Roy Morgan Poll : July 18 2008

The latest Roy Morgan Political Poll continues a trend started 12 months ago of a huge gap between National and Labour. The latest poll continues this trend.


Finding No. 4308 - Latest Roy Morgan Poll on New Zealand voter intention.: July 18, 2008

In mid July 2008 the New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National Party support at 52% (up 0.5%) clearly ahead of the Labour Party 31% (up 0.5%), if an election were held now the National Party would win.

Support for the Greens was 7.5% (down 0.5%), NZ First 6.5% (up 2.5% to its highest level since September 2006), Maori Party 1% (down 1.5%), United Future 1% (unchanged) and ACT NZ 0.5% (down 1.5%).

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen to a record low 87 (down 1) and the Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating although up 3.7 points, is also at a near record low 85.7.

Gary Morgan says:

“The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows the Labour Government of Helen Clark (31%) failing to make any inroads into the lead of the National Party (52%).

“The Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating (85.7, up 3.7 points) remains near its record low with an equal record majority of New Zealanders (64%) saying they expect bad economic times over the next 12 months.

“These results present Helen Clark with a huge challenge to gain re-election. At the latest, the New Zealand Election must be held by early November and time is quickly running out for Clark to find away to connect with the electorate.”

Electors were asked: “If an election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

This latest Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 871 electors from June 30 — July 13, 2008.

VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY

The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the September 17, 2005 General Election:

PRIMARY VOTE	Labour	National	Progressive Party	NZ First	Green Party	United Future	Maori Party*	ACT NZ	Other
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
General Election, July 27, 2002	41.3	20.9	1.7	10.4	7	6.7	n/a	7.1	6.6
General Election, September 17, 2005	41.1	39.1	1.16	5.72	5.3	2.67	2.12	1.51	2.48
MORGAN POLL
September 20 - October 2, 2005	36.5	41.5	1	4.5	9	3	1	1.5	3
October 4-16, 2005	39	40.5	1	5	7	3.5	2	1.5	0.5
October 18-31, 2005	37.5	40	0.5	6	9	3.5	1	1	1.5
November 1-14, 2005	37.5	40	0.5	7	7	3	2	2	1
November 15-27, 2005	39	40.5	1	5.5	8.5	2	1	1.5	1
November 28 - December 9, 2005	40	40	0.5	6	7.5	2.5	1	1.5	1
January 4-12, 2006	40.5	42.5	0.5	4.5	6.5	1.5	2	0.5	1.5
January 13—23, 2006	39	40.5	0	4.5	8.5	3	1.5	1.5	1.5
January 24 - February 5, 2006	38.5	39	0.5	5.5	9.5	3	1.5	2.5	0
February 7-19, 2006	40	40	0.5	3.5	10	1.5	2.5	1.5	0.5
February 22 - March 6, 2006	43	39	0.5	4.5	7.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1
March 7-19, 2006	42.5	41	0	3.5	7.5	2	2	1	0.5
March 20 - April 2, 2006	40	43	0.5	4.5	6.5	1.5	1.5	1	1.5
April 3-16, 2006	41.5	40	1	3.5	7	2	2	2.5	0.5
April 17-30, 2006	40.5	40.5	0.5	3.5	8.5	2.5	2.5	1.5	-
May 1-14, 2006	39.5	41	0.5	5	7.5	3	1	1.5	1
May 15-28, 2006	41	44	0.5	3	6.5	1.5	1.5	1	1
May 29 — June 11, 2006	40	44.5	-	4.5	6.5	2	1	1.5	-
June 12-25, 2006	37	45	0.5	5	6.5	1.5	2	1.5	1
July 3-16, 2006	43	39	-	4.5	8	2	1	1.5	1
July 17 - 30, 2006	40	42	-	3.5	8.5	2	2	1	1
July 31 - August 13, 2006	39	41	-	3.5	9	3	2	1.5	1
August 14-27, 2006	38.5	44	0.5	4	7	1	2.5	1.5	1
August 28 - September 10, 2006	41	38	0.5	5.5	8.5	2	3	1.5	^
September 16 - October 1, 2006	36	41.5	-	7	8.5	2.5	2.5	1.5	0.5
October 2-15, 2006	40	40	^	5	8.5	1.5	1.5	2	1.5
October 16-29, 2006	38.5	41	^	3	8	3	2.5	1.5	2.5
October 30 — November 12, 2006	38.5	42.5	0.5	5	7.5	1.5	2.5	0.5	1.5
November 13 - 26, 2006	37.5	42.5	^	4.5	8	3	2	1.5	1
November 27 - December 12, 2006	37.5	44.5	0.5	4	9.5	2	1	0.5	0.5
January 3-21, 2007	41	41	0.5	4	7.5	1	2	1.5	1.5
January 23 - February 5, 2007	39.5	41.5	0.5	4	8	1.5	2	2.5	0.5
February 6-18, 2007	36	48.5	^	3	8.5	1.5	1.5	1	-
February 19 - March 4, 2007	36	45	0.5	2	8.5	1.5	3.5	2.5	0.5
March 5-18, 2007	37.5	45	^	4	7.5	1.5	3.5	1	-
March 19 - April 2, 2007	35.5	46	^	3.5	9.5	1	2.5	1	1
April 3-16, 2007	33.5	45.5	^	6	8.5	2	2	1	1.5
April 23 - May 6, 2007	36	49.5	^	4.5	6	1.5	1.5	0.5	0.5
May 7-20, 2007	32	49	0.5	4.5	7	1.5	2.5	1.5	1.5
May 21 - June 3, 2007	33.5	50.5	-	3.5	6.5	2	1.5	2	0.5
June 4-17, 2007	36	49.5	0.5	3	6.5	0.5	1.5	1.5	1
June 18 - July 1, 2007	34	48.5	1	2.5	8.5	1.5	2	1	1
July 2-15, 2007	36	47	0.5	5	6.5	1	2	1.5	0.5
July 16-29, 2007	35	49	0.5	4	6	0.5	3	0.5	1.5
July 30 - August 12, 2007	31	50.5	0.5	4	7	2	3	1.5	0.5
August 20 - September 2, 2007	34	48	0.5	2.5	9.5	0.5	3	1	1
September 3-16, 2007	35	49	^	2.5	7.5	1	3	1.5	0.5
September 17-30, 2007	33	48.5	0.5	3	9.5	1.5	2.5	1	0.5
October 1-14, 2007	39	45.5	^	3	7.5	1.5	2	0.5	1
October 15-28, 2007	40.5	45	^	3.5	6.5	1.5	1.5	1	0.5
October 29-Novmber 11, 2007	34	48	^	5.5	7.5	1	2.5	1	0.5
November 12-25, 2007	35	48	0.5	5	6.5	0.5	2.5	1.5	0.5
November 26-December 9, 2007	34.5	47.5	0.5	5	6	1.5	2	2	1
January 3-20, 2008	33.5	52	0.5	3.5	6.5	0.5	2	1	0.5
January 21-February 3, 2008	36.5	45.5	0.5	4	9	0.5	1.5	2	0.5
February 4-17, 2008	32.5	51.5	0.5	3	8	0.5	3	0.5	0.5
February 18-March 2, 2008	35	49.5	0.5	4	7	0.5	2	1	0.5
March 3-16, 2008	34	51	0.5	3	6.5	1	2	2	0.5
March 24-April 6, 2008	34.5	47	0.5	4	9	0.5	3	1.5	^
April 7 - 20, 2008	35.5	50	^	3.5	6.5	0.5	2.5	1.5	^
April 21 - May 4, 2008	35.5	49.5	^	4.5	6.5	1	2	1	^
May 5-18, 2008	35	49	^	4	7.5	0.5	2.5	1	0.5
May 19 - June 1, 2008	32	50.5	0.5	4	7	1	3	1.5	0.5
June 2 - 15, 2008	31.5	52.5	^	4	7	0.5	2	2	0.5
June 16 - 29, 2008	30.5	51.5	^	4	8	1	2.5	2	0.5
June 30-July 13, 2008	31	52	0.5	6.5	7.5	1	1	0.5	^

