Showing posts with label pumpkin patch. Show all posts
Showing posts with label pumpkin patch. Show all posts

Friday, November 9, 2007

Friday Brief

Took a small holding of a new company to the portfolio, Micheal Hill International(MHI) the New Zealand Jewelry chain, with stores in NZ, Australia and Canada.

Having been watching this one for a while and it wasn't getting any cheaper so I thought I would take the plunge before a 10 for 1 share split on Nov19.

The company has aspirations to be a global player and it is very well run and has a great attitude to capital management and prudent expansion.

I would group it with my recent additional purchases of Pumpkin Patch(PPL) as giving exposure to a global market for the long term portfolio for good long term returns.

Just an update on Burger Fuel(BFW)

An indicator of how crowded the gourmet burger market is in Sydney where BFW has two stores. A link to a critique of the food served at Burger Fuel and five other competitors

Shares are still languishing and they finished the day at 65c today. I missed this one but they opened a new store in Napier, a small town on New Zealand's North Island East Coast.


Here's the story:

BurgerFuel Opens Napier Store

BurgerFuel Worldwide Press Release – For immediate release

30 October 2007

BurgerFuel Opens Napier Store


Only a few weeks after opening its second Australian store in King’s Cross, BurgerFuel has opened another new store in Napier. BurgerFuel on Carlyle Street marks the 24th store for the company, with 22 across the North Island and 2 in Sydney, Australia.

Since listing on the NZAX in August, the company has opened a mix of both company owned and franchised stores.

The local franchisee for Napier is Andrew Coombe. Andrew is formerly a fire chief, who is going from fighting fires to fuelling the flames at BurgerFuel. The Napier store is in the new complex on Carlyle Street, on the site of the old Shell station. Andrew and his wife Anne are providing a new fuel stop for the people of Hawke’s Bay with the gourmet burger experience they both became addicted to, whilst working in Auckland.

The opening of the Napier store is seen as strategically important to BurgerFuel says Chris Mason CEO “We want people to enjoy a visit to BurgerFuel – wherever they may be. Our commitment to the provinces is just as important as city locations. As BurgerFuel increases store numbers, so too does our customer base grow. Eventually everyone should have access to New Zealand’s best gourmet burger”.


No Friday Free for all column this week but it will be back next week.


C Share Investor 2007

Thursday, November 8, 2007

Fear and Greed are Lovely things

ARRRRRRRRGGGGHHH!!!!!

http://www.iaconoresearch.com/BlogImages/07-02-27_djia_sp_naz.png
The DOW doing its thing today



I don't know about you but I'm buying.

The current sell offs of some of my favourite stocks that I already hold I have added to and picked up some new ones.

I added to my Pumpkin Patch(PPL) Portfolio again yesterday and included additions to my portfolio of Kiwi Income Property(KIP) and Postie Plus Group(PPG)

I'm not going to the New Years day sales but I'm going to participate in this one.

If you are a long term investor you would be almost mad if you didn't...well on second thoughts each to his own but.

It just goes to show that the fear and greed labels apply the most when the markets are most volatile and that those that don't follow the herd are more likely to do better in the market long term.

Who knows if we are going to see a substantial sell off of stocks as the New Zealand economy tanks and the US is having a few flutters over high oil prices, all I know is that I like to buy when stock prices are going down.

C Share Investor 2007

Wednesday, November 7, 2007

Pumpkin Patch VS Burger Fuel

Sitting in the Takapuna KFC today eating my 3 piece quarter pack I got to thinking about brands again.

Putting the Colonel's badly run brands in this country aside I would like to discuss two up and coming brands that have their genesis in New Zealand and both with ambitions on a global scale.


Image result for pumpkin patch clothing

Pumpkin Patch(PPL) the trendy kids wear manufacturer and retailer and Burger Fuel (BFW) the trendy Gourmet Burger maker share few traits with the well established KFC brand as operated in NZ.

Both PPL and BFW are in the infant stage as far as size and brand awareness go, although Pumpkin Patch seems to have a very high brand recognition even in areas where they don't have stores and one could assume on that fact alone it could become a true global brand.

BFW are well established in New Zealand, with two stores in Australia and the brand is seen as the place to buy quality fast food.

