Sunday, October 26, 2008

POLL: TV One Colmar Brunton Poll, 26 October 2008

According to the latest TV  ONE News Colmar Brunton poll for 26 October 2008, National have slipped two points.

A mini trend that has closed the gap from more than 20 points to 12 has happened over the last few polls.

The previous year-long plus trend was a large National lead:

The poll released on Sunday shows National without an absolute majority for the first time in a year.

The last poll a week ago showed National 14 points ahead of Labour, but this has now narrowed to 12 points.

The National Party has dropped back three points, down to 47%. Labour has also dropped back by one point, now on 35%. Labour's friends, the Green Party have bounced back, up to 8%. Meanwhile, New Zealand First is on 3%, edging closer to the magic 5% threshold.

The Maori Party is sitting on 2.8%, however, their focus is on the electorate seats, so they will not be too concerned with the low party vote. The Act Party is still just above 2%.

Under those numbers, National has 59 seats in parliament and would need the three Act seats to get a majority of 62. UnitedFuture has one seat and would line up with National.

In opposition, Labour has 44 seats, the Greens have 10 and the Progessives one seat.

The Maori Party has four seats, but will not yet say who they will side with, and with these numbers, New Zealand First is out of parliament.

Key is still the preferred choice for Prime Minister on 38% but the race has closed right up. Clark is now breathing down Key's neck on 37%, up by three points. 


Polls were expected to close as the election drew nearer but National is still expected to win the majority of seats and votes on election night.

Colmar Brunton Polls

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