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Well you know after 10 years of writing this blog one thing is common.
You just don't know with any certainty what is going to happen the next year, month, week and day and hour if you ask me.
But let me be specific - for once.
2017 has been a good year for Share Investors Portfolio. It has added around $175,000.00 excluding Divs and for the first time has been valued at way over $1 million dollars - when you include all the dividends returned thus far.
My attempt at trading shares have been spectacular in various shapes and sizes.
My biggest regret also happens to be my biggest success. Fisher and Paykel Healthcare.
It rallied something like 60% this year and my regret is sadly not buying double what I actually bought at the beginning of 2012.
I havent lost one dollar, as opposed to other years in the past.
The market is at 8398 for the year and I have no dought it will test the 10000 mark next year as the tax cuts in America start to flow through in the 2019 calendar year.
It is looking spectacular on our market and especially European markets as they shake the last vestiges of the end of the GFC.
It stands to reason that if inflation and interest rates stay low your going to find markets continuing to take a vast amount of the populations moola.
But you could start to see that change should there be a sharp upwards trend in either oil or interest rates.
Then there is debt - all sorts of debt but especially in this country where we recently passed the one Trillion dollar mark in residential housing values - a great percentage of that one Trillion is debt - and you have to eventually pay it back.
And that just little old NZ, a country with a whisker away from 5 million people!
There are manifold problems brewing in the private sector debt all over the world - watch out.
And...happy trading and holding of course.
www.shareinvestorforum.com
c Share Investor 2017
Listing in a reverse listing today is TIL Logistics Group Ltd [TLL.NZX].
It will list at $1.50.
I will be after some and will put a crazy bid in of $1.51.
I say crazy because you would expect this particular one to be highly sought after.
Highly sought after because of its history and conservative nature.
And because it has thoughts that it could be bought out!
I read this in their prospectus - if that's what you call the thing that has all the details about the sale - remember this is a reverse listing.
My first reverse listing in 20 years!
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c Share Investor 2017
Once again I got my girl Halle on the case and together we came up with these here stock picks for 2018.
Well, like other years this one has been a doozy for stocks.
From 6862 to just a tick over 8150 to this very day, the index has done well but you have to look out for the signs - if unlike me you tend to sell your stocks "high" at first glance of everything going to rack and ruin. AND what I have dear reader is very little idea of that.
I just tend to buy when everyone else is selling and when specific stocks are looking like a bargain.
What I also have to add, once more is the Trump factor this time we are looking at the tax cuts. I do mean TAX CUTS. These have passed the first - and biggest - hurdle and if they are to be passed before Xmas as Trump promises all bets will be off.
Depending on when the tax cuts happen - many say at the beginning of 2019 - investors are likely to see the likes of Apple, Microsoft and a whole host of other US institutions look to bring home their billions courtesy of tax cuts approaching 100%.
If they do come down in tax cuts favour the US and the rest of the world are in for an influx of capital wanting to go somewhere.
I'm guessing some of it will come back to share holders.
Crossing my fingers for US politicians to see sense.
You'll see picks mainly from my portfolio as that is all I know. None from Australia this year because I don't have the time and two listed on the Nasdaq because the two I have picked I have picked before but this time for different reasons.
Listed on the NZX
Mainfreight Ltd
[MFT.NZX]
With profit up slightly this Nov and things a bit patchy in the USA and Asia there is room for improvement for MFT.
The USA/Asia are tough nuts to crack and i'm sure we're going to have to put up with perhaps a further 5 years before things are corrected and infrastructure is large enough for Mainfreight to pursue good growth.
Remember they are mere minnows in these 2 markets. They are actually minnows in every area they operate in except down here in Australasia were they are the biggest in NZ and getting bigger in Australia.
MFT say they are due for a large increase in profit for the second half, that may or may not be the case but already USA and Asia are seeing some good gains in Sept/Oct this year.
This could be got much cheaper if you wait.
Im sure you will get it at the price you are prepared to pay for it.
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Discuss Mainfreight @ Share Investor Forum - Register free
Sky City Entertainment Ltd
[SKC.NZX]
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd [SKC.NZX] is starting took look like a steal right now. The profit has been flat this year and in fact it has been pretty non-existent for the last few years and it has been a way back when levels of returns were exponential - were talking the mid 2000's when it had its heyday.
