Saturday, July 18, 2009

Long VS Short: Ryman Healthcare Ltd





In this ninth installment of the Long vs Short series I am once again going to take look at the chart comparisons for a stock from the Share Investor Portfolio and compare the 10 year return (above chart) to the turmoil of the last year with a 1 year return chart 


In this series I want to show the merits of investing, using charts, for the long-term vs short term gains or losses. I will use the longest available data to me for the long-term view (10 years )and will make a comparison against the NZX50.

In this installment of Long vs Short I will look at Ryman Healthcare [RYM.NZ].

I currently hold 5000 Ryman Healthcare shares in the Share Investor Portfolio which I have owned since November 2006. (see small chart below for detail)

The company has been a very good performer with great returns and is still doing well under current tough economic conditions.

In my 2.5 years of owning this share my return has been a loss of around 17.5%. This includes dividends and tax credits.

If I had bought this share just a year ago my return would have been a 35% loss.

Now for the real point of this comparison lets look at the return for Ryman Healthcare shareholders who have held the stock for 10 years. 

From a high of a 450% return at the end of 2007 the 10 year return as of writing is still around 180%. All those dividends plus tax credits and time has given the long termers another win.



Ryman Healthcare @ Share Investor

Why Did you buy that Stock? [Ryman Healthcare]

Time for retirement?

Discuss this Stock @ Share Investor Forum


Long vs Short Series

Michael Hill International

Auckland International Airport
Freightways Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Mainfreight Ltd
The Warehouse Group
Sky City Entertainment




c Share Investor 2009





Thursday, July 16, 2009

Stock of the Week: Xero Ltd



For this week's Stock of the Week I want to throw caution to the wind and pick a stock in an industry I know nothing at all about except that it has an over propensity of nerds working in it and some of them are billionaires.

The company is Xero Ltd [XRO.NZ] and the industry that it competes in is computer software, in Xero's case online business accounting software, you can find out more about Xero at Kelvin Hartnell's excellent blog, he is a big fan and a happy shareholder.

Warren Buffett says he doesn't invest in companies and industries he doesn't understand and the same goes for me, but some of you out there reading this just might know what this company is about and can see the potential it might have in the future.

Xero has yet to make money, but is making inroads into its sector of competence, big boys like Quicken and MYOB are starting to notice their presence but the company has still yet to make some green stuff. It doesn't look likely it will soon either.

Like I said though, the potential is there to make some big money, if they really take off or lose the lot if the company ends in tears. This is a high risk investment, with any payoff being long-term.

It has some big backers in New Zealand, like Sam Morgan of TradeMe fame but its share price has taken a bit of an upwards trajectory over the last 4 months going from around 65c to its present $1.38 at close of market yesterday, so it makes the company a whole lot more unattractive at these prices.

If you know this industry though, this stock could be for you on weakness.

Good luck!


Stock of the Week Series

Auckland International Airport
Sky City Entertainment Group
Burger Fuel Worldwide
Michael Hill International
Contact Energy Ltd
The Warehouse Group
Fisher & Paykel Appliances


Xero @ Share Investor

Share Investor Interview: Xero's Rod Drury

FY 2010 Profit Result
Xero Ltd: Download full Company Analysis
Rod Drury ready for the long-haul with Xero
Rod Drury on Xero and Growing Business
Xero set for surprise to the Market?
Love Xero?
Share Investor's 2010 Stock Picks
Stock of the Week: Xero Ltd

Discuss Xero @ Share Investor Forum




c Share Investor 2009





Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Alan Bollard Speaks, but who is listening?

He was wrong about hiking interest rates and he took far too long to drop them again. Now he needs to start raising interest rates but still no sign of that. Last year Alan Bollard, Reserve Bank Governor, also said the recession was over.

How can we then take seriously Bollard's claim made today that:

"New Zealand is likely to begin recovering from the global financial crisis ahead of the pack".

NZ Herald 14/07/09

I am not sure what he is pointing as to evidence of this rather bold claim but his track record is littered with inaccuracies and bumbling wrong moves with a penchant to be somewhat Schizoid.

Is this supposed to inspire confidence for the average kiwi?

