Thursday, August 6, 2009

Market Quickie: Sky TV Worth Watching




I have given Sky Network Television [SKT.NZ] a very wide birth over the years, I have never really understood a company that spent more than 10 years losing money and has only been making it for the last 3 or 4.

I guess they were building up a business?

I don't like its business model; a company that relies on continuous large amounts of capital to keep competition at bay doesn't make for a good long term return.

Sky is also at the mercy of Government regulation, currency fluctuation, product quality and large capital depreciation.

What I do like though (I am such a negative bugger) is that it is a virtual monopoly-in Pay TV terms -but even that is under threat by new technology (which SKY is trying to take a punt on) via the Internet and satellite TV and product.

It hasn't done well over the last year, with a more than 16% drop in profit to just over $NZ42 million in the half year to 31 Dec 2008 on higher revenue of nearly $350 million. This is due to higher capital costs, which I outlined above.

Why the hell then do I mention the company today if I see little redeeming about it in its day to day operations?

I kinda like its share price.

The shares are well off their low of $3.15 during the last 52 weeks but the corollary to that is that they are off their 52 week high of $5.10 and well off their all-time high of $6.75 in late 2006 (see 5 year chart above)

I reckon this company is worth a good short-term to medium term punt.



Sky Network Television @ Share Investor

Watching Sky Television
Market Quickie: Sky TV Worth Watching

Discuss SKT @ Share Investor Forum
Download SKT Company Reports




Buy Toughen Up: What I've Learned About Surviving Tough Times

Toughen Up: What I've Learned About Surviving Tough Times

Toughen Up - Fishpond.co.nz

c Share Investor 2009

Get me a Mogadon already, I'm over-stimulated

I wasn't going to write anything else about the state of the economy, In April I was getting bored with the relentless bad news; stockmarket plunges, company collapses and endless Government "stimulation" plans to resurrect economies all around the world and I thought I would devote my writing to getting down to the day to day business of the operation of the stockmarket and company performance.

Oh how things have changed.

Gee, now that the economy is improving, I thought I would have another go at telling you what I think about our economic situation and the apparent green shoots that are now starting to turn into large bamboo poles.

All the signs are that a large number of global economies are improving, economic indicators are up, banks are doing better, company profits are consistent with forecasts, manufacturing looks like it might have reached bottom, more cars are being sold (mmm), all is rosy with the world and Elvis and Michael Jackson are recording a duet in a Burger King somewhere in Kentucky.

This may indeed all be happening, but if you ask yourself why, then you might find yourself uncovering more questions than you answer.

This apparent lazerous turnaround in our collective economic fortunes -it isn't even a very strong one but people are behaving like it is-is linked to one thing and one thing only, the shit load of money that Barrack Obama and his progressive mates the world over have dumped into their economies.

But that is a good thing and its real right?

Well, no is the answer to both of those questions.

I have pointed this out before but this money is being printed by various central banks worldwide and some of it is borrowed and eventually it is going to have to be paid back.

That means higher taxes for those that are working, the middle classes primarily, and more wealth used to service debt and less productivity, in other words another recession sometime in the future or a continuation of the current one.

Socialism doesn't work, borrowing money to give to people to buy cars, shoes, computers, purchase imaginary carbon credits and flat screen TVs may seem like a paradise that keeps the wheels of commerce greased but what it actually does is put off the inevitable.

I really hate to be a pessimistic little bastard but we should all be very skeptical of these signs of economic recovery because they hide the fact that it is based on a lie and is not sustainable in the long run.

I know we have been stimulated to the point of a straight jacketed stupor but we really should ditch the over-priced Starbucks, cigarettes and borrowed moola and wake up.

Dont get me wrong, economically things are going to get better and business is doing OK, we just have to "get on and do it". But its time for careful rethink when it comes to the signs that things are all rosy again.

They are not, and we should learn not to get carried away with it all as some of us are currently doing -the big bounce in global stockmarkets is evidence of that.

Cautious optimism is needed.

Back to stocks again tomorrow.


