Stockmarket Education: How do you buy shares?

Like a piece I wrote a few days ago called Stockmarket Education: What is a Share? the following was inspired by a Google search that reached this blog "How to buy Shares?"

Another bloody good question.

Well, unfortunately one of the first things you will need to do is get yourself a stockbroker.(I say unfortunately because I don't particularly have a high opinion of them) The most popular ways of getting yourself access to one these days is online. One can do this either by hooking up with a dedicated broker that just deals in sharetrading or through your own bank, which in most cases in New Zealand and other countries has a broker service attached to it.

These online brokers, some of which also have telephone services, offer either a "self service" level of brokerage where you do all the research, and selection of shares and execute the buy or sell yourself ranging to a "full service" broker that will do all of the above for you and more if you trade enough!

Beware, and it is only my personal opinion and experience here, full service brokers will try and push their favourite shares on you and their research is more than often than not biased and sometimes suspect in its accuracy and/or knowledge of business or the company being researched. Their loyalties lie with the brokerage company first, not you.

That is why I prefer to use an online broker and do the rest myself. Pick the level of service that is right for you.

The only extra services that I get with my online broker, ASB Securities are:

1. A website with a portfolio and watchlist function.

2. Live share prices with limited market depth - a list of buyers and sellers and the prices being offered and asked.

3. Brief bios of the NZSX companies listed on the NZX - financial ratios, broker ratings.

4. A link to a cash management account through ASB Bank that makes it easy to transfer funds to facilitate share purchases.

When making a buy or sell of a share online you can either sell "at market" (what buyers or sellers on the open market are prepared to pay or sell for) or a pre-determined share price set by you.

The best part of buying online and doing it yourself is that you can do the research at your leisure and set a a buy or sell in off-market hours and the trade will then be made at the price you requested.

The cost for the self service online level of brokerage varies from broker to broker but trading using my online broker, is around NZ$30.00 for a trade of up to NZ$10,000 and at a level of 0.3% brokerage over that. Large trades can be negotiated.

You can find a list of Australian brokers here and New Zealand ones here.

Good luck!

Stockmarket Education

Stockmarket Dictionary
Stockbrokers: What you should know before choosing one
10 Basic questions to ask before investing
How the Stockmarket works
Understanding Risk
Watch Your Risk Tolerance
Stockmarket Education: What is a Share?
What Moves the Stockmarket?
7 Signs of Shareholder Friendly Management
Financial Media For Investors
Dividends in detail

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NZX - How to Invest


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c Share Investor & Shareinvestor.net.nz 2009

Analysis - Mainfreight Ltd: FY Profit to 31/03/09

Mainfreight Ltd [MFT.NZ] FY 2009 profit out today confirmed a slowdown in sales for the company and highlighted a tough environment for the coming 12 months. Having said that the current result was a good one.

Key Points:

1. Revenue increase of 39% to a record $NZ 1.27 billion (excluding forex gains up 28%)

2. Net surplus before abnormals of $NZ 40.00 million, on par with prior year.

3. First half of year good growth, second very poor, indicating the full impact of the global slowdown, with a marked downturn in the last quarter.

4. A focus on cutting operating costs over the period of downturn in the business/economy.

5. A hat-tip to carbon emissions, noting they must take them into account because of political interference in this area of their business, but it is costing them.

6. Cashflow up strongly.

7. Debt increased significantly from $79.89 to $115.28 million.


The outlook for the company is uncertain and given poor economic indicators and a continued slowing performance in the latest quarter of business, profit is going to be down for the 2009/10 year.

They say this will be ameliorated somewhat by focusing on cost cutting, delaying capital expenditure and growing the business organically where they can - very sensible.

Given that the logistics business is one sector of the economy that is often badly affected during a recession, management at Mainfreight seemed to have managed the business well considering the slowdown in cousumer demand world-wide and the resultant drop in export/import and local logistics being used in their operations worldwide.

8.5 out of 10 for me.

The stockmarket however has reacted negatively to this result, marking shares down 39c or 6.33% to NZ$4.59 at market close today.

Disc I own MFT shares.


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c Share Investor 2009

Stockmarket Education: What is a Share?

This little piece originated from a search that found its way to this blog; "What is a share?"

I sort of take this for granted and cant really remember asking this question because I think I already knew what a share was and perhaps that the word was self explanatory of its meaning.

It isn't dumb question though.

Lets see it we can give this question a reasonably intelligent answer because it is important that beginners in the stockmarket know and those that think we know(like yours truly)might find out something we don't.

This is how I would describe a share to a beginner.

Basically when you buy a shares (or stock, security, equity) in a company, in our example a listed company on a stock exchange, your shares get you ownership of a small part of that company and some of the attendant rights of an owner of that company.