The stockmarket didn't believe a word of his pronouncement, rising only a handful of points when the large DOW movement up overnight indicated there should have been a good rise on the NZX today.

More astounding and confusing remarks today from the Gov given his decree last year that the recession was over:

"We appear to have avoided a repeat of the Great Depression. After the plummet in activity through to early 2009, production seems to be stabilising (Europe), to have stabilised (USA) or even turned around (some Asian economies)." NZ Herald - 14/7/09

But didn't he say late last year that the recession was over while we were at the height of the US banking collapse and hasn't the recession continued until the present day?

Well, yes he did and it has:

However, Bollard indicated at a press conference today that he thought the recession in this country was already over.

"If you want to be technical about it we believe the recession has ended and we have positive but very low growth for the next four quarters. It's only towards the second half of next year that one can be sure that we're getting solid growth," he said. "Those numbers in New Zealand can jump around and historically they tend to improve rather than getting worse.

Bollard said the recession was actually quite shallow and a lot shallower than in the past.
Stuff.co.nz - 4/12/08

What the...?!

So if you cant decide from day to day how things were, are, or are going to be Mr Bollard then how are we expected to decide? It kinda makes you wonder of the relevancy of a Reserve Bank Governor in the first place.

Why not let the market decide what interest rates it wants, it would at least be more accurate and reflect market conditions far more competently than a soothsayer.

Best leave the fortune telling for the Woman's Day.


Related Share Investor Reading


Alan Bollard's indecision over OCR a worry to NZ INC
Bollard sits on his hands
Mr Conservative

Discuss this topic @ Share Investor Forum



Buy Toughen Up: What I've Learned About Surviving Tough Times

Toughen Up: What I've Learned About Surviving Tough Times

Toughen Up - Fishpond.co.nz



c Share Investor 2009

Fletcher Building's Commercial arm keeps their head above the tunnel

Fletcher Building Ltd [FBU.NZ] getting a large part of the NZ$406 million contract to build the road tunnel under Victoria Park in Auckland is not only evidence of their dominance in contracting in this part of the world, it is an indication of its underlying strength in the recession hit market.

That underlying strength lay in the ability of the company to fall back on its commercial/infrastructural arm while its residential building group has been hit by the big slowdown in the residential building sector.

Not only does this Auckland roading project provide revenue from actually building the tunnel but it also provides revenue for Fletcher's add-on divisions. Concrete, steel, aggregates and more can be provided from FBU's various businesses.

There is more of this infrastructure building to come. Stadiums around the country are being built or refurbished in time for the 2011 World Cup and Fletchers will probably have a hand in somewhere building most of them.

The other road tunnel to be built, in the Waterview part of Auckland, will also no doubt get FBU input somewhere.

The company is one of a few large enough the ability and infrastructure themselves to be able to build these sorts of large projects and Fletcher stand above most when it comes to the tender process.

They are big, have the expertise, knowledge and relationships and that will help them through the next few recession hit years.

Shareholders just need to be patient.

Disc: I own a small FBU holding in the Share Investor Portfolio

Fletcher Building @ Share Investor

Sweetheart deal for Fletcher Building's Friends
Fletcher House built on hard times
Fletcher Building down tools in the short term
Why did you buy that stock? [Fletcher Building Ltd]
A solid foundation for the future
Fletcher Building raises profit through canny management
Fletcher's got game

Discuss this stock @ Share Investor Forum

Related Amazon Reading

Project Management in Construction (McGraw-Hill Professional Engineering)

Project Management in Construction (McGraw-Hill Professional Engineering) by Sidney M. Levy
Buy new: $71.96 / Used from: $60.71
Usually ships in 24 hours

c Share Investor 2009

Monday, July 13, 2009

ING/ANZ Deadline not necessarily the end

The deadline looms at the end of business today for those investors embroiled in the ING/ANZ fraud where some investors were duped into buying into highly risky funds after being told by their teller at ANZ, their investment advisers or ING directly that they were getting low risk investments, to accept on offer from ING/ANZ of 60c in the dollar in return for their silence.

Methinks that most investors would have signed up for this as many are elderly and/or ignorant of other alternatives. Once these people have accepted ING/ANZ's measly offer they could be signing away their rights to take action against those that are culpable, for ANZ/ING has required them to sign a waiver against action of any kind, or even speaking about it, if they accept their offer.

