MarketWatch: The Warehouse Group (UPDATE)

Time to poke a few investors pockets out there. If you are not already aware, The Warehouse Group [WHS.NZX] shares have taken a beating over the last few weeks and were at lows of NZ$4.19, down 32c at close of trading today.

The slide was on thin volume of just over 400,000 shares.

Today's share price slide was due to a profit downgrade and new guidance to the 27 July of a 10% drop in earnings to between NZ$84-88 million.

If you are a regular reader of this blog you will already know that The Warehouse is currently suspended in the throes of a possible buyout, with a bidding war from 2 prospective buyers on the cards, should an Appeal Court decision currently pending fall in favour of selling the company and its assets to a new owner- in this case Foodstuffs or Woolworth's Australia. [WOW:ASX]

To those who don't know, check out this blog and its further reading on the subject and make your mind up yourself.

There is talk of 8 bucks or more per share and there is clear serious short to medium money to be made and in the current market that is not to be passed up.

I know I usually witter on about long term portfolio purchases but I am not adverse to stocking up if there is a quick buck to be made as well.



Disclosure: I own WHS shares


The Warehouse Group @ Share Investor

Long vs Short: The Warehouse Group
Warehouse bidders ready to lay money down
The Warehouse set to cut lose "extra" impediment
The Warehouse sale could hinge on "Extra" decision
The case for The Warehouse without a buyer
Foodstuffs take their foot off the gas
Woolworths seek leave to appeal to Supreme Court
Warehouse appeal decision imminent
Warehouse decision a loser for all
Warehouse Court of appeal decision in Commerce Commission's favour
MARKETWATCH: The Warehouse
The Warehouse takeover saga continues
Why did you buy that stock? [The Warehouse]
History of Warehouse takeover players suggest a long winding road
Court of Appeal delays Warehouse bid
The Warehouse set for turbulent 2008
The Warehouse Court of Appeal case lay in "Extras" hands
WHS Court of Appeal case could be dismissed next week
Commerce Commission impacts on the Warehouse bottom line
The Warehouse in play
Outcomes of Commerce Commission decision
The fight for control begins soon

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Related Links

NZX WHS profit downgrade announcement

The Warehouse Financial Data

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c Share Investor 2008 & 2009

Im buying

“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful” - Warren Buffett


I'm like my wife at the annual Smith and Caughey sales at the moment. Last week I picked up some more Fisher and Paykel Healthcare Ltd [FPH.NZX] and Michael Hill International Ltd [MHI.NZX] and today I added 2000 more shares of Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL.NZX] @ NZ$1.53 and included a new addition to the Share Investor Portfolio by adding 3000 Briscoe Group Ltd [BGR.NZX] shares @ 99c each.

I'm really liking retailers at the moment and am taking my opportunity to buy while others are selling. The downturn isn't going to last forever and those daring to be contrary now will be rewarded well in the future.

I vowed I wouldn't add any extra funds to the portfolio but it is only a small purchase and I am going to pay it back from the $10000.00 in dividends coming around September.

I would however like to get my hands on Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd [HLG.NZX], another good retailer which is now paying an excellent gross dividend of around 18% based on current profit figures and an historically very low share price.

Now clearly stocks could get cheaper before they recover, but I bought today at a price that I am happy with and what I consider will add value long term to my investment stock portfolio.

The Share Investor Portfolio is still well in positive territory when imputation credits and dividends are factored in but down around 4% when the tax credits are excluded.


Related Share Investor Reading

Why did you buy that stock?[Pumpkin Patch Ltd]
Why did you buy that stock? [Fisher & Paykel Healthcare]
Why did you buy that stock? [Michael Hill International]


Share Investor's Annual Stock Picks

Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks: Looking Back
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c Share Investor 2008

Kevin's Blog

I like the the photo of Kevin Podmore on his blog but am confused as to why there is no mention that the company was going to collapse less than one month after this relatively upbeat commentary.

The blog is 2 months old.

Kevin and his directors would have known the company was facing difficulties but just like other finance companies that have collapsed, St Laurence continued to borrow money from investors.

But it’s also good to see that even in the current environment where lending hasn’t prospered investors have benefited overall from the diversified business model that St Laurence has. Losses from the lending business have been more than offset in other areas and as a consequence our profit is just $2.1 million less than last year. We think its not a bad result.

Investors have benefited overall from diversification?

Kevin, come on! you knew this wasn't truthful when you wrote it didn't you?

What allowed to to risk investors money by continuing to borrow their money while all along knowing they were not going to get it back?

Was it greed, embarrassment, shame, what?