Some of these are:

1. A share of profits -through provision of dividends distributed to shareholders.

2. Voting rights on remuneration for management and fees for directors.

3. Votes on selected business associated with areas of the company.


There are also responsibilities.

Some of these are:

1. The company may ask shareholders for additional capital from time to time to help run the business.

2. Keep an eye on the health of the company by reading company reports and third party research written.

The shares in the company that you have part-ownership in have a monetary value and that value can differ from day to day, week to week and year to year and you can add to your ownership or dispense with that ownership at any time but at different values depending on the time you sell-just like any business you might have full ownership over.

Shares are bought and sold using a stockbroker or sharebroker or through issues of company capital through IPOs and various other ways.

What you have if you own shares in a company then are certain rights and responsibilities, much like those that the sole owner of a business but as a part shareholder some of the rights that a majority owner has over the running of a business do not apply to you.

1. You do not have a say in the day to day running of the business.

2. Your vote in any proposition put to shareholders can be voted down if the majority don't fall your way

3. Your shareholding can be sold against your will if there is a takeover or merger that the majority of shareholders vote for, even if you vote not to sell.

Some people don't look at a share as owning a part of a business, just some sort of esoteric measurement of how much a company might be worth on a day to day basis but I and many others do, for that is exactly what a share is.

You are part owner of a business and your shares make you a business owner.


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"Climate Change" theory hits business bottom line

From the Mainfreight Ltd [MFT.NZ] 2009 FY profit announcement today comes a management commentary piece about Government red tape and its associated cost.

Don Braid usually has a well placed go at Government bureaucracy when it comes to profit season and his target this time is "climate change" and carbon emissions and it is one of the largest pieces of commentary in the profit release on one subject:

Mainfreight has always attempted to reduce the environmental impact of its operations. Our sustainability initiatives have often resulted in reduced costs; so the bottom line and the environment are both winners.

Real or not, climate change is fast becoming a core strategic issue for businesses everywhere. For Mainfreight, it begins with accepting that our business is based on an activity that generates carbon emissions and then taking responsibility to reduce those emissions over time; without negatively impacting on our competitiveness.

Last year we commenced a programme of measuring the carbon emissions in our business in New Zealand with a view to extending this measurement to other countries where we have a presence, and to reducing our emissions per tonne of freight moved. We made this information available to the public through our annual report and other avenues.

This year however, we have been faced with significantly increased costs and bureaucracy from the Government departments which oversee carbon emissions, and while as a business we will continue our programme of measurement and reduction to support our long-held policies of environmental responsibility, we have chosen not to incur the substantial costs involved in the audit and certification processes that are now demanded. We believe that incurring these costs would not provide a measurable benefit and therefore would not be in the best interests of our shareholders.

Don Braid, Mainfreight Managing Director

It is good to see the middle finger being extended to the bureaucracy and cost associated with it but what is clear from Bruce's revelation is that the "climate change" zealots in our midst are costing businesses millions and this will be the same with any other business, be it a logistics company which would be heavily impacted by "climate change" red tape to a business such as Sky City Entertainment [SKC.NZ] while less severely impacted would be impacted nonetheless.

All because of a mythical theory that the planet is warming.

It would be interesting to get comments by management from other CEOs of listed New Zealand companies to see how much it is costing their businesses. I have yet to see such comment from anyone, which is odd considering the substantial tax on company profits.


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c Share Investor 2009

Analysis - Fisher & Paykel Healthcare: FY Profit to 31/03/09

Lets take a quick look at today's profit announcement for Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd [FPH.NZ]

Key Points:

1. Real revenue growth up by 10% to US$299.3 million.

2. Profit up over 70% and revenue up 28% is an excellent result- In New Zealand dollar terms.

3. A big contribution from a favourable exchange rate.

4. Nice contribution from the sleep apnea products.

5. Steady DIV of 7 cents - a DIV re-investment plan to be initiated.

6. Outlook positive for 2009-2010.

The stockmarket has reacted negatively to this result, marking shares down 20c at time of writing because profit guidance by management for the next year is lower than expected by analysts.

On first glance this might frighten the unwary FPH shareholder but if you have been watching the US/NZ dollar exchange rate you will know that this had favoured the company in a major way over the last year and as revenue is reported in kiwi dollars this has had the effect of boosting revenue higher than real revenue growth from increased sales.

This favourable boost to company revenue through exchange rate crosses is not going to continue over the coming year and may in fact negatively impact the bottom line, as it has done in the past.

These facts are already known by the market and there should be no surprise to anyone about the exchange rate factor and its effect on company profit. Shareholders shouldn't expect the same "windfall" profits next year.

All I can say is the analysts put the anal in their name -try looking outside the office next time you quote forward profit projections.

Of course the material sales revenue figures are the all important ones and must be the main stress in this profit report and that has increased 10% to US$299.3 million-mostly on the back of their sleep sector products.

