Showing posts with label IPO. Show all posts
Showing posts with label IPO. Show all posts

Monday, May 2, 2011

Share Investor's Letter to BioVittoria

Just a note to the owners of BioVittoria, the New Zealand natural-sweetener company that was forced to abort an attempt at listing on the NZX in 2009 due to a lack of market support.

Although I have heard of your company, your attempt to raise funds passed me by because I wasn't really informed that this was happening. Brokers in the past have emailed and called me about every other dog company under the sun - not that there have been many attempted listings since 2009 or since anytime really - but yours sadly must have gone into the spam box or the broker could see how good your company was and wanted to do his own deal.

BioVittoria folks, appears to be at the cutting edge of the "alternative" sweetener market occupied by Aspartame, otherwise known as Nutrasweet , Sucralose and a few others. These alternative sweeteners are in thousands of food products, most know that the major soda makers have these products in their brands like Coca Cola Zero, Pepsi Max etc and they are also in Wrigley products like Extra chewing gum but most of us probably dont know that alot of our everyday consumer products contain a sugar substitute.

In some of these products though, notably the soda drinks, the consumer can tell that what they are eating or drinking doesn't taste like sugar at all and in fact maybe harmful to ones health if used long-term. This is where BioVittoria comes in, not only is their product Fruit-Sweetness™ it a "Natural Sweetener" the makers claim it doesn't have any health side affects, it is calorie free and tastes great.

That and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has certified that its Fruit-Sweetness branded monk fruit concentrate is GRAS (Generally Recognized As Safe). The kicker is that a 12% portion of BioVittoria has just been sold to food ingredients company Tate & Lyle and T &L now has a 5 year agreement to dsitribute Fruit-Sweetness™.

Now this is going to allow BioVittoria to compete in the US$50-billion ($62.5b) a year global sweetener market.

"This agreement opens doors to some of the world's largest food and beverage companies, giving a significant boost to our expansion into international markets.'' BioVittoria CEO David Thorrold

Now I don't know about you but I would want to invest in any company that has such a significant product that appears to have no comparative competition (yet) in a fast growing market worth 50 billion bucks, especially at the very beginning.

So please take note David Thorrold and your fellow directors I am very interested in investing in your company should you want the try the NZX again and I am sure lots of my readers would be as well.

Lord knows we need some good companies to enter the NZX IPO market before it disappears completely - only half joking.


Related Links

BioVittoria.com Monkfruit.org

New Zealand, Asia Pacific
Phone: 64 7 857 0521
info@biovittoria.com
srl@biovittoria.com

China
Phone: 86 773 355 0105
garth@biovittoria.com

USA
Phone: 1 847 226 3467
paul_paslaski@biovittoria.com


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c Share Investor 2011

Monday, May 3, 2010

Ecoya IPO lights only one end of the candle

Ecoya Ltd [ECO.NZ] lists on the NZX this morning, Monday May 3 2010, but it begins its public life with an underwhelming IPO that only just lit one end of a scented candle.

There was NZ$10.1 million raised out of a possible $13 million (if you include over-subscriptions) with 2.5 million shares allocated to insiders topping up the money raised.

The economy isn't exactly firing at the moment so it could be that overall negative feeling having an effect on capital raising.

Having said that, in the thick of stockmarket and economic turmoil in 2009 many capital raisings were done by NZX listed firms and most if not all were well sort after and heavily oversubscribed so it proves where quality and stability of earnings is on the positive side of the ledger there is an appetite for investors to plunk down money.

There has been a dearth of high quality IPOs for many a year on the NZX, and in the absence of Fonterra or some of the taxpayer owned electricity companies listing, the future for investing in public companies looks a little bleak.

Don't get me wrong there is room for the riskier investment proposition that Ecoya is, but everyday investors in the stockmarket like myself want to see good medium to large companies coming to market with a proven track record, good balance sheet, a good economic advantage and reasonable future prospects.

The market has proven that Ecoya is not one of those companies thus far and it will be interesting to see market reaction this morning at 10.00am when selling of Ecoya shares goes live.

I am betting a southerly move in shareprice based on my negative outlook for the company and a severe correction in the DOW last Friday.

The IPO price was NZ $1 with two warrants per share.

NB: First bids up this morning at 10.15am is one for 83, one for 45c and one for 25c and sellers at $1 - $1.15. No trades have yet passed.


