Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Labour Voters better off under Key

I wrote a post about our priminister John Key back in July 2008 that his success should be celebrated rather than used against him in a political way as it has been with the Labour Party, the rabid left media and Labour's mates in the unions.


No matter what you think of his politics John Key is a man that the "right" and "left" should aspire to be like. From humble beginnings living in State house with just his Mum bringing him up, to running a country that has had the worst global economic conditions for more than 70 years, natural disasters by the score and an opposition mired in the controversy of leadership challenges, sex scandals and the promise of economy wrecking massive high tax rates for all if it is lucky enough to be voted in this November, John Key has risen above the chaff and made what I think is a pretty good job of managing New Zealand Inc.

While I dont agree with most of his left of centre policies, his management of our economy has been laudable in the light of MMP politics and the Nats want to cosy up the the racism and welfarism of the Maori party that has had impacts in relation to keeping the huge unaffordable welfare net some have become used to. He has in short out leftied the sniveling left's socialist agenda the Labour party have tried to occupy and also managed to continue to capture the National vote to boot. No mean feat.

Mr Key is a likable man, for sure, but the reason for his current popularity goes deeper than that. Across the political sphere people can see that he has made a success of himself and even the rabid left media in this country from time to time see that admirable quality in him as a fighter, a quality that all of us as New Zealanders can relate and aspire to. To make a success of oneself no matter where one comes from and no matter what sort of family background that an individual is born into. This is a quality that supersedes politics and with Key as a shining example of this as our leader, the inspirational qualities of what he has achieved are clearly positive for us as a people and a good way forward for the future.

On this alone even those who traditionally vote for Labour and the left in general would be better off voting for Key. Policies that incentivise working rather than welfare and lower taxes for those who want to earn more are clear positives for the economy and our country and a good long-term future. Keys experience in knowing how an economy runs is in stark contrast to the Labour parties Robin Hood snatch and grab and a propensity to misunderstand even basic economics if it means there is a vote in it.

Labour have lost their way and its policies of envy and greed in the form of taxing those who work to give to others who don't and the growth of a much bigger Government is the last vestige of Socialism which the country needs and I believe wants to leave behind.

Let us celebrate the success of people like John Key, rather than being petty and envious. Remember if he can get where he has from his background of deprivation, anyone can.

That is what we should be voting for come November 26.

Think Bigger

NEW
- From Fishpond.co.nz | Think Bigger, By Michael Hill


Darren Rickard 2011




Tuesday, July 26, 2011

Overdrawn in the U.S.A



Most of us may be vaguely aware of the fact the the United States is in danger of defaulting on their interest payments on over US 14 trillion of debt (rolls off the tongue like a cheap Chinese* abacus) come a deadline imposed on August 2 and that democrats, having failed to stick to a budget over the last 3 years, have thus far failed to agree with republicans on a desperately needed budget slashing and or the raising of debt levels a further US $2.5 trillion so the country can pay the interest on that debt and function for just another 12 months before this all happens again just before Obama puts his neck on the line again for a further 4 years.

New Zealanders would be mostly unaware of the detail though because it hasn't been covered with much thought or serious commentary in the local news media because there have been more pressing issues of the day like brain-dead stranded penguins and rabid lefty journos going after non-existent Israeli spies.

It should have more than a passing interest for us though because the possibility and uncertainty of a default (which is unlikely to happen he says crossing the keys on his cheap Chinese* keyboard and touching his head for luck) will impact on interest rates for kiwi consumers and affect global markets over the remaining 9 days leading up to the deadline.

I must digress back to my primary subject for this post though because as important as the US debt crises is there is perhaps a more pressing and serious timebomb waiting to go off in the form of The Bank of America and the precarious and uncertain state of its books and the reflection of that in its rapidly dropping share price:

"At US$9.85 a share, down 26 per cent this year, Bank of America finished on Thursday with a market capitalisation of US$99.8 billion. That's an astonishingly low 49 per cent of the company's US$205.6 billion book value on June 30.
As far as the market is concerned, more than half of that book value is bogus because of overstated assets or understated liabilities or a combination of the two.
That perception is a dangerous situation for the world at large, not just the company's shareholders.
The risk is that with the stock price this low, a further decline could feed on itself and spread contagion to other companies, regardless of the bank's statement this week that it is "creating a fortress balance sheet". NZ Herald, 25 July 2011
The author of the NZ Herald article goes on to point out that the bank is the country's largest by asset value, it recently made its biggest quarterly loss ever and management have made public statements on the banks health have been caught out understating liabilities for bad mortgages.

Does all this sound eerily familiar and a little too much like early 2008 when several financial and banking institutions began to show real signs of the financial skullduggery and mismanagement that they had been up to over the previous 10 years or more that led to the current global financial recession?

