Friday, December 2, 2011

Share Price Alert: Mainfreight Ltd 3



Mainfreight Ltd [MFT.NZX] had a great 2012 first half result announced at the beginning of November and since then the share price has rallied from around $9.75 to close at $10.48 yesterday - a rise of just over 7%.

The share price has rallied from $7.25 12 months ago and touched an all-time high of $10.75 in August and at yesterday's closing price gives this stock a rise of well over 40% in a market that has been flatish.

The thing is, as good as the November result is and indications from management that things are looking good for the next quarter, the share price really has gotten away from the realities of the short to medium term prospects for the company.

While the company is doing well right now the European banking crises and the fallout from that cannot be discounted and new investors in Mainfreight, in my humble and not so humble opinion have not factored this in.

International trade is likely to be impacted from the Euro situation, how badly we don't know, but this will clearly have an impact on logistics operators like MFT and their recent acquisition of European logistics company Wim Bosman Group will probably be the hardest hit.

I must add that the company is the best run NZX listed company in New Zealand and has done well to manage through the last 3 years of economic turmoil but the share price is well over valued and will pull back at some stage.

I am contemplating selling my holding for a good 120% plus gain over 4 years and buying back at a latter stage.

Watch for a pull-back to below 6 bucks on an international trade slow-down.


Disc I own MFT shares in the Share Investor Portfolio

Share Price Alert Series

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Contact Energy Ltd
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Telecom New Zealand Ltd
New Zealand Stock Exchange Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd 2
The Warehouse Group Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd 2
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd 2
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Restaurant Brands Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd
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Goodman Fielder Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
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Mainfreight @ Share Investor

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Share Price Alert: Mainfreight Ltd
Investing in the Stockmarket: Timing your Purchase
Stock of the Week: Mainfreight Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd: 2011 1st quarter Profit Analysis
VIDEO: Don Braid with Paul Homes on the Economy
Mainfreight Ltd: Full Year 2010 Profit Analysis
Long Term View: Mainfreight Ltd
Share Investor Interview: Mainfreight's MD Don Braid
Stock of the Week: Mainfreight Ltd
Questions to Mainfreight's MD Don Braid
I'm Buying: Mainfreight Management delivers the goods
Mainfreight Annual Report Packs a Punch
Analysis - Mainfreight Ltd: FY Profit to 31/03/09
Mainfreight VS KiwiRail: The Sequel
Long VS Short: Mainfreight Ltd
Why did you buy that stock? [Mainfreight Ltd]
Mainfreight 2008 Annual report worth reading
KiwiRail will cost Mainfreight
Mainfreight keeps on truckin
A rare breed
Share Investor's 2008 stock picks

Discuss MFT @ Share Investor Forum
Download Mainfreight Company Reports

From Fishpond.co.nz


Every Bastard Says No: The 42 Below Story

Buy Every Bastard Says No - The 42 Below Story, by Geoff Ross & Justine Troy & more @ Fishpond.co.nz

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c Share Investor 2011


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