Share Investor

Sunday, May 8, 2011

Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 6 May 2011

The Share Investor Portfolio was up in the first week of May. The portfolio was up by 1.73% or $4705.63 on the April 29 update . For the first 17 weeks of 2011 the portfolio has increased by 13.77 % or $35572.61 . This weeks rise was due, primarily, to a 12c rise in SKC, a 7c gain in WHS, small rises in a few stocks and a larger number of smaller falls across the board.

The total of unspent dividends and interest in the bank from the 2010 - 2011 earnings years is $23479.21 at close of reporting season for 2010 and near the end of the 2011 year. There are also approx $50000.00 in tax credits earned from the portfolio since it began in late 2002.

The Share Investor Portfolio has increased in value by 18.56% or $49329.86 since I began tracking it for this blog on October 11 2010.

Share Investor Portfolio as at 17:30:00, Friday 06 May, 2011 (NZT)

Stock

Quantity

Cost price

Total cost

Market price

Market value

Change

AIA

2,000

$1.700

$3,400.00

$2.240

$4,480.00

$1,080.00

31.76%

AIA

2,000

$1.510

$3,020.00

$2.240

$4,480.00

$1,460.00

48.34%

AIA

558

$0.000

$0.00

$2.240

$1,249.92

AIA

754

$2.150

$1,621.10

$2.240

$1,688.96

$67.86

4.19%

ASBPB

3,027

$0.000

$0.00

$0.660

$1,997.82

ASBPB

6,973

$1.000

$6,973.00

$0.660

$4,602.18

$2,370.82

34.00%

BGR

619

$0.000

$0.00

$1.510

$934.69

BGR

2,381

$0.990

$2,357.19

$1.510

$3,595.31

$1,238.12

52.53%

FBU

284

$0.000

$0.00

$8.960

$2,544.64

FBU

830

$9.750

$8,092.50

$8.960

$7,436.80

$655.70

8.10%

FPH

3,000

$2.350

$7,050.00

$3.110

$9,330.00

$2,280.00

32.34%

FPH

541

$0.000

$0.00

$3.110

$1,682.51

FPH

1,459

$3.720

$5,427.48

$3.110

$4,537.49

$889.99

16.40%

FRE

2,054

$0.000

$0.00

$3.440

$7,065.76

FRE

6,577

$3.630

$23,874.51

$3.440

$22,624.88

$1,249.63

5.23%

GFF

586

$0.000

$0.00

$1.410

$826.26

GFF

1,414

$2.330

$3,294.62

$1.410

$1,993.74

$1,300.88

39.48%

HLG

299

$0.000

$0.00

$4.030

$1,204.97

HLG

701

$2.530

$1,773.53

$4.030

$2,825.03

$1,051.50

59.29%

KIP

190

$0.000

$0.00

$1.035

$196.65

KIP

810

$1.480

$1,198.80

$1.035

$838.35

$360.45

30.07%

MFT

1,000

$7.960

$7,960.00

$9.160

$9,160.00

$1,200.00

15.08%

MFT

1,838

$8.000

$14,704.00

$9.160

$16,836.08

$2,132.08

14.50%

MFT

657

$0.000

$0.00

$9.160

$6,018.12

MFT

1,505

$4.200

$6,321.00

$9.160

$13,785.80

$7,464.80

118.10%

MHI

1,646

$0.860

$1,415.56

$0.920

$1,514.32

$98.76

6.98%

MHI

7,000

$0.630

$4,410.00

$0.920

$6,440.00

$2,030.00

46.03%

MHI

494

$1.050

$518.70

$0.920

$454.48

$64.22

12.38%

MHI

860

$0.000

$0.00

$0.920

$791.20

PPG

$0.000

$0.00

$0.250

$7.75

PPG

1,500

$0.440

$660.00

$0.250

$375.00

$285.00

43.18%

PPG

1,004

$0.800

$803.20

$0.250

$251.00

$552.20

68.75%

PPL

1,000

$3.090

$3,090.00

$1.200

$1,200.00

$1,890.00

61.17%

PPL

1,000

$2.870

$2,870.00

$1.200

$1,200.00

$1,670.00

58.19%

PPL

939

$4.200

$3,943.80

$1.200

$1,126.80

$2,817.00

71.43%

PPL

975

$0.000

$0.00

$1.200

$1,170.00

PPL

1,086

$1.530

$1,661.58

$1.200

$1,303.20

$358.38

21.57%

RYM

459

$0.000

$0.00

$2.550

$1,170.45

RYM

4,586

$1.970

$9,034.42

$2.550

$11,694.30

$2,659.88

29.44%

SKC

5,750

$7.430

$42,722.50

$3.680

$21,160.00

$21,562.50

50.47%

SKC

1,000

$7.600

$7,600.00

$3.680

$3,680.00

$3,920.00

51.58%

SKC

2,750

$7.700

$21,175.00

$3.680

$10,120.00

$11,055.00

52.21%

SKC

1,431

$8.750

$12,521.25

$3.680

$5,266.08

$7,255.17

57.94%

SKC

272

$4.720

$1,283.84

$3.680

$1,000.96

$282.88

22.03%

SKC

25,712

$0.000

$0.00

$3.680

$94,620.16

STU

$0.000

$0.00

$2.610

$203.58

STU

303

$4.740

$1,436.22

$2.610

$790.83

$645.39

44.94%

WHS

4,500

$3.730

$16,785.00

$3.720

$16,740.00

$45.00

0.27%

WHS

6,979

$6.000

$41,874.00

$3.720

$25,961.88

$15,912.12

38.00%

WHS

$3.710

$55.65

$3.720

$55.80

$0.15

0.27%

WHS

3,506

$0.000

$0.00

$3.720

$13,042.32

30.39%

	Total cost	Market value	Change
	$270,928.45	$353,276.07	$82,347.62

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c Share Investor 2011

Saturday, May 7, 2011

Craigs Investment Partners Picks Top Stocks

