Friday, June 10, 2011

Roy Morgan Political Poll: 10 June 2011

It looks like the latest Roy Morgan Poll could be a rogue one with support for the Nats down around 4% overall. It is important to watch the trend of polls over the last 3 years and they have been consistently well above 50%:

The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows support for Prime Minister John Key’s National-led Government is at 53.5% (down 4%). Support for Key’s National Party is 49% (down 4%), the Maori Party 2.5% (up 0.5%), ACT NZ 1.5% (down 0.5%) and United Future 0.5% (unchanged).

Support for Opposition Parties is at 46.5% (up 4%) – Labour Party 36% (up 8%), Greens 6.5%, (down 3.5%), New Zealand First 2.5% (down 0.5%), Progressive Party 0% (down 0.5%) and Others 1.5% (up 0.5%).

If a National Election were held today the National Party would easily be returned to Government.

The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen 0.5 points to 127 with 55% (down 1.5%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 28% (down 2%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction.’

Full New Zealand Voting Results

Full poll here.

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Darren Hughes Saga: Lies and Cover-ups

Who believes Darren Hughes is squeaky clean over his late night, drunken, naked tryst with a young boy? Something unlawful cannot be proven but this incident DID happen, and it is at the very least grubby and untoward of somebody who might some day be representing others as a politician.


Most of us knew where there was smoke there was fire except the deluded, false, moral free left, who are backing him to the hilt. The victim of Hughes affections, the young boy he put the hard word on, has been labeled as a liar and a person not to be trusted. This accusation is one that fits Hughes, not the young boy.

So Mr Hughes has been lying from the beginning over this incident and as the police are not able to prove anything illegal happened Hughes has taken that as vindication of his innocence and in a statement 2 days ago pointed the finger at the boy.

The public must remember he has a history of drunkenness and loose behavior and the incident with this young lad, while not illegal, has vicious shades of influence from an older experienced man who the victim looked up to and if the victim was female there just may have been a different outcome from the police investigation.

I wonder if the complainant might like to undertake a private prosecution or at the very least do some sort of media assault?

Darren needs to come clean about what happened before it comes out some other way. It was a filthy, nasty night that ended in one persons reputation being ruined and another backpedaling as fast as he can to cover his well padded arse.


Darren Hughes @ Political Animal



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Thursday, June 9, 2011

Share Price Alert: Pumpkin Patch Ltd 3



Since my last Share Price Alert on Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL.NZX] back in March at $1.31, PPL shares have sunk another another 16c or 15% to close at a 52 week low of $1.15 yesterday.

The principle reason for this is negativity over the whole retail sector that comes off the back of a poor profit result out in March that was down 44% on last years result.

Of course the market knew of this back in January when a profit downgrade was announced to the market .

PPL shares have lost approx 46c this year so far and since an April 2010 high of $2.30 they have shed more than 55% of their value.

This presents an opportunity to buy PPL on the cheapish side.

I would be patient though, because management don't seem very clear about the future of the company (commentary in the profit release was confusing to me) and its trading proposition over the calendar year and further pressure is likely to come over the rest of 2011 as people close their wallets and head for cheaper less brand oriented fare.

This will not last however, PPL is a good brand and once the economy gets going again - whenever that is - we will see this company doing better as mums start to look for brands again.

Again, be patient and look for further weakness to buy.


Disc I own PPL shares in the Share Investor Portfolio

Share Price Alert Series

Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 4
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 3
Port of Tauranga Ltd
Freightways Ltd 3
Goodman Fielder Ltd 2
Freightways Ltd 2
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 2
Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Charlies Group Ltd
Fletcher Building Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd
Steel & Tube Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd
New Zealand Stock Exchange Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd 2
The Warehouse Group Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd 2
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd 2
Fletcher Building Ltd
Restaurant Brands Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd
Tourism Holdings
Goodman Fielder Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
NZ Refining Ltd
Freightways Ltd
Xero Ltd


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Discuss PPL @ Share Investor Forum
Download PPL Company Reports

Buy Pumpkin Patch Clothing

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c Share Investor 2011

Share Price Alert: Goodman Fielder Ltd 3

Goodman Fielder Ltd [GFF.NZX]is not one of my better investments. It has returned roughly zilch in the 5 years I have held it.

Never mind, this piece isn't about my poor investment choices but about timing your purchase at the right price.

An opportunity to buy has arisen again since a profit warning in April and a prior share price alert for this stock at $1.44. The share price has retreated since then by 18c or just below 15% to close at $1.26 yesterday. This is the 52 week low. A high of 2 bucks back in November 2010 shows how much value the company has lost in just 9 months.

The share price was last at these levels back in March 2009.

Profit has been impaired by higher commodity prices and unfavourable exchange rates - a common theme for this company for the last few years - and management have seen fit to move prices for their brands higher to recover those increased costs but too late to recover for the full year outlook.

The appointment of a new CEO on June 1 with a very generous and restrictive remuneration package and a lacklustre business history hasn't helped either.

Consumer pressure on price is going to make it hard going for the company to recover these costs as long as the current recession bites and consumers are tending to settle for non brand goods instead of buying some of the pricier brands that GFF offers.

All is not lost though, these Goodman brands are some of the best in the business, are staples on the family table and will continue to be sold and increase in sales when the economy returns to some sort of "normality".

The current share price returns a gross dividend of slightly over 11%, which is clearly a very attractive income given term investment rates of less than half this.

I am picking more softness in this share though and if you have been looking to buy this stock anyway patience is going to get it into your portfolio for less than the current share price.


Share Price Alert Series

Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 4
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 3
Port of Tauranga Ltd
Freightways Ltd 3
Goodman Fielder Ltd 2
Freightways Ltd 2
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 2
Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Charlies Group Ltd
Fletcher Building Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd
Steel & Tube Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd
New Zealand Stock Exchange Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd 2
The Warehouse Group Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd 2
Fletcher Building Ltd
Restaurant Brands Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd
Tourism Holdings
Goodman Fielder Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
NZ Refining Ltd
Freightways Ltd
Xero Ltd


Goodman Fielder @ Share Investor

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Discuss GFF @ Share Investor Forum
Download GFF company Reports

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c Share Investor 2011