Image




Ecoya Ltd @ Share Investor


Ecoya IPO: A Closer Look
Ecoya Prospectus Requires free registration
Ecoya.co.nz

Discuss ECO @ Share Investor Forum


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c Share Investor 2010

Friday, April 23, 2010

Ecoya IPO: A Closer Look

It is great to have promising new companies joining the NZX and while the IPO of Ecoya Ltd [ECO.NZ] is promising it is pitched at the riskier end of the investing scale.

The valuation of the company also looks overenthusiastic on the part of the current Ecoya Owners.

With pro-forma revenue of around NZ$2.5 million for the year ended 31 March 2010 and projected income of around $3.9 million for 2010 (of itself a massive leap in sales and not comparable with any prior year because of pro-forma figures) the valuation of the IPO is $13 million. This figure is comprised of 10 million ordinary shares at $1 and a facility to offer over-subscriptions of 3 million shares.

The valuation is then inflated by the existence of 33 million further shares held by the current owners who were allocated them through various trades and sales within the Ecoya company, associated directors, family trusts and "The Bakery", an investment vehicle through which Ecoya has been operated and funded pre-IPO and an an entity which will receive substantial annual payments from Ecoya for "management expertise". There was mention in the prospectus that the 33 million shares were issued to The Bakery for "shareholder advances" made to Ecoya over the last 2 years but it looks like the total allocation was made for an investment of around $4 million.

A NZ$46 million valuation for a company with slightly more than $3.9 million in current revenue (and a more than $2 million loss) is cheeky to say the least.

The proceeds from the IPO are going to be used to expand the business, hire more staff, pay off a $1 million loan , $ 1.2 million in IPO costs, and provide nearly $800,000 in interest-free loans for directors to buy shares in Ecoya. This is explained as an "incentive" for these directors - nice work if you can get it.

Ecoya is going to operate in a sector that has many competitors, large and small, start-ups and established players and therefore has little competitive advantage. Its place in the body and bath and home fragrance business is apparently going to achieve the prospectus' aggressive stated sales growth by branding and marketing the company in the high end of this sector.

Whether this is achievable is of course a moot point but this is not a long-term investment for those interested in the IPO. The company was founded and is to be floated with the express purpose of eventually finding a buyer down the track sometime.

The Ecoya model is based on the reasonably successful float and eventual sale of 42 Below to Bacardi several years ago.

This IPO is for investors with a high risk profile, along the lines of the aforementioned 42 Below and the company Burger Fuel Worldwide [BFW.NZ] whose IPO was in June 2007.

I will not be touching it but good luck to you if you do.


Ecoya @ Share Investor


Ecoya IPO lights only one end of the candle
Ecoya Prospectus Requires free registration
Ecoya.co.nz

Discuss ECO @ Share Investor Forum


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Monday, November 9, 2009

Kathmandu IPO: Shares set for discount

According to a Bloomberg story the Kathmandu Holdings [KMD.NZ]IPO looks set to be oversubscribed, indicating that either this is the best IPO since IPOs were invented or that investors have failed to look close enough into the prospectus for the numerous omissions and sleights of hand made by current owners Milford fund shareholders and their associates and decided there is money to be made.

If the Myer float last week is anything to go by Kathmandu is going to begin trading at a deep discount when the shares begin trading on the NZX and ASX in late November.

Myer Holdings Ltd [MYR.ASX] shares were dumped as institutions holding stock soon realised they couldn't stag the issue and began to sell off.

Those patient investors wanting to get Kathmandu shares may get them for closer to their worth if they are willing to wait a while and let Mr Market decide what the company is worth.

KEY DATES

Prospectus date Friday, 23 October 2009

Retail Offer opens Tuesday, 27 October 2009

Retail Offer closes 5:00pm AEDT/NZDT, Friday, 6 November 2009

Institutional Offer and Institutional Bookbuild opens Tuesday, 10 November

Institutional Offer and Institutional Bookbuild closes Wednesday, 11 November 2009

Pricing and allocation announced Thursday, 12 November 2009

Expected commencement of trading on ASX (conditional and deferred settlement basis)
and on NZX (conditional settlement basis) Friday, 13 November 2009

Institutional Offer settlement and last day of conditional trading Tuesday, 17 November 2009

Shares expected to begin trading on a normal basis on NZX Wednesday, 18 November 2009