Shareholders should take note that the company is still growing, and your focus needs to be on the bottom line health of the business and not on exchange rate fluctuations which will occur regardless of what the company does.

The company like the name, is in good health.

You can find the full Fisher & Paykel Healthcare FY 2009 profit announcement here .

Disclosure I own FPH shares


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Stock of the Week: Fisher & Paykel Appliances

This is the beginning of a new a column. A regular outing, I will pick one stock that may have been in the news - good or bad-or one that simply takes my fancy and recommend that investors might like to take another look at it to see if it fits their investment profile.




The inaugural Stock of the Week pick is Fisher & Paykel Appliances [FPA.NZ]. Long given a good stiff verbal beating by my good self over many years the main reason why I am picking this stock for closer scrutiny is the ability for you short term investors out there for you to make a quick buck rather than the slow and sometimes painful ones that I make.

Yes, yes, yes you could have bought at NZ 37c a few weeks back but the company's future survival wasn't clear at that point.

The stock closed at 66c on Friday and is on a trading halt until this Wednesday 27 May.

It seems there is to be some material news out this Wednesday in regard to the success or otherwise of its capital raising process.

It seems likely that the news is going be that some kind of finance has been found to keep the company going, at least for the short to medium term, with a 200 million rights issue mooted by BusinessDay over the weekend, the main reason given by FPA management for putting a trading halt on today.

There is some life left in this beast yet, how much we cannot be too sure, but there is short to medium term money to be made if one gets in early on positive news after trading is lifted on Wednesday. The short-term money to be made will be on buying quickly on Wednesday and flicking shares off to those who want to participate in the rumoured capital raising (it could actually be a cornerstone shareholder instead of or as well as) or buying quickly and holding medium to longer term hoping that the company can trade its way out of its current financial, revenue and profit troubles.

It is worth a look at and I will be taking a cursory glance at it on the big day to see if I can gain any benefit from it, as I am not against a short term punt myself.

Good luck.

Fisher & Paykel Appliances @ Share Investor

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c Share Investor 2009

Whats on Rod Duke's shopping list?

So Rod Duke and his Briscoe Group [BGR.NZ] have again expressed an interest in buying retailers in New Zealand.

I wrote a few months back about Duke's great pile of cash and it seems he has ideas burning a whole in his wallet as well.

He has been buying up a bigger share of Pumpkin Patch for his personal portfolio over the last year or so as the share price got cheaper but just what the hell has he got his eyes on?

He has NZ$62 million cash to play with.

Let me have a bit of a stab in the dark and tell you why.

Please keep in mind that I own shares in a large number of listed New Zealand retailers!


My Shopping List

Briscoe Group [BGR.NZ] The stock price is low, the company doing well and has no debt. Why wouldn't you buy back shares in your own company while they are low. Pumpkin Patch has been doing just that.

Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL.NZ] Duke already has a 10% stake in this company and so does a potential competitor of his for retail buys, Jan Cameron. Nevertheless he has built up his personal stake over time and it would be a coup to be able to manage this prestigious international brand.

Postie Plus Group [PPG.NZ] Struggling a bit in the past, they are doing allot better over recent times with higher sales and better margins. Their very low share price makes them a target for takeover and at less than NZ$15 million market cap Duke could swallow this company whole without batting an eyelid. They have a retail brand in Baby City that would be quite attractive to any retailer. The only major stumbling block is that Jan Cameron, the wiz retailer, who loves to buy distressed retailers owns 15% of the company.

Tasman Pacific Food Group The owner operator of Burger King in New Zealand and Australia, it has been struggling for years under competition from McDonald's and recently sold off its Hell Pizza brand for a loss. Vulnerable to a decent bid.

Burger Fuel WorldWide [BFW.NZ] A gourmet burger maker with 30 or so outlets, its NZ$16 million odd market cap makes it vulnerable. It has never made money and will continue to struggle to do so. Sales are suffering in the current recession. It will need additional capital to continue and a cornerstone shareholder such as Duke would be perfect.

Hallenstein Glasson Group [HLG.NZ] Like any retailer Hallenstein Glasson is suffering lower sales and lower margins. It is doing better than most clothing retailers but is vulnerable over the slow winter sales period.

Michael Hill International [MHI.NZ] This well run jewelry chain with over 200 outlets in 4 different markets is suffering a downturn from shoppers shunning discretionary sales and its share price is vulnerably low. There are many other Jewelry chains of various sizes in New Zealand that are similarly good targets for Duke's cash pot.

The electronics sector is going to consolidate during this year or next. Every retailer in that sector is suffering extremely badly and various chains are going to go to the wall in the next year or two.

Bad retailers who have high debt, high stock levels, poor locations and high operating costs are going to come under pressure the most. Even good retailers will be vulnerable if the retail slowdown continues for any great length.