*The Maori Party was launched in July 2004; ^ Result less than 0.5%

The Morgan Poll was the most accurate in predicting the small margin between the two major parties (a Labour lead of 1.5%) for the September 2005 General Election.

New Zealand Regional Voting Intention Summary

Auckland

MORGAN POLL	Labour	National	Progressive Alliance	NZ First	Green Party	United Future	Maori Party*	ACT NZ	Other
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%

July 2006	38	44.5	0.5	5.5	6	2	1.5	1.5	0.5
August 2006	38.5	43.5	^	3	8.5	2.5	2	1.5	0.5
September 2006	41	41.5	0.5	2.5	8	2.5	1.5	1.5	1
October 2006	35	44.5	^	5	9.5	2	2	2	^
November 2006	33	47	0.5	5.5	8	1.5	2.5	1.5	0.5
December 2006	36	46	^	4	9	1.5	2	1	0.5
January 2007	38	44	0.5	3.5	7.5	1.5	2	1.5	1.5
February 2007	34.5	49.5	0.5	3.5	6.5	0.5	1	3	1
March 2007	37.5	46	^	2.5	8	1.5	2.5	1.5	0.5
April 2007	35.5	45	^	2.5	10	2	2.5	2	0.5
May 2007	35	48	^	3.5	7	2	3	0.5	1
June 2007	30.5	54.5	^	3.5	6.5	1	1	2	1
July 2007	32.5	52	^	2	5.5	2	3	2	1
August 2007	30	53	^	4.5	6.5	1.5	2.5	1	1
September 2007	32.5	54.5	^	2	6.5	^	3.5	0.5	0.5
October 2007	35.5	51	^	2.5	6.5	1	2.5	1	^
November 2007	36	50	^	5	4.5	0.5	2.5	1	0.5
December 2007	33.5	51.5	^	4	5	1	2	2.5	0.5
January 2008	34	52	^	4	7	0.5	1	1.5	^
February 2008	36	48	0.5	2.5	8	0.5	2	2	0.5
March 2008	32.5	52	0.5	3	7.5	1	1.5	1.5	0.5
April 2008	32.5	51	^	3.5	8.5	^	1.5	2.5	0.5
May 2008	33.5	51.5	^	4	6.5	1	2	1	0.5
June 2008	32	51.5	0.5	3.5	7	0.5	2.5	2	0.5

Wellington

MORGAN POLL	Labour	National	Progressive Alliance	NZ First	Green Party	United Future	Maori Party*	ACT NZ	Other
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
July — August 2006	47.5	36	^	2.5	7.5	1.5	2	2	1
September — October 2006	50	32.5	0.5	1.5	8	2	1.5	2.5	1.5
November — December 2006	44.5	36.5	^	1.5	9	3.5	2	1.5	1.5
January — February 2007	44	38	0.5	1.5	11.5	1	2	1	0.5
March — April 2007	41.5	38.5	^	4	8.5	2	4	0.5	1
May — June 2007	36.5	43.5	^	3	10.5	2	2	1.5	1
July — August 2007	40.5	41.5	0.5	2.5	9	2	2.5	1.5	^
September — October 2007	39.5	38	1	2.5	13.5	2	2	1	0.5
November — December 2007	34	41	0.5	3	13	2	2.5	2.5	1.5
January — February 2008	39.5	42	^	3.5	10	0.5	3	1	0.5
March — April 2008	40	43.5	^	1.5	11.5	0.5	1.5	1	0.5
May — June 2008	38	44.5	^	3	9	1	1.5	2.5	0.5