Expected despatch of holding statements and any refund payments if required Thursday, 19 November 2009

Shares expected to begin trading on a normal settlement basis on ASX Friday, 20 November 2009


Kathmandu @ Share Investor

Kathmandu IPO: Prospectus Analysis
Kathmandu IPO: Jan Cameron lands a blow to IPO
Kathmandu IPO: What is it worth?
Kathmandu IPO: Retail Interest High
Kathmandu IPO: A tough mountain to climb
Kathmandu No.1 but IPO should get the Bullet
Download the detailed Kathmandu Value Cruncher Report - Requires free registration at Share Investor Forum to download
Download Kathmandu IPO Prospectus

Discuss Kathmandu at Share Investor Forum

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Initial Public Offerings, by Richard F. Kleeburg

c Share Investor 2009

Friday, October 30, 2009

Kathmandu IPO: Jan Cameron lands a blow to IPO

I have been covering the Kathmandu IPO over the last few weeks and am working on the prospectus in between changing nappies and trying to get some sleep.

News out today that Jan Cameron, former owner of Kathmandu, will set up her own outdoor clothing chain in New Zealand and Australia is clearly bad news for the IPO:

Now she has revealed she is well advanced in plans to set up an outdoor clothing business of 60 stores - 30 in New Zealand and 30 in Australia - to compete with Kathmandu next year. She said she was earmarking A$27 million for the venture.

She was even dismissive of the Kathmandu model of regular 50 per cent off sales.

"I imagine that if we are offering a similar product at competitive prices, at everyday low prices, around 50 to 60 per cent lower than Kathmandu, I imagine that might be quite attractive," she said. "I really love the product and the industry and I see an opportunity with a different model.'' More at Stuff.co.nz

Cameron is an individual not to be underestimated when it comes to competition. She has made a career out of buying cheap assets and making money from them and her retail prowess when it comes to starting a business is almost unparalleled.

She recently bought up large stakes in Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL.NZ] Postie Plus Group [PPG.NZ] and purchased cheap retail sites in Australia abandoned by The Warehouse Group [WHS.NZ] a few years ago and set up a cut price chain.

Her move back into outdoor retailing will affect the value of the Kathmandu IPO to investors because of the direct competition with her old company.

All the figures contained in the prospectus, on which the value of the company is based, are now largely academic due to the new entrant and prospective investors will now have to reassess their position as they contemplate writing out their IPO cheques.

Disclosure: I own PPL and PPG shares.


Related Share Investor Reading


What is Jan Cameron up to?

Kathmandu @ Share Investor

Kathmandu IPO: What is it worth?
Kathmandu IPO: Retail Interest High
Kathmandu IPO: A tough mountain to climb
Kathmandu No.1 but IPO should get the Bullet
Download the detailed Kathmandu Value Cruncher Report - Requires free registration Share Investor Forum to download
Download Kathmandu IPO Prospectus

Discuss Kathmandu at
Share Investor Forum

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c Share Investor 2009



Monday, October 26, 2009

Kathmandu IPO: What is it Worth?

I have given you my opinion of the Kathmandu IPO on a number of occasions, based on my knowledge of the company from media circles and from the downturn in economy as a whole as it affects retailing.

It is however good to get other views from people with different opinions and ValueCruncher.com has done an analysis based on 3 different scenarios that is very interesting:

Valuecruncher has completed a base case valuation and three separate scenarios for Kathmandu. The first scenario (EBIT 8%) assumes EBIT margins of 8% against 10% in the base case. The second (Growth 5%) assumes 5% growth not the 10% of the base case. The third (CAPEX $40m) assumes CAPEX of NZ$40m compared to NZ$30m in the base case.

This base case and three scenarios give an enterprise value range of NZ$354 million to NZ$460 million (8.9 to 11.5x estimated 2009 EBIT). Valuecruncher gave a 25% weighting to each scenario which gives a NZ$411 million valuation (10.3x estimated 2009 EBIT). This NZ$411 million is our mid-point valuation of Kathmandu. See Valuecruncher for more

Valuecruncher have given this alot of thought but in my opinion their models, while giving 3 possibilities of value for the company, seem too positive given the global economic outlook.

Indications have been that sales at the company have been down, so a prospective investor needs to assume the worst in the current economic climate and that means no growth at all or indeed going backwards.

