I haven't revisited the Winston Peters payola saga, because quite frankly the amount of time and energy put into it has been wasted.
Michael Cullen's belated move last week to guarantee deposits in the wake of a major world credit meltdown is his dumbest move ever as Finance Minister in 9 years and puts our banking and financial system at massive risk.
According to the latest TV ONE News Colmar Brunton poll for 26 October 2008, National have slipped two points.
A mini trend that has closed the gap from more than 20 points to 12 has happened over the last few polls.
The previous year-long plus trend was a large National lead:
The poll released on Sunday shows National without an absolute majority for the first time in a year.
The last poll a week ago showed National 14 points ahead of Labour, but this has now narrowed to 12 points.
The National Party has dropped back three points, down to 47%. Labour has also dropped back by one point, now on 35%. Labour's friends, the Green Party have bounced back, up to 8%. Meanwhile, New Zealand First is on 3%, edging closer to the magic 5% threshold.
The Maori Party is sitting on 2.8%, however, their focus is on the electorate seats, so they will not be too concerned with the low party vote. The Act Party is still just above 2%.
Under those numbers, National has 59 seats in parliament and would need the three Act seats to get a majority of 62. UnitedFuture has one seat and would line up with National.
In opposition, Labour has 44 seats, the Greens have 10 and the Progessives one seat.
The Maori Party has four seats, but will not yet say who they will side with, and with these numbers, New Zealand First is out of parliament.
Key is still the preferred choice for Prime Minister on 38% but the race has closed right up. Clark is now breathing down Key's neck on 37%, up by three points.
Polls were expected to close as the election drew nearer but National is still expected to win the majority of seats and votes on election night.
Colmar Brunton Polls
The Latest Roy Morgan Poll for October 24 2008 shows a comfortable lead for National and is in stark contrast to the October 10 Roy Morgan poll which showed Labour and National as close as 4.5%.
In mid October 2008 with the “World Financial Crisis” worsening the New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National Party support at 43% (up 2.5%), a healthy lead over the Labour Party 32% (down 5.5%). If the Election were held this weekend the National Party would form Government with the help of a minor party.
Support for the Greens 11.5% (up 2.5%) is at its highest level since the last election, while support for NZ First is 4.5% (up 0.5%), ACT NZ 3.5% (unchanged), the Maori Party 2.5% (up 0.5%), Progressive Party 0.5% (down 0.5%), United Future 0.5% (down 0.5%) and Others and Independents 2% (up 0.5%).
The Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating (97.0 points, down 5.3 points) has dropped sharply, falling back below 100 after only a few weeks in ‘positive territory’. Only 23% of New Zealanders expect New Zealand as a whole to have good times economically over the next 12 months. Full article.
There will be another couple of polls this weekend, from Fairfax Nielson and Colmar Brunton and one last round of polls from the 4 main pollsters next week before an embargo the week of the election.
c Political Animal 2008
The latest New Zealand Herald Digipoll for October 24 2008 shows National still with a commanding lead ahead of Labour. This continues the trend of big leads for National and contrast yesterdays TNS poll:
If the poll results were translated into votes, National could govern alone with 50.4 per cent of decided voters and 63 seats.
Prime Minister and Labour leader Helen Clark has improved in the preferred Prime Minister stakes, by 2.3 points, putting her fractionally ahead of National leader John Key, 45.4 per cent to 44.8 per cent. It is the first time she has been ahead since January.
Labour's 37 per cent poll figure means it would be able to muster 54 seats with the Progressives and the Greens.
The Maori Party, with four seats, would not hold the balance of power. Nor would it do so if it won all seven Maori seats but stayed on its 2.4 per cent poll rating in the party vote.
It looks likely that National party will govern alone based on today's polling.
Herald Digipollsc Political Animal 2008
Carrying on from last weeks look at my Portfolio and how it is getting a pasting, I have to make a point to those that have poked their ignorant little tongues at my propensity to invest in companies for the long-term.
As many who follow the Share Investor Blog might know I follow Warren Buffett's approach to investing as much as I can; buy stocks at a price that I consider value for the long-term, in good companies that have a competitive advantage, a good track record, excellent prospects for growth and good dividends.
The bulk of my portfolio is around 6 years old, but I have added some more stocks with additional money and dividend income.