I know I've said it before last year and the year before that and probably before that but I cant believe it is trading at current levels.
I guess its pre - 2019. That is pre current levels of development starting to come on-stream.
I believe it will make a comeback in the 2019 - 2020 year and in the meantime people are struggling over what to do.
I believe the share price wont get much cheaper than current levels and that ramping up on both sides of the Tasman - don't forget about Adelaide you should see the price start to appreciate.
I have the largest shareholding of this stock in the Portfolio and in my humble opinion this is the buy of 2018 - get it while its cheap.
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Discuss SKC @ Share Investor Forum Register free
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
[FPH:NZX]
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd [FPH.NZX] share price has had a bomb under it for the past couple of months.
It has gone from about $11.50 in Sept and just a couple of weeks ago it was trading at an all-time high of $13.88.
To be sure it is way overvalued and I personally wouldnt get involved in anything until approaching under 5 or 6 dollars and i'm waiting but unsure as to whether it will be approaching those levels anytime soon but i'll cross my fingers.
Fisher & Paykel will be added to the MSCI Index on Nov 30 so one could imagine that index watchers will be filling up soon - or perhaps they already have to a certain extent with very large volumes traded and they are international purchases.
To be sure the profit announcement some days ago had a deleterious effect on the share price - I don't know why, there were no surprises in the result and growth rates approaching 15% - perhaps shareholders were expecting more?
But once again i'm happy to continue holding with many, many patents to come through and increased spending on R and D keeping this shareholder more than happy.
Should you buy more hoping for a lift before inclusion in the MSCI Index?
If you want to take the chance and make a move before they do, you only have many more years of growth ahead but ill think they'll take a tumble making the shares a better bargain than they already are.
Good luck.
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare @ Share Investor
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Discuss Fisher & Paykel Healthcare @ Share Investor Forum - Register free
Ryman Healthcare
[RYM:NZX]
Ryman Healthcare [RYM:NZ] had a good half year 2 weeks or so ago and the share has packed on nearly 10% to be at record levels.
It has been notably vacant in the news for 3-4 years - and quite frankly that's the way management like it.
While this vacancy has occurred the company has doubled in size and their making sites all over New Zealand and Australia their own as they ramp up towards 20000 residents within 5 years and more as time goes on.
I really don't have much more to say about this stock except to watch closely and buy when it goes down and stay away when the opposite occurs.
Ryman Healthcare @ Share Investor
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Hallensteins Glassons
[HLG.NZX]
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd [HLG.NZX] Is a stock that has had a tough couple of years but it is making a comeback.
Its latest protfit result has been good and they had a market update last week that looked really good.
It is getting its ducks in a row and looks to be growing sales and margins in a market that is highly competitive in this part of the world - Australasia.
It really is an important stock in this portfolio as it returns 15% plus and this only increases as the years pass.
Were looking at next year returning in excess of 30'c a share, some say much greater than that.
Whatever the Sept 2018 reporting returns we will see this stock heading upwards of $4 per share as it eases into reporting season when this kicks off for this stock in March 2018.
If I had some dosh I would plunk it down on this all the way to $ 4.50
Hallenstein Glasson @ Share Investor
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Contact Energy Ltd
[CEN.NZX]
Contact Energy Ltd [CEN.NZX] is a stock much like Hallensteins before it, its a good Dividend stock. It also been in a bit of a lull over the last year.
I have been buying it in the $4.40-4.50 range this year and I been tempted but as I say in previous commentary above my lawyer gets the excess div's to look after young Sophia and 2018 looks to be a changing year on that front.
Back to Contact.
It still looks kinda attractive with div's in excess of 6% and increasing dividends next year due to a change in Contacts capital structure - a positive change.
Add this to the company being worth in excess of $3.20 Net Tangible Assets and you get quite an upside.
I would buy this up to $6.40 as it looks set to begin, it already has actually, a hot, dry summer.
Make hay while the sun shines.
CEN @ Share Investor
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Discuss this stock at Share Investor Forum - Register free
Auckland Airport Ltd
[AIA.NZX]
Auckland International Airport [AIA.NZX] Really is an exceptional stock it has returned me over 1400 per cent.
