Friday, March 15, 2013

Share Price Alert: Xero Ltd 3




I know it can I think it can, that's the phrase Xero Ltd [XRO.NZX] holders have been using over the last couple of months as the share price has moved from mid 8s to the mid 10s. Still,  it has gone higher than I would have imagined, its trajectory really bizarre given that has yet to turn a profit or even getting close to it.

I suppose that I should really rate it based on the Australian experience - they tend to go overboard on stock prices too, but I really cant pick it. 


In absence of bad news it seems to be up from here.   


I suppose they would have to add 5 0r 6 bucks - those folks from the land of oz - because they have stocks based on nothing that are valued in similar multiples.


You will lose money if you buy this stock ... unless you are an insider. 



Xero Ltd @ Share Investor 


Xero: To those I haven't warned before

Do you still Love Xero?
Share Price Alert: Xero Ltd 2
Share Price Alert:Xero Ltd
Xero Ltd: 2011 HY Loss looking promising
From Xero to Hero?
Stock of the Day: Xero Ltd
Rod Drury ready for the long-haul with Xero
Share Investor Interview: Xero's Rod Drury
Xero Ltd: Download full Company Analysis
Rod Drury on Xero and Growing Business
Xero set for surprise to the Market?
Love Xero? 
Share Investor's 2010 Stock Picks
Stock of the Week: Xero Ltd

Discuss Xero @ Share Investor Forum


Download Xero Company Report
Listen to Rod Drury Interview





Shareinvestor 2013




Thursday, March 14, 2013

Of Wagging, Salivating Tongues

I'm getting nervous.

Why am I getting nervous?

Because the value of my portfolio keeps rising - I'm what you call a slightly negative investor.

The value of the portfolio is just over $ 509,000.00 and has climbed steadily since my incarceration ended at the end of May - from around $ 390,000.00.

It reached the half million mark at the beginning of the week and has put on nearly 20% in 2.5 months.

My finger is poised to sell but I just cant, yet, because nobody has been crazy enough to give me what I want.

I want to ditch the 10000 ASBPB shares I hold and FBU but think I can get more for these if I wait, and for some smaller holdings of others, BGR and HLG have done really well...350 plus %.

Starting to do well is FPH, well duh the dollar wasn't going to stay at that rate forever, it is the reason the stock is performing, not that the company is actually performing, as it has been for years.

Contact energy looks about to break of of its trading range of $5.30 - $5.50 and bout time to since it will be doing some sort of fine business in the countries heatwave/drought and this coming profit result should be a doozy - and it may be taken over by someone.

The WHS dropped into the green this week as I stepped back into the country after holiday - oh ditch the holiday moniker, seriously but it was up and I had one guy who took my advice to buy some last week, who did and he scored about 8 k - beat my 3k after about 5 years.

SKC is going up and up and up - notice a pattern there. Well it keeps reaching for the limit of the tower but it is one that apart from being up about 150% after 10 years and almost now practically free still owes me about 2 bucks per share.

Then there is FRE which has gone up about 90% but still bugs me that it has not gone further  - it will one day.

Then MFT always end with the good ones North of 120% and still looking like a winner.

What else can I say ?


Recommended Amazon Reading

The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A    Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition)
The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) by Benjamin Graham
Buy new: $14.95 / Used from: $6.99
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Shareinvestor 2013

Thursday, February 21, 2013

NZ HERALD: Sky City and Herald answer back


SkyCity got special treatment in its pitch to build the international convention centre - but nothing which will get in the way of a formal deal being struck.

An investigation by the Office of the Auditor-General found the casino's promise to cover the $350 million cost of building the convention centre gave it a clear advantage over any other interested party.

It means the casino and executives can get back to negotiating over the casino's list of changes to the Gambling Act which it wants to trade for building the centre next to its Auckland headquarters. The casino has said it wants 300 more pokies, extra table games and an early extension to its exclusive licence.

While the report revealed SkyCity was treated "very differently" to other bidders, Prime Minister John Key said it "utterly refuted" allegations his Government had struck a "cosy deal" with SkyCity. He blamed officials for "a few procedural matters" but said there was "nothing of substance that would have changed any of the outcomes".

The process problems identified by Deputy Auditor-General Phillippa Smith emerged in the report from the time the Prime Minister - also Tourism Minister - became personally involved. In August 2009, Mr Key told officials to halt a scoping project on a convention centre proposal to "close off the SkyCity angle". He later explained he had a "broad awareness" SkyCity had development plans.

Mr Key's understanding of the casino's desire for development followed a meeting between himself and SkyCity executives although neither Mr Key or the casino "can recall the discussion" on May 14, 2009. There was also a later meeting between the casino and the Prime Minister's chief of staff Wayne Eagleson on June 17, 2009, at which development was discussed.

After the PM halted the scoping project, SkyCity met the PM's senior advisers in September 2009 who said they wanted changes to the Gambling Act which had previously stymied the casino's expansion plans by limiting the number of pokies and other games allowed.

Then Mr Key was briefed on options for the convention centre at a dinner with SkyCity board members and executives on November 4, 2009. He urged them to "think outside the box".
As the casino and Beehive moved closer together, Treasury began raising concerns about "process and probity".

Ms Smith said: "We have concerns about the apparent readiness of officials to support those discussions developing into more substantive negotiations without preparing to give advice on the Government's procedural obligations and options."

Warnings about process were conveyed to Mr Key in a briefing note on November 12, 2009.

In 2010, the Government began calling for an expression of interest from groups wanting the contract. At a meeting with officials, Mr Key said the SkyCity deal was "a good proposal".