In a NZ Herald column this morning Mark Lister from Craigs Investment Partners discusses the virtues or otherwise of new investors buying "penny stocks" and the quality of the businesses that might be behind the stock price and as thinly on the ground as they are on the NZX, that you must look to the fundamentals of the business.

Mark indicates some qualities he would like to see in a business before investing:

1: A business without too much competition.
2: Good balance sheet with room for debt.
3: A track record of good and increasing earnings.
4: Generally defensive in nature.
5: Good management.

I agree with these 5 points but must add that I see good management as the first tick before investing, well above the other point Mark made.

I must also note buying cheap face value stocks is not always an indication that the company is a dog - it maybe just suffering a temporary dip in performance for whatever reason - but it is more often than not a good indicator.

With this in mind Mark has picked 11 stocks that fit his criteria and that he has invested his clients in and I will comment below on these picks:

The following is a list of stocks by the returns they have delivered over the past decade, using figures that we calculate ourselves for the 10 years ended March 31, 2011. These figures take into account dividends and capital growth in share prices and are adjusted for share splits, rights issues and so on. This list is not exhaustive and is obviously limited by space.

This list is not any sort of quality ranking, but it does show how well some of our companies have done over the past decade.

Freight-forwarding company Mainfreight Ltd [MFT.NZX] tops the list. It has returned 29 per cent a year over the decade, or a total return of 1216 per cent. In 2003 Mainfreight published a book on its first 25 years. It was a great read and it talked a lot about the 100-year vision for the company. In the years since, it has made rapid progress, cementing its local market position and expanding its operations around the world. Company leadership is top-flight and it has a strong focus on the long term.

TrustPower Ltd [TPW.NZX] comes next with a 10-year gain of 22.6 per cent a year. The Tauranga-based generator and retailer of electricity has carved out a defensive niche in it sector. Its strong renewables focus has been a point of difference, as has its ability to manage its retail operation better than any rival while maintaining its premium customer service offering.

Ryman Healthcare Ltd [RYM.NZX] is not far behind with 22.2 per cent a year. One of our market's biggest success stories, Ryman is a leading company in the aged care sector. It recently announced it will be expanding into Australia and locally will be increasing its build rate from 450 to 550 units and beds a year to meet rising demand for its services. Ryman has also grown its dividend handsomely. Investors astute enough to buy Ryman shares 10 years ago are enjoying an income from dividends of over 18 per cent a year on their original cost.

There aren't many big development or infrastructure projects in this country that happen without Fletcher Building Ltd [FBU.NZX]. This strong market share in construction and building materials has helped it deliver a return to shareholders of 20.7 per cent since 2001. The company continues to expand overseas.

A company that many people perhaps will not have heard of is Ebos Ltd [EBO.NZX], a healthcare distributor. It has returned 17.1 per cent a year and is another stock that has delivered strong dividend growth. It has a strong market position here and is expanding in Australia.

Port of Tauranga Ltd [POT.NZX] has returned 15.5 per cent a year and continues to go from strength to strength. Strong demand for logs from Asia is boosting export volumes and revenues, but this company is much more than a short-term story. It has built a strategically important position, has valuable land assets, good transport links and room to grow.

Auckland International Airport Ltd [AIA.NZX] comes next with a return of 12.6 per cent a year. The airport is New Zealand's key contact point with the outside world. Management continues its focus on developing the airport's property precinct and improving the overall service offering and efficiency.