Duke's advantage now comes because he and his Briscoe Group first had no debt and then reacted to the recession about a year ago by running down inventories and cutting those aforementioned and all important operating costs- it also helps that his stores are not inside Westfield Malls, they charge very high rents!

This gives him a big advantage over retailers like MHI, HLG, The Warehouse Group [WHS.NZ] and many other retailers Duke might have his eyes on because it is a major cost for any retailer and is often the difference between retail life and death.

I cant wait to see what will be in his shopping trolley.


Disc I own BGR, WHS, PPG, PPL, HLG and MHI shares


Briscoe Group @ Share Investor

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c Share Investor 2009

Share Investor Portfolio: 22 May 2009

The Share Investor Portfolio now contains 17 stocks listed on the NZSX. The bulk of the portfolio started back in 2002 and I have added to the bulk of it by using dividends and some cash.

The Share Investor Portfolio as at 22 May 2009

• Auckland International Airport [AIA] 3000
  
• ASB Capital NO. 2 Ltd [ASBPB] 10000
• Briscoe Group Ltd [BGR] 3000
• Fletcher Building Ltd [FBU] 1114
• Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corp Ltd [FPH] 5000
• Freightways Ltd [FRE] 8200
• Goodman Fielder Ltd [GFF] 2000
  
• Halleinstein Glasson Ltd [HLG] 1000
• Kiwi Income Property Trust [KIP] 1000
• Mainfreight Ltd [MFT] 3125
• Michael Hill International Ltd [MHI] 3000
• Postie Plus Ltd [PPG] 2535
  
• Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL] 5000
• Ryman Healthcare Ltd [RYM] 5000
• Sky City Entertainment [SKC] 35000
• Steel & Tube Holdings Ltd [STU] 400
• The Warehouse Group Ltd [WHS] 8000
  

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Why did you buy that stock? [Fletcher Building Ltd]
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Why did you buy that stock? [Fisher & Paykel Healthcare]
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Why did you buy that stock? [Ryman Healthcare]
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Why did you buy that stock? [Mainfreight Ltd]
Why did you buy that stock? [The Warehouse Group]
Why did you buy that stock? [Goodman Fielder]
Why did you buy that stock? [Auckland Airport]
Why did you buy that stock? [Sky City Entertainment]


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c Share Investor 2008,2009

Banking Madness!

My adventures with Bryce the Banker have kept myself and many others amused and there is yet another tale to be told about the ASB in Albany and its approach to customers now that the economic wolves are seemingly at their customer's doors.

When I visited Bryce the last time I asked him what the chances of me getting a loan to buy an investment property was.

He kind of laughed nervously and mentioned it was harder now than it was a year or so back but thinking to myself, considering I seemed to be the only middle class Kiwi who didn't buy an investment house during the housing boom, I now thought it was a good time to buy one.

Consider this:

1. Housing is approaching realistic asking prices
2. Your expenses are now likely to be recouped by the rent received
3. Interest rates are lower by at least 2% than during the boom

But then also think about this:

Even though my financial position is now stronger than it was a few years back and the investment case to buy a house for rental purposes is much more attractive, the ASB Bank and probably yours too is unwilling to lend as much money for that purpose.

Interesting that in some cases at the height of the housing boom that banks were lending more than 100% mortgages and throwing money at monkeys while now they will barely consider you even though you now back their deposits and lending through your taxes.

A case for some contrary investment thinking, in other words good sound financial practice, is clearly needed within our banks and the staff that they employ.

Treat each customer and lending case on its own individual financial merits and you will please your good customers and keep your CEO from losing sleep at night.

End of lesson.

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c Share Investor 2009

Schroder Investment Management takes big Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Stake

Back in August last year I wondered whether Schroder Investment Management, a large multinational investment company, had added to their large Fisher & Paykel Healthcare [FPH.NZ] shareholding (they didn't) but they have been making large share movements in that area this year.



After ditching about 25% of their holding on March 19 (PDF) to take their position to 4.7% of total FPH shares issued, today in an NZX disclosure (PDF) it was revealed that Schroders have taken their holding to just under the magic 10% mark, their biggest shareholding in the company to date.

I make no bones about it, I see this company as one of the NZXs stars and pick it as one of the best long-term performers for the next ten years if the last ten are anything to go by. Having Schroders take such a large stake certainly gives pause for thought that I actually might have known what I was doing when I bought shares in the company but as I pointed out in that August article Schroders share the same investment style that I do so it is no surprise that both of us would make the same pick:

We are long-term investors: establishing the fair value of a security takes the discipline to avoid being caught up in market fashions and the confidence to be contrarian when necessary. We focus on the ability of a business to generate sustainable value and earnings growth. We look at the quality, as well as quantity, of earnings and we meet company managers and ensure that we fully understand their marketplace and business strategy. We believe that, over time, the mis-pricing of stocks versus fair value will be recognised by the market, and that our long-term approach to research will lead to long-term outperformance.