Having said that, given that individuals are signing under a form of duress then any legal rights they may have waived by signing could be argued against in a court by a multi-party action.

I argued other alternatives a month or so back but acceptance of the offer that closes at 5.00pm today could be a good bet given that the Fair Trading Act and Consumer Guarantees Act are strong laws that can be used to trump any flimsy legal waivers signed under force or some form of duress, as is the case here.

Since my last column on this subject I have become aware of two other distant friends who have respectively lost NZ$ 800,000.00 and $2 million dollars in this scam.


Timetable for ING/ANZ investors

* Investors have until Monday, July 13, 5.00pm to decide on ING's proposal.

* Investors who went through the ANZ Bank have until July 31 to make a formal complaint.

* Investors who accept the offer should gain access to their money by August 28.

* Those who don't accept the offer will continue to own units in the funds.

* Investigations by the Commerce Commission are ongoing but won't be completed by the decision deadline.

* Complaints have also been made to the Securities Commission asking it to delay the offer until the Commerce Commission has ruled but the commission said yesterday it had no ability to stop the offer going ahead because the offer is not misleading or deceptive.

Timetable from NZ Herald


ING/ANZ scam @ Share Investor

Discuss this Topic @ Share Investor Forum


Related Links

Citizens Advice Bureau
Disputes Tribunal
Fair Trading Act


Related Fishpond Reading

After The Panic

$32.99 from Fishpond - 13% off.


c Share Investor 2009


Folic Acid in Bread a bad rap for National Government

If its not Cadbury taking stuff out of my food, its Government morons putting stuff in my food that annoys me. I loathe my food and my health being buggered with.

The Nazi style way the food additive, folic acid was introduced by the previous Labour Government by the former Food Safety Minister Annette King was no surprise because Mein Kampf seemed to be some sort of text book that that Government loosely followed in terms of execution of Labour Party policy but for the present National Government to do nothing to stop the introduction in September of this possible dangerous additive being added to our daily bread is nothing short of hypocritical.

Hypocritical because this mass medication of our food supply was part of the Labour Nanny State that we all got thoroughly sick of that encompassed how long we showered, what we ate, drank, smoked, said, who to like and even debates over the definition of rape in normal relationships, a whole host of other socialist/Nazi style interference and who knows what else had we had the misfortune of another Labour regime.

Do National remember why they were elected?

We wanted this bloody Nanny State crap to come to an end!

National's Kate Wilkinson, Minister of Food Safety, in the face of evidence that folic acid in bread could be a cancer danger, says that she doesn't want the additive but she can do little about it because of a food standards agreement with Australia that we just cant break.

Even if you agreed that folic acid should be added to all our bread so we had no personal freedom to eat this crap, a  pregnant woman would have to eat 11 slices of this bread to ameliorate any folate deficiency in her diet and lessen the possibility that her baby would get spina bifida.

5 kids get this disease every year, not a good reason to put the rest of the population in danger by using a staple food to do so. Best a prospective mother takes a folate supplement if worried, better for her and the rest of us and we will have the freedom of choice to eat what we want.

The additive will add to the cost of bread to consumers and waste millions of plastic bags that have to be re-printed with this muck added to the ingredients list.

Grow some balls Kate and stop the folate, you are in Government now and yes you can do it.

Related Amazon Reading

Mein Kampf Official Nazi Translation
Mein Kampf Official Nazi Translation by Adolf Hitler
Buy new: $14.36 / Used from: $19.45
Usually ships in 24 hours

c Political Animal 2009

Bookmark and Share

Still Watching Contact Energy

Contact Energy Ltd [CEN.NZ] is a stock I used to own just before 9-11, in fact I moronically dumped it on that day due to my inexperience in the stockmarket at the time.

I bought in at NZ$3.10 at the IPO and picked more up at $2.66. I had 5000 at one stage for the princely sum of around $12000.00 bucks (you can smell the regret in this reminisce cant you?)

Meanwhile back in the present I think you can still get a relative bargain by buying this company. The share price has dropped around 7% since I last wrote about the company on June 8.