Be honest Kevin Podmore, why didnt you give investors in St Laurence fair warning months ago that their money was at risk?

That warning should have been on your blog somewhere.

I couldn't find it.

c Share Investor 2008

NZ Herald Feature:

Finance companies in freefall

22 May

Posted by Kevin at 10:10 am

We have just released our year end results and investors will have noticed a few changes this year. As well as increased underlying earnings, the main difference is the increase in loan provisioning.

In simple terms, a loan provision is an expense set aside as an allowance for doubtful loans in cases where the amount owed may not be fully collectable and/or delayed. Under the new NZ IFRS accounting standards, ‘general’ provisioning (of a set percentage of the loan book) has now been replaced with ‘specific’ provisioning against individual loans that are impaired.

IFRS requires a discounted cash flow (DCF) methodology for provisioning, a more accurate measure I believe which requires companies to assess the level and timing of future payments (both principal and interest) and discount those payments into today’s dollars.

I’d like to emphasise though that provisioning is not a write-off of the loan; it is an allowance against a company’s future ability to collect that loan in its entirety. Provisioning impacts on the current year’s profit rather than delaying the impact to future years’ earnings, but it also means that the closer the loan gets to its collection date, there is a recovery of the discounted value of that money.

Higher levels of provisioning shouldn’t be a surprise given the tighter market conditions - the banks have included billions of dollars of provisions in their recently announced results. As turmoil in global markets and the slowing of the US economy plays out, and the New Zealand economy slows due to tighter monetary policy and credit conditions, we are seeing a change in the credit cycle and I think our approach with regards to provisioning will stand us in good stead going forward.

But it’s also good to see that even in the current environment where lending hasn’t prospered investors have benefited overall from the diversified business model that St Laurence has. Losses from the lending business have been more than offset in other areas and as a consequence our profit is just $2.1 million less than last year. We think its not a bad result.

Check out more of Kevin's Blog here

Helen Clark kicks democracy below the belt

By Rod Emmerson

Helen "Mugabe" Clark and her stance to deny a referendum during the 2008 Election to the nearly 10% of Kiwis who voted in a petition to overturn the anti smacking bill is yet another full smack in the face with a closed fist, for democracy in New Zealand.

We shouldn't be surprised. I signaled her current stance last week when the petition came back to the house, but it is just another crime against democracy that Clark and her government have been infamous for over the last 9 years.

Labour and all who sail in her, and vote for her hate freedom with a passion and have done everything they could to stifle it.

Related Political Animal Reading

Labour's State Control out of control
Electoral Finance Bill Vote
NZ loses democratic freedom

Sacha Cobern's letter to NZ Herald Editor
Electoral Finance Bill Protest 2007

If it isn't the anti democratic Electoral Finance Act, where individuals and groups fear legal reprisals for speaking out against the government in election year, it is Clark and Winston Peters threatening the media with "correction" when they don't like what they are saying.

Removing legal freedoms by removing the Privy Council without indication or consultation before an election has constrained full and fair legal process in New Zealand.

The freedom to eat, smoke, say and do as individuals have a right to has been diluted to such an extent that most individuals and families live in fear of some government agency, or in the case of the EFA or anti smacking law, the police, knocking on the door to take citizens away for questioning.

While that sort of political correctness has reined supreme, the freedom for innocent Kiwi citizens to roam their neighbourhood safely has been suppressed because of rampant welfare bred violence and lack of consequences from the Justice Department and slack politically correct policing directed from the top floor of the Beehive.

Government's exist not to constrain freedom but to champion it. It is their job to make sure we all live our lives, as much as possible, without fear of consequences if we dare to voice an opinion or have a view that differs from our fellow citizens. Even this blog has been threaten by mentally deranged Labour voters plotting to illegally use photo-shopped pictures of my good self.

In Helen Clark and her government we have an administration clearly willing to remove our democratic freedoms in the vein hope they can hold on to power long enough to continue to remove the last vestiges of democracy that we currently cling on a steep cliff face to.

To most enlightened individuals, except Helen Clark herself, the irony of her speech yesterday in Parliament about one Robert Mugabe from Zimbabwe and his current murderous rampage-his first one in the early 1980s supported by Clark- will not be lost.

In Mr Mugabe we have a tyrant who clings to power by removing democratic freedoms by bad law,threats,violence,torture and murder. In Ms Clark we have a dictator who clings to power by removing democratic freedoms with bad law and threats.

How long will it be before the relatively thick line between the two gets thinner?

I fear for the future of our democracy and the safety of its people if Labour are voted back in in 2008.

c Political Animal 2008