Recent Share Investor Reading

Discuss this topic @ Share Investor Forum


Related Amazon Reading

Stimulus Cash Finder: How to get your Share of the $787 Billion Stimulus Bill
Stimulus Cash Finder: How to get your Share of the $787 Billion Stimulus Bill by Rupert Hart
Buy new: $9.95
Usually ships in 24 hours

2009 Congressional Stimulus Bill
2009 Congressional Stimulus Bill by 111th Congress
Buy new: $0.99
Usually ships in 24 hours


c Share Investor 2009

Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Questions for Sky City Entertainment Group CEO Nigel Morrison

Read the Interview

After being emailed yesterday by Nigel Morrison, CEO of Sky City Entertainment Group [SKC.NZ] over a piece that I wrote last week about Bruce Sheppard's take on the company's debt levels, he ended the email asking if there is anything he could do to help out.

I sent back an email thanking him, then it occurred to me that there was something I wanted from him.

An interview!

So I emailed him back asking if he would answer some questions from myself, other Sky City shareholders and other readers of this blog and he kindly answered in the affirmative.

So, now is the chance dear readers to put some questions to Nigel.

You can submit them at the Share Investor Forum here or email them to me here and I will submit the best ones to Nigel.

The interview will come out after the company Full Year result that is now coming out early, on Wednesday 19 Aug instead of the following week. It will be published here sometime in early September as I will be away for a couple of weeks in Bangkok soon, so it will take some time to put together.

Read the Interview

Disclosure: I own SKC shares in the Share Investor Portfolio

Sky City Entertainment Group @ Share Investor

Discuss this stock @ Share Investor Forum


Related Amazon Reading

Casino Management: A Strategic Approach (Casino Essential Series)
Casino Management: A Strategic Approach (Casino Essential Series) by Kathryn Hashimoto
Buy new: $60.89 / Used from: $44.82
Usually ships in 24 hours

AMAZON - Sony Bravia XBR KDL-46XBR6 46-Inch 1080p 120Hz LCD HDTV


c Share Investor 2009

Monday, August 3, 2009

A Closer look: Domino's Pizza Enterprises Ltd



I have always been a big fan of fast food, as a consumer and as an investor.

I used to have a stake in Restaurant Brands Ltd [RBD.NZX], the New Zealand franchisee of Pizza Hut, KFC and Starbucks.

As business these sorts of companies are excellent ones to own, if they are well managed, cost and service levels kept on top of and food quality maintained.

If none of these things are adhered to they can be a license to go out of business. RBD has struggled for years with the operation of its Pizza Hut franchisee, finally relenting and selling the business to owner operators.

Domino's Pizza Enterprises Ltd [DMP.ASX] is the Australian listed pizza chain franchisee that runs over 750 Domino's pizza outlets in Australia, New Zealand, France, Belgium, The Netherlands and the Principality of Monaco of all places and like most other fast food chains is currently doing well, with a huge rise of profit forecast that is to be announced 19 August because of the switch from going out to eat to punching the keypad and settling down on the couch with a pizza and Coke.

Webcast ImageWebcast
Q2 2009 Domino's Inc.[DPZ.NYSE] Earnings Conference Call (Replay)
07/22/09 at 11:00 a.m. ET

To be fair Domino's has been growing outlets, sales and profit for a few years before the current boom and it is a very well operated business, with a focus on the bottomline and customer satisfaction the two main keys to its success and it has ambitious plans to keep growing. It has grown quickly by purchases of other pizza brands, adding sub-franchisees and good old-fashioned organic growth through efficiencies and great marketing.

But beware the fast food business or any food business for that matter can be a fickle one. Pizza, more than any other slice of this market seems to have very big swings in business cycles from boom to bust and they operate on wafer thin margins and high throughput, with constant competition from mum and dad pizza stores to the other large and smaller chains.

Domino's does have an edge though. It specializes in one thing and does it well and its owner operators are the secret to the Australian Franchisor success (Domino's OZ is itself a Franchisee of big daddy Domino's Inc [DPZ.NYSE] in the USA but in turn has franchisees that own and operate individual stores that provide a percentage of their store turnover which is Domino's OZ main form of income-apart from sales from its company owned stores ) driving the Domino's brand, literally, to become the worlds largest Pizza Delivery and sales company.

Domino's Australia seems to be near the top of their current growth phase but having said that there will be more boom times to come and lets hope their good management gets them through the troughs to come.