Carpet maker Cavalier Corp Ltd [CAV.NZX] comes next with a return of 11.8 per cent a year. Cavalier clearly operates in a tough sector and faces strong competition, and has to cope with demand for its carpets moving up and down with the economic cycle. Despite all of this the company has done well and delivered excellent growth and dividends for shareholders.

Express package company Freightways Ltd [FRE.NZX] has delivered a solid 10.6 per cent a year over the decade. It is a well-managed company with strong brands such as New Zealand Couriers and Post Haste Couriers. It continues to expand its market position and has expanded into Australia in the information management sector.

Property for Industry Ltd [PFI.NZX] is one of the best-performed listed property vehicles with a return of 9.4 per cent a year. It has delivered consistent increases in its dividend over the years and has always impressed with its astute management of its portfolio of industrial properties.

No list of high-quality stocks in this country could exclude Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd [FPH.NZX]. It produces world-class products such as heated humidification products including respiratory humidifiers, breathing circuits, infant resuscitators and infant warmers. It is a leader in products for the treatment of obstructive sleep apnoea. It has returned 7.9 per cent a year over the decade. Given 98 per cent of sales are overseas, the strong NZ dollar has impacted on results.

Mark Lister, NZ Herald, May 7 2011.

Now I haven't checked Mark's figures for accuracy but if you check below this post in the Long Term View series of posts you will find there are other stocks that have gleaned far higher returns than his picks, especially when you hold for greater than the 10 years he has covered.

I agree wholeheartedly with Marks first pick, it is the best managed company on the NZX, but he hasn't been critical of his other picks or pointed out that all of these companies have been impacted by the financial ups and downs of the last 2-3 years. Fletcher Building for example had a disastrous history through the 1990's and up to the point where Mark makes his calculations, the company they were before they became FBU almost went into receivership.

An essential point missing from Mark's stock picking criteria is timing of the investment. You must buy when the stock you are after is at a level where its fundamentals meet what current returns you are after and therefore what future returns you might get. There is no point buying what some might seem as good quality companies unless you include this as a feature in your picking.

Finally, it is great to see people like Mark putting their money where their mouth is and buying and disclosing what they are investing in on behalf of clients. It would be nice to see him disclose what he has in his own personal portfolio though.

Share Investor's Annual Stock Picks

Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks: Looking Back
Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2010 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2008 Stock Picks

Brokers 2011 Stock Picks

Long Term View Series

ASB Capital Preference Shares (A)
ASB Capital Preference Shares (B)
Auckland International Airport
Air New Zealand
AMP Ltd
ANZ Banking Group Ltd
Briscoe Group Ltd
Cavalier Corporation Ltd
Comvita Ltd
Contact Energy Ltd
Delegats Group Ltd
EBOS Group Ltd
Fletcher Building Ltd
Fisher & Paykel Appliances
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Freightways Ltd
Goodman Fielder Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
Hellaby Holdings Ltd
Infratil Ltd
Kirkcaldie & Stains Ltd
Kiwi Income Property Trust Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd
Michael Hill International Ltd
Metlifecare Ltd
Methven Ltd
Mowbray Collectables Ltd
NZ Oil & Gas Ltd
New Zealand Refining Ltd
New Zealand Stock Exchange Ltd
Nuplex Industries Ltd
PGG Wrightson Ltd
Port Of Tauranga Ltd
Postie Plus Group Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Restaurant Brands Ltd
Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Sanford Ltd
Sealegs Corp Ltd
Scott Technology Ltd
Skellerup Ltd
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
Sky Network Television Ltd
Smiths City Group Ltd
Steel & Tube Ltd
Telecom NZ Ltd
Telstra Corp Ltd
Tourism Holdings Ltd
Trustpower Ltd
Turners Auctions Ltd
Turners & Growers Ltd
The Warehouse Group Ltd
Vector Ltd
Wakefield Health Ltd
Westpac Banking Group Ltd

c Share Investor 2011

Friday, May 6, 2011

Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd: Presentation to Macquarie Australia Conference

Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd [SKC.NZX] shareholders and prospective investors might want to check out the presentation done by management to the Macquarie Australia Conference on 6 May 2011.

There has been alot of broker interest and spruiking of the company over the last week with a new broker report out this week and a number of stories about the Christchurch Casino and the possible full sale of that to SKC.

Thursday, May 5, 2011

The Warehouse Group Ltd: Takeover Speculation Resurfaces

Update 27 June 2011, Woolworths keen on expanding WHS stake

I am going to speculate on some speculation in Businessday this morning that the appointment of Ted van Arkel as an independent director of The Warehouse Group Ltd [WHS.NZX] means the sale of the company is back on the table.

Van Arkel has a long history and ties to retail in both New Zealand and Australia and has a hard nosed reputation both as a former managing director of Progressive Enterprises, owned by Woolworths Ltd [WOW.ASX] and as an independent director of multiple boards and chairman of Restaurant Brands Ltd [RBD.NZX] and Charlie's Group Ltd [CHA.NZX]. He has also known Stephan Tindal and chairman Graham Evans for a long time, working with Tindal, through George Court, and Evans through Woolworths.

Van Arkel's links to Australasian retail maybe indeed be just a sideshow in terms of where the Warehouse is heading and he maybe there for his vast retail experience but I don't think fresh blood on the board like this is an accidental appointment apart from his resume.

Van Arkel's links to Woolworths are strong and as that company is a 10% shareholder of the company his connections here are significant. With Charlies, as chairman, he has recently presided over two big deals to get Charlies products onto Woolworth's shelves in Australia and in the stores of competitor Coles, owned by retail giant, Wesfarmers Ltd [WES.ASX]

With Restaurant Brands, under his time there, the company has transformed itself from a dog into a flourishing peacock in terms of performance and customer service. Van Arkel seems to be the goto guy if you want a director to lead to the way to better performance in retail.

He appears to be behind the brand change image of Postie Plus Group [PPG.NZX] which sadly, thus far, has failed to gain much traction or indeed profit.

His reputation as a retail "Mr Fix It" appears not to be a coincidence as The Warehouse is currently stagnating in terms of sales and profit and the introduction of such a director with such strong ties to retail in this part of the world is a significant move if Van Arkel's past has anything to go by.

While Van Arkel's appointment is not a clear sign that The Warehouse is back on the block, what is crystal clear is that his place with the company as an independent director means some significant change for the company in the months and years ahead.

His inclusion on the board does make a sale more likely because of his past track record but it is not a given.

Disclosure: I own WHS shares in the Share Investor Portfolio

The Warehouse Group @ Share Investor Woolworths puts The Warehouse back on the shopping block
Share Price Alert: The Warehouse Group Ltd
The Warehouse Group: Tips for the new CEO
The Warehouse Group: Should Ian Morrice Go?
Has the Warehouse lost its Mojo?
Stock of the Day: The Warehouse Group Ltd
The Warehouse Group Ltd: Takeover Prospect looking good on paper
VIDEO: Extended Ian Morrice Interview
Share Investor Q & A: Warehouse Group CEO Ian Morrice

Warehouse Group Ltd: 2010 Full Year Profit Analysis
Share Investor Q & A: Questions to The Warehouse' Ian Morrice
Long Term View: The Warehouse Group Ltd
Share Investor Short: Warehouse Group yield worth a look
The Warehouse Group: 2010 Interim Profit Review
The Warehouse: Big Brands, Big Opportunities
Warehouse strike opportunity to buy
Long Term Play: The Warehouse Group
Share Investor Short: Warehouse Group yield worth a second look
Woolworths supermarket consolidation an indicator of a move on the Warehouse?
Stock of the Week: The Warehouse Group
Warehouse 2009 interim profit a key economic indicator
When will The Warehouse bidders make their move?
Long vs Short: The Warehouse Group
Warehouse bidders ready to lay money down
The Warehouse set to cut lose "extra" impediment
The Warehouse sale could hinge on "Extra" decision
The case for The Warehouse without a buyer
Foodstuffs take their foot off the gas
Woolworths seek leave to appeal to Supreme Court
Warehouse appeal decision imminent
Warehouse decision a loser for all
Warehouse Court of appeal decision in Commerce Commission's favour
MARKETWATCH: The Warehouse
The Warehouse takeover saga continues
Why did you buy that stock? [The Warehouse]
History of Warehouse takeover players suggest a long winding road
Court of Appeal delays Warehouse bid
The Warehouse set for turbulent 2008
The Warehouse Court of Appeal case lay in "Extras" hands
WHS Court of Appeal case could be dismissed next week
Commerce Commission impacts on the Warehouse bottom line
The Warehouse in play
Outcomes of Commerce Commission decision
The fight for control begins soon

Discuss WHS @ Share Investor Forum - Register free
Download WHS company reports

c Share Investor 2011

Share Investor

Sunday, May 8, 2011

Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 6 May 2011

Saturday, May 7, 2011

Craigs Investment Partners Picks Top Stocks

Friday, May 6, 2011

Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd: Presentation to Macquarie Australia Conference

Thursday, May 5, 2011

The Warehouse Group Ltd: Takeover Speculation Resurfaces

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