but if you're not when is a good time to buy?

My answer to this is not complicated. 

The first thing to remember is that I didn't buy the bulk of my holding until January 2012 and that was after having it on my watchlist for many years.

I bought, because the shares were good value - mainly due to the lower value of the kiwi/US dollar cross.

The lower it goes the less money Fisher & Paykel Healthcare make when it is converted back into kiwi dollars.

Unless there has been a drastic change in the structure of the dollar market this same effect will happen again - no matter how much Fisher & Paykel hedge against the US dollar.

This should have an impact on the share price.

Nothing wrong with the company just the relationship to its various branches - in this case the US one.

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare @ Share Investor

Share Investor's 2012 Stock Picks
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Mondrian Investment Partners take stake in Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare: 2010 Full Year Profit rests on Foreign exchange movement
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Analysis - Fisher & Paykel Healthcare: FY Profit to 31/03/09
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Drinking and Trading
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Fisher & Paykel: A tale of two companies
FPH downgrade masks good performance

Discuss FPH @ Share Investor Forum
Download FPH Company Reports

Share Investor 2017

Tuesday, April 4, 2017

Share Price Alert: Port of Tauranga Ltd 3

Port of Tauranga Ltd [POT.NZX] looks like it's creeping towards the 4 buck range.

If you, like me, are watching this closely it looks like it could breach that magical 4 buck mark.

As I write shares are trading at $4.15 but have been lower today at $4.07.

No news out just trading for the sake of it.

In absence of bad news I might put a bid in at $3.95.

Better value than when we last looked at it on Feb 27.

POT @ Share Investor

POT: Is it Worth Getting Back In?
Port of Auckland Dispute:Time to Move On
Share Price Alert: Port of Tauranga Ltd 2 
Share Price Alert: Port of Tauranga Ltd
Long Term View: Port Of Tauranga Ltd
Port in a storm
Ports of Auckland put a shot over competitor's bow

Discuss POT @ Share Investor Forum
Download POT Company Reports

Shareinvestor 2017