It has been nearly 4 months since the Share Investor 2011 Stock Picks and I thought it might be appropriate now to look back at how those picks have done. Please keep in mind that my criteria for picking stocks is long term gains and also that the stockmarket as a whole has risen in the 4 months (see 6 month chart below) that has passed so any gains must factor in these two key points.
I am discovering any gains and losses from my picks as I write this post rather than looking at them first and then making a decision to publish, so you, dear readers, will discover how well or badly I did as I did.
I will outline below what price the stock was picked at and how much it has gained or lost since the stock picks came out on December 17 2010.
Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks: Looking back
Picks from the NZX
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Picked at $3.06c on December 17 2011 and reaching a post pick high of $3.23, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at $3.06c.
Picked at $2.38c on December 17 2011 and reaching a post pick high of $3.16, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at $2.50c.
A 5% gain.
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
Picked at $3.23c on December 17 2011, with the addition of a 8c net dividend, and reaching a post pick high of $3.50, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at $3.41c.
A 8% gain.
Charlies Group Ltd
A 54% gain.
Michael Hill International Ltd
Picked at 85c on December 17 2011, with the addition of a 1.5c net dividend and reaching a post pick high of 92c, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at 88c.
A 5% gain.
New Zealand Refining Ltd
Picked at $4.20c on December 17 2011, with the addition of a 10c net dividend and reaching a post pick high of $5.20c, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at $4.75c.
A 20% gain.
New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd
Picked at 86c on December 17 2011, reaching a post pick high of 94c, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at 94c.
A 10% gain.
Minor NZX Picks
Kathmandu Holdings Ltd [KMD.NZX]
A 42% gain.
Port of Tauranga Ltd [POT.NZ]
A 14% gain
Auckland International Airport Ltd [AIA.NZX]
A 6% gain.
Telecom NZ Ltd [TEL.NZX]
A 6% loss.
Fisher & Paykel Appliances Ltd [FPA.NZX]
A 15% gain.
Tatts Group Ltd [TTS.ASX] A 10% loss.
Tabcorp Holdings Ltd [TAH.ASX] A 3% gain.
Reef Casino Trust[RCT.ASX] A 5% loss.
Yum ! Brands Inc [YUM.NASDAQ] A 0% gain.
Conclusion & Outlook for 2011
Returns ranged from a 10% loss for Tatts Group Ltd [TTS.ASX] up to a 54% gain for Charlies Group Ltd [CHA.NZX]. Averaged out my 2011 share picks have returned an average net return of 10.33% over slightly less than 4 months if I included them in equal portions in a portfolio. This compares to a return of 4% for the NZX50 as a whole. (see NZX50 chart at top of post)
The market overall appears to be overvalued to me - with the exception of one or two stocks that have lost some value - and I have not bought any shares for well over a year now. My own portfolio has gained 13% since I began re-tracking it for this blog back in October 2010 and I cant see the market gaining much more for 2011 due to very poor global economic conditions and uncertainty as to where the globe is heading in the short to medium term.
Disclosure : I own FPH, WHS, SKC, MHI, AIA, shares in the Share Investor Portfolio.
Share Investor's Annual Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2010 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2008 stock picks
Brokers 2011 Stock Picks
Related Amazon Reading
The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) by Benjamin Graham
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Security Analysis: The Classic 1934 Edition by GRAHAM
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c Share Investor 2010 & 2011