Debt levels are also largely discounted in the VC model, and as many have commented, debt levels were high over a year ago at more than $NZ180 million and the majority of IPO money is going to the former owners, not to be used within Kathmandu itself.

In addition more capital will be needed to fund the aggressive growth plans that management have.

To be fair Valuecruncher's estimates, as they point out, are based only on publicly known information, excluding the prospectus, so their estimate of value, like mine, is a bit of an educated punt.

We will look at the Kathmandu IPO prospectus - Requires free registration at Share Investor Forum to download


Related Share Investor Reading


What is Jan Cameron up to?

Kathmandu @ Share Investor

Kathmandu IPO: What is it worth?
Kathmandu IPO: Retail Interest High
Kathmandu IPO: A tough mountain to climb
Kathmandu No.1 but IPO should get the Bullet
Download the detailed Kathmandu Value Cruncher Report - Requires free registration Share Investor Forum to download
Download Kathmandu IPO Prospectus

Discuss Kathmandu at
Share Investor Forum

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c Share Investor 2009

Friday, October 23, 2009

Kathmandu IPO: Retail Interest High

I have to say I am very surprised by the level of interest in the Kathmandu IPO.

This comes after confirmation of the IPO where Kathmandu will offer between 166.9 million and 197.4 million shares or 84-99% of the issued capital to investors. The IPO will be valued at between $A1.65 and $A1.90 ($NZ2.01 – $NZ2.32). This will raise a total of between $NZ338.6 and $NZ457.2 million.

Economic circumstances as they are at present would at first thought be indicative that there was no money around.

As I pointed out a few weeks ago Google searches that have reached this blog with "Kathmandu" as the search subject were gathering pace.

I can inform my readers that the level of interest in this subject has at least tippled since then with a record being set for readership for the Share Investor Blog.

As before the interest comes mainly from New Zealand and Australian readers.

This level of interest shows that at retail level investors are possibly ready to take some risk again after being burned in the sharemarket and that there is spare cash around to invest.

Having said that it could just be curiosity for a major recognized brand that will end in disappointment for the company as happened with the Burger Fuel IPO in 2007.

Kathmandu has aggressive expansion plans in Australasia with the possibility of 70 stores being opened over the next 3 years.

It looks like then a large part of the IPO funds will be spent on expansion rather than paying down their very large debt - disappointing in the current economic squeeze and folly considering that same store sales and overall company profit is down.

The IPO opens on October 27 and closes on November 6 and the shares will then begin trading on the NZX on November 18.

Investors interested in buying Kathmandu shares might be better advised to see what happens to the share price post IPO after company results are announced to the market.

Present Kathmndu owners will be hoping for a good Christmas shopping season to bolster the share price because current company fortunes do not make for pleasing reading.


Related Share Investor Reading

What is Jan Cameron up to?

Kathmandu @ Share Investor

Kathmandu IPO: What is it worth?
Kathmandu IPO: Retail Interest High
Kathmandu IPO: A tough mountain to climb
Kathmandu No.1 but IPO should get the Bullet
Download the detailed Kathmandu Value Cruncher Report - Requires free registration Share Investor Forum to download
Download Kathmandu IPO Prospectus

Discuss Kathmandu at Share Investor Forum

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c Share Investor 2009

Thursday, October 8, 2009

Kathmandu No.1 but IPO should get the Bullet

It pains me to say this but the Kathmandu IPO (initial public offering) Juggernaut seems to have gained a massive head of steam since the media took the bait from the present owners of the company, Goldman Sachs JB Were's Hauraki Equity No 2 Fund and Australia's Quadrant Private Equity, who wish to rid themselves of it.

It reminds me of the frenzy of activity by owners of Burger Fuel Worldwide [BFW.NZ] in 2007 as they tried to push their IPO onto anyone that would listen to them and failed as the surface gloss of the brand vanished when people realised the numbers behind the IPO didn't stack up.

Many trees have died since in the writing of a number of Kathmandu IPO stories.

Here is another one.

The biggest Google search at present to hit the Share Investor Blog is for the term "Kathmandu IPO". Most of the traffic is coming from Australia, then New Zealand and then individuals in the United States.

The company makes and sells great outdoor gear but the health of the company is not good at present - lower sales, profit and very high debt levels. This is certainly not a recipe for long term investment success and is bound to end in tears for those blinded by the publicity machine rolled out by brokers and the usual suspects.