Contact had a 30% drop in half year profit to 31 December 2008, added NZ$550 million in debt through a public bond issue and expects its full year profit for the year ended 30 June 2009 to be down around 30% as well.

This doesn't make good reading but Contact has performed better than most during this recession. Contact's lower profit was to do with higher water levels in dams bringing down their wholesale energy prices. It wasn't recession related at all apart from the shutdown of some of Comalco, a large power user and profit is unlikely to get much worse than this.

That is one reason why I continue to watch this stock closely, its recession proof nature.

One other good reason to buy, if you were looking at this stock over the last year, is that its stock price is near its 52 week low of $5.47, closing at $5.63 last Friday and you cant get a better reason than that.

The company is a good long term bet and even a good short to medium term money maker for those of you with a short attention span. I say this because the share price seems to get good support at current price levels and the company always has the sword of takeover from its Aussie majority owner parent Origin Energy Ltd [ORG.AU] hanging over it.

Keep it on your watchlist too if you have been thinking of adding it to your portfolio.

I am getting my buy finger ready.

Contact @ Share Investor Blog

Stock of the Week: Contact Energy
MarketWatch: Contact Energy - June 2009
MarketWatch: Contact Energy - Jan 2009
Contact Energy looks bright during dark times
Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks
Follow the Monopoly Board

Discuss this stock at Share Investor Forum

Related Amazon Reading

Politicized Economies: Monarchy, Monopoly, and Mercantilism (Texas a & M University Economics Series)
Politicized Economies: Monarchy, Monopoly, and Mercantilism (Texas a & M University Economics Series) by Robert B. Ekelund
Buy new: $32.54 / Used from: $57.67
Usually ships in 24 hours


c Share Investor 2009


Sunday, July 12, 2009

Morgan Dunne-Powell ready for Kristin's 60 Minutes media blitz

I had a couple of threatening emails (I will get my lawyer on to you sort of thing) from Kristin Dunne-Powell's husband, Morgan Powell the other day about a couple of opinion pieces 1 2 that I wrote a few months back and I wasn't going to write about them or post them until I caught an advert on TV3 today on an upcoming 60 Minutes interview to be aired Monday 13 July at 7.30pm, where she apparently "tells the real story" or whatever that means, about what went on with her and Tony Veitch.

Morgan himself alluded in his first email to wanting to spare Veitch any further mental anguish

"The charges were not dropped my wife agreed to a plea bargain to end what had become senseless and to spare Mr Veitch any further mental deterioration".  

He alluded to protecting Veitch again in his second email to me.

"My wife has always been very concerned and mindful of Mr Veitch's mental health, and I have always been very mindful of hers."

"As for Veitch's attempts (at suicide) that is not a new pattern for him, and the reason my wife stayed with him all along.  He needs help, and we hope he gets it".  

So I get it, Morgan didn't want to drag everyone, especially Veitch, through the mud again and I accepted that, so I wasn't going to write anything further.

The 60 Minutes interview tomorrow changes everything.
If he and his wife cared about anyone, including his wife, they wouldn't now be dragging it all through the media once again.

They have done it before and just about drove a man to suicide and now it appears they are going to have another go at him.

I didn't reply to Morgan's second email but if I did I would have said just put it behind you mate and get on with life and let Veitch try and get on with his.

Apparently they just won't let it go.






Bookmark and Share




Sky City's Current Cinema "Boom" a Horror Story in Disguise

An interview in Granny NZ Herald yesterday with Jane Hastings, general manager of Sky City Entertainment's [SKC.NZ] cinema division prompted me to have another go at this part of the Sky City asset portfolio.

Long term readers of this blog (two years is a long time in the blog world) and the struggling Share Trader chat site will know that I wouldn't touch a movie chain business with a barge pole the length of a CinemaScope screen.

The Herald and its interviewee seem particularly bullish on the movie business at present. Strong attendances, a growing market share for Sky City Cinemas and good product coming up, like the latest Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (2009) movie all look positive.

Add to this the very large capital expenditures that this division has made expanding the business over the last 5 years have been ameliorated of late because of oversupply and you might think you have a business that is a blockbuster ready to print money.

Balance the good news with this though.