PPL are similarly ensconced in NZ and Australia and have a small presence in the US and UK. They are represented in other international markets via department stores and mail order.

PPL have a total of just over 200 stores and BFW just over 20 and both had their beginnings in the early 1990s.

Both companies have had their images carefully nurtured over the last 15 years or so and that attention to the brand has paid off and will continue to sustain growth as they look to go global.


http://www.franchise.co.nz/listing/logo_path/23/BurgerFuelLogoweb.jpg


While BFW only listed this year PPL got the jump in 2004 and has grown substantially since then, entering the US West Coast and now in Texas and New York.

The biggest risk for PPL is the cost factor, as they expand from a small base, likewise ,BFW will struggle as they enter new markets. This is likely to be ameliorated as economies of scale kick in and the brand gets additional awareness.

Strong branded companies like Starbucks have expanded this way. From their local area of Seattle they quickly spread their well managed brand across the US States and then globally.

Burger Fuel and Pumpkin Patch will attempt something similar in reverse. Probably harder to achieve than Starbucks but with their strong brands both these companies have a great shot.

The US market is arguably the most important market for both companies and the scale and exposure that will be available to them will either make or break them.

The cost of expansion will be high and must be done carefully and with much thought and planning. Getting it wrong in the US could well mean the death of either company. It is a very competitive market and there are giants there ready to match your product.

Thankfully, as management of Burger Fuel and Pumpkin Patch have been careful to keep their brands as strong as they are, as they have grown, this has given them an edge as they expand overseas and any company with an edge on the competition through strong brands and therefore brand recognition will have a better chance of surviving in a though market like the USA.

The possibilities for growth of these companies is truly mind boggling.

With around 100 Pumpkin Patch stores in Australia and a population of 20 million, it doesn't take much to extrapolate the figures in the US alone, with a population of 300 million.

The possibilities in India and China, while probably many years down the track, is enough to make ones eyes water.

Burger Fuel's future growth story isn't as easy to gauge as they have just started their foreign expansion although it will probably be tougher for them to expand than PPL as the fast food sector in which they operate in has a lot more competition. Their strong brand and differentiation to the competition will make this task easier however.

While not guaranteed global success and the associated riches that would surely follow, Pumpkin Patch and Burger Fuel have put their global expansion plans squarely in the hands of two very strong brands in the markets in which they currently operate.

Their success will hang largely on how new consumers respond to their carefully crafted brands and the backup management give them.


Disclosure I own PPL Shares



Burger Fuel Worldwide @ Share Investor


Burger Fuel Worldwide: Losses Mount
Burgerfuel: Dubai Marketing Hype!!!
Burger Fuel 2010 Full Year Profit Analysis
Burger Fuel 2010 Full Year Profit Preview
Burger Fuel Worldwide: 2009 Half Year profit analysis
Stock of the Week: Burger Fuel Worldwide
Download full company analysis from Thomson First-Call
Burger Fuel doesn't rule out capital raising
Burger Fuel Worldwide: Closer look at Company Accounts
Analysis - Burger Fuel Worldwide: FY profit to 31/03/09
Burger Fuel: Running on Empty
Burger Fuel leaves investors hungryBurger Fuel management cagey over company progress
Burger Fuel cooks up Dubai deal
NZX share trades with strings attached
Don't buy Burger Fuel, yet
Burger Fuel: Inside info?
Burger Fool IPO: Burger Fool?
Exclusive Interview with Burger Fuel's Josef Roberts
Burger Fuel's Daytime drama
Burger Fuel share price out of gas
Beefing up store numbers
Director explains share price drop
Burger Fuel slims down in value
Burger Fuel and Coke
Marketing Burger Fuel's future
Pumpkin Patch VS Burger Fuel
Burger Fuel results and commentary

Discuss BFW @ Share Investor Forum - Register free
 





c Share Investor 2007






Friday, September 21, 2007

Share Investor's Friday Free for all: Edition 4

Safety in Numbers

The week began with Rabobank defying the depressed debt market raising NZ$900 Million after initially wanting to raise $400 Million. It just goes to show that quality wins out every time and money that has been pulled from shaky finance companies has found a new safe home.

Pumpkin Patchy

Pumpkin Patch (PPL) the trendy New Zealand children's clothing retailer, reported a full year 2007 profit slightly down for the 2007 year to $27 million. Revenue was up strongly but expansion costs, high interest rates, wages and other fixed business costs rose.

The Patch is bullish on expansion, especially in the USA and is expecting a better contribution from New Zealand and Australia next year.

10-4, looks like we got a convoy

Mainfreight (MFT) the ever growing New Zealand trucking company this week plunked down US $53.7 million for the US international freight forwarder and logistics provider, Target Logistics which is publicly listed on the US Stock Exchange.

Mainfreight Boss Don Braid said the transaction would provide Mainfreight with a foundation for further growth in the US and international freight markets.

The purchase will be earnings positive and continues the companies wish to grow the company substantially by clever acquisitions and organic growth.

Sales grow slowly at fast food company

Restaurant Brands (RBD) the operator of KFC, Pizza Hut and Starbucks had a better sales report this week.

The company today reported second quarter sales across its three New Zealand businesses up 5.8 per cent to $93.6 million, with same store sales up 5 per cent.

KFC sales were up 11.7 per cent for the 16 weeks ended September 10, compared to the second quarter a year earlier. Despite recent stellar sales increases KFC sales are still well off historical sales figures when adjusted for inflation.

Starbucks Coffee was up a steady 6.7 per cent for the second quarter from a year earlier, while Pizza Hut began to improve but still produced an overall sales decline of 7.5 per cent.

It looks like the profit announcement in October, which should be allot better than last reporting, will push the share price closer to the $1 mark, the market has valued the stock at less than a buck for most of the year, don't count your chickens yet though.

Can Canadians Fly?

Not content with just flicking through and buying Telecom's Yellow Pages, another Canuck pension outfit is in town to make a bid for New Zealand's largest airport.

The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board says it has come up with three options for acquiring a significant minority stake in Auckland International Airport Ltd(AIA)

They include an all cash option of $3.70 per share.

The other two options, which would provide a value of up to $3.90 per share, would involve a combination of cash and the issue of new securities that provided enhanced returns while preserving the investment grade rating of AIAL.

The market saw the shares increase in price to around $3.30 on the day of the announcement so it has probably factored in a likelihood that this deal isn't necessarily going to fly.

In my opinion, local and central government opposition will sink any possible deal.

Shame really, while Canadians are a little odd at times they certainly get my approval over AIA's last suitor Dubai Aeronautical Enterprise.

Time for a climate change

The nonsense that was the New Zealand Labour Party's Carbon Trading and tax plan to ameliorate the non-existent "global warming" problem hit Kiwis right between their wallets on Thursday.

The thirst by socialists for more of our tax money was outlined by David (eyes closed) Parker the Climate Change Minister.

Consumers will pay more for oil, gas, electricity and just about everything else we buy, unless they are low income earners and then the middle classes will simply subsidise these individuals so they can continue to pollute.

I am reminded of the failure of "fairy dust" schemes like carbon trading that have come crashing down in the past.

From the great tulip bulb craze in Europe in the 1600s to the Carbon Trading scheme invented by Enron in the 1990s. Both of these failed, miserably.

The taxes placed on our economy with the excuse of global warming by the present government are likely to do the same.

Waiting for the Ace Card

Casino and cinema operator SkyCity Entertainment Group(SKC) has received a takeover bid from an as yet unnamed party.

Seems an odd way of informing the market without really saying much at all!

The offer would have to be significantly over the current share price of $5.27 for my good self to accept any offer as it is part of my long-term portfolio and has been for 5 years and I own a very large parcel. In fact I went on a buying spree this week and bought some more SKC, as well as a significant parcel of The Warehouse(WHS) for the large dividend payout and imputation credit feast.

If you are a short-term investor you should probably run for the hills today but if you have bought this company as an investment then I wouldn't sell for less than 8 bucks, not that the offer is going to be this high.

There were rumours of Tattersalls and Tabcorp being the suitors but Tabcorp has scotched their inclusion. Does such a quick denial have any deeper meaning?

Thought Id just put it out there.

NZX market Wrap

A huge rise by takeover target Sky City(SKC) and a solid Fletcher Building(FBU) lifted the benchmark index today, outweighing a 3 per cent slide in top stock Telecom(TEL)

Sky City said it has received an indicative and confidential approach from a party interested in acquiring all its shares.

The news boosted the casino company's stock to a record high of $5.56, before it closed up 22 per cent, or 95c, at $5.28 on turnover totalling $96.8m.

Fletcher Building announced today that it had raised over $300 million in debt to cover bridging loans used to fund the recent Formica Corp purchase. Fletcher Building rose 3 per cent, or 40c, to $12.80

The NZSX-50 index ended the week up 0.6 per cent, or 24.28 points, at 4231.16 on turnover totalling $231.5 million.

Top stock Telecom(TEL) was down 13c, or nearly 3 per cent, at $4.29. Contact Energy(CEN) fell a cent to $9.33, Fisher & Paykel Healthcare (FPH) lost 4c to $3.45, F&P Appliances fell a cent to $3.57 (FPA) and Auckland Airport(AIA) lost a cent to $3.24 after rising strongly this week on a Candian pension bid for the company.

Sky TV (SKT)was up 4c at $5.52, Air New Zealand (AIA)rose 3c to $2.22, The Warehouse(WHS) gained 3c to $6.08, Infratil(IFT) was down 2c at $2.98, and Hellaby(HBY) was up 10c at $2.90.

Freightways(FRE) fell 2c to $3.68, Sanford(SAN) rose 4c to 4$.55, and Nuplex(NPX) was up 7c at $7.02.

Guinness Peat Group(GPG) shares fell 4c to $1.89 after the lifting of its trading suspension.

GPG recently quit its $3.62 per cent stake in NZX at a market discount of $9.50. NZX shares closed down 10c today at $9.50.

Disclosure: I own AIA, PPL, SKC, MFT shares

C Share Investor 2007


Monday, September 17, 2007

Pumpkin Patch profits Flatten

http://www.pumpkinpatch.biz/images/logo.gif


Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL.NZ] the small global trendy kids clothing retailer, has announced its full year profit today and reported an annual net profit after tax down 3.2 per cent to NZ$27.6 million.

Sales revenues were up 17.9 per cent to $365.7 million for the year to the end of July.

The high $NZ exchange rate hit net profit as foreign revenue is brought back to head office, which is in New Zealand.

The network of stores increased by 35 over the last year to 200 but the expansion, especially in the US and UK markets hit the bottom line as logistical frameworks were put in place for further future expansion.

It looks likely that company profits will remain flat in the near term because of the increased costs of expansion in combination with what looks to be a kiwi dollar that will remain high.

Currently the company is suffering from high tariffs being placed on Pumpkin Patch product in the UK and the US but there has been some movement by those particular authorities to change tariff quotas. Management are hopeful.

Clearly increasing revenues from expansion will offset the increasing costs of same but the full benefit will only be seen once economies of scale can be brought to the US and UK divisions and that is going to take some considerable time in my opinion.

Micheal Hill International [MHI.NZ]is facing similar business start up problems as it establishes its jewelry chain in Canada.

It seems that once a brand enters into a new market it takes a year or two before it builds enough momentum and gets recognized and loved as it already is in Australia and New Zealand.

Australia already has 102 stores and NZ has the most per capita of the countries that it operates in, at 50.

The main growth area for Pumpkin Patch is going to be the USA. Pumpkin Patch opened its first US store in Los Angeles in 2005. Stores are predominately located on the West Coast but further sites are being sought in the Southwest.

Two stores have been opened in Texas and management have announced today that they will be moving into East Coast locations soon.

My guess is that the US has room for around 1000 stores so the company is clearly going to be a very different one in the 10 years or more that this is going to take, if the company keeps its head above water in this very tough and uncompromising market.

Short term, sales in New Zealand and Australia markets, where most of the Patch profit is earned, are likely to be dampened by a weak economy, with high interest rates, increased taxes and other living expenses having impacts on individuals non-essential spending habits.

Long-term though, if company expansion is successful, then we are likely to see an excellent returns for shareholders.


A final dividend for 2007 of 4.5c per share will be paid 17th October 2007, with a record date of 5th October 2007.

PPL shares closed up 5c today to $3.30, close to its lows for the year.

*Disclosure: I own PPL shares


Pumpkin Patch @ Share Investor

Long vs Short: Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Buyback shows Confidence in the Future
Pumpkin Patch takes a hit
Pumpkin Patch ripe for the picking
What is Jan Cameron up to?

I'm buying
Why did you buy that Stock? [Pumpkin Patch]
Rod Duke's Pumpkin Patch gets bigger
Buyer of large piece of Pumpkin Patch a mystery
Pumpkin Patch a screaming buy
Broker downgrades of PPL lack long term vision
Pumpkin's expansion comes at a cost
Pumpkin Patch vs Burger Fuel
Pumpkin Patch profits flatten
New Zealand Retailers ring up costs not tills

Related Links

Pumpkin Patch financial data

Related Amazon reading

Attracting the next generation of customers: retailers offer insights into marketing to kids.(Cover story): An article from: Hardware Retailing

Attracting the next generation of customers: retailers offer insights into marketing to kids.(Cover story): An article from: Hardware Retailing by Luke Dunscombe
Buy new: $9.95
Available for download now


c Share Investor 2007

Sunday, May 6, 2007

Business Mis-Management

Image result for mis business management

The recent and distant past of company management and its track record in New Zealand leave a lot to be desired.

While the calibre of management in selected companies listed on the NZX is clearly very good: Mainfreight Ltd [MFT.NZ], Pumpkin Patch, Michael Hill, Fletcher Building, Rakon among a shortlist, the great bulk of management is littered with far too many candidates for the top prize of mis-manager of the year.

On the negative side the list includes Feltex at the top followed by Restaurant Brands ,with Telecom, The Warehouse(previous Management)Tourism Holdings and Sky City all worth a mention.

The bottom rung seem to share some common traits. Basic bad decision making, at times it is part of the culture- Telecom, in Feltex Carpets case bad decision making was endemic and used to cover up problems, Restaurant Brands suffers from a culture of denial when it comes to decision making-witness the complete ignorance of store level service, Tourism Holdings simply couldn't make a decision as to what their problems were caused by and Sky City Ltd [SKC.NZX] has made a hastie decision to buy a cinema unit that drags down profit and is capital hungry for no return but they refuse to make the decision to let go and cut lose a bad business.

The Warehouse's woes were widely canvassed but they suffered from a man,Tindall, that rushed into a new business with too much confidence, ignoring basic differences in the shopping culture of 2 different countries.

Managers are paid to manage and that means, as much as possible, decisions being made at the right time and in the right direction as consistently as possible. When managers begin to garner a track record of bad decision making, it is time to look at the problem, fix it if possible or move that manager on if an easy fix isn't possible.

Shareholders need to have a means of making their opinions known to those who manage their investment in the company they have bought and apart from the likes of Bruce Sheppard from the Shareholders Association, the rest of us appear to be sheep when it comes to standing up for our vote on the board.

The buck stops with the person at the top rung of management but a clear stumbling block with our listed and private companies is the bottleneck of middle managers ,who often serve the purpose of mere relay people, of information from productive workers on the shop floor to those executives at the top. We could do with less of these people in our companies, in my humble opinion they can confuse the clear messages that must get through from upper management to shop floor and back in order for a company to function efficiently and competently.

Restaurant Brands suffers from this syndrome in spades. Store workers don't get to communicate clearly as to what is going on at store level directly to upper management, problems are filtered through a multifaceted layer of store, area and regional management before getting operating concerns to the top.

Of course RBD store managers often don't have the motivation to let upper management know if there are problems at store level anyway, lest they be in the gun themselves. This happens to a lesser extent in other New Zealand companies but is still clearly a problem. Telecom suffers badly from the same syndrome.

The solutions to our problems may lay in what Toyota calls the "Toyota Way" that is, where there is a free flow of reciprocal critical information between upper management and productive workers. In essence this means that a shop floor worker has access directly to upper management and vice versa.

Like a pyramid of cheerleaders whispering advice from the bottom of the pile to the top, by the time it gets there the message is often completely different from its original form. Remove the middle of the pyramid and it will collapse but remove middle management from the management pyramid and it will serve to make the company stronger.



Related Share Investor Reading
    
The Intelligent Investor: Book review
Mr Market gets his groove on
Business Gobbledygook puts up barriers



Amazon

KFC in China: Secret Recipe for SuccessKFC in China: Secret Recipe for Success by Warren Liu
Buy new: $14.99 / Used from: $2.43
Usually ships in 24 hours





c Share Investor 2007