POLL: Roy Morgan Poll, 24 October 2008

The Latest Roy Morgan Poll for October 24 2008 shows a comfortable lead for National and is in stark contrast to the October 10 Roy Morgan poll which showed Labour and National as close as 4.5%.

It is hard to see how  polling could vary by such a large amount over just a week without questioning the validity of last weeks poll which showed a break in the year long trend that today's poll re-confirms.

Federal Poll : Finding No. 4330 : This latest Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 743 electors from October 6-19, 2008. : October 24, 2008

In mid October 2008 with the “World Financial Crisis” worsening the New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National Party support at 43% (up 2.5%), a healthy lead over the Labour Party 32% (down 5.5%). If the Election were held this weekend the National Party would form Government with the help of a minor party.

Support for the Greens 11.5% (up 2.5%) is at its highest level since the last election, while support for NZ First is 4.5% (up 0.5%), ACT NZ 3.5% (unchanged), the Maori Party 2.5% (up 0.5%), Progressive Party 0.5% (down 0.5%), United Future 0.5% (down 0.5%) and Others and Independents 2% (up 0.5%).

The Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating (97.0 points, down 5.3 points) has dropped sharply, falling back below 100 after only a few weeks in ‘positive territory’. Only 23% of New Zealanders expect New Zealand as a whole to have good times economically over the next 12 months. Full article.

There will be another couple of polls this weekend, from Fairfax Nielson and Colmar Brunton and one last round of polls from the 4 main pollsters next week before an embargo the week of the election.

c Political Animal 2008