The ASX listed stock seems fully priced at current levels and is worth adding to your portfolio during its down cycles.

Domino's @ Share Investor

Domino's Australia dominant in Australasia

The Dots get the Hots

Discuss Domino's Pizza Enterprises @ Share Investor Forum

Related Links

Domino's Pizza Enterprises - Corporate Website | Investor Relations

Image
DMP 2008 Annual Report - 10MB PDF

Related Amazon Reading

Getting Your Slice of the Pie: A Definitive Source for Prospering in Pizza
Getting Your Slice of the Pie: A Definitive Source for Prospering in Pizza by Tracy Powell
Buy new: $16.99 / Used from: $6.68
Usually ships in 24 hours

AMAZON - Sony Bravia XBR KDL-46XBR6 46-Inch 1080p 120Hz LCD HDTV


c Share Investor 2009

Stock of the Week: Methven Ltd




This edition of Stock of the Week focuses on little known company (unless of course if you are already a shareholder) Methven Ltd [MVN.NZ].

Methven is an up and coming star in the bathroom products/kitchenware area as far as delivering water to the consumer via their various faucet related products (it has been around for for 125 years) and it has recently had an overriding push to market high end to higher quality mass market products, rather than high volume lower quality mass market garbage from China or elsewhere and that is the main reason why I chose this stock.

Management are clearly on the ball too with their emphasis on the quality end of the mass market where higher margins are made, with a good niche to carve out, especially for a smaller Kiwi player that simply cannot compete on scale.

They haven't done spectacularly well over the last 12 months because of the building downturn, but with aspirations to become a global brand and the willingness to apply money to research new and innovative products, as well as pursuing growth by careful acquisitions Methven should be able to achieve their goals.

Growth will return once we start building again and in the meantime the company is focused on trimming unnecessary costs, to alleviate the temporary dip in profit.

As you can see from the chart above the share price has plumbed the depths to around 65c 4-5 months ago but that is off a 52 week high of NZ$1.74 and an all-time high of $2.80 near the end of 2008.

The dividend yield of just over 12% gross is also a very attractive feature of this stock and apparently will still look quite handsome even with the small profit drop.

Buy on weakness, there should be some stock price drops as the year plods on with the lower profit forecast.

Good luck!


Stock of the Week Series

Metlifecare Ltd
Auckland International Airport
Sky City Entertainment Group
Burger Fuel Worldwide
Michael Hill International
Contact Energy Ltd
The Warehouse Group
Fisher & Paykel Appliances


Methven Ltd @ Share Investor

Long Term View: Methven Ltd
Stock of the Week: Methven Ltd

Discuss MVN @ Share Investor Forum
Download MVN Company Reports


From Fishpond.co.nz

Bird on a Wire: The Inside Story from a Straight Talking CEO

Buy Bird on a Wire: The Inside Story from a Straight Talking CEO & more @ Fishpond.co.nz

Fishpond


c Share Investor 2010



AMAZON - Sony Bravia XBR KDL-46XBR6 46-Inch 1080p 120Hz LCD HDTV


c Share Investor 2009

Saturday, August 1, 2009

Sky City debts levels now more manageable

Sky City Entertainment Group [SKC.NZ] has been named by Bruce Sheppard as one of his list of NZX companies with debt worries.

Now that time has passed since Bruce debt analysis, on June 30 2008 figures, lets take a look and see whether his criticism about high debt levels is now warranted.

Lets look at company debt levels from the last 5 years:

FIVE YEAR SUMMARY














Consolidated Balance Sheets













As at 30 June


2008 2007 2006 2005 2004




$000 $000 $000 $000 $000









LIABILITIES















Current liabilities






Payables


121,668 119,501 100,776 97,005 93,619
Interest-bearing liabilities
- - - 100,758 101,000
Derivative financial instruments
- - 25 - -









Total current liabilities
121,668 119,501 100,801 197,763 194,619









Non-current liabilities





Interest-bearing liabilities
677,884 753,002 950,904 956,795 579,967
Subordinated debt - capital notes 123,772 123,756 123,720 121,510 149,644
Subordinated debt - SKYCITY ACES 186,538 161,410 177,956 - -
Deferred tax liabilities
77,891 52,992 60,596 45,438 -
Derivative financial instruments
23,561 50,774 3,072 - -
Convertible notes