Christchurch

MORGAN POLL	Labour	National	Progressive Alliance	NZ First	Green Party	United Future	Maori Party*	ACT NZ	Other
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
July — August 2006	42	41	^	2.5	10	2	0.5	1	0.5
September — October 2006	39	40	0.5	6.5	8	1.5	0.5	2.5	1.5
November — December 2006	43.5	36.5	1	5	8.5	2.5	0.5	2	1
January — February 2007	38	40	1	3	11	2.5	1	2.5	1
March — April 2007	33.5	43.5	1	6	10	2.5	1	1.5	1
May — June 2007	38	47.5	1	2.5	6.5	1	1.5	1	1
July — August 2007	36	46	1.5	5	7	1.5	1	^	2
September — October 2007	43	42.5	0.5	1	8	1	2	1	1
November — December 2007	39	47.5	1	3.5	7	0.5	0.5	1	^
January — February 2008	29	57	1	3	8	0.5	1	0.5	^
March — April 2008	39.5	44	1	2	8.5	1	1.5	1.5	1
May — June 2008	38	49.5	^	3.5	6.5	0.5	1	0.5	0.5

Other North Island

MORGAN POLL	Labour	National	Progressive Alliance	NZ First	Green Party	United Future	Maori Party*	ACT NZ	Other
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
July — August 2006	36.5	43.5	^	6	7	2	3	1.5	0.5
September — October 2006	34.5	42	^	8	7.5	1.5	4.5	1.5	0.5
November — December 2006	35.5	44.5	^	5	7	2.5	3.5	1	1
January — February 2007	37	45	^	5.5	6	1.5	3.5	1	0.5
March — April 2007	32	49.5	^	5	6.5	1	4	1.5	0.5
May — June 2007	33.5	51.5	^	5.5	4.5	1.5	2	1	0.5
July — August 2007	32	50	0.5	4.5	7	1	3.5	1	0.5
September — October 2007	32	49	^	4.5	8.5	1	4	0.5	0.5
November — December 2007	35.5	46.5	^	6	5.5	1	3.5	1	1
January — February 2008	32	50	0.5	4.5	7	0.5	4	0.5	1
March — April 2008	31	51.5	^	6	5.5	0.5	4	1	0.5
May — June 2008	31	51.5	^	5	6	0.5	4	1.5	0.5

Other South Island

MORGAN POLL	Labour	National	Progressive Alliance	NZ First	Green Party	United Future	Maori Party*	ACT NZ	Other
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
July — August 2006	41	40.5	^	3	11	2.5	0.5	^	1.5
September — October 2006	43.5	42	^	3.5	7	2	1	1	^
November — December 2006	40.5	42.5	1	2.5	9	3	1	^	0.5
January — February 2007	46.5	40.5	^	1.5	8.5	1.5	^	0.5	1
March — April 2007	40	44	^	3	10	1	1	0.5	0.5
May — June 2007	36	49.5	^	3	7	1	1	1.5	1
July — August 2007	38	46	1	3	7	1	1.5	0.5	2
September — October 2007	35.5	49.5	^	1.5	8.5	2	1	1.5	0.5
November — December 2007	39	44.5	^	5	9	2	^	0.5	^
January — February 2008	34.5	51	^	3.5	9	0.5	^	1	0.5
March — April 2008	40.5	49.5	^	1.5	5	1.5	1.5	^	0.5
May — June 2008	33	52	^	3.5	9.5	0.5	1	0.5	^

NEW ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION?

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

	New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates
	Aug 20-Sep 2, 2007	Sep 3-16, 2007	Sep 17-30, 2007	Oct 1-14, 2007	Oct 15-28, 2007	Oct 29-Nov 11, 2007	Nov 12-25, 2007	Nov 26-Dec 9, 2007	Jan 3-20, 2008	Jan 21-Feb 3, 2008	Feb 4-17, 2008
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Right direction	51.5	54	49.5	53	50.5	43.5	47	47.5	46.5	46	47
Wrong direction	35.5	32.5	34.5	32	33	37.5	37	38	39	38.5	41
Roy Morgan GCR#	116	121.5	115	121	117.5	106	110	109.5	107.5	107.5	106
Can’t say	13	13.5	16	15	16.5	19	16	14.5	14.5	15.5	12
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).

	New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates
	Feb 18-Mar 2, 2008	Mar 3-16, 2008	Mar 24- Apr 6, 2008	Apr 7-20, 2008	April 21-May 4, 2008	May 5-18, 2008	May 19-June 1, 2008	June 2-15, 2008	June 16-29, 2008	June 30-July 13, 2008
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Right direction	52.5	45.5	47.5	50.5	44.5	38	38	42.5	37	36.5
Wrong direction	34	37.5	37.5	34.5	40.5	44.5	44.5	40.5	49	49.5
Roy Morgan GCR#	118.5	108	110	116	104.5	93.5	93.5	102	88	87
Can’t say	13.5	17	15	15	15	17.5	17.5	17	14	14
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).

For further information:

Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

Finding No. 4308 is taken from Computer Report No. 2253

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

Getting fluffy and cute with Teresa Gattung

Come back Teresa, all is forgiven, we love you!

That is what I would be saying if I wasn't being realistic about the disastrous job that Teresa Gattung did at the helm of Telecom New Zealand [TEL] .

Teresa, whose expertise is apparently in marketing, milked Telecom of dividends, failed to invest for the future and cost long term Telecom shareholders billions , as the company share price recently plumbed the depths of sub NZ$3.20 .

After all that she has been resurrected like one of those genetically enhanced sheep from the 2007 film "Black Sheep", the girl just wont die.

Appropriate that I make an early sheep joke because now someone has shepherded her back to New Zealand to become chairwoman of The Wool Company, which is undergoing a complete re-branding under the guidance of PGG Wrightson [PGW] chairman Craig Norgate.

Now you might think this post is about sticking it to Gattung again. Well that is where you would be wrong.

While Ms Gattung was the worst possible person to head a communications company, principally because she doesn't communicate well, as a marketer, she is perfect for resurrecting the tired image and fortunes of the New Zealand wool industry.