Having said that, Schroders did sell a small portion of their holding in March and I have no idea as to why (one can only assume for a short-term profit) but increasing their holding to just below 10% is certainly an interesting move.

As their statement above suggests they have been buying FPH at relative bargain prices compared to historical values and to be sure any serious "mis-pricing" of this stock in comparison to its concrete revenue and profit results will see this small shareholder take advantage of that situation.

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare will be reporting its Full Year 2009 profit results Tuesday May 26, 10.00am (NZ Time) - A conference call will be held at 1.00pm to discuss the results and you can listen to it here.

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c Share Investor 2009

Good Morningstar

News out in New Zealand's Business media today about Morningstar's (incidentally a Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett owned vehicle) ranking of our mutual funds sector and I would argue as a spin-off the NZ financial sector as a whole, should be of surprise to those who only read the sports pages and gossip and perhaps the hapless Mark Weldon, CEO of the NZX.

New Zealand ranked a D minus rating.

As far as my major sphere of interest goes, the stockmarket, I have been banging on about how "wild west" our stockmarket regulation and oversight have been in this respect for 10 years.

The guts from Morningstar for me:

Morningstar researchers evaluated and scored countries in six categories—investor protection, prospectuses and shareholders’ reports, transparency in sales practices and the media, fees and expenses, taxation, and distribution practices. Read full article PDF format

"Investor protection" and "transparency" are two major planks of my rantings and Morningstars.

Recent capital raisings on the NZX have been the latest outrage to be foisted on New Zealand stockmarket investors, with protection for large shareholders managed by the NZX and Securities Commission laws at the centre of capital issues but at the same time leaving smaller investors like my good self drowning in a pool of bile filled anger over being shafted once again.

Mark and his directors down in windy Wellington in that flash building on the waterfront and those not far from him at the Securities Commission should take note.

This time, these are your contemporaries saying this about you, not the investors that keep getting the blunt end of your regulatory axe and perhaps you might listen now that it is your buddies saying this?

One can only hope.

Until then the swirling bile will keep me critical.

The Rankings by Morningstar

United States: A
China: B+

Italy: B
Japan: B
Netherlands: B

Taiwan: B
Canada: B-
France: C+
Switzerland: C+
United Kingdom: C+
Australia: C

Singapore: C
Germany: C-
Hong Kong: C-
Spain: D
New Zealand: D-

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Like a Kid in a Candy Store

I still have Auckland International Airport [AIA.NZ] on my mind from a month or so ago when I bought a few thousand more to add to my original 1000.

This has certainly been the case for me today with my new purchase but lets not get carried away. I have bought at a good price for me, my original foray into AIA being at $2.15 in November 2006. With dividends and tax credits included in that initial AIA purchase my cost price comes in at $1.88 per share. Today's purchase then is 18c per share lower than it was more than 2 years ago.

The main reason the stock is on my mind is that the share price on market closing today is below the $1.70 share price I paid back in April and I'm kinda getting excited again - as Warren Buffett famously likes to puts it, like a kind in a candy store - because it looks like the share price might fall even further!

At $1.66 closing and a $1.65 low today on $1.5 million of turnover it looks like the share price could go lower on a negative day on the DOW overnight.

The 52 week low for this stock is $1.56 and I will be paying close attention to the share price if market sentiment if negative this week for an opportunity to buy more.

How many?

Well, I'm looking for another 7000 shares to add to the Share Investor Portfolio to take it up to an even 10000.

I will stop there, because I do have a self imposed limit when it comes to buying anything.

Now I must add that I am average to useless at picking the market but I was happy to buy my initial 1000 shares at $2.15 and more than happy to buy at any price below that.

You can see why I am so exited huh?

Bring on those Mars Bars and M & Ms.

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Bruce Sheppard: Explanation Received

Capital raising, company creditworthiness and business viability during these highly unsure and volatile economic times is very important for investors with NZX listed companies in their portfolios and that is why I am following the stoush between Bruce Sheppard and Mark Weldon at the NZX with much interest.


In a post I made this morning I pointed out that I thought Bruce was being irresponsible in blanket accusations over NZX companies defaulting on bank credit terms and the NZX wanted him to explain himself and name names.

I thought he should too.

He has in a general way this morning with a letter addressed to Mark Weldon, NZX CEO:

Mark,

I have thought about this long and hard, read all my blogs. They explain the background to the issue, and they explain the simple matrixes that I have applied and they have explained how I have analyzed the financial statements with this in mind. Either analysts are blind stupid or inefficient, the simple numbers that you need to check reasonable compliance are these and they don't require a detailed breakout of financial statements:

They are these:

1) How much interest are they paying, a bit hard to find sometimes but not hours of work.