- - - - 8,910
Other term liabilities

- - - - 27,216









Total Non-current liabilities
1,089,646 1,141,934 1,316,248 1,123,743 765,737









Total liabilities

1,211,314 1,261,435 1,417,049 1,321,506
960,356

Interest cover (EBITDA/Net Interest) 3.8x 3.3x 3.3x 3.4x 5.1x










Full 5 Year Financial Summary

We can see then that debt incurring interest or charges (of all different types) nearly doubled from 2004-2006 to over NZ $1.3 billion at its highest (due mainly to buying and financing Adelaide and Darwin casinos and cinema assets.) but since then, at balance date 30 June 2008, (Bruce's debt level comparison date) debt had been paid down to just under $1.1 billion.

In addition to that, the company has paid back $84 million with the proceeds of a capital raising and other debt reductions to take total debt to below $ 800 million, still high but more manageable and it leaves net debt to ebitda ratios that Bruce worried about down from 3.8x in June 2008 to below 2.5x as at 9 July 2009, the lowest ratio in 5 years.

This has further been alleviated by a large increase in profit and revenue for the 2009 Full Year result to be announced 26 August.

As I said above, debt levels are still very high but steps have been taken to change that and with good management the company has put itself in a position so that the business is functioning well and is an even better position now to consolidate this debt.

As interesting as Bruce Sheppard's company debt analysis has been it would be even more interesting to see how June 2008 stacks up with June 2009.

In Sky City's case I think he might assess that they have addressed his worries.

They have mine.


Disclosure: I own SKC shares in the Share Investor Portfolio

Sky City Entertainment Group @ Share Investor

Discuss this stock @ Share Investor Forum

Related links

You have to register at Share Investor Forum to see this content

Full 5 Year Financial Summary - Where the table above comes from
Correspondence between Bruce Sheppard & Sky City over debt levels
Sky City July Debt payback

Related Amazon Reading

Casino Industry in Asia Pacific: Development, Operation, And Impact
Casino Industry in Asia Pacific: Development, Operation, And Impact by Cathy Hsu
Buy new: $155.00 / Used from: $157.53
Usually ships in 24 hours


c Share Investor 2009

Friday, July 31, 2009

Stock of the Week: Metlifecare Ltd



Metlifecare Ltd [MET.NZ] has been on my watchlist for yonks. I already own Ryman Healthcare Ltd [RYM.NZ] I love this sector and it is because of its very high historical revenue and profit growth and its similar future protects as the number of older people (especially those greedy economy sucking baby boomers) increases in very large numbers

Metlifecare has been somewhat of a poor cousin to Ryman over the last few years when it comes to its profit. It has had a couple of big asset writedowns over the last 2 years and that has lead to a punishing in its stock price.

A great opportunity.

That is why it makes my Stock of the Week this week (better late than never, I know it is the end of the week) that, and it will bounce back into profit when property prices recover.

The stock has hit a 52 week low of NZ$1.38 and a high of $4.60 but that is well off its all time high of nearly 9 bucks reached not that long ago (see chart above) so you can see the potential for a good long term and medium term gain even if today's closing share price is $2.06.

Buy on weakness, there should be some more for this stock come its profit reporting in November.

Good luck!


Related Share Investor reading

Stocks on My Watchlist: Metlifecare Ltd
Why did you buy that stock? [Ryman Healthcare]
Time for retirement?

Discuss Metlifecare @ Share Investor Forum

Stock of the Week Series

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd

Xero Ltd
Auckland International Airport
Sky City Entertainment Group
Burger Fuel Worldwide
Michael Hill International
Contact Energy Ltd
The Warehouse Group
Fisher & Paykel Appliances

Related Amazon Reading

Small Investor Goes to Market: A Beginner's Guide to Picking Stocks
Small Investor Goes to Market: A Beginner's Guide to Picking Stocks by Jim Gard
Buy new: $14.95 / Used from: $0.01
Usually ships in 24 hours


c Share Investor 2009

Thursday, July 30, 2009

Market announcement delay abandonment should be just the start in NZX restructure

Further to my piece on insider trading of Sky City Entertainment Group [SKC.NZ] shares last week and a convenient waiver given by the NZX for Contact Energy Ltd's [CEN.NZ] David Baldwin to get rewarded for stuffing up, it appears that the NZX is relenting to pressure from the bearded one, Bruce Sheppard from the NZ Shareholders Association, to get market announcements, previously delayed to the poor and downtrodden like you and me, now available.

