I have to admit Goodman Fielder Ltd [GFF.NZX]is not one of my better investments. It has returned roughly zilch in the 5 years I have held it.
Never mind, this piece isnt about my poor investment choices but about timing your purchase at the right price.
An opportunity to buy has arisen today after a profit warning marking down FY 2011 profit to a range between $140 - 150 million. The share price has retreated today by 13c or just above 8% to close at $1.44 today. It reached an intra day low of $1.40 and this is the 52 week low. A high of 2 bucks back in November 2010 shows how much value the company has lost in just 6 months.
Profit has been impacted by higher commodity prices and unfavourable exchange rates - a common theme for this company for the last few years - and management have seen fit to move prices for their brands higher to recover those increased costs but too late to recover for the full year outlook.
Consumer pressure on price is going to make it hard going for the company to recover these costs as long as the current recession bites and consumers are tending to settle for non brand goods instead of buying some of the pricier brands that GFF offers.
All is not lost though, these Goodman brands are some of the best in the business, are staples on the family table and will continue to be sold and increase in sales when the economy returns to some sort of "normality".
The current share price returns a gross dividend of slightly over 9%, which is clearly a very attractive income given term investment rates of less than half this.
I am picking more softness in this share though and if you have been looking to buy this stock anyway patience is going to get this stock into your portfolio for less than the current share price.
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Goodman Fielder @ Share Investor
Long Term View: Goodman Fielder Ltd
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