My biggest fear is that the owners media assault will manage to extract good money from those only too willing or ignorant enough to own a part of a recognised brand no matter how dubious the quality of the investment.

If you are interested, please think again and if you really do want to get a piece of the action buy Kathmandu shares on market when they have been given a chance to reach their true value based on fundamentals rather than on glossy IPO documents, and media/management spin.

And hey, lets be careful out there!


Related Share Investor Reading


What is Jan Cameron up to?

Kathmandu @ Share Investor

Kathmandu IPO: What is it worth?
Kathmandu IPO: Retail Interest High
Kathmandu IPO: A tough mountain to climb
Kathmandu No.1 but IPO should get the Bullet
Download the detailed Kathmandu Value Cruncher Report - Requires free registration Share Investor Forum to download
Download Kathmandu IPO Prospectus

Discuss Kathmandu at
Share Investor Forum

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c Share Investor 2009

Thursday, July 9, 2009

Kathmandu IPO: A tough Mountain to Climb

Buy a good company for top dollar a few years back, load it up with debt and try to flog it off in an IPO when the market the company operates in is crashing faster than a cheap hooker can get her knickers off, is your next thought where can I sign up?

There has been talk about an IPO for the outdoor retail chain Kathmandu over the last few days and various figures have been thrown around, including one reported in Stuff.co.nz from the Australian Financial Review (where this rumour was first reported) that puts the asking price at between $NZ 500-600 million dollars.

Considering that the company was sold off by founder Jan Cameron and other partners in 2006 for just over $NZ $500 million at the peak of its then earning power, in a retail market that was on fire, the rumoured asking price is way over the top especially when one considers these key points:

1. The dire condition of retail worldwide

2. Debt levels of $187 million VS assets of $331 million to July 2008

3. Profit down from $13.7 million to just under $9 million to July 2008

4. Interest costs for the year to July were $20.9 million, up from $18.2 million the year before.

5. A retail scene that is unlikely to recover soon.

These figures are a full year old and come before the massive decline in retail worldwide so we could assume that the company is now on the bones of its arse profit wise, with even more debt and almost twice the overheads the company had back in 2006 because store numbers have almost doubled.

One big drawback is that the company possibly selling Kathmandu, Goldman Sachs and Quadrant Private Equity, is missing one vital key to the retailer's success, Jan Cameron herself.

Jan got out of her company at the right time, for a great price and has used the proceeds of that sale to buy beaten down retail stocks like Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL.NZ], Postie Plus Group [PPG.NZ] and kick off a number of brand new start up retailers like her Nood Homewares business and Dog's Breakfast.

A good exit by Jan, and a bad possible re-entry by Kathmandu.

To be avoided.

Disclosure: I own PPG, PPL shares


Related Share Investor Reading


What is Jan Cameron up to?

Kathmandu @ Share Investor

Kathmandu IPO: What is it worth?
Kathmandu IPO: Retail Interest High
Kathmandu IPO: A tough mountain to climb
Kathmandu No.1 but IPO should get the Bullet
Download the detailed Kathmandu Value Cruncher Report - Requires free registration Share Investor Forum to download
Download Kathmandu IPO Prospectus

Discuss Kathmandu at
Share Investor Forum

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c Share Investor 2009

Thursday, December 13, 2007

Can the Joneses keep up with the market?

The image “http://www.thejoneses.co.nz/images/theJoneses_Logo.gif” cannot be displayed, because it contains errors.http://media.apn.co.nz/webcontent/image/jpg/the_joneses_group_std.jpg
The Joneses will have to work hard to satisfy stockmarket
investors that theirs is a company worth investing in to
make the IPO a success.



A dearth of IPOs in New Zealand so far this year and what we have had has mostly been unmitigated garbage.

News released yesterday that The Joneses , the cut price real estate agent, is going to list on New Zealand Exchange's alternative market, in mid-February 2008 piqued my interest somewhat.

Now I guess your initial reaction might be hell, I don't trust real estate agents, and you could be forgiven for thinking that but I can see some promise in the idea that the owners of the Joneses', TJRE Holdings and director Chris Taylor have.

Kiwis have no listed exposure to the residential property market and we just love to invest in residential property, at the expense of the sharemarket mind, but what an opportunity to combine the two aspects.

The company is very small and has been operating since last year, with offices in Dunedin, Christchurch, Auckland and Wellington, so the possibility for good growth is there.