My portfolio is currently up by around 7% when tax credits are included and in my not so humble opinion, considering the pasting global stockmarkets have been getting over the last year and especially in the last month a stockmarket meltdown rivaling the 1987 crash and yet my portfolio has performed extremely well.
This is principally because I have taken a long-term view to my stockmarket investing, received healthy dividends, re-invested most of them and haven't sold and because of that it has put the portfolio in good stead during the inevitable current downturn.
Of course, short-term things could get worse but long-term you will wish you didn't sell up because I will still be there when you start buying again.
Recent Share Investor Reading
The media attention to Lockwood Smith's comments 2 days ago about immigrants and their abilities or otherwise to do particular jobs or the inability to toilet themselves without coaching were interesting.
National is steady on 45.1 percent, and Labour actually drops to 37.4 percent. But the Greens are on 8.8 percent, and can be added to Labour's total.
New Zealand First has crept up to 3.5 percent, so Winston Peters cannot be ruled out making a return to Parliament. National leader John Key will be sweating - remember he has ruled working with Peters out.
The Maori Party is on 2.3 percent, but they are expected to win six, or perhaps even all seven Maori seats. ACT is on 1.7 percent, with just two MPs.
Peter Dunne's United Future is pretty unpopular, polling at 0.2 percent, as were the Progressives, on 0.1.
On this poll, Parliament would overhang to 123 seats. National would have 57 seats, ACT two, and United Future one – a total of 60 seats, and not enough to govern. In opposition Labour has 47 seats, the Greens 11 and the Progressives one – a total of 59, also not enough to govern.
The TNS poll is one of 4 different political polls done in New Zealand and the most inaccurate of the 4.
Other polls have shown a much larger lead for national and have consistently done so for almost 2 years.
c Political Animal 2008
The latest stats for immigration of Kiwis to Oz is a record number, no surprise there, those that have money, prospects, ambition and are sick to death with government interference in their lives, to the extent now they want regulate shower times, are leaving. Sure it is the easy way out, why not stay and fight?
Figures published by Statistics New Zealand yesterday show about 47,200 people left New Zealand for Australia on a permanent or long-term basis during the year to September. About 13,200 came the other way.
That produced a net outflow of 33,900 people from NZ to Australia - the highest since records were first compiled in 1978.
The previous peak was 33,700 in January 1989.
I personally will be leaving to go somewhere(I can hear a collective cheer from some) either Dallas or somewhere in Australia and will take my wife, money and hard-working taxpaying arse with me because the future would be bleak with another Marxist, socialist Labour Government.
We can look forward to more of the same bullshit. More welfare, more Government interfering, more mis-managing of the economy, more State directed dependence, crumbling government services and yes, shorter showers.
Part of me wants to see Labour returned to power so they can completely stuff up the possibility of being re-elected for a generation but I care too much about this country to see that happen.
It is going to be tough going for any government over the next 5 or six years because of the economic direness that Labour have managed us into but the coming tough times will have John Key in his element. Finance and economics is his specialty.
To have the Helen and Mikey show again is going to be fantastic for Air New Zealand and for those leaving on their planes to Australia, they will do well, because the best people are leaving and most will not come back.
The record numbers presently leaving will look small in proportion to those if a Labour government is re-elected.
Vote wisely this election.
c Political Animal 2008
One thing to consider for shareholders with stocks in New Zealand listed companies is managements planning for and reaction to the current credit crises and its associated recession-the one we are currently experiencing is the work of Michael Cullen, New Zealands Finance Minister.
The current recession is going to get worse because of the downturn in the global economy and that is clearly going to affect business in this country and our business leaders, CEOs and directors are going to be soundly tested over the next couple of years as they try to manage their businesses through a recession that could be worse than the one in the 1970s if not managed properly and may very well last longer.
How well have our CEOs prepared for this?
The recession in New Zealand has been indicated by the economic numbers for more than 6 months, so as shareholders we should expect that prudent managers have put the necessary groundwork into a business plan that will get them through the hard years coming.
What plans should they have made?
Well, clearly cutting any unnecessary costs first would be a priority, but there are a number of other things that could and should still be done and you should do some thorough research into our NZX listed companies above and beyond the normal facts and figures one looks at. How management have spent their shareholder dollars in the past and whether they even have plans to get them through a recession are a couple of good points to start on.