2) Continuing EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation), not hard to find either but you do have to make some assumptions about what is recurring and what is not, this is explained in my blog.

3) Interest bearing debt, and where it is parked, parent subsidiary, its composition between capital notes, and those notes' terms, bank debt and so on. Currency risk is an exposure, and hedging polices come into play. I have not analyzed hedging as disclosure on this is such a tangled web of crap that it is almost impossible to work out how they have hedged their interest and debt exposures and the issues that go with that. Many have foreign currency debts with no natural hedge.

4) Book Equity... that is easy.

5) Net tangible assets is a bit harder but not to hard.

Read the full article

Bruce gives his reasons and goes into some detail as to why he made his sweeping accusation without further elucidation and it seems generally correct, to the point, accurate and honest and we need to know that detail.

Having said that, I still maintain all the research and detail that he says is coming on particular companies should have been released coinciding with his general release.

Us investors need to know but need to know in full before he slanders the good NZX listed companies among the obvious bad.

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Bruce Sheppard: Please Explain

I am a big fan of Bruce Sheppard and agree with his usual well considered and fully explained point of view most of the time. He is more often than not right, expert at financial matters and blunt to the point appearing rude.

This blog yesterday received many hits with Bruce's name as a search and I didn't have the time to explore why.

The reason for the controversy is in Bruce's blog post published on May 8.

It is explained in this piece in Stuff.co.nz that basically he has put his line in the sand and alluded to various NZX listed companies having problems with debt levels:

According to Mr Sheppard, around half of 47 major listed companies he analysed during a three week investigation are at risk of defaulting on their bank terms. However, he said he will not reveal names until companies have had a chance to respond to letters he has written to them.

He selected companies based on published 2007/2008 debt levels and applied assumed bank terms to their financial metrics. Mr Sheppard added that his research raises questions about exchange operator NZX continuous disclosure regime and its role as regulator.

What Bruce has failed to do, and this is unusual for him, is provide corroborating evidence that backs his May 8 accusations.

Frankly if he does have evidence, he needed to come out with it at the same time he made his claim, and not scare the horses so to speak.

It is highly unprofessional to do otherwise because it taints every NZX listed stock with the same debt brush.

He has received a "please explain" from the NZX and unusually again I agree with the NZX and that doesn't happen often:

14 May 2009 - Shareholders' Association chair Bruce Sheppard has contributed meaningfully to capital markets debate over the years. The broader interests of the market, and market confidence, would be best served at this time if he released his analysis at a very detailed level. Investors can then draw their own conclusions as to the health of the companies in which they are investing.

NZX shares Mr Sheppard's goal of healthy, open and transparent capital markets in which investors can have confidence. Providing detailed and transparent information to support his conclusions will further that goal.

Time to put up or shut up Bruce.

Read the answer to the NZX request

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Long VS Short: Michael Hill International

In this seventh installment of the Long vs Short series I am once again going to take look at the chart comparisons for a stock from the Share Investor Portfolio and compare the 10 year return (above chart) to the turmoil of the last year with a 1 year return chart (large chart at bottom of post).

In this series I want to show the merits of investing, using charts, for the long-term vs short term gains or losses. I will use the longest available data to me for the long-term view (10 years )and will make a comparison against the NZX50.

In this segment of Long vs Short I will take a look at Michael Hill International Ltd [MHI.NZ] .

I currently hold 3000 Michael Hill shares after buying them in November 2007 (see small chart below for detail) I added a further 7000 in July 2009.

The company has been a spectacular performer over its 25 year plus history, growing from just one store to more than 200. Its returns to shareholders have been similarly spectacular but have tapered off over the last year due to the world-wide recession.

Symbol	Price	Value	Earned
MHI.NZ	$0.620	$1860	$-807
You own 3000 [MHI.NZ] shares purchased at $.889 [$2667]

In my 18 months of owning this share my return has been a loss of $807 or around 30% (see small chart above)This includes dividends and tax credits.

If I had bought this share just a year ago (see large chart at bottom) my return would have been exactly the same as my 18 month return of a 30% loss.

Now for the real point of this comparison lets look at the return for Michael Hill shareholders who have held the stock for 10 years. (see large chart above)

From a high of a 450% return in 2007 the 10 year return as of writing is still around 240%.

That beats my holding return and the one year return by 270%!

Yet another point made that when it comes to long VS short term investing, long beats short like it has its hands tied behind its back.




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Dead Cats & Vicious Bears 2: The Cat Bounces Higher

Back on March 24 I wrote about the dead cat bounce that had been the "stockmarket recovery" up to that time:

Stocks like Fletcher Building [FBU.NZ] are up more than 20% on recent lows, Mainfreight [MFT.NZ] up by nearly 20%, Sky City Entertainment [SKC.NZ], Goodman Fielder [GFF.NZ], Briscoe Group [BGR.NZ], Hallenstein Glasson [HLG.NZ] and Ryman Healthcare [RYM.NZ] all up over 10%. The NZX is up nearly 200 points, 43 of them today. Markets around the world are up dizzying amounts over the last week and a half, the DOW alone leaping around 1000 points off 13 year lows. It gained nearly 500 points today in the third highest ever percentage gain in the indexes history.