Although cinemas are a good cash business, especially during these cash strapped hard economic times, extra revenue doesn't necessarily make for extra profit. Costs have risen along with higher attendance and there will always be more expense to improve technology and modernise facilities.

Recessions like the ones we are currently experiencing are boom times for the entertainment business and cinemas are no exception but investors in Sky City should be aware that the spike in fortunes for their cinema business are fleeting and in the normal cycles of business, the downs are far more frequent than the ups and more often than not the down times are when many cinema operators put up the going out of business sign.

Sustained acceptable returns for the cinema business are simply not the way this sector functions and history is littered with the carcasses of individuals and corporations who have sunk money into cinema that have gone bankrupt or no longer exist.

Best Sky City management use shareholders capital to repay debt as they did earlier last week.

Sky City Cinemas is no different from the rest and I must reiterate dear reader, for the sake of the shareholder, this part of the group's business must be given a Dirty Harry bullet before it drags the rest of the company down with it.

Disclosure I own SKC shares


Visit Sky City Cinemas

Sky City Entertainment Group @ Share Investor

Stock of the Week: Sky City Entertainment Group
Sky City share offer confusing and unfair for smaller shareholders
Sky City CEO doubles down
Sky City Entertainment 2009 Interim Profit Review
Sky City Entertainment 2009 Interim Result Preamble
2008 Sky City profit analysis
Sky City Entertainment 2008 Full Year profit results , NZX release, 2008 full year presentation, result briefing webcast, financial statements
Sky City 2008 profit preamble
Sky City outlines a clear future plan
As recession bites Sky City bites back
Sky City Assets: Buy, sell and hold
Why did you buy that stock? [Sky City Entertainment]
Sky City Share Volumes set tongues wagging
Sky City half year exceptional on cost cutting
NZX Press release: Sky City profit to HY end Dec 2007
Sky City Cinemas no Blockbuster
Sky City Entertainment share price drop
New Broom set to sweep
Sky City Management: Blind, deaf and numb
Sky City sale could be off
Opposition to takeover
Premium for control
Sky City receives takeover bid
Sky City Casino Full Year Profit to June 30 2007
Setting the record straight
Sky City CEO resigns
Sky City Casino: Under performing
Sky City Casino 2007 HY Profit(analysis)
Sky City Casino 2007 HY Profit

Discuss this stock @ Share Investor Forum

Related Amazon Reading

Coming Attractions?: Hollywood, High Tech, and the Future of Entertainment (Stanford Business Books)
Coming Attractions?: Hollywood, High Tech, and the Future of Entertainment (Stanford Business Books) by Philip Meza
Buy new: $27.95 / Used from: $4.74
Usually ships in 24 hours


c Share Investor 2009

Saturday, July 11, 2009

POLITICAL POLL: Roy Morgan Poll, 10 July 2009

In a remarkable feat the National Party have managed to increase their big lead over the Labour Party to 54% vs Labour dropping to 31.5%.

I say remarkable as it flies in the face of John Key's continuation of Labour social policies of state intervention and meddling in citizen's lives that has marked Labours last 9 years as a complete failure.

From Roy Morgan 

In early July support for John Key’s Coalition Government is 58.5% (up 1%) comprising National Party 54% (up 2%), Maori Party 3% (up 0.5%), ACT NZ 1% (down 1.5%), and United Future 0.5% (unchanged) according to the Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll conducted June 22 — July 5, 2009.

Support for Opposition parties is 41.5% (down 1%); Labour Party 31.5% (down 1.5%), Greens 8% (up 0.5%), NZ First 1% (unchanged), Progressive Party 0.5% (unchanged) and Others 0.5% (unchanged.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is at 140 (down 10.5 points) with 63% (down 6%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 23% (up 4.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction.’

During the same period, the Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating is up 2.7 points to 106.1.

 

Gary Morgan says:

“In mid June the ruling National Party-led Coalition (58.5%, up 1%) has increased its strong lead over the Opposition Parties (41.5%, down 1%) the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows.

“Despite increased concern about the direction the country is heading and Opposition Leader Phil Goff’s continued questioning of what the National Party Government has done to alleviate the economic problems facing the country — these attacks do not yet appear to be making an impact on support for the Government.

