Thursday, March 24, 2022

Fisher and Paykel Healthcare Ltd is a "different company" 2 years down the Track

2 Year Fisher and Paykel Healthcare Chart

Fisher and Paykel just finished trading at $25.70 yesterday. Far off its high of $36.55c plus dividends but this isn't the same company it was back 2 years ago.

Back "precovid" it was trading at NZ $1,273,400,000 of revenue on 30.3.20 and just a year latter on 30.3.21 it was trading at NZ $1,948,200,000. 

In the same time profit went from a record $ NZ 287,000,000 to a record $ NZ 524,000,000.

It was trading at $30.43 on the same date.

Now when yesterday "news" came out (common knowledge) that things were going to slow down to $1.675 billion and $1.70b in the current financial year to March 31. You can see that the market looks like it is getting ahead of itself. $36 million odd traded on the NZX and $33 million on the ASX. 

It doesn't take a genius to work out the figures and the notion that things have changed in that short year for the company. It's just so much bigger. The figures reflect that.

Of course what makes share investing special is that as soon as news comes out that's "detrimental" to the company, shares usually go off in a tangent - much like they did yesterday.

How much more downside there is I do not know. It could recover somewhat today or continue to drop. My bet is that it will continue to drop until the also rans are shaken out - the fly by nighters, we don't need them!!

Until then I will be watching as much as you in case they become a buy for me again. I own the bulk of my holding at $2.16 a share. Since 2005.

Happy investing.

c Shsre Investor 2022

Friday, February 18, 2022

Hallenstein Glasson: To buy or not to buy that is the question?

Images from Hallenstein Glasson.

I'm not going to tell you to buy or sell Hallensteins Glasson (HLG) shares cause that's not what I'm about. I'm merely going to tell you why the market has got it wrong yesterday - it sold HLG shares down 28c on VOL of $788,000. Quite significant for this share because it usually only trades about $100,000 shares on a good day. What I'm going to do in the light of results coming out yesterday is give you a case for and against. Remember I have been following this share for 20 years and I have traded in and out of this puppy quite successfully and currently hold 30000 which currently "owe me" about $NZ 7000. The next reporting date on March 25 they will owe me nothing. I will in effect own them for nix.

Anyway back to results out yesterday. Even without HLG being mucked around with by both the New Zealand and the Australian Govts last year and this year trading under extreme circumstances we have seen sales only impacted by 6.2% down. That’s pretty special and put that down to the fast increasing online sales which comprise a third of companies sales. This is special because HLG has only really been a significant sales driver in the last 2 or 3 years where online sales have increased from 10% to the 33% it is today.

This is only impacted more by increased operating costs - logistics and the like - due to the current refusal of the govts - on other side of the Tasman - to recognize the science of this “sniffle” that we have been going thru.

But this to shall pass - if you are a trucker you have my support. Literally.

Let me go back to my and Hallensteins history a bit. I have been following this stock for 20 years and have researched it well.

It has always been a cyclical stock. I have picked it up anywhere between $2 bucks and $5.80c. Heaps of people have owned it. Australians got in a few years ago and bought up large and then exited - they lost money on it. 

A few years ago the company got the Glasson's part of the relationship right and since then - apart from March 2020 - it has been trading over 6 bucks and $7.00 at one stage. The company looks like they continue to get Glasson's right and they have grown sales substantially - almost double what it was. Previously it had been traded between $2 and about $4

You have got to understand this company and it’s shares and how they trade perhaps more than any other listed share on the NZX. Because they are tightly held. AND usually thinly traded. One person owns about 20% of this stock and many others who have been shareholders in this company have held stock “forever” because they realize and value for during its many ups and downs.

I will dip my toes back in when/if the share has a 5 in front of it. That is possible. The market doesn't know how to value this stock and that's fine by me!! Its much more interested in the "larger cap" stocks. Obviously this stock can be bought in a large range of prices depending on the day and the frequency of trades. Especially right now where there's "uncertainty" whipped up by misunderstood "journalists".

It doesn’t carry any debt. Never has and has been a good payer of Divs since it listed back in 1947. It has operated over 3 centuries and has negotiated many many changes. I think it has the change right so to speak.

Better on the down low - where Hallensteins comes from - it is conservative with a capital C. Conservative in its management of the company, conservative in what it has to say to the market. In every aspect of the business. Conservative. I LOVE that.  

May you come to your own conclusion on this company.

Happy trading/investing


c Share Investor 2022

Saturday, February 12, 2022

War: What is it good for - Investing

With a possible war on the Horizon between Russia and the Ukraine one has to wonder should I get in now while the market is down?   

Sleepy Joe Biden will have a call with Putin Sat morn (UK time). So any action on the NZ market may hinge on how the call goes.

Either way it causes uncertainty and confusion and that's what markets hate.

The DOW, Nasdaq et all had a horrible last couple of hours.

If there is a skirmish and it goes on for some time that is "good" - on the whole - for the investor because usually the uncertainty in the market would tend to put pressure on some to sell and you should pick closely what you want.

I've had my eye on Ryman Healthcare. It finished trading at $ NZ 9.78c on Friday (NZ time) On pretty good VOL indicating people think its a good buy at these levels.

I think RYM will come under further pressure (along with many stocks listed on the NZX) so I will watch closely for a chink in the amour of RYM. It could be that investors see the stock as good value at $9.78c and keep on buying.

But if not I will be there watching waiting to pounce.

One other stock that I have also been buying is Napier Port. It traded at $3.03c and will fill my boots again if/when it slips below 3 bucks.

Happy trading/investing for me!!


Tuesday, December 21, 2021

Share Investor’s 2022 Stock Pick: Why I disagree with almost all Analysts on Pfizer

I initially bought some Pfizer shares about 2 or 3 months ago when they were about $42. I could have, should have, didn't when they were on my horizon at about $33.00. 

I initially was going to get into it short term but the more articles I read about it and the more reading I did about its history and the reasons for its recent lag in share price - it took years to put on about 7 bucks - the more I took a shine to it. 

So a parked the short term bus and ordered up a bigger truck.

Of course we all know what happened to this stock over the last year or so.

The prospects for this company are huge. Just avoid looking at the covid drugs/vaccines which analysts say are responsible for maybe up to a third of this calendar years earnings. Look at all the other drugs they already have and that are in the pipeline - there are many many of them which I wont list here, just google it.

On covid. 

With the pandemic really only just getting started I have read in countless articles that 2022 is going to be bigger than 2021 with the possibility of Pfizer tipping over the $100B mark for revenue and 3 or 4 doses recommended globally.

I can see the point reached where we each get a yearly or bi yearly booster once the omicron point is passed and we get onto the next one which possibly will be less of a "threat to humankind" until the next one and so on and so forth.

We really have to get Pfizer and Moderna et al out to those regions that can not afford it - for the western worlds own good. There maybe some pushback from Western leaders but this must be done if we are going to contain this disease.

So that's my take on Pfizer.

The range of analysts I've seen go from $51 to $75. But the majority are in the middle, about $60 bucks.

Ill be buying this stock at a limit of $59 and about 2.7 PA %.

I currently own around 73 shares BUT I hope to get a lot more if it dips below my magical figure.

Its going in my bottom draw.

I also recommend getting some Coke, Napier Port and the following BUT as always it’s up to you what you want. DYOR.


I also recommend you be patient - getting any of these on further weakness because the NZ stock market looks set to lose big time in 2022 as does the rest of the world in my humblest of opinions.✌😎