Pay down that outstanding debt as much as possible and cut back dividends (I know, that is hard to say) to shareholders and use that to pay down debt in the future-interest rates are set to rise and the terms of lending and the ability to borrow will be tougher.
Cull company middle management as much as possible, little is done by middle management anyway so they wont be missed and the company team will be able to communicate better and more efficiently without them.
Forgo massive directors fee price hikes. Now isn't the time for a pay rise and the next reporting season in February isn't likely to make shareholders think you deserved a rise anyway.
On average, of the 18 odd companies that I have shares in, directors are asking for around 25% more than last year. They don't deserve that much based on the August reporting season, let alone next years results.
Contact Energy for example are asking for 100% more in directors fees! I know, its more over the top than a pregnant Dolly Parton.
Re-visit contracts with suppliers and negotiate lower prices for future contracts where possible. The current economic climate will mean that some companies will do better deals just to do business-hopefully not the one that you own shares in though.
Put off non-core related capital spending-those company Commodores will last another few years more and image isn't everything if it means there is no company left because you just bought or leased 50 spanking new Toyota Prius'.
Good management will be cost conscious even at the best of economic times and that is clearly the best preparation for the tough times.
Some Kiwi listed companies that have done this well are Mainfreight, Freightways, Michael Hill International and Hallenstein Glasson.
Companies that have done this poorly include Sky City Entertainment, Auckland International Airport ,The Warehouse and Contact Energy.
I am a little annoyed that along with the vast amount of shareholder correspondence that we have all received this reporting season, scant column inches have been devoted to mapping out a plan for individual companies and how they will deal with a long economic downturn.
Yes, it would be nice to know our companies have a plan.
Good fiscal management should be a matter of course for all companies, countries, finance Ministers and individuals because living beyond ones means can get one into trouble and planning before a downturn hits can be crucial for company survival.
But even as we continue our way through the recession continued financial prudence is needed, even by those who have already prepared.
For those who haven't?
Well, some are definitely going to fail and that is just the way it should be.
Disclosure: I own Mainfreight, The Warehouse, Michael Hill, Freightways, Sky City, Auckland Airport and Hallenstein shares.
c Share Investor 2008
In 2005 Labour stole over $800,000 of your money to print pledge cards to buy the election that year and when taken to task decided to change the law retrospectively to make what they did legal.
A little birdy has told me there is more from Ian Wishart over the donations for passports scandal that Labour has been involved in and the mainstream media has pretty much ignored and misreported.
I just wonder out loud to nobody particular, if National or any other party are so desperate to get their feet on the parliamentary carpet then why haven't seen any knocking on my door?
Are Helen Clark and her Labour Government "Mugabe like", as the Maori Party contends she is?
Statistics NZ has been labelled threatening and heavy-handed by one respondent, who was sent a highlighted copy of the Statistics Act penalties schedule when he complained and tried to quit.
In 2002, 22,000 people were randomly selected to take part in the Statistics NZ Survey of Family, Income and Employment.
Wairarapa graphic artist Alistair Hughes has taken part for six years, but he and his wife asked to be excused last year as they thought the survey had become an offensive invasion of privacy. They were asked detailed questions relating to their income and expenditure, personal health and what surgery they might have had.
Statistics NZ wrote back telling Mr Hughes he was legally obliged to complete the survey, "though it is important we gain the cooperation of all those selected to take part", the letter said.
The highlighted penalty schedule was attached.
Standard of living manager Andrea Blackburn said though some people were reluctant to take part in the survey, they eventually agreed and there had been no prosecutions to date.
"Most people are willing to complete surveys once their value to New Zealand is explained," she said.
The survey is the first nationally representative, long-term study done in New Zealand. It was done randomly to ensure an even spread of respondents.
Mrs Blackburn said the data provided a valuable picture of changes in Kiwis' economic wellbeing. It was used to plan a range of issues - from retirement planning and programmes that helped move people into work, to determining levels of support for families and children.
"Used to plan a range of issues"?
When did anything the Government "plan" go right
Standard of living manager Andrea Blackburn said though some people were reluctant to take part in the survey, they eventually agreed and there had been no prosecutions to date.