“NZ First Leader Winston Peters has returned to the political stage in recent weeks attacking the Government for considering the repeal of the Foreshore & Seabed Act — which concerns title to New Zealand’s foreshore and beaches. This Morgan Poll shows that Peters is yet to translate his renewed prominence with an increase in support for NZ First (1%, unchanged).”

See Roy Morgan for more detail.


Key is running the economy better than it has been in a generation but the social interference and PC nonsense is going to kick them in the goolies sometime in the future.

I would say this was a lucky poll more than anything else and support will taper as Key's Socialist agenda continues to roll out.

c Political Animal 2009


Bookmark and Share

Whittaker's VS Cadbury TV advert



Further to some commentary about my favourite food on my Share Investor Blog and earlier on here, comes a fantastic TV Ad from Whittakers that takes the piss out of Cadbury chocolate.


There have been supposed "taste tests" between the two products, with Cadbury winning most but sales figures for both companies are what really counts and Whittaker's sales are up and Cadbury's are down(where they deserve to be because their chocolate now tastes like sugar with cocoa power in it.)

There have been complaints laid about the ad (Cadbury being one of them) so cop a look before the purple lot get it removed.

It is a classic and sure beats the twitching eyebrows that Cadbury bring to the table.

Related Amazon Reading

International Advertising: Realities and Myths
Buy new: $67.95 / Used from: $2.65
Usually ships in 24 hours

c Political Animal 2009

Bookmark and Share

Friday, July 10, 2009

Share Investor Portfolio: 10 July 2009

The Share Investor Portfolio now contains 17 stocks listed on the NZSX. The bulk of the portfolio started back in 2002 and I have added to the bulk of it by using dividends and some cash.

Since May 22 approx NZ $7000 was added due to 3 capital raisings.
(1 2 3) Fletcher Building Ltd [FBU.NZ] has added 114 shares | Freightways Ltd [FRE.NZ] 431 shares | Sky City Entertainment Group [SKC.NZ] 1915 shares.

Since the June 15 update a further $7000 was added with the addition of more shares.

Added 7000 Michael Hill International [MHI.NZ] shares and 2000 Auckland International Airport [AIA.NZ] shares.


The Share Investor Portfolio as at 10 July 2009
  • Auckland International Airport [AIA] 5000
  • ASB Capital NO. 2 Ltd [ASBPB] 10000
  • Briscoe Group Ltd [BGR] 3000
  • Fletcher Building Ltd [FBU] 1114
  • Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corp Ltd [FPH] 5000
  • Freightways Ltd [FRE] 8631
  • Goodman Fielder Ltd [GFF] 2000
  • Halleinstein Glasson Ltd [HLG] 1000
  • Kiwi Income Property Trust [KIP] 1000
  • Mainfreight Ltd [MFT] 3125
  • Michael Hill International Ltd [MHI] 10000
  • Postie Plus Ltd [PPG] 2535
  • Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL] 5000
  • Ryman Healthcare Ltd [RYM] 5000
  • Sky City Entertainment [SKC] 36915
  • Steel & Tube Holdings Ltd [STU] 400
  • The Warehouse Group Ltd [WHS] 8000
Previous Portfolio Updates

Share Investor Portfolio: June 15 2009
Share Investor Portfolio: May 22 2009

Related Share Investor Reading: Why did you buy that stock?

Why did you buy that stock? [Fletcher Building Ltd]
Why did you buy that stock? [Freightways Ltd]
Why did you buy that stock? [Kiwi Income Property Trust]
Why did you buy that stock? [Hallenstein Glasson]
Why did you buy that stock? [Briscoe Group]
Why did you buy that stock? [Fisher & Paykel Healthcare]
Why did you buy that stock? [Pumpkin Patch Ltd]
Why did you buy that stock? [Ryman Healthcare]
Why did you buy that stock? [Michael Hill International]
Why did you buy that stock? [Mainfreight Ltd]
Why did you buy that stock? [The Warehouse Group]
Why did you buy that stock? [Goodman Fielder]
Why did you buy that stock? [Auckland Airport]
Why did you buy that stock? [Sky City Entertainment]


Discuss this topic @ Share Investor Forum

Related Amazon Reading

The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy
The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy by Robert G. Hagstrom
Buy new: $13.57 / Used from: $1.57
Usually ships in 24 hours


c Share Investor 2002-2009

Thursday, July 9, 2009

Kathmandu IPO: A tough Mountain to Climb

Buy a good company for top dollar a few years back, load it up with debt and try to flog it off in an IPO when the market the company operates in is crashing faster than a cheap hooker can get her knickers off, is your next thought where can I sign up?