Wool isn't sexy, it is still being used mainly in lower margin products like carpet and bulk wool, whereas it could be marketed for use in higher margin goods like quality clothing, specialist outdoor gear and other high end product.

Now I could be wrong, she maybe an awful marketer, however, at Telecom, under her wing, she developed some of the best marketing in business at the time.

The high end wool business could be a high value export business if managed and marketed well and you have to give Gattung a couple of years before you can right her off completely.

Lets hope she doesn't try to pull the wool over her customers eyes, as she did at Telecom.

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c Share Investor 2008

Share Investor Portfolio: 18 July 2008

The Share Investor Portfolio now contains 17 stocks listed on the NZSX. The bulk of the portfolio started back in 2002 and I have added to the bulk of it by using dividends and some cash.


The Share Investor Portfolio as at 18 July 2008

• Auckland International Airport [AIA] 1000
  
• ASB Capital NO. 2 Ltd [ASBPB] 10000
• Briscoe Group Ltd [BGR] 3000
• Fletcher Building Ltd [FBU] 1000
• Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corp Ltd [FPH] 5000
• Freightways Ltd [FRE] 8200
• Goodman Fielder Ltd [GFF] 2000
  
• Halleinstein Glasson Ltd [HLG] 1000
• Kiwi Income Property Trust [KIP] 1000
• Mainfreight Ltd [MFT] 3125
• Michael Hill International Ltd [MHI] 3000
• Postie Plus Ltd [PPG] 2535
  
• Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL] 5000
• Ryman Healthcare Ltd [RYM] 5000
• Sky City Entertainment [SKC] 35000
• Steel & Tube Holdings Ltd [STU] 400
• The Warehouse Group Ltd [WHS] 8000
  

Related Share Investor Reading: Why did you buy that stock?

Why did you buy that stock? [Fletcher Building Ltd]
Why did you buy that stock? [Freightways Ltd]
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Why did you buy that stock? [Briscoe Group]
Why did you buy that stock? [Fisher & Paykel Healthcare]
Why did you buy that stock? [Pumpkin Patch Ltd]
Why did you buy that stock? [Ryman Healthcare]
Why did you buy that stock? [Michael Hill International]
Why did you buy that stock? [Mainfreight Ltd]
Why did you buy that stock? [The Warehouse Group]
Why did you buy that stock? [Goodman Fielder]
Why did you buy that stock? [Auckland Airport]
Why did you buy that stock? [Sky City Entertainment]


Discuss this topic @ Shareinvestor.net.nz

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c Share Investor 2008

Kiwis breathe a sigh of frustration, not relief, over distant meagre tax cuts

c Tom Scott, Stuff.co.nz 2008


In a story in yesterday's NZ Herald Mr Cullen said tax cuts in October would bring "relief".

"From October 1 all New Zealanders will get a tax cut that should provide some relief from rising prices." Michael Cullen 16.7.08

Well, I don't get tax cuts from that date because I'm self employed and 10s of thousands of other Kiwis are as well.

It seems bizarre that Dr Cullen would trumpet "tax relief" when Kiwis need it now. They actually needed it years ago. Labour decided to stop taking as much tax off us in the budget this May but the 6 month wait makes Labour's decision political rather than any sort of benevolent government helping out the proletariat. On average the October cuts are equal to less than one block of cheese.

National would have brought their tax cuts in with urgency and unlike Dr Cullen's election bribe, tax cuts were something that the National Party have been pushing for years. Dr Cullen doesn't believe in tax cuts, he thinks the State should spend your money.

“We just don't believe in tax cuts - it's against our fundamental philosophy - after all we are socialists and proud of it.”— Dr Michael Cullen


We can however have a NZ$ 2 billion decision to buy 17th century technology, KiwiRail, made on the fly instantly, lose $1.5 billion of shareholder money by stopping the sale of the Auckland Airport, and increases in road user charges and an extra tax on petrol for all, both increasing cost to the average kiwi and more than wiping out any tax cut come October. But we cant have the meagre tax cut now?

In fact the amount of Government promised election spending so far announced by Labour puts the tax cuts in the shade. We will all be a least $30 pr week behind thanks to Cullen's "generosity" in the wake of an election.

Remember this when you cast your ballot this November:

My view is that tax cuts are largely offered as a political bribe, not because of beneficial economic or social effects.

— Dr Michael Cullen



Related Political Animal reading

Michael Cullen speaks with forked tongue
Cullen's history on tax cuts comes back to haunt him
Wednesday Political Soup: Edition 3 2nd story down - Let them eat cake
Labour and their last crusade



c Political Animal 2008

Not so sweet Fanny Mae

The Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac saga is big by world standards.

Trillions of dollars of mortgages are involved, in fact the firms between them own or guarantee about half of the $12 trillion in U.S. mortgages.

I asked a question about 6 years ago, what would happen if these two institutions tipped over? This was in the light of many US companies involved in "accounting irregularities" at the time and that Fannie and Freddie was a possible inclusion.

The immediate cause of the problems that became public at Freddie Mac in 2002 appeared to be accounting properly for the use of derivatives, what Warren Buffett has called "financial weapons of mass destruction". Under the previous accounting procedures, income for the years 2000, 2001 and 2002 was understated, with income for the future overstated. Freddie and Fannie management decided that this method would be used to “smooth out” earnings, providing reassurance to financial markets and leading ultimately to lower interest rate costs.

The President of Freddie Mac was sacked for his part in the company's "accounting problems".

While assets of the 2 big macs went up in value, via customers house prices, there wasn't a problem, but as the sub prime saga unfolded property prices were hit and Fanny and Freddie now have a big cash flow problem. They are essentially insolvent.

I now know the answer to my question and it ain't a pleasant one to stomach, especially given the problem was painfully evident years ago.

