Today's Fairfax Nielsen poll suggests voters have been largely unmoved by the rapidly unfolding events of recent weeks, including a worsening economic outlook in the wake of the international credit crisis, the big campaign launches on Sunday, the release of National and Labour's economic packages, and the first televised leaders' debate between Labour's Helen Clark and National's John Key.
The poll puts National on 51 per cent and Labour on 33 per cent - figures virtually unchanged from a month ago.
Only the Green Party makes it above the 5 per cent threshold for winning seats in Parliament, rising two points to 7 per cent.
The biggest change has been in the preferred prime minister ratings, with Miss Clark moving up five points to 35 per cent. Mr Key is down two points to 43 per cent.
Every poll bar one recent Roy Morgan Poll last week has shown a trend of a lead by National and in polling it is the trend that should be believed and the trend continues to show a strong lead for National and New Zealanders wanting a change of Government.
Last weeks TV One Colmar Brunton Poll also confirms the trend established by the Fairfax poll
Interesting that last week Helen Clark belied the aforementioned Roy Morgan poll that showed the gap between Labour and National at a round 4 points but today's Fairfax Nielson poll which shows National well in the lead:
Mr Key said yesterday that the poll was encouraging, but there was still a long way to go, while Miss Clark made it clear she did not believe the result.
"That doesn't reflect the trend in other recent polls," she said.
Oh but it does Helen, it does.
Fairfax Nielson polls
Fairfax Nielson Poll: 20 Sept 2008
Fairfax Nielson Poll: August 16 2008
Fairfax Nielson Poll: 19 July 2008
Fairfax Neilson Poll: 21 June 2008
Fairfax Neilson Poll: 17 May 2008
Fairfax Neilson Poll: 23 Feb 2008
c Stuff.co.nz & Political Animal 2008
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