There has been talk about an IPO for the outdoor retail chain Kathmandu over the last few days and various figures have been thrown around, including one reported in Stuff.co.nz from the Australian Financial Review (where this rumour was first reported) that puts the asking price at between $NZ 500-600 million dollars.

Considering that the company was sold off by founder Jan Cameron and other partners in 2006 for just over $NZ $500 million at the peak of its then earning power, in a retail market that was on fire, the rumoured asking price is way over the top especially when one considers these key points:

1. The dire condition of retail worldwide

2. Debt levels of $187 million VS assets of $331 million to July 2008

3. Profit down from $13.7 million to just under $9 million to July 2008

4. Interest costs for the year to July were $20.9 million, up from $18.2 million the year before.

5. A retail scene that is unlikely to recover soon.

These figures are a full year old and come before the massive decline in retail worldwide so we could assume that the company is now on the bones of its arse profit wise, with even more debt and almost twice the overheads the company had back in 2006 because store numbers have almost doubled.

One big drawback is that the company possibly selling Kathmandu, Goldman Sachs and Quadrant Private Equity, is missing one vital key to the retailer's success, Jan Cameron herself.

Jan got out of her company at the right time, for a great price and has used the proceeds of that sale to buy beaten down retail stocks like Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL.NZ], Postie Plus Group [PPG.NZ] and kick off a number of brand new start up retailers like her Nood Homewares business and Dog's Breakfast.

A good exit by Jan, and a bad possible re-entry by Kathmandu.

To be avoided.

Disclosure: I own PPG, PPL shares


Related Share Investor Reading


What is Jan Cameron up to?

Kathmandu @ Share Investor

Kathmandu IPO: What is it worth?
Kathmandu IPO: Retail Interest High
Kathmandu IPO: A tough mountain to climb
Kathmandu No.1 but IPO should get the Bullet
Download the detailed Kathmandu Value Cruncher Report - Requires free registration Share Investor Forum to download
Download Kathmandu IPO Prospectus

Discuss Kathmandu at
Share Investor Forum

Related Amazon Reading

Initial Public Offerings
Initial Public Offerings by Richard F. Kleeburg
Buy new: $26.70 / Used from: $27.70
Usually ships in 24 hours


c Share Investor 2009

Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Bryce the Banker: The Final Insult

Every good story deserves at least a trilogy, 1 2 3 and others limp on for a forth far less satisfying installment that is disappointing when compared to the original blockbuster.

This has been the case with Bryce the banker, my own personal banker at ASB Bank in Albany.

This time I called Bruce about a small loan of about $25,000.00 that I wanted to pay off early.

Easy right?

Well no it wasn't.

The upshot is that I will be charged around 500 bucks for the privilege of paying off my loan 2.5 years early.

So what is my beef this time you ask?

Well, when re-negotiating this loan almost 3 years ago I asked some specific questions and got some specific answers from those questions.

My questions were:

1. will I be able to pay off lump sums easily without incurring penalties?

2. can I pay the loan off early without getting slam-dunked with a fee?

Not a problem was the answer to both these questions.

Well apparently it is a problem now and Bryce quite chirpily pointed out that the fees and charges were in my loan document that I signed, and he is right, they are.

But Bryce I asked the pertinent questions, was answered in the affirmative, so trusted the personal banker at the time (not Bryce) that I was getting the deal I thought I was.

But Chief you should have read the fine print in the contract said Bryce.

I know, but your representative at the time told me...you get the fast revolving point and I have had all my business with you for nearly 20 years... wheres the LOVE where is the LOYALTY Bryce!

But the contract Chief, the contract ! - say it in your head with the voice of a very small Mexican with a lisp wearing a white suit and smoking a big cigar.