New Zealand has a "standard of living" manager? WTF?
I wonder Andrea if a criminal prosecution and a large fine might have something to do with the zero prosecution rate.
This is the sort of nonsense we can do without, an extension of nanny State that serves no purpose and clearly hasn't been of any benefit so far as the results of the survey seem to have led to increased welfare, poorer education, increases in crime, a crumbling health system and a whole lot of other government planning stuff that simply doesn't work.
It does work well in one of its key objectives though.
It interferes in peoples lives where government is not wanted or needed.
c Political Animal 2008
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An interesting TV3 60 Minutes segment on Monday 20 October 2008 is the story of Owen Glenn, and some more input on donations to New Zealand First and the Labour Party and his regret at doing so.
The latest Colmar Brunton TV One poll for 19 October 2008 shows a slight gain by Labour and a small drop in support for National.
The gap was 14 points compared with 18 a week ago.
On 50 per cent support National would have 61 seats in Parliament and Labour 44.
The two different identities of the man that Ian Wishart has fingered in the donations for citizenship scandal that has hit Labour this weekend.
Labour’s official billboard.
Clever little arseholes those guys are too.
c Political Animal & those other guys, oh and Labour too
The standard line taken directly from Labours political handbook over the passport for donations scandal has been played out today in reaction to Ian Wisharts latest expose'.
"All citizenship decisions are made by the Minister of Internal Affairs, except where there may be an actual or perceived conflict of interest," said Mr Barker.
In that circumstance, a decision was made by another minister.
Mr Barker said an investigation was being made into "the possibility of immigration fraud in this case".
He did not want to jeopardise this process, and there would be no further comment from ministers.
No further comment was the line from Labour before the 2005 election over the Phillip Field immigration scandal which is now before the courts but this time the implications for Labour are much more serious. There are allegations made by Wishart that the individual at the centre of the scandal, Yang Liu, a Chinese National with several identities, has made donations to Labour in return for New Zealand citizenship and the much coveted New Zealand passport.
Watch now for Labour Party insiders, directed by Labour leak some sort of baseless lie or "leaked tape" to misdirect the groveling leftist media again.
This is another standard Labour political line when they are in a corner.
A Fairfax Poll out today indicates that Labour Party muck raking directed at National has had no effect and the opposition still have a clear and consistent lead, which has been the trend for nearly two years.
Read Wisharts full account of the money for passports scandal
c Political Animal 2008
Today's Fairfax Nielsen poll suggests voters have been largely unmoved by the rapidly unfolding events of recent weeks, including a worsening economic outlook in the wake of the international credit crisis, the big campaign launches on Sunday, the release of National and Labour's economic packages, and the first televised leaders' debate between Labour's Helen Clark and National's John Key.
The poll puts National on 51 per cent and Labour on 33 per cent - figures virtually unchanged from a month ago.
Only the Green Party makes it above the 5 per cent threshold for winning seats in Parliament, rising two points to 7 per cent.
The biggest change has been in the preferred prime minister ratings, with Miss Clark moving up five points to 35 per cent. Mr Key is down two points to 43 per cent.
Every poll bar one recent Roy Morgan Poll last week has shown a trend of a lead by National and in polling it is the trend that should be believed and the trend continues to show a strong lead for National and New Zealanders wanting a change of Government.
Last weeks TV One Colmar Brunton Poll also confirms the trend established by the Fairfax poll
Interesting that last week Helen Clark belied the aforementioned Roy Morgan poll that showed the gap between Labour and National at a round 4 points but today's Fairfax Nielson poll which shows National well in the lead:
Mr Key said yesterday that the poll was encouraging, but there was still a long way to go, while Miss Clark made it clear she did not believe the result.
"That doesn't reflect the trend in other recent polls," she said.
Oh but it does Helen, it does.
Fairfax Nielson polls
Fairfax Nielson Poll: 20 Sept 2008
Fairfax Nielson Poll: August 16 2008
Fairfax Nielson Poll: 19 July 2008
Fairfax Neilson Poll: 21 June 2008
Fairfax Neilson Poll: 17 May 2008
Fairfax Neilson Poll: 23 Feb 2008
c Stuff.co.nz & Political Animal 2008