Revenues from house sales commissions are estimated at NZ$1.2 billion, with Barfoot and Thompson in Auckland taking up the bulk of that. The revenue is certainly there so it is a case of the Joneses upping their ante to keep up with the Barfoots and LJ Hookers of this world.

In the absence of more details of how the company is structured and how revenue is made, presumably through a cut of the sales commission, one cannot make a serious decision to plunk any shekels down yet.

Time to look at the industry and see how this model might work/fail if you want to invest.

Bring on the prospectus.


Related Share Investor reading

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C Share Investor 2007

Tuesday, August 28, 2007

Burger Fuel Director explains Share Price drop

Image result for burger fuel

Josef Roberts, a Director of Burger Fuel (BFW) has kindly answered a question that many of you out there would like to ask him.

I put this to him in an email today:

Do you have any comments with regards to the dropping share price and your initial valuation of the IPO?


Josef replied

Not really – as you know at present there is nervousness in world markets and general tightening of the economy, but in our case it’s mainly due to a situation of low stock liquidity; so just a few small trades can cause the stock to drop if someone needs cash or wants to accept a lower offer. The actual trades are very low.

I don't share Josef's opinion as to the share price drop. I would agree with him that liquidity would affect the share price somewhat but if the market had an overwhelming positive feeling over Burger Fuel's IPO valuation then the low stock liquidity would have presumably shot the share price well above the NZ$1 IPO price as the reality of the market negativity over Burger Fuel's market cap has seen the share price dip to 65c as of today.




Burger Fuel Worldwide @ Share Investor

Burger Fuel 2010 Full Year Profit Analysis
Burger Fuel 2010 Full Year Profit Preview
Burger Fuel Worldwide: 2009 Half Year profit analysis
Stock of the Week: Burger Fuel Worldwide
Download full company analysis from Thomson First-Call
Burger Fuel doesn't rule out capital raising
Burger Fuel Worldwide: Closer look at Company Accounts

Analysis - Burger Fuel Worldwide: FY profit to 31/03/09
Burger Fuel: Running on Empty
Burger Fuel leaves investors hungry

Burger Fuel management cagey over company progress
Burger Fuel cooks up Dubai deal
NZX share trades with strings attached
Don't buy Burger Fuel, yet
Burger Fuel: Inside info?
Burger Fool IPO: Burger Fool?
Exclusive Interview with Burger Fuel's Josef Roberts
Burger Fuel's Daytime drama
Burger Fuel share price out of gas
Beefing up store numbers
Director explains share price drop
Burger Fuel slims down in value
Burger Fuel and Coke
Marketing Burger Fuel's future
Pumpkin Patch VS Burger Fuel
Burger Fuel results and commentary

Discuss BFW @ Share Investor Forum - Register free





Share Investor 2007
 




Friday, August 3, 2007

Time for Retirement?

Two new Retirement Home Village operators are going to list on the NZX in the next few months. Last week AMP announced the floating of their Retirement unit and today ING have announced that their two village's are on the block for a float to the public.

When these two operators are listed it will bring the number of listed retirement home operators to four.

These IPOs' are part of a wave of activity sweeping the retirement village sector.

CVC Partners said last month that it was looking at selling Guardian Healthcare and Goldman Sachs JBWere's private equity unit is rumoured to be looking to float, sell or raise new capital for its Vision Senior Living group.

The two IPO's also have a connection of sorts. NZ First Capital, who are floating Summerset and Forsyth Barr, who is floating ING's retirement unit, got together to float the abysmal IPO failure, Feltex, a few years ago. Reminders of overvaluations , high debt and creative accounting still resound in the investment community from that fiasco.

The ING groups' village's are by far the smallest by number of units at around 150 with only two properties, while AMPs' Summerset has 11 village's and over 1500 occupants.

ING are asking for $NZ100m while AMP are looking at 300m.

Ryman Healthcare [RYM.NZ], the biggest listed Retirement operator, has a market cap of over 1B and Metlifecare[MET.NZ]around 700m.

Ryman Healthcare has today just reiterated its profit growth for the current year at around 20%. It has been growing at this rate for many years and seems confident that it will grow at this rate for years to come.

At first glance AMP's Summerset looks like a great opportunity to get into this industry, which is growing rapidly as the population gets older. How good the offer really is will only become fully apparent as we get a look at the prospectus in a few weeks time. Until then we can reserve judgement.