However Ms Smith said the process "fell short of good practice in a number of respects". That included the fact ministers and officials continued to have contact with SkyCity to discuss its proposal.

Ms Smith said these meetings were "not appropriate" as it provided SkyCity with information other bidders did not receive. She also said the casino had the advantage in knowing the Government didn't plan on putting any money into the project, allowing it to shape its offer.

In September 2010, the casino put forward a list of changes to the law it wanted. It also said it wanted the Government to buy land from TVNZ to accommodate a large design for the centre.

SkyCity was announced as the preferred bidder in June 2011 with Mr Key promising changes to the Gambling Act would only come after a public submissions.

Greens co-leader Metiria Turei, who sparked the inquiry with a complaint, said the report was "hugely damning" and showed "the relationship with SkyCity was so cosy that the other proposers didn't stand a chance".

Labour leader David Shearer said: "This has had John Key's fingerprints all over it and it was a shonky deal and John Key is donkey-deep in it."

Project's boost to jobs, GDP in question

John Key announced SkyCity's selection as preferred bidder with the promise of 800 jobs on completion and 1000 jobs on construction.

The numbers contrasted with a government feasibility study which put construction jobs at 150 a year for five years - a total of 750. The number of people to be employed in the centre was also lower - between 318 and 479 jobs against 500 fulltime equivalents.

There is also question about the value of the deal to New Zealand, the Prime Minister initially saying it would increase GDP by $49 million. The Auditor-General's report stated a $72 million increase while Economic Development Minister Steven Joyce was last night saying $100 million.

The casino was refusing to comment yesterday as chief executive Nigel Morrison toured Australia with the company's half-year results. In a statement, he said he was looking forward to starting negotiations towards investing the $350 million "provided acceptable returns can be delivered on the total project".

Mr Morrison is known to have become frustrated with delays on the project, the $350 million saved for Auckland's centre recently spent in Australia, supported by both South Australia's Labor Government and Liberal opposition.

Alan Trotter, chief executive of Conventions NZ, said it had cleared the path for the deal to be struck. He said the report also revealed the Prime Minister's ability to strike deals which was to be admired. "There is no such deal as the perfect deal but it's a very pragmatic deal. The key element here is to start construction."
He said conventions of the size the centre would handle needed five to seven years' notice and marketing should begin the moment building started. The centre promised much for New Zealand and the inquiry had sent out ripples of uncertainty. "The Greens have a lot to answer for."

-David Fisher

How events unfolded

May 2009: Key meets SkyCity CEO. Key says changes to the Gambling Act did not come up.
July 2009: Ministry of Tourism and City Council complete convention centre feasibility study. Key briefed on findings and officials recommend developing business case. Officials later told of proposal being developed by SkyCity. Key tells officials to cease work and await SkyCity proposal.
September 2009: SkyCity, Ministry of Economic Development officials and Key's chief of staff discuss Gambling Act changes.
November 2009: Key has dinner with SkyCity board, discussing convention centre and possible changes to the Gambling Act.
March 2010: Cabinet decides to call for "expressions of interest" from other developers. Tender process begins two months later.
May 2011: Process closes. SkyCity, The Edge, Ngati Whatua, Infratil, and ASB Showgrounds respond.
June 2011: SkyCity wins with $350m bid. It requires no state funding but depends on changes to Gambling Act allowing more pokies and other concessions.
June 2012: Deputy Auditor- General Phillippa Smith announces investigation into tendering.
January 2013: Key sees draft report and is "not losing any sleep". The Herald reports SkyCity's plans to increase size of gaming floor.



Sky City Convention Centre @ Share Investor 

VIDEO - Sky City Entertainment Group : Parliamentary Question related to Convention Centre
Sky City to pay for National Convention Centre
Share Investor discusses Convention Centre proposal with CEO Nigel Morrison
Sky City Convention Centre Expansion a Money Loser: Part Two
Sky City Convention Centre Expansion a Money loser
SKC Convention Centre power-point slide illustrations & SKC submission to Auckland City Council

Sky City Entertainment Group @ Share Investor


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Sky City Convention Centre Expansion a Money loser
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Sky City Casino 2007 HY Profit

Discuss SKC @ Share Investor Forum
Download SKC Company Reports

Recommended Amazon Reading

The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A    Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition)
The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) by Benjamin Graham
Buy new: $14.95 / Used from: $6.99
Usually ships in 24 hours



Shareinvestor 2013


Tuesday, February 19, 2013

Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 9

http://chart.bigcharts.com/custom/fairfax-com-nz/chart.asp?rnd=0.31297670214357143&style=2242&symb=CEN&size=1&type=64&time=1yr&freq=1dy&comp=&compidx=&ma=&maval=&lf=268435456&lf2=&lf3=&uf=16384&arrowdates=&arrowlegend=&country=NZ&sid=162856























Contact Energy Ltd [CEN.NZX has come off all-time lows of $4.60 as was trading in April of 2012 to trade in the last 4  months of between $5.00 and $5.40 so has been marking a little time until the concrete news of their half year till December 31 2012.

Their half till Dec 31 2012 was pretty spectacular so it looks like recent weakness is due to murmuring about the impending listings of State power companies.

It was trading at $5.08 yesterday, so any movement north, which I think it will do strongly, will give quite a good start. Shame about those who got out yesterday. 

At $5.08 per share, good things come to those who wait.



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Xero Ltd 


CEN @ Share Investor

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Follow the Monopoly Board

Discuss this stock at Share Investor Forum - Register free
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c Share Investor 2013