My point is, regardless of the contract, I was told verbally in the main points of the loan, that no costs would be incurred by me for being a diligent wee boy and paying off my loan early and I went on my merry way with my lovely loan.

Also I have paid off two large lump sums of $10,000 in the past and incurred no fees or charges.

To cut this forth installment short I am taking my bank to the banking ombudsman and the small claims court for breaking the Fair Trading Act - mis-representing a good or service for sale.

The main point of this rather disappointing sequel?

If you have a problem at your bank, don't roll over and ask to be taken from the rear, get on top and try to screw the scrum straight, you will at least feel better and you might even get a positive outcome. You can guarantee if you don't pin them to the wall they will continue to get your pants around your ankles at every opportunity.

Bryce is no longer my personal banker, I fired him for calling me Chief way too many times - once is enough, can you believe that?- and now the manager of Albany Branch is handling my accounts.

I am also looking for another bank.


Banking @ Share Investor

Banks not participating in Recession

Bank Guarantees: Time for banks to return the favour
The Return of Bryce
Banking Madness!

Discuss this topic @ Share Investor Forum



c Share Investor 2009



Live streaming of Michael Jackson Memorial


This is the live streaming of Michael Jackson's memorial held at the Staples Center in Los Angeles.

Rest in peace Mikey.

c Political Animal 2009

Tuesday, July 7, 2009

Stock of the Week: Auckland International Airport

http://chart.bigcharts.com/custom/fairfax-com-nz/chart.asp?symb=NZ:AIA&sid=162979&time=1yr&freq=1dy&uf=16384&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=64&sy=nzx&sn=1&site=nzx&countrycode=NZ&mocktick=1&country=NZ&style=2242&size=1&rand=7052


This Stock of the Week is a culmination of a number of additions to a stock in my portfolio that started from an original purchase of 1000 in 2006.

Auckland International Airport [AIA.NZ] makes up a bigger part of my portfolio this week as I almost doubled my holding to 5000 shares when I bought 2000 yesterday, at the 52 week low no less -that wont last, my purchases always dip after I buy in.

The share price closed at $1.53 today, close to the 52 week low of $1.51, still a bargain in my humble opinion and that is the main reason I picked it this week.

The share price reached a high above $3.60 less than 2 years ago and at less than half that price now it has a gross return of over 8% on offering, good considering returns on any other asset class these days.

The company is doing OK during the economic downturn, with a relatively stagnant profit and will perform to expectations once the economy recovers.

I like the company and bought more because of its monopoly status and the fact that several parties have taken large stakes in the prospect that the new National Government will be more relaxed to foreign ownership.

The Auckland Supercity's arrival in less than 2 years also puts the question of council ownership of airport shares up for grabs.

Above all the company is a good long term prospect for profit and therefore an increase in stock price.

Good luck!

Stock of the Week Series

Sky City Entertainment Group

Burger Fuel Worldwide
Michael Hill International
Contact Energy Ltd
The Warehouse Group
Fisher & Paykel Appliances

Auckland International Airport @ Share Investor Blog

Long VS Short: Auckland International Airport
Auckland Airport needs main focus on its core business
Marketwatch - Auckland International Airport
Why did you buy that stock: Auckland International Airport
Cullen's move on Auckland Airport has far reaching effects
Cullen's move on AIA tax plan Anti-Business
AIA profit stays grounded
Softening opposition to CPPIB bid for AIA
Directors of AIA bribe brokers not to sell
What is Auckland Airport worth to you?
Second bite at AIA by CPPIB might just fly
AIA new directors must focus on shareholders
Auckland Airport merger deal nosedives
The Canadians have landed
AIA incentive scheme must fly out the window
Government market manipulation over AIA/DAE deal
DAE move on AIA: Will it fly?

Discuss this stock @ Share Investor Forum

Related Amazon Reading

How to Pick Stocks Like Warren Buffett: Profiting from the Bargain Hunting Strategies of the World's Greatest Value Investor
How to Pick Stocks Like Warren Buffett: Profiting from the Bargain Hunting Strategies of the World's Greatest Value Investor by Timothy Vick
Buy new: $17.21 / Used from: $0.99
Usually ships in 24 hours


c Share Investor 2009