Since then the NZX has added another 250 points plus, the DOW is up a further 1000 points to close at over 8500 last Friday and there have been incredible gains on a wide range of stocks listed on the New Zealand bourse, I mean really incredible gains of more than 50% in some cases, all in the space of a mere two months! (See NZSX Chart Below)

Gee whiz it is like a bull market! (can you feel the sarcasm?)

Retail stocks seem to be among the biggest gainers, as they were the biggest losers when the economy started to fall apart last year

Pumpkin Patch [RYM.NZ] up from 80c to 1.38, Ryman Healthcare [RYM.NZ] up from less than $1.20 to $1.72, Briscoe Group [BGR.NZ] 55c to 94c and Restaurant Brands[RBD.NZ], that serial loser that runs the KFC franchise, up from the high 50s to nearly a buck!

The stocks I mentioned in March have gained considerably, with Ryman Healthcare[RYM.NZ] alone putting on an additional 30% in share price.

What has fundamentally changed though?

A B-I-G fat nothing.

Market sentiment has surely done a 180, but sentiment should be set aside for old Meg Ryan movies, not buying stocks as they go up in price.

Who was buying when they were going South?

Nobody, but market fundamentals were the same then as they are now, terrible!

Makes no sense to me and I think sentiment might come back into the market when investors getting in on rising stocks start blubbing when they realize that sentiment can quite easily change in markets.

A dead cat bouncing even higher means there is further for it to fall and it is going to hurt.


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Are you experienced?

Further to yesterday's rant about how confusing and unfair I thought the Share Purchase Plan (SPP) and top up offer for Sky City Entertainment [SKC.NZ] I can add a bit more meat to the bones after having spoken to my broker at ASB Securities, Bruce MacDonald, in charge of investor relations at Sky City and the hacks at Computershare, the company acting on behalf of Sky City for the small shareholder capital raising.

ASB Securities

This broker had received many inquiries over this top up offer as to qualifications that made investors eligible to apply under that offer, specifically what "experienced investor" and "wealthy" meant in terms of eligibility.

From Securities Amendment Act 2004

• “(2CC) For the purposes of subsection (2CB), a person is an eligible person if the person is 1 or more of the following:

  • “(a) wealthy (as defined in subsection (2CD)):

  • “(b) experienced in investing money (as defined in subsection (2CE)):

  • “(c) experienced in the industry or business to which the security relates (as defined in subsection (2CE)).

• “(2CD) For the purposes of subsection (2CC)(a), a person is wealthy if an independent chartered accountant certifies, no more than 6 months before the offer is made, that the chartered accountant is satisfied on reasonable grounds that the person—

  • “(a) has net assets of at least $2,000,000; or

  • “(b) had an annual gross income of at least $200,000 for each of the last 2 financial years.

“(2CE) For the purposes of subsection (2CC)(b) and (c), a person is experienced in investing money or in the industry or business to which the security relates (as the case may be) if—

“(a) an independent financial service provider is satisfied on reasonable grounds that the person to whom the offer is made, as a result of having experience of that kind, is able to assess—

• “(i) the merits of the offer; and

• “(ii) the value of the security; and

• “(iii) the risks involved in accepting the offer; and

• “(iv) that person's own information needs; and

“(v) the adequacy of the information given by the person making the offer...


I found out when I rang my broker that I don't qualify as an "experienced investor" (even though I thought I was!) as alluded to in the top up offer documents. I would have to have "traded more frequently. and derived an income from those activities and/or have a larger portfolio than my current one.

It seems that these requirements are inserted to protect the "smaller less sophisticated investor", a category which I apparently don't meet either in terms of my Sky City holding and confirmed by both Computershare and Bruce Mac Donald.

Bruce MacDonbald (Sky City Entertainment Investor Relations)

Bruce reiterated much of the above, especially the looking after smaller shareholders part and that the company was restrained by securities law by being unable to offer shareholders like me a large enough parcel of shares as to fully protect from dilution of my shareholding.

This is in reference to the SPP where I can only apply for a maximum of $12500 worth of shares, already short of stopping dilution, and then I may not get the maximum because over subscriptions will mean a scaling down.

So if you own a smaller amount of shares your dilution effect will either be nil or infinitesimal.

Bruce pointed out that the applicable securities law, the Securities Amendment Act 2004 and as far as I can tell the Securities Act 1978 and subsequent amendments(of which there are many)means in effect that the issuer of the shares "must look after the largest number of smaller shareholders possible" and because people like me are somewhere in the middle we sit in some kind of financial black hole (my words) between the small shareholders and larger institutions who participated in the April $230 million placement.