Those market participants who have had NZX terminals in their offices have been using this information to trade before it is available to us, of course this is highly illegal but as Bruce has pointed out, nobody has been prosecuted by NZX, the market regulator, let alone a case of insider trading taken before.

This delay has always confused me because the advantages this gives users of this information means millions of dollars in their pockets - am I a naive idiot?

It is one of those hangovers from a regulated market that has been held onto with great gusto but other relics of a bygone age still give the advantages to the big boys.

The granting of waivers to break NZX rules, lack of clear separation of the day to day running of the New Zealand Stockmarket and its regulation and the reluctance to piss off mates by prosecuting clear breaches of insider trading rules and other market hanky panky by brokers and insiders really needs to be scrutinized closely by Government stockmarket regulators the Securities Commission because the NZX ain't going to do it.

Sadly this is unlikely to happen in any sort of expedient manner, so it is up to people like you, me and stockmarket advocates like Bruce Sheppard to keep the pressure on Mark Weldon and his mates down there in Wellington.

Of course the thing that would keep the NZX a little more honest would be a little healthy competition, and as I pointed out some ten or so years ago, why couldn't a website be set up for stockmarket investors to directly buy and sell shares without a middleman getting involved?

I'm sure others with the tech savviness that I don't have would be able to pull off such a thing.

A great little opportunity for someone to have a go.


Recent Share Investor Reading


Related Amazon Reading

Investment Intelligence from Insider Trading
Investment Intelligence from Insider Trading by H. Nejat Seyhun
Buy new: $24.00 / Used from: $18.40
Usually ships in 24 hours


c Share Investor 2009

List of Bruce Sheppard's top NZX listed company debt worries (UPDATE 7)

Image result for bruce sheppard

This update adds GFF, SKT & SKC to the List

Further to rumblings made by Bruce Sheppard on behalf of the New Zealand Shareholder's Association in May that in his opinion, roughly 20 listed companies in New Zealand were breaching banking covenants and after writing to these companies 2 so far have replied to Bruce. He is naming names as each company replies to him.


1. Fisher & Paykel Appliances [FPA.NZ]

2. Nuplex [NPX.NZ]

3. Tourism Holdings [THL.NZ] - Read THL's letter to Bruce
4. Vector Ltd [VCT.NZ] - Read VCT's letter to Bruce

5. Freightways Ltd [FRE.NZ] - Read Bruce's letter to FRE & the reply
6. Skellerup Holdings [SKL.NZ] - Read Bruce's letter to SKL & the reply

7. Comvita Ltd [CVT.NZ] - Read Bruce's letter to CVT & the reply

8. Ebos Ltd [EBO.NZ] - Read Bruce's letter to EBO & the reply

9. Abano Healthcare Group [ABA.NZ] Read Bruce's letter to ABA & the reply

10. Metlifecare Ltd [MET.NZ] Read Bruce's letter to MET & the reply

11. Restaurant Brands Ltd [RBD.NZ] Read Bruce's letter to RBD & the reply

12. Kirkcaldie & Stains [KRK.NZ] Read Bruce's letter to KRK & the reply

13. Sky Network TV [SKT.NZ] Read Bruce's letter to SKT *

14. Sky City Entertainment Group [SKC.NZ] Read Bruce's letter to SKC & the reply

15. Goodman Fielder [GFF.NZ] Read Bruce's letter to GFF & the reply *


I will post the rest here as and when the other 5 odd companies reply to Brucie.

The laggers need to get a wriggle on, otherwise it wont look good for them.

Bruce is going to list those that didn't reply to him next week.