On the other hand the ING offer I have some problems with. While ING is a highly reputable company, the track record of some of the participants may give cause for some restraint before plunking down your moola. Colin Reynolds was the head of the pyramid "property development" company Chase Corp which went bust in the 1980s, while Robin Congreve was involved with Fay Richwhite during the Winebox tax fiasco. Beware.

One of their villages is also 20 years old so may need some capital to fix up the paintwork and spruce up the surroundings and decor for the 21st century.

The retirement sector looks set for good growth for some years to come. With good margins and rapidly increasing and also affluent population. The baby boomers, when they do decide to relinquish their hold on the rest of us, will provide a mini-boom in this industry in 10-15 years.

The added bonus of consolidation as the players in this sector get more numerous is an added attraction. Currently the majority of retirement home living is being done by individual owners of villages, that is, operators owning just one village. Good assets are always up for sale.

Of course no investment is without risk and the retirement sector, like every other one, cannot continue to grow unabated the way it has. It will have its ups and downs.

Post prospectus of AMPs' Summerset, if the figures and management look good, I am going to buy as much as I can. If it is the golden egg that I think it is then demand is going to far outstrip supply.

Burger Fuel eat your heart out.

DISCLOSURE I own Ryman Healthcare shares

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c Share Investor 2007


Monday, June 25, 2007

Burger Fuel IPO: Burger Fool?

Image result for burger fuel

There are many things that are still unclear in the manifold press releases regarding the Burger Fuel IPO.

I understood the 15M from the IPO was for expansion of outlets but then the IPO according to some, is about the royalty revenue from franchising the Burger Fuel concept.

The figures given in the press releases(I havent read the prospectus as I cant seem to download it from the BF website) seem to stress the 3M odd income and 250,000 odd loss for the last 9 months or so.

One might imagine then that BF may want to open some company owned stores with the 15M. Lets face it, to fit out, train staff, leases and the like to start one of those stores is well north of half a mil, so you aint going to get more than 20 stores for that 15M IPO moola.

There is also that key comment that initial shareholders will have the right to buy shares at $1 again in the next 18 months or so.

Another factor is that public holders only get 25% of the action, so that 3M odd revenue mentioned is less than a million for the likes of you and me.

The real money for this company will be in growing the franchise model. As we have seen in New Zealand Restaurant Brands(RBD) is the poorer cousin to its big daddy YUM! the franchisor.

Having said that though, even if BF grew revenue to 500M (picked high just to prove a point) the typical royalty rate of around 8% of the gross would give 40M in gross revenue for the Burger Fuel Franchisor. Only 25% of that 40M revenue would be available to distribute to public shareholders. After tax and costs less than 10M in profit is available as profit to minority shareholders.

Much has been made of the "brand strength" and the "loyalty" of Burger Fuels' customers but this is typical of niche players in the fast food industry. Once size and scale are increased, this loyalty often wanes as the company culture cant help but change as it grows.

An important understatement by BF management in announcing this IPO is the amount of competition that they face in this sector. New Zealand has some competition but in markets like Sydney, where they have one store, there are several many similar to BF. One also must remember, having success in a market like Sydney is no gaurantee that it is going to work further afield.

It appears that management want to grow this business quicker than they have been and one must ask why, if the business is that good, why they wouldnt get a bank or private equity crew on board to get a little larger, prove their concept has scalabilty, then come out of the closet for some public funds, for goodness sake they are still holding 75% of the company!!

The lesser disclosure requirements due to a listing on the NZAX ,coupled with the bulk of the company still being management owned, mean that human nature, as it is ,favours the dominant player in this scenario and that means the majority of the power and future gain, if any, will be in the hands of those at the top of the tree. Fine if you have full disclosure but here we dont.

The recent Blackstone IPO in the United States is a similar scenario to this one. Public participants hold a minority of shares and management will continue to run the company just like a private one. Both will only want to know you if they want more capital.

Like any investment, before you consider plunking down your hard earned dollars on this one, take a good long read of the Burger Fuel prospectus, then forget it and read the overwhelming negative comment being made about this IPO. If you are still interested after that and are prepared to take a huge risk, go ahead.

It is possible, if you really want to buy Burger Fuel shares, that the SP will adjust to below the IPO price of $1 once the hype of the IPO is over and the reality of the deal sets into the market.