Don't answer that dear reader, put your head in the sand like any good democrat would and lets go on!

Countrywide Financial Corp was bought by BOA in early 2008 to help it out of its collapse under the weight of the subprime mortgages on its books and that same company with its $1.5 trillion in loans of various states of disrepair look likely to have an impact on BOA sometime soon with dire consequences for the rest of us. This is without going into the quality of the mortgages in its own division of course.

Lets go on!

After buying the impaired assets of Merril Lynch in January 2009 BOA found itself even further down the toilet and shortly after was the recipient of a second capital injection from the American taxpayer that has totaled US$45 billion thus far.

It is looking likely that BOA will need to raise capital somehow to continue to operate in a solvent and fiscally prudent manner due to its breach of new international banking rules and my pick is that the private investor is not going to want to touch that sort of stinker with a cheap 400 foot barge pole made in China*, so Obama may well be tapped on the shoulder again to let the US taxpayer bail it out of its woes, again.

The twin towers of the insolvency of the US Governments books and the possible implosion of the Bank of America will no doubt be fended off by increasing debt levels and more bailouts but just how long can this go on?

It has been 3 years so far and the world lurches from one Greek tragedy, to Irish wakes, Italian spaghetti westerns and Spanish civilian wars to who knows what next and we continue to put off the inevitable of facing up to our debt levels, making a clean break and letting the weak and greedy collapse into the black hole of debt they have dug for themselves.

If it takes everyone else down with them then so be it, I just cant stand this Chinese* water torture.

*With thanks to China and the Chinese for saving so hard after selling us your crap and letting us borrow even more of what was once our money so we can continue buying your crap. No offense.

NB - Please note I had run out of black ink by the end of this.




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c Share Investor 2011






Monday, July 25, 2011

Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 22 July 2011

The Share Investor Portfolio almost reversed the losses from last weeks big drop in the last week of July. The portfolio was up by 2.16% or $5802.89 on the July 15 update . For the first 28 weeks of 2011 the portfolio has increased by 13.95 % or $35633.54 . A 7c rise in SKC, 13c gain for the WHS and 14c increase for MFT contributed the most to the upside but a broad rise in most of the other stocks helped the portfolio increase the gains from the leaders.

The total of unspent dividends and interest in the bank as at 26 May from the 2010 - 2011 earnings years is $25382.95 at close of reporting season for 2010 and at the end of the 2011 1st half reporting year. There are also approx $55000.00 in tax credits earned from the portfolio since it began in late 2002.

The Share Investor Portfolio has increased in value by 18.74% or $49390.68 since I began tracking it for this blog on October 11 2010

Track the Share Investor Portfolio 2.


Share Investor Portfolio as at 17:30:00, Friday 22 July, 2011 (NZT)