When I pointed out that I was getting shafted Bruce told me SKC simply could have done an institutional placement and forgotten about everyone else but stressed again that "they wanted to be fair to the largest number of shareholders that they could". My counter to that would have been why didn't Sky simply have a rights issue if it had came into my head at the time.

In effect I am getting it from the front and the rear.

Computershare

Computershare pointed out in their usual unfriendly and grudging manner most of the above and added that the way the Sky City offer was structured was the same as Fletcher Building in terms of definitions of eligible investors.

Conclusion

Although paying down sky City debt with he proceeds of the capital raising will lead to higher profits due to less interest paid, the amount I shares I receive under the SPP is unlikely to get me back to pre-capital raising dilution and I have no choice in that at all.

What is a positive though is that I have learnt something over the last few days and every little extra tool in the financial toolbox helps.

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Sky City share offer confusing and unfair for smaller shareholders

I was going to discuss the merits of owning Contact Energy Ltd [CEN.NZ] shares in the light of takeover signs surfacing recently over that company but I will leave it to another day.

I will instead focus on something today that has left me scratching my head.

Many of those that follow my media machinations closely will know that I own a reasonable number of Sky City Entertainment [SKC.NZ] shares.

There has been a recent capital raising to institutions and large shareholders and now we smaller unimportant shareholders are about to have their opportunity to buy an additional stake to avoid dilution of our shareholdings.

Today I received "top-up" offer documents that allow me to buy 1269 shares in the $5 million offer but I have to be either an "experienced" or "wealthy" investor to participate and I must get a "certificate" from my chartered accountant or my "financial service provider" to prove I am either so I can get my new shares.

The only problem is that I don't have either of the above but then I read on that I will probably not be eligible anyway because the top up offer is conditional on the $35 million Share Purchase Plan (SPP) not being fully subscribed, which is highly unlikely to happen given major oversubscriptions in popular capital raisings thus far completed by listed New Zealand companies.

The other wee problem is that I haven't received the SPP documents or booklet that the covering letter says I should read to determine whether I should consider the offer.

The top up offer seems superfluous to requirements because it gets canned if there is an oversub of the SSP but even if there was going to be a top up many wouldn't bother because they have to be "wealthy" (have net assets of $2 million or gross income of more than 200k for each of the last two years) or be an "experienced investor" and be able to prove both using your accountant or financial advisor.

I really cant be bother with the top up because I cannot bloody fully understand it! and it seems to run counter to commonsense because it probably wont occur anyway.

All I am entitled to then is to apply for a maximum of NZ$12500 of shares and it seems given the large interest in the $230 million SKC corporate capital raising carried out in April and an over subscription in the Fletcher Building offer concluded this week, I am unlikely to get anything close to that figure.

I would need to get my hands on around 5000 shares at the offer price of $2.61 per share in order to stop dilution of my position but unlike the corporates and large shareholders my shareholding in Sky City Entertainment of 7 years is going to be seriously diluted.

I will be applying for the maximum under the SSP.

Contact Energy will follow soon.

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Fisher & Paykel Appliances future looking bleak

For those of you who have followed my rantings on this that and the other over the last 2 years or so, you will know I haven't got much time for Fisher and Paykel Appliances [FPA.NZ] the so-called "kiwi business icon" and today is no exception.

Get ready for another rant.

It has been poorly run for many years and was only a success largely because of protectionism in New Zealand and has fought that protectionism and lost the battle.

To me Fisher and Paykel Appliances is looking terminal. It has more than half a billion of debt on its books, with a massive slashing of its sales and profit, and bleak hope for the future.

The company is technically bankrupt.

For management to blame the current credit meltdown is moronic and dishonest at best. There has been clear evidence of a spiraling down of company fortunes over the last 10 years, not the least the massive debt that has been allowed to build up.

It shows the lack of forward planning that management did nothing about that debt until the very last minute and it is only the current dire credit climate and global economic circumstances that have accelerated an inevitable credit crunch.

FPA management have been blessed with less foresight than an Al Gore devotee with a blindfold on that they couldn't see the end coming.

The simple fact that it has taken more than six weeks to find some poor sucker to poor millions of dollars more into this loser shows the less savvy investor that nobody really wants to touch it with a 10 foot dish draw.

Having said that what the company does have to its advantage is one or two products that could be useful to another company looking for an edge in the whiteware market and a brand name with just enough cache left that could be used by a more competitive and well managed whiteware manufacturer.

For that reason alone the best thing for the company is for it to be broken up and sold.

That is sad, but some "business icons" have their best days behind them and Fisher and Paykel Appliances is definitely one of those.

Will the company survive?

Unlikely in its current form.

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