That is in the past.
We need to look towards the future and the future looks incredibly bright.
Years and years of uncluttered growth, unhampered by competition.
That what I like is the fact that the Airport doesn't have competition and won't have any competition while i'm alive.
Their latest profit result back in August was yet another stellar result and funnily enough the share price has retreated.
I bought some more at around $7 bucks - $6.80 odd now that div's are included.
Its gone back to just above 6 bucks from a high it reached earlier in the year of $7.70 odd. Its currently trading around $6.50.
So you don't have to be Einstein to figure out you should be watching this closely hoping for some more weakness in the share price.
Watch for some weakness soon so get your finger ready to buy at anything under $6.50.
I say soon but also watch for it to rise as stories come out in the media about the Airport being busy during holidays because that usually has the opposite effect.
Travel wisely.
AIA @ Share Investor
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Discuss this Stock @ Share Investor Forum - Register free
Tourism Holdings Ltd
[THL.NZX]
Tourism Holdings [THL.NZ] has been on my watch I list for about a year now.
I used to own it in the Portfolio but there a difference this time - now the Chinese are sniffing around.
They have bought up around 11% of the company over the last 2-3 months and my guess is that they will buy more.
Now this particular share isnt going to form part of The Share Investor Portfolio for too long - it is a speculative share.
I bought this particular share @ $5.03 and see some value in this all the way up to $5.53.
I intend to exit this share at around $6 so you should be watching for some weakness.
This particular share is open to move to all sorts of information that comes out in the media - like a lot of shares - but this one is particularly sensitive to monthly tourist numbers, petrol price rises, tourist taxes that sort of thing.
Buy carefully - just a few weeks back this share was going for $4.70-80 range so you could get it that low.
Whatever you feel comfortable with.
Tourism Holdings @ Share Investor
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Discuss THL @ Share Investor Forum - Register free
EBOS Group Ltd
[EBO.NZX]
This particular stock has been on my radar for more than 10 years - its always been too "expensive".
I have never owned it.
And I want to own it because it is well run company with folk at the top truly believing that they are the best at what they do.
Perhaps i should just plunk down some dosh when it gets slightly cheaper because it does from time to time come down in price by $1 here and there.
Perhaps I should wait for some financial crises - yes it will happen again - and that is probably what I will do.
Until then put this one on your watch list and wait - patiently.
EBOS @ Share Investor
Long Term View: EBOS Group Ltd
Discuss this stock at Share Investor Forum - Register free
Nasdaq
Apple INC
Apple is the stock that is most coveted in the World - simply because its worth the most.
That is simply the reason why the stock is a screaming buy.
It is the one reason Donald Trump probably will pass those tax cuts and this will allow mum and pop to get a share of the 10's of billions of dollars of money that Apple has stashed in accounts overseas.
The money is wanted by the shareholder, is demanded by some and is quite frankly needed by some folk who have been long suffering shareholders who have built this stock up to never before seen levels.
Without this "Trump" factor involved before Xmas - this stock wouldn't be here on this blog.
YUM! Brands Inc
[YUM.NASDAQ]
Yum! really is the chicken that keeps on giving, splits then splits again and again.
This is largely a KFC holding company, although it also owns Pizza Hut and Taco Bell and a whole host of other restaurant concepts.
The growth in this company is largely put down to KFC's ambitions in China where they plan to have 10000 stores opened before too long.
This will be their biggest market and there is no doubt they can do it.
The stock price will follow the fortunes of China and I think India as Yum! focuses on this geographical area.
Get this stock on any dips in price or wait for a brief downturn in business to make your move.
Conclusion
The most coveted thing is money - no doubt about it.
But the thing is you can do so much more than you doing now simply by putting some time and effort into taking care of what you earn, how you earn it and ultimately how you spend it.
I put this Share Investor Portfolio together every year In the hope that you, like me can be financially independent.
Good Luck.
Disc I own AIA CEN FPH HLG MFT RYM SKC THL
If you want to have a go at picking yourself put what you have and post it below.
Share Investor's Annual Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2017 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2014 Stock Picks
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c Share Investor 2017