These entities will probably go under without US taxpayer funds being pumped into them and the current credit crises that the business and financial world is experiencing will get considerably worse and there would probably be a contagion effect with other banks going under. The derivatives market upon which most of Fannie and Freddie's business is backed, would unwind and explode upon other financial institutions holding theses derivatives as assets, some of them the ones we have already seen in the news and some we haven't heard from yet.

As the planet is facing tough economic times at present, for Fannie May and Freddie Mac to go under would no doubt cause a massive recession the likes of we haven't seen in generations so one could understand why Henry Paulson and the Fed are looking at bailing these turkeys out.

But, and its a big giant butt, why should the US taxpayer have to bail out even more financial institutions, this time possibly to the whopping tune of US$1 trillion?

The answer is that they will take the rest of us down with them if nothing is done. Hard to stomach, given those that didn't binge on cheap debt and over spend, were not the ones who took the risks in the first place but will suffer anyway.

In New Zealand our mainstream lenders haven't been as reckless, however, the present Labour government wants to start our own sub prime lending, so it could be a problem for us in the future.

Kiwis would be affected indirectly though by a collapse of the two macs, so it is an important story for New Zealand and every other country because a collapse would affect our fragile economy and faith in markets, lending and business even more than it already has.

The bizarre thing is though, while we have been flooded with Tony Veitch and Winston Peter's stories, coverage by our local media over Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae has been largely relegated to small pieces in the businesses pages and biz segments on TV news, not in the mainstream news, where it clearly deserves to be.

Confidence in the economy is much needed right now, Fannie and Freddie have knocked it about again. What Henry Paulson does in the next few days is going to be the difference between a complete meltdown and the status quo.

Unfortunately, I fear there are more Freddies and Fannies to come.

That just ain't sweet.

Related Share Investor Reading

Global credit squeeze: There is no free lunch
Lenders must come clean over losses to restore faith in credit markets
Global Market meltdown: What is Warren Buffett doing?
Credit crunch a blessing in disguise
Market meltdown: I can smell the fear from here
Mr Market gets his groove on
What happened to risk?
State backed Sub Prime mortgages in New Zealand
The global economy looks bad now, but wait theres more
NZ Sharemarket set for a Winter and Summer of discontent


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c Share Investor 2008

Financial weapons of mass destruction

In the wake of the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac fallout last week, I thought it appropriate to re-post an article that I wrote in April this year for the Everything Warren Buffett Blog on reactions to the sub prime fallout.

In less than 5 months things have gotten considerably worse.


Latest on global financial fallout - to July 17 2008

The Fannie-Freddie Dodge -Washington Post
Dollar Little Changed Before Housing, Manufacturing Reports - Bloomberg
Financial crisis and inflation fears plunge w markets - Merco Press
Dollar up, stocks dip on Fannie Freddie plan - Forbes
Economic pain: 'Payback' for debt-fueled growth? - USA Today
Of Course It's A Recession -Forbes
Britain Appears Recession-Bound - BusinessWeek
Economist Predicts Worst is Just Ahead - West Orlando News


The announcement on March 31 (US time) that secretary Paulson is going to regulate the United State's financial markets with changes to it not seen since the Great Depression leaves me with a thought that has been running rat wheels in my mind ever since the current "Credit Crunch" kicked off.

Midway through last year, the Fed began sticking its filthy little hands in dikes all across the financial backbone of the USA by propping up institutions who had lent too much money to those who now cannot pay and to keep the wheels of commerce greased by trying to increase liquidity in the credit market-so we can do business with each other.

Now I am skeptical at the best of times as to State involvement in anything, let alone interfering in capital markets and don't have the foggiest whether the announcement by Paulson is going to change anything in the future at all.


Global financial fallout - to April 31 2008

German watchdog eyes $600 bln global bank losses: report- Reuters
Overhaul of Wall Street regulation doesn't address current crisis- International Herald Tribune
International Financial Panel Urges Bank Disclosures on Risk Exposure- Wall Street Journal
G7 to press big banks to reveal extent of credit crunch losses -Times Online
US prepares to give Fed sweeping oversight powers -Taipei Times
Ghosts of the Great Depression -Business Spectator
US Fed to be grilled over massive support to financial system- MercoPress
World Bank cuts East Asia growth forecast- Channel News Asia
East Asia Economies Pressed by Inflation- The Associated Press

The 1933 changes didn't stop the bear market in the 1970s, it didn't stop the sharemarket crash of 1987 or the tech bubble bursting in 2000 or the current credit crisis because of dodgy lending and investment practices related to that lending.

The interventions by the Fed and its global equivalents, to shore up credit liquidity is the main rat on the wheel in my mind.

What have these interventions stopped?

One can only speculate but one can do that with a largish amount of surety.

During the Great Depression, when faith in financial markets at the time was at an all time low there simply wasn't any intervention by the State apparatus to ameliorate what happened on that infamous day in 1929 when Wall Street threw a woopsey and capitalism jumped out of tall buildings in the financial districts around New York and around the world.

Have interventions in financial markets by State backed funds globally stopped some sort of 2008 crash from happening?

Probably, but not to the extent of 1929, but it is clear that it would have been a crash of some serious nature had there not been intervention.

Another question I have running through my head is, how long will the squillions of taxpayer dollars pumped into the economy stave off the inevitability of a bigger blowout?

That is harder to answer. In order to know better one would have to know the losses involved in the Sub prime loans and associated sub prime bonds, and we are no closer to knowing that than knowing if Hillary Clinton is going to be the Democratic Party leader or if Barry Obama still loves his preacher.

The vexed question of the massive derivatives market also looms in the minds of investors:

Large amounts of risk, particularly credit risk, have become concentrated in the hands of relatively few derivatives dealers, who in addition trade extensively with one another. The troubles of one could quickly infect the others. On top of that, these dealers are owed huge amounts by nondealer counterparties. Some of these counterparties, as I’ve mentioned, are linked in ways that could cause them to contemporaneously run into a problem because of a single event (such as the implosion of the telecom industry or the precipitous decline in the value of merchant power projects). Linkage, when it suddenly surfaces, can trigger serious systemic problems.

"Derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction. The dangers are now latent--but they could be lethal".

[Warren Buffett 2003]


Warren Buffett aside, I don't think anyone fancies the Fed's chances of shoring up the derivatives market should the dominoes start to topple.


What is clear is this scenario has at least the rest of the year to fully play out and further State intervention should be carefully applied only if is really going to work and not because the Fed needs to be seen to be doing something.

Hold onto those gold bars and keep the cash under the mattress, you just might need it.

Related Share Investor Reading

Global Market meltdown: What is Warren Buffett doing?
Credit crunch a blessing in disguise
Market meltdown: I can smell the fear from here
Mr Market gets his groove on
What happened to risk?
Global credit squeeze: There is no free lunch
Lenders must come clean over losses to restore faith in credit markets

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c Share Investor 2008

Sky City outlines a clear future plan

Today's newsletter to Sky City Entertainment [SKC.NZ] shareholders got me a little excited for the company and its future direction, and that hasn't happened for a few years.

The content of the newsletter outlined the direction that CEO Nigel Morrison wanted the company was to proceed towards, how it was going to get there, and a time frame to stick to.

The language was clear, to the point, and had none of the "management speak" of past shareholder communication.

It reminds me somewhat of the management at Mainfreight Ltd [MFT.NZ] and their no nonsense approach to ramming their point home.

Now whether management achieve their stated goals is another question, but previous management were truly awful communicators; to their shareholders,within the company and definitely to their customers and the market.

A clear way of communication in business often translates into positive results. Uncomplicated communication gives a clear direction for employees and can translate into a more productive and happier workforce and hopefully a better bottom line.

Morrison has also made practical moves towards the stated company goal, new management have been hired to grow individual casino businesses and a focus on organic growth is emphasised throughout the shareholder communication.

The direction the company is headed is most directly apparent in the outlook for 2009.

"Our shareholders have made it clear to us that they want us to focus on maximising the performance of the assets we operate. This is what we will be doing. as we have said previously, we expect to achieve this within an 18-month time frame. We will retain tight control over capital and not expend capital unless we are very confident of healthy returns for shareholders".

Lets hope the follow through shows some concrete results in the following 18 months.


Related Share Investor reading

Business gobbledygook puts up barriers to communication
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c Share Investor 2008

Winston's silence is telling

It seems more than a little hypocritical of Winston Peters to say what he calls the "National Party having secret donations from rich backers to trusts and other intermediaries to hide when the money comes from", when his party has probably been doing the same thing itself.

What is even worse is that Winnie backed and voted for the Electoral Finance Act. Something that he and its other backers said would "stop big money from buying an election".

Peters and his party have clearly been given money from ex pat billionaire Owen Glenn, there are emails and other evidence to support this. Peters still denies that he or his party have benefited from any large donation from Glenn, "into his or his party's bank account", going to the extent of asking Audrey Young, from the NZ Herald, the journo who broke the scandal, to "check his accounts".

Of course Winston or his party may not have got money directly into any of their respective accounts but money from Glenn may have been paid into a trust account, his PR company account or any other trust that Peters or his party or members operate.

Every other party in Parliament do similar things but it is usually no secret when asked by media.

In the light of evidence that Owen Glenn did give money to Peters, at least through a related party, Peters needs to front up with the truth rather than hiding his sanctimonious hypocritical manoeuvres under spin and bluster.

Yet can bet that Peters would want the full picture from anyone else in his position.

It was his trademark when he was in opposition.

Related Political Animal Reading

Labour gets tangled in Peter's lies
Leaked Glenn Email
Winston got secret donations from Owen Glenn
Labour Party Election funding murky at best
Electoral Finance Bill: The purpose is clear
The Owen Glenn Story: Singing the same tune but hitting a bum note

c Political Animal 2008

As recession bites Sky City bites back

I have had a correspondent through email over several months asking me about whether he should sell his Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd [SKC.NZX] shares. In March he asked the following question.

I'm a big fan of your blog, checking it most days for updates (particularly after a tough day on the sharemarket).

I just have a quick question regarding SKC. I hold some shares, which make up about 2/5ths of my (rather small) portfolio - as of late, they seem to be doing nothing but falling. Now, I am not one to sell on a whim, but I have been asking myself recently, is SKC something I should stick with?

I bought in at $4.30 and, after the 7 cent drop today, have lost a fair amount of money. Where do you see this stock going in the short to medium term? How about the long term? I've read the newspaper articles, including the ones on your page, that were posted today, but I'm not sure what to make of the situation.

I suppose selling when the price is so low is not really an option, but would love to know what you think as you are also a holder of SKC shares.

My answer was:

Now I don't really recommend what others should be doing with their
shares or investments but I will tell you what I am going to do with
my SKC shares and why and maybe that will give you an idea.

The rider is that your circumstances will be different to mine: the
dollar amount you are talking about will be different, your investment
term might be longer or shorter, you may have held the shares longer
or shorter than me, etc ,etc.

You will have to decide based on those and other conditions.

I have held my 35000 shares for around 6 years and hold them at a cost
of just over 2 bucks a share.

I don't check share prices daily but it sounds like the SP is around
$NZ 3.70 odd as of today. That is the lowest price they have ever been
since 2002 but at one stage mine were worth $70000.00 more at their
high point of around $5.70.

My investment term for shares is a minimum of 10 years, so I'm not
particularly worried about their current share price. Every share is
getting battered.

The current uncertainties re the credit crunch are a concern to me and
I believe shares could drop another 20% easily, so be prepared for
your shares to drop below 3 bucks.

In the long run though, SKC shows some promise.

The new head seems aggressive in his desire to improve business
without buying more businesses and he has the track record in other
casinos to back up his big mouth.

Some fat has been trimmed from operating costs and I believe the
company is ready to bounce back.

The company does have a largish debt burden but has very cheap credit
funding secured for many years.

The only cloud on the horizon is government legislation.

It is a great cash business, a monopoly in most of its markets and a
great hedge in uncertain economic times.

I have no intention of selling, but if you need the money the shares
are not going to improve in value until the credit crunch has blown
over and that is going to take many months to come.

I hope that has been helpful.


In subsequent emails my correspondent continued to fret over the plunging price of his Sky City holding.

I answered that the company will do OK in a recession, with the implication being that other companies will suffer.

Retailing stocks in New Zealand have been especially hard hit. I have held several retail stocks for some years but given plunging stock prices have bought some new retail stocks, as well as other sectors, into the Share Investor Portfolio.

The general point made to my correspondent was that you shouldn't sell your shares unless you really needed to or if there was something significantly wrong with the company you invested in.

The Sky City example makes a good general point. Stocks and investments are losing value currently. There are good reasons why that is the case. A probable global recession brought on by the Sub Prime credit crunch and high oil, interest and food costs will have impacts on company profits. That will not last forever though, so unless you need the money selling is not a good idea.

You invested in a business and businesses have good and bad times. Get used to it.

Investors who sold Sky City over its share price rort will probably be kicking themselves. The capital value of the company has nearly halved since February but the profit guidance made in that month was re affirmed yesterday.

"There's a lot of concern that in this environment there are a lot of companies contemplating earnings downgrades and we wanted to confirm that we weren't," SkyCity chief executive Nigel Morrison said.

Proving that Mr Market has gone overboard in marking this company down.

Sky City isn't recession proof though. Expect it to struggle slightly in the 1 July to 31 Dec half.

Other stocks listed on the NZX have also been oversold in my opinion.

My correspondent didn't sell his Sky City shares shares.

Disc: I own SKC shares in the Share Investor Portfolio


Sky City Convention Centre @ Share Investor

Share Investor discusses Convention Centre proposal with CEO Nigel Morrison
Sky City Convention Centre Expansion a Money Loser: Part Two
Sky City Convention Centre Expansion a Money loser
SKC Convention Centre power-point slide illustrations & SKC submission to Auckland City Council

Sky City Entertainment Group @ Share Investor

Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd: Presentation to Macquarie Group
Morningstar Revalues Sky City Entertainment Group
Guest Post - Michele Hewitson Interview: Nigel Morrison
Failed Sky City bid for Christchurch Casino good news for Shareholders
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd: Christchurch Casino bid falls short of Investment Criteria
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd: Never mind the width feel the volume
Sky City Annual Meeting & 2011 - 2012 Profit Forecast
Stock of the Week: Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
Sky City set to lose National Convention Centre bid
Sky City Entertainment Group: Australian Acquisition on the Cards?
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd: 2010 Full Year Profit Analysis
Sky City Entertainment Group 2010 Full Year Profit Preview
Chart of the Week: Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
Share Investor discusses Convention Centre proposal with CEO Nigel Morrison
Share Investor Q & A: Sky City CEO, Nigel Morrison
Sky City Entertainment: CEO Nigel Morrison discusses 2010 HY
Sky City Convention Centre Expansion a Money Loser: Part Two
Sky City Convention Centre Expansion a Money loser
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd: Download full Company analysis
Sky City 2010 full year profit looking good
Long Term View: Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
Sky City Entertainment: CEO Nigel Morrison discusses 2010 Half Year
Sky City Entertainment Group 2010 Interim Profit Review
Sky City to focus on Gaming
Sky City debts levels now more manageable
Insider Trading on Sky City shares
Sky City Profit Upgrade: Always on the Cards
Sky City's Current Cinema "Boom" a Horror Story in Disguise
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Are Insiders selling Sky City Stock?
Sky City Entertainment 2009 Interim Result Preamble
2008 Sky City profit analysis
Sky City share offer confusing and unfair for smaller shareholders
Sky City Entertainment 2008 Full Year profit results , NZX release, 2008 full year presentation, result briefing webcast, financial statements
Sky City 2008 profit preamble
Sky City outlines a clear future plan
As recession bites Sky City bites back
Sky City Assets: Buy, sell and hold
Why did you buy that stock? [Sky City Entertainment]
Sky City Share Volumes set tongues wagging
Sky City half year exceptional on cost cutting
NZX Press release: Sky City profit to HY end Dec 2007
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c Share Investor 2008

Iraq Yellowcake clouds media judgement

The story below, about the removal of Saddam Hussein's Yellowcake uranium cache from Iraq, only came to my attention after being mentioned on the Leighton Smith show today. Today is the 14th of July but the story is dated 5th July.

The mainstream media have largely ignored it, we haven't seen it on our New Zealand TV screens, even though the likes of John Campbell from TV3 pushed the line constantly that Saddam had no WOMDs and the left salivated rabidly over President Bush's claims that Saddam was a threat to the West and those countries around Iraq. They were wrong dear reader.

Any self respecting media outlet or journalist would have reported this story and if they had a contrary stance before the July reportage, they are duty bound to backtrack, apologise for being wrong and then quit their jobs.

The facts are that sensationalists like John Campbell John Pilgered their way over the whole Iraq WOMD saga, so much so they ignored evidence to the contrary, evidence now uncovered and making its way to Canada to be used legitimately to produce electricity.

Even our Prime Minister, Helen Clark, and her cabinet flunkies got on the WOMD denial bus and are now left without a ticket and a bus running out of control down a really steep hill.

The spin put on the original AP story from some Internet outlets, like the New York Times and lefty hair brained bloggers, simply defies logic.

The evidence is there folks, end of story.

c Political Animal 2008

In a Monday June 9, 2003 file photo, UN inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) work at the nuclear facility in Tuwaitha, Iraq, 50 kms east of Baghdad. The last major remnant of Saddam Hussein's nuclear program _ a huge stockpile of concentrated natural uranium _ reached a Canadian port Saturday, July 5, 2008, to complete a secret U.S. operation that included a two-week airlift from Baghdad and a ship voyage crossing two oceans. (AP Photo/Saurabh Das, file)

AP Exclusive: US removes uranium from Iraq

By BRIAN MURPHY – Jul 5, 2008

The last major remnant of Saddam Hussein's nuclear program — a huge stockpile of concentrated natural uranium — reached a Canadian port Saturday to complete a secret U.S. operation that included a two-week airlift from Baghdad and a ship voyage crossing two oceans.

The removal of 550 metric tons of "yellowcake" — the seed material for higher-grade nuclear enrichment — was a significant step toward closing the books on Saddam's nuclear legacy. It also brought relief to U.S. and Iraqi authorities who had worried the cache would reach insurgents or smugglers crossing to Iran to aid its nuclear ambitions.

What's now left is the final and complicated push to clean up the remaining radioactive debris at the former Tuwaitha nuclear complex about 12 miles south of Baghdad — using teams that include Iraqi experts recently trained in the Chernobyl fallout zone in Ukraine.

"Everyone is very happy to have this safely out of Iraq," said a senior U.S. official who outlined the nearly three-month operation to The Associated Press. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject.

While yellowcake alone is not considered potent enough for a so-called "dirty bomb" — a conventional explosive that disperses radioactive material — it could stir widespread panic if incorporated in a blast. Yellowcake also can be enriched for use in reactors and, at higher levels, nuclear weapons using sophisticated equipment.

The Iraqi government sold the yellowcake to a Canadian uranium producer, Cameco Corp., in a transaction the official described as worth "tens of millions of dollars." A Cameco spokesman, Lyle Krahn, declined to discuss the price, but said the yellowcake will be processed at facilities in Ontario for use in energy-producing reactors.

"We are pleased ... that we have taken (the yellowcake) from a volatile region into a stable area to produce clean electricity," he said.

The deal culminated more than a year of intense diplomatic and military initiatives — kept hushed in fear of ambushes or attacks once the convoys were under way: first carrying 3,500 barrels by road to Baghdad, then on 37 military flights to the Indian Ocean atoll of Diego Garcia and finally aboard a U.S.-flagged ship for a 8,500-mile trip to Montreal.

And, in a symbolic way, the mission linked the current attempts to stabilize Iraq with some of the high-profile claims about Saddam's weapons capabilities in the buildup to the 2003 invasion.

Accusations that Saddam had tried to purchase more yellowcake from the African nation of Niger — and an article by a former U.S. ambassador refuting the claims — led to a wide-ranging probe into Washington leaks that reached high into the Bush administration.

Tuwaitha and an adjacent research facility were well known for decades as the centerpiece of Saddam's nuclear efforts.

Israeli warplanes bombed a reactor project at the site in 1981. Later, U.N. inspectors documented and safeguarded the yellowcake, which had been stored in aging drums and containers since before the 1991 Gulf War. There was no evidence of any yellowcake dating from after 1991, the official said.

U.S. and Iraqi forces have guarded the 23,000-acre site — surrounded by huge sand berms — following a wave of looting after Saddam's fall that included villagers toting away yellowcake storage barrels for use as drinking water cisterns.

Yellowcake is obtained by using various solutions to leach out uranium from raw ore and can have a corn meal-like color and consistency. It poses no severe risk if stored and sealed properly. But exposure carries well-documented health concerns associated with heavy metals such as damage to internal organs, experts say.

"The big problem comes with any inhalation of any of the yellowcake dust," said Doug Brugge, a professor of public health issues at the Tufts University School of Medicine.

Moving the yellowcake faced numerous hurdles.

Diplomats and military leaders first weighed the idea of shipping the yellowcake overland to Kuwait's port on the Persian Gulf. Such a route, however, would pass through Iraq's Shiite heartland and within easy range of extremist factions, including some that Washington claims are aided by Iran. The ship also would need to clear the narrow Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Gulf, where U.S. and Iranian ships often come in close contact.

Kuwaiti authorities, too, were reluctant to open their borders to the shipment despite top-level lobbying from Washington.

An alternative plan took shape: shipping out the yellowcake on cargo planes.

But the yellowcake still needed a final destination. Iraqi government officials sought buyers on the commercial market, where uranium prices spiked at about $120 per pound last year. It's currently selling for about half that. The Cameco deal was reached earlier this year, the official said.

At that point, U.S.-led crews began removing the yellowcake from the Saddam-era containers — some leaking or weakened by corrosion — and reloading the material into about 3,500 secure barrels.

In April, truck convoys started moving the yellowcake from Tuwaitha to Baghdad's international airport, the official said. Then, for two weeks in May, it was ferried in 37 flights to Diego Garcia, a speck of British territory in the Indian Ocean where the U.S. military maintains a base.

On June 3, an American ship left the island for Montreal, said the official, who declined to give further details about the operation.

The yellowcake wasn't the only dangerous item removed from Tuwaitha.

Earlier this year, the military withdrew four devices for controlled radiation exposure from the former nuclear complex. The lead-enclosed irradiation units, used to decontaminate food and other items, contain elements of high radioactivity that could potentially be used in a weapon, according to the official. Their Ottawa-based manufacturer, MDS Nordion, took them back for free, the official said.

The yellowcake was the last major stockpile from Saddam's nuclear efforts, but years of final cleanup is ahead for Tuwaitha and other smaller sites.

The U.N.'s International Atomic Energy Agency plans to offer technical expertise.

Last month, a team of Iraqi nuclear experts completed training in the Ukrainian ghost town of Pripyat, which once housed the Chernobyl workers before the deadly meltdown in 1986, said an IAEA official who spoke on condition of anonymity because the decontamination plan has not yet been publicly announced.

But the job ahead is enormous, complicated by digging out radioactive "hot zones" entombed in concrete during Saddam's rule, