Share Price Alert: Goodman Fielder Ltd 2

I have to admit Goodman Fielder Ltd [GFF.NZX]is not one of my better investments. It has returned roughly zilch in the 5 years I have held it.

Never mind, this piece isnt about my poor investment choices but about timing your purchase at the right price.

An opportunity to buy has arisen today after a profit warning marking down FY 2011 profit to a range between $140 - 150 million. The share price has retreated today by 13c or just above 8% to close at $1.44 today. It reached an intra day low of $1.40 and this is the 52 week low. A high of 2 bucks back in November 2010 shows how much value the company has lost in just 6 months.

Profit has been impacted by higher commodity prices and unfavourable exchange rates - a common theme for this company for the last few years - and management have seen fit to move prices for their brands higher to recover those increased costs but too late to recover for the full year outlook.

Consumer pressure on price is going to make it hard going for the company to recover these costs as long as the current recession bites and consumers are tending to settle for non brand goods instead of buying some of the pricier brands that GFF offers.

All is not lost though, these Goodman brands are some of the best in the business, are staples on the family table and will continue to be sold and increase in sales when the economy returns to some sort of "normality".

The current share price returns a gross dividend of slightly over 9%, which is clearly a very attractive income given term investment rates of less than half this.

I am picking more softness in this share though and if you have been looking to buy this stock anyway patience is going to get this stock into your portfolio for less than the current share price.


Share Price Alert Series

Telecom New Zealand Ltd 2
Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Charlies Group Ltd
Fletcher Building Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd
Steel & Tube Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd
New Zealand Stock Exchange Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd 2
The Warehouse Group Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd 2
Fletcher Building Ltd
Restaurant Brands Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd
Tourism Holdings
Goodman Fielder Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
NZ Refining Ltd
Freightways Ltd
Xero Ltd


Goodman Fielder @ Share Investor

Long Term View: Goodman Fielder Ltd
Goodman Fielder turning on the DRIP
Goodman Fielder to improve bottom line in 2009
Why did you buy that stock? Goodman Fielder
Goodman Fielder hit by high commodity prices
Goodman Fielder a Hedge against an economic slump
Goodman Fielder pie gets bigger

Discuss GFF @ Share Investor Forum
Download GFF company Reports

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c Share Investor 2011

NZX 50 in Two Year Bull Run

The NZX 50 Gross Index reached a low point of 2418 on 3 March 2009 and since that point has risen 1074 points to close at 3492 on April 21 2011. A rise of 44.5% in just over 2 years.

Almost half that gain has been since mid 2010.

One definition of a bull market (there are others) is that it has moved by 15 - 20% over an extended period and the more than 40% rise in the last 2 more than covers the meaning of a bull market for me.

One way of looking at this is that the market as a whole has come off an incredible low after the October 2008 financial crises and that it is still far from the high of 4333 reached in May 2007 but 2007 was a heady time for stock markets the world over and they were set for a correction from these levels as P/E multiples and other crucial financial data were fast separating from any semblance of real value on the stock market.



I prefer to look at it as more of a realistic valuation of the companies listed on the NZX and anything north of current levels risks going over real valuations. Of course there are some companies that are undervalued still and others that are well overvalued but as an average the NZX is fully priced and at the right level.

Of course the market can still add points from the closing prices last week and it remains uncertain as to whether the current bullish sentiment will remain over Winter without signals driven by results. Look for positive August results to propel the market higher but a good indication of where Winter 2011 was will be profit results out in February 2012.

My stab in the dark 3 years ago on a bullmarket run for 2011 (albeit for different reasons than a 2011 World Cup and post a financial collapse) still looks like a 50/50 call to me.


Recent Share Investor Reading

• Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 22 April 2011
• Give Mr Whimpy the Middle Finger
• Share Price Alert: Telecom New Zealand Ltd 2
• Share Price Alert: Sky Network Television Ltd
• Share Investor Q & A: Tamaki Group Holding's Mike Tamaki
• Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 15 April 2011
• Decent Disclosure

c Share Investor 2011

Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 22 April 2011

The Share Investor Portfolio was slightly up in the third week of April. The portfolio was up by 0.48% or $1274.09 on the April 15 update . For the first 16 weeks of 2011 the portfolio has increased by 10.02 % or $25387.37 . This weeks rise was due, primarily, to a 2c rise in SKC, and a 3c rise in WHS and smaller rises across the board. Most of the remaining stocks were down marginally.

The total of unspent dividends and interest in the bank from the 2010 - 2011 earnings years is $23479.21 at close of reporting season for 2010 and near the end of the 2011 year. There are also approx $50000.00 in tax credits earned from the portfolio since it began in late 2002.

The Share Investor Portfolio has increased in value by 14.81% or $39144.62 since I began tracking it for this blog on October 11 2010.


Share Investor Portfolio as at 17:30:00, Friday 22 April, 2011 (NZT)

Stock	Quantity	Cost price	Total cost	Market price	Market value	Change	%
AIA	2,000	$1.700	$3,400.00	$2.240	$4,480.00	$1,080.00	31.76%
AIA	2,000	$1.510	$3,020.00	$2.240	$4,480.00	$1,460.00	48.34%
AIA	558	$0.000	$0.00	$2.240	$1,249.92	$1,249.92
AIA	754	$2.150	$1,621.10	$2.240	$1,688.96	$67.86	4.19%
ASBPB	3,027	$0.000	$0.00	$0.680	$2,058.36	$2,058.36
ASBPB	6,973	$1.000	$6,973.00	$0.680	$4,741.64	$2,231.36	32.00%
BGR	619	$0.000	$0.00	$1.470	$909.93	$909.93
BGR	2,381	$0.990	$2,357.19	$1.470	$3,500.07	$1,142.88	48.48%
FBU	284	$0.000	$0.00	$9.210	$2,615.64	$2,615.64
FBU	830	$9.750	$8,092.50	$9.210	$7,644.30	$448.20	5.54%
FPH	3,000	$2.350	$7,050.00	$3.090	$9,270.00	$2,220.00	31.49%
FPH	541	$0.000	$0.00	$3.090	$1,671.69	$1,671.69
FPH	1,459	$3.720	$5,427.48	$3.090	$4,508.31	$919.17	16.94%
FRE	2,054	$0.000	$0.00	$3.360	$6,901.44	$6,901.44
FRE	6,577	$3.630	$23,874.51	$3.360	$22,098.72	$1,775.79	7.44%
GFF	586	$0.000	$0.00	$1.610	$943.46	$943.46
GFF	1,414	$2.330	$3,294.62	$1.610	$2,276.54	$1,018.08	30.90%
HLG	299	$0.000	$0.00	$3.980	$1,190.02	$1,190.02
HLG	701	$2.530	$1,773.53	$3.980	$2,789.98	$1,016.45	57.31%
KIP	190	$0.000	$0.00	$1.010	$191.90	$191.90
KIP	810	$1.480	$1,198.80	$1.010	$818.10	$380.70	31.76%
MFT	1,000	$7.960	$7,960.00	$9.290	$9,290.00	$1,330.00	16.71%
MFT	1,838	$8.000	$14,704.00	$9.290	$17,075.02	$2,371.02	16.13%
MFT	657	$0.000	$0.00	$9.290	$6,103.53	$6,103.53
MFT	1,505	$4.200	$6,321.00	$9.290	$13,981.45	$7,660.45	121.19%
MHI	1,646	$0.860	$1,415.56	$0.910	$1,497.86	$82.30	5.81%
MHI	7,000	$0.630	$4,410.00	$0.910	$6,370.00	$1,960.00	44.44%
MHI	494	$1.050	$518.70	$0.910	$449.54	$69.16	13.33%
MHI	860	$0.000	$0.00	$0.910	$782.60	$782.60
PPG	31	$0.000	$0.00	$0.250	$7.75	$7.75
PPG	1,500	$0.440	$660.00	$0.250	$375.00	$285.00	43.18%
PPG	1,004	$0.800	$803.20	$0.250	$251.00	$552.20	68.75%
PPL	1,000	$3.090	$3,090.00	$1.280	$1,280.00	$1,810.00	58.58%
PPL	1,000	$2.870	$2,870.00	$1.280	$1,280.00	$1,590.00	55.40%
PPL	939	$4.200	$3,943.80	$1.280	$1,201.92	$2,741.88	69.52%
PPL	975	$0.000	$0.00	$1.280	$1,248.00	$1,248.00
PPL	1,086	$1.530	$1,661.58	$1.280	$1,390.08	$271.50	16.34%
RYM	459	$0.000	$0.00	$2.480	$1,138.32	$1,138.32
RYM	4,586	$1.970	$9,034.42	$2.480	$11,373.28	$2,338.86	25.89%
SKC	5,750	$7.430	$42,722.50	$3.460	$19,895.00	$22,827.50	53.43%
SKC	1,000	$7.600	$7,600.00	$3.460	$3,460.00	$4,140.00	54.47%
SKC	2,750	$7.700	$21,175.00	$3.460	$9,515.00	$11,660.00	55.06%
SKC	1,431	$8.750	$12,521.25	$3.460	$4,951.26	$7,569.99	60.46%
SKC	272	$4.720	$1,283.84	$3.460	$941.12	$342.72	26.69%
SKC	25,712	$0.000	$0.00	$3.460	$88,963.52	$88,963.52
STU	78	$0.000	$0.00	$2.600	$202.80	$202.80
STU	303	$4.740	$1,436.22	$2.600	$787.80	$648.42	45.15%
WHS	4,500	$3.730	$16,785.00	$3.550	$15,975.00	$810.00	4.83%
WHS	6,979	$6.000	$41,874.00	$3.550	$24,775.45	$17,098.55	40.83%
WHS	15	$3.710	$55.65	$3.550	$53.25	$2.40	4.31%
WHS	3,506	$0.000	$0.00	$3.550	$12,446.30	$12,446.30

26.64%

	Total cost	Market value	Change
	$270,928.45	$343,090.83	$72,162.38

Share Investor Portfolio @ Share Investor

Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 15 April 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 8 April 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 1 April 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 14 March 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 8 March 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 28 February 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 21 February 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 14 February 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 7 February 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 31 January 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 24 January 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 17 January 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 10 January 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 3 January 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 27 December 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 20 December 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 13 December 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 6 December 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 29 November 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 22 November 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 15 November 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 8 November 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 1 November 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 25 October 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 18 October 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 11 October 2010
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Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks: Looking Back
Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks
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c Share Investor 2011

Give Mr Whimpy the Middle Finger

Bernard Whimp has made another low-ball offer for an NZX listed company. This time it is Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd [SKC.NZX] and it is one of the stocks in the Share Investor Portfolio.

I thought he had been given the boot but here is, back again offering $2.30 for shares that finished trading at $3.42 yesterday.

Naturally I will not be accepting his kind offer but I am feeling a bit naughty this morning so I have a proposal to get back at the whimpmeister.

I am going to send my offer forms back to him (slightly whimsically filled out) in the freepost envelope provided because it is going to cost him to open and pay for the postage used.

What I propose is for my readers to download the acceptance forms that I have been sent, including the freepost envelope you can stick to your own envelope and send them whimsically into whimpy boy. You dont need to be a shareholder, just fill in fake stuff or a blank form or just send the envelope!

I may send in a few more copies myself.

It is all about him making more money and taking advantage of morons and the vulnerable and part of me thinks that is OK but I tend to loathe what he is doing so I am bloody doing this.


Bernard Whimp @ Share Investor

Whimp Makes share offers you can refuse
Download Offer Documents

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c Share Investor 2011