Stock
Quantity
Cost price
Total cost
Market price
Market value
Change
%
AIA

2,000 $1.700 $3,400.00 $2.315 $4,630.00 $1,230.00 36.18%
AIA

2,000 $1.510 $3,020.00 $2.315 $4,630.00 $1,610.00 53.31%
AIA

558 $0.000 $0.00 $2.315 $1,291.77 $1,291.77
AIA

754 $2.150 $1,621.10 $2.315 $1,745.51 $124.41 7.67%
ASBPB

3,109 $0.000 $0.00 $0.770 $2,393.93 $2,393.93
ASBPB

6,891 $1.000 $6,891.00 $0.770 $5,306.07 $1,584.93 23.00%
BGR

619 $0.000 $0.00 $1.420 $878.98 $878.98
BGR

2,381 $0.990 $2,357.19 $1.420 $3,381.02 $1,023.83 43.43%
FBU

284 $0.000 $0.00 $8.260 $2,345.84 $2,345.84
FBU

830 $9.750 $8,092.50 $8.260 $6,855.80 $1,236.70 15.28%
FPH

3,000 $2.350 $7,050.00 $2.540 $7,620.00 $570.00 8.09%
FPH

1,365 $3.720 $5,077.80 $2.540 $3,467.10 $1,610.70 31.72%
FPH

635 $0.000 $0.00 $2.540 $1,612.90 $1,612.90
FRE

2,054 $0.000 $0.00 $3.400 $6,983.60 $6,983.60
FRE

6,577 $3.630 $23,874.51 $3.400 $22,361.80 $1,512.71 6.34%
GFF

586 $0.000 $0.00 $1.200 $703.20 $703.20
GFF

1,414 $2.330 $3,294.62 $1.200 $1,696.80 $1,597.82 48.50%
HLG

299 $0.000 $0.00 $3.510 $1,049.49 $1,049.49
HLG

701 $2.530 $1,773.53 $3.510 $2,460.51 $686.98 38.74%
KIP

763 $1.480 $1,129.24 $0.995 $759.19 $370.06 32.77%
KIP

237 $0.000 $0.00 $0.995 $235.82 $235.82
MFT

1,000 $7.960 $7,960.00 $10.250 $10,250.00 $2,290.00 28.77%
MFT

1,838 $8.000 $14,704.00 $10.250 $18,839.50 $4,135.50 28.13%
MFT

1,375 $4.200 $5,775.00 $10.250 $14,093.75 $8,318.75 144.05%
MFT

787 $0.000 $0.00 $10.250 $8,066.75 $8,066.75
MHI

1,646 $0.860 $1,415.56 $0.930 $1,530.78 $115.22 8.14%
MHI

7,000 $0.630 $4,410.00 $0.930 $6,510.00 $2,100.00 47.62%
MHI

494 $1.050 $518.70 $0.930 $459.42 $59.28 11.43%
MHI

860 $0.000 $0.00 $0.930 $799.80 $799.80
PPG

31 $0.000 $0.00 $0.250 $7.75 $7.75
PPG

1,500 $0.440 $660.00 $0.250 $375.00 $285.00 43.18%
PPG

1,004 $0.800 $803.20 $0.250 $251.00 $552.20 68.75%
PPL

1,000 $3.090 $3,090.00 $1.070 $1,070.00 $2,020.00 65.37%
PPL

1,000 $2.870 $2,870.00 $1.070 $1,070.00 $1,800.00 62.72%
PPL

939 $4.200 $3,943.80 $1.070 $1,004.73 $2,939.07 74.52%
PPL

975 $0.000 $0.00 $1.070 $1,043.25 $1,043.25
PPL

1,086 $1.530 $1,661.58 $1.070 $1,162.02 $499.56 30.07%
RYM

555 $0.000 $0.00 $2.700 $1,498.50 $1,498.50
RYM

4,445 $1.970 $8,756.65 $2.700 $12,001.50 $3,244.85 37.06%
SKC

5,750 $7.430 $42,722.50 $3.650 $20,987.50 $21,735.00 50.87%
SKC

1,000 $7.600 $7,600.00 $3.650 $3,650.00 $3,950.00 51.97%
SKC

2,750 $7.700 $21,175.00 $3.650 $10,037.50 $11,137.50 52.60%
SKC

1,431 $8.750 $12,521.25 $3.650 $5,223.15 $7,298.10 58.29%
SKC

272 $4.720 $1,283.84 $3.650 $992.80 $291.04 22.67%
SKC

25,712 $0.000 $0.00 $3.650 $93,848.80 $93,848.80
STU

78 $0.000 $0.00 $2.570 $200.46 $200.46
STU

303 $4.740 $1,436.22 $2.570 $778.71 $657.51 45.78%
WHS

4,500 $3.730 $16,785.00 $3.590 $16,155.00 $630.00 3.75%
WHS

6,979 $6.000 $41,874.00 $3.590 $25,054.61 $16,819.39 40.17%
WHS

15 $3.710 $55.65 $3.590 $53.85 $1.80 3.23%
WHS

3,506 $0.000 $0.00 $3.590 $12,586.54 $12,586.54

30.57%


Total cost Market value Change

$269,603.44 $352,011.99 $82,408.55


Share Investor Portfolio @ Share Investor

Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 15 July 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 8 July 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 1 July 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 25 June 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 17 June 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 10 June 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 3 June 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 27 May 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 20 May 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 13 May 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 6 May 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 29 April 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 22 April 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 15 April 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 8 April 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 1 April 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 14 March 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 8 March 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 28 February 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 21 February 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 14 February 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 7 February 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 31 January 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 24 January 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 17 January 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 10 January 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 3 January 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 27 December 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 20 December 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 13 December 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 6 December 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 29 November 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 22 November 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 15 November 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 8 November 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 1 November 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 25 October 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 18 October 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 11 October 2010
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Share Investor Portfolio 2 @ Share Investor

Share Investor Portfolio 2: Value @ 15 July 2011
Share Investor Portfolio 2: Value @ 14 July 2011
Share Investor Portfolio 2: Value @ 13 July 2011
Share Investor Portfolio 2: Value @ 12 July 2011
Share Investor Portfolio 2: Value @ 11 July 2011
Share Investor Portfolio 2: Value @ 8 July 2011
Share Investor Portfolio 2: Value @ 7 July 2011


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Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks: Looking Back
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Related Amazon Reading


The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition)
The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) by Benjamin Graham
Buy new: $14.95 / Used from: $9.73
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Security Analysis: The Classic 1934 Edition
Security Analysis: The Classic 1934 Edition by GRAHAM
Buy new: $37.80 / Used from: $29.48
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Buy these two Books @ Fishpond.co.nz

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c Share Investor 2011