Disc I own FRE, SKC & GFF shares in the Share Investor Portfolio


Related Links

NZ Shareholders Association

Recent Share Investor Reading


Discuss this topic @ Share Investor Forum




c Share Investor 2009





2009 NBR Rich List

NBR have their rich list out today. The Herald has a preview. Graeme Hart is once again at the top of the heap, while the Fays, Richwhites, and Todds, as usual, fill in the top ten.

Still mostly old money on the list but great to see the self made man Hart continue to pull in the bucks.

Great to see acknowledgment, without the jealous sneering, of those who have worked hard and done well to enable themselves to get on such a list.

  1. Graeme Hart $2.75b
  2. Todd family $2.6b
  3. Eamon Cleary $2.1b
  4. Christopher and Richard Chandler $2.0b each
  5. Goodman family $1.8b
  6. Stephen Jennings $1.0b
  7. Erceg family $700m
  8. Douglas Myers $700m
  9. Sir Michael Fay $660m
  10. David Richwhite $660m

NBR @ Share Investor


2010 NBR Rich List
2009 NBR Rich List
2008 NBR Rich List
NBR Headlines


From Fishpond.co.nz

Every Bastard Says No: The 42 Below Story

Buy Every Bastard Says No - The 42 Below Story, by Geoff Ross & Justine Troy & more @ Fishpond.co.nz

Fishpond


c Share Investor 2009

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Help me, I am making good short term money, it must be time to sell ?

The stockmarket has been like an 18 year old on viagra over the last few weeks, but it can present a dilemna over whether to sell on your short term gains or hold for the bigger gains to follow over the years. Lets see if this piece can help you out.

I made some share purchases last Wednesday, The Warehouse Group [WHS.NZ] and Mainfreight Ltd [MFT.NZ] and two on July 6, Auckland International Airport [AIA.NZ] and Michael Hill International [MHI.NZ]

I also participated in 3 capital raisings (1 2 3) covering off Sky City Entertainment Group[SKC.NZ], Freightways Ltd [FRE.NZ] and Fletcher Building [FBU.NZ] which gave me extra shares mid June to add to the Share Investor Portfolio.

I have done particularly well with short term gains in all of these purchases as the local sharemarket has had a lazarous type recovery over the last few weeks.

At close of market today here have been my returns for these purchases over the last 4-6 weeks.


1. The Warehouse Group $1600.00 - 6.2%

2. Mainfreight Ltd $487.50 - 6.1%

3. Auckland Airport $440.00 - 14%

4. Sky City $1200.00 - 24%

5. Freightways $310.32 - 29%

6. Fletcher Building $225.66 - 37%

7. Michael Hill $350.00 - 8.5%


By any stretch of the imagination a $4613.48 or a 17.82 % average return for the last 6 weeks is pretty good, especially the $2000 plus return in the last week for my two recent purchases.

So why don't I sell?

Well, I think I can make more in the long term by simply holding good companies and collecting the dividends and tax credits along the way. One comment to a recent post reckons my buy and hold strategy is flawed and he can make more money getting in and out of shares quickly.

That maybe right, in fact I may have done it once or twice myself in my investing career, but if you do it intentionally you open yourself up to getting your trading profits taxed and I don't want to enter that level of investing, not just now anyway.

As you will see in my 10 editions of the Long VS Short series, the long term wins in the return stakes and it might also be worth noting that the resurgence of the market has also increased the value of the long-term Share Investor Portfolio by more than $40000.00 in less than a month.

But anything can happen when Mr Market has his crazy mood swings and the portfolio could lose all that in the next few weeks or few days for that matter.

Long vs Short Series

Fletcher Building Ltd
Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Michael Hill International
Auckland International Airport
Freightways Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Mainfreight Ltd
The Warehouse Group
Sky City Entertainment


Related Amazon Reading

Investing for the Long-Term (Market Strategies)
Investing for the Long-Term (Market Strategies) by Robert Linggard
Buy new: $20.90 / Used from: $14.66
Usually ships in 6 days

The Complete Guide to Investing in Short Term Trading: How to Earn High Rates of Returns Safely
The Complete Guide to Investing in Short Term Trading: How to Earn High Rates of Returns Safely by Alan Northcott
Buy new: $16.47 / Used from: $12.47
Usually ships in 24 hours


c Share Investor 2009