Don't plunk down more than you can afford to lose.



Burger Fuel Worldwide @ Share Investor

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Burger Fuel 2010 Full Year Profit Analysis
Burger Fuel 2010 Full Year Profit Preview
Burger Fuel Worldwide: 2009 Half Year profit analysis
Stock of the Week: Burger Fuel Worldwide
Download full company analysis from Thomson First-Call
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Analysis - Burger Fuel Worldwide: FY profit to 31/03/09
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Discuss BFW @ Share Investor Forum - Register free
Download BFW Company Reports




c Share Investor 2007




Sunday, June 24, 2007

Burger Fuel Worldwide: Inside Info?

There maybe mostly bad press going around about the internet concerning the BurgerFuel Worldwide [BFW.NZ] IPO but it is a VERY popular search on the search engines "Burger Fuel IPO" comes up for my blog search on a regular basis.

Interest is very high.

A poster calling him/herself "Fuel Employee" has said the following very recently in response to the following post of mine:



Burger Fuel IPO: Dont buy...yet.


The upcoming Burger Fuel IPO poses some interesting questions.

They are asking for 15M for a 25% of the company and value the whole shooting match at 60M. That is steep for a company with only 3M sales and a 250,000 loss.

20 outlets makes the unit sales an average of around $150,000 turnover a unit. Not good at all. You should be looking for at least $500,000 a unit for an outlet like that.

The 15M raised is going to be used on expansion and there is of course the possibility that the majority owners will want continuing cash inputs to keep growing.

I think at $1 a share you could pick up this puppy for less than that once we see continued losses mount.

There is alot of competition in this sector, in NZ and abroad, where BF intend to do business.

Having said that, the long-term future of the company could be worth a punt but I have reservations. I like companies to be making profits from day one and for expansion to be funded from profit.

I would avoid at this stage.

I wont be buying at the IPO, perhaps later.



Fuel Employee wrote

I think you'll find the the 3M sales and the $250,000 odd loss is a reflection of Burger Fuel head office only. The Ponsonby store alone turns over between 1.5 and 2M per annum.

I replied

With the noticable lack of info from the Burger Fuel boys how are we to know what you say is true, im not accusing you of being less than honest though.

Your figures would give BF conservative sales of $40M a much better prospect, if what you say can be validated.

As far as I can tell though ,the companies revenue-and the company at the centre of the IPO- be it food sales or royalties from frachisees the stated income is just over 3M with a loss of 250,000 odd.

Until we we out here in the unwashed uninformed world(it appears you are better informed than us)hear anything different then we can only go by what we know.

Can you enlighten us further?

The poster colours himself/herself as an insider.

A question to pose is. If "Fuel Employee" is a genuine employee then why would he/she risk management ire if caught? Then again if this individual is part of management are they just trying to counter the overwhelming bad press that this Burger Fuel IPO has garnered thus far and would you want to be involved with management that sneaks out info to the public instead of fully divulging it from the outset.

Share Investor smells a rat in the burger kitchen.


Burger Fuel Worldwide @ Share Investor

Burgerfuel: Dubai Marketing Hype!!!

Burger Fuel 2010 Full Year Profit Analysis
Burger Fuel 2010 Full Year Profit Preview
Burger Fuel Worldwide: 2009 Half Year profit analysis
Stock of the Week: Burger Fuel Worldwide
Download full company analysis from Thomson First-Call
Burger Fuel doesn't rule out capital raising
Burger Fuel Worldwide: Closer look at Company Accounts

Analysis - Burger Fuel Worldwide: FY profit to 31/03/09
Burger Fuel: Running on Empty
Burger Fuel leaves investors hungry

Burger Fuel management cagey over company progress
Burger Fuel cooks up Dubai deal
NZX share trades with strings attached
Don't buy Burger Fuel, yet
Burger Fuel: Inside info?
Burger Fool IPO: Burger Fool?
Exclusive Interview with Burger Fuel's Josef Roberts
Burger Fuel's Daytime drama
Burger Fuel share price out of gas
Beefing up store numbers
Director explains share price drop
Burger Fuel slims down in value
Burger Fuel and Coke
Marketing Burger Fuel's future
Pumpkin Patch VS Burger Fuel
Burger Fuel results and commentary

Discuss BFW @ Share Investor Forum - Register free
Download BFW Company Reports




c Share Investor 2007