Share Price Alert: Xero Ltd 5

I wasn't sure Id be back so soon but here I am gassing about Xero Ltd [XRO.NZX]which is at $16.70 today, almost 50% higher than its share prices since we last visited this share in March 21 and short of its all time high of $18.90 reached a week or so ago.

This is higher than the $1.12 price it was trading at back in July 2007  and way higher than its 2007 IPO price of a dollar.

What is the share trading at ridiculous prices like this then?

Well the reason is quite visible US buying, not by international standards but quite high in New Zealand for such a thinly traded stock. Most of the last $5, and more I suspect,  rise, can be put down to these insiders buying in the hope of making money off some fully news related stock - it has a mention at least a few times a week of something "hot" going on down at Xero headquarters and is undergoing a correction of sorts as we speak due to a few of these folk making enough moola.

It isnt massive buying though, almost 5 million or so most days - not yet hot.

Lets get this straight the rise in the share price has nothing at all to do with reality, the company has yet to make a profit, according to some it will be $200 million a year or more, but I have yet to be convinced that they will make a cent. These enterprises are highly speculative and the chance of them making a profit are close to zero.

The reason why the share price is so high, apart from a few Americans getting fatter, is speculation pure and simple and investors expect to see a profit, when it doesn't come the only way is down.

I value this share at $2.50.  


Xero Ltd @ Share Investor 

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c Shareinvestor 2013

Share Investor: Taking a Break

The Share Investor name hasn't gone away, its just taking a well earnt break, all is well and everything is fine, just nothing much interests me much, except I have taken a massive cut in the portfolio, 20%, and that's to do with personal things.

Soon as I return, I will let you know.

Keep in mind that Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd [FPH.NZ] is still in play (see previous post) and that commentators about what I have and how I measure it are entitled to your opinions, I will continue to measure the portfolio the way I want and publish the details - periodically.

Keep cool heads and safe and sound and lets be careful out there.

Share Investor

Darren


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c Share Investor 2013

Share Price Alert: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd 6

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd [FPH.NZX] has increased in value from $2.42 in April to $3.05 as I write today.

This is principally to do with the exchange rate finally showing some reality and well, tanking.

I have been talking about this for many years - as this is how long the wonky exchange rate has been well wonky -  and the movement over the last few days has been evidence of this paying off.

To be fair a decent chunk of this has been overbought and oversold - but thinking out loud 2 plus millionper cent dip in the US/NZ exchange rate gives the impetus for some positivity.

The exchange rate has fallen in the companies favour by about 5 c over the last month so it has been a  significant movement and could raise the companies profits by many millions as the price goes down?

Leaving this aside the company continues to perform with a history of increasing profits and revenue based on their manufacture and sale of high end, well sought after medical products that have high margins and a reputation for cutting edge technology which more often than not beats its competition.

So, Ive been picking this one for many years and its paying off. I picked it last year when every one was dumping it down to $1.85 and  bought some myself in January 2012  to go with my other 5000. 

I will pick a buy to $3.90 for the short term investor and all the way to $3.30 for long term. This has changed somewhat from my previous $3.00 because the company is performing alot better since.

Time to test the patience.

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare

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Discuss FPH @ Share Investor Forum
Download FPH Company Reports



Share Price Alert Series

Contact Energy Ltd 9

Contact Energy Ltd 8

Contact Energy Ltd 7

Contact Energy Ltd 6

Fletcher Building Ltd 5 
Auckland International Airport Ltd 
Kathmandu Holdings Ltd 2
Mainfreight Ltd 3
Fletcher Building Ltd 4
Fletcher Building Ltd 3
Port of Tauranga Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd 5
Ecoya Ltd
Contact Energy Ltd 4
The Warehouse Group Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd 3
Contact Energy Ltd 2
Xero Ltd 2
Pumpkin Patch Ltd 4
Pumpkin Patch Ltd 3
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 4
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 3
Port of Tauranga Ltd
Freightways Ltd 3
Goodman Fielder Ltd 2
Freightways Ltd 2
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 2
Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Charlies Group Ltd
Fletcher Building Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd
Steel & Tube Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd
New Zealand Stock Exchange Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd 2
The Warehouse Group Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd 2
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd 2
Fletcher Building Ltd
Restaurant Brands Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd
Tourism Holdings
Goodman Fielder Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
NZ Refining Ltd
Freightways Ltd
Xero Ltd 


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c Shareinvestor 2013

Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 13 May 2013

The Share Investor Portfolio  is well up on the previous posting made a couple of weeks ago.  

The amount of dividends is zero as they are now used for something else so wont be reported here. 

There are also approx $60,000.00 in tax credits earned from the portfolio since it began in late 2002.

My NZX and ASX Portfolio $226,402.72 (76.43%)$296,216.28

New Zealand Securities

as at 16:45:37, Monday 13 May, 2013 (NZT)

Stock			Quantity	Total cost	Market price	Market value	Change	%
		AIA	5,000	$6,291.65 DR	$3.175	$15,875.00	$9,583.35	152.32%
		ASBPB	10,000	$6,607.00 DR	$0.770	$7,700.00	$1,093.00	16.54%
		BGR	3,000	$1,598.85 DR	$2.530	$7,590.00	$5,991.15	374.72%
		CEN	9,200	$44,892.00 DR	$5.520	$50,784.00	$5,892.00	13.12%
		FBU	1,000	$6,318.00 DR	$8.560	$8,560.00	$2,242.00	35.49%
		FPH	20,000	$41,816.50 DR	$2.730	$54,600.00	$12,783.50	30.57%
		FRE	8,000	$18,890.52 DR	$4.470	$35,760.00	$16,869.48	89.30%
		HLG	1,000	$1,156.21 DR	$5.650	$5,650.00	$4,493.79	388.67%
		MFT	5,000	$26,676.75 DR	$10.600	$53,000.00	$26,323.25	98.67%
		MHI	10,000	$5,920.06 DR	$1.420	$14,200.00	$8,279.94	139.86%
		PPL	5,000	$11,843.00 DR	$1.120	$5,600.00	$6,243.00	52.71%
		RYM	5,000	$8,553.74 DR	$6.220	$31,100.00	$22,546.26	263.58%
		SKC	37,100	$62,774.00 DR	$4.500	$166,950.00	$104,176.00	165.95%
		WHS	15,000	$52,878.00 DR	$4.350	$65,250.00	$12,372.00	23.40%
76.43% Total cost Market value Change $296,216.28 DR $522,619.00 $226,402.72

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The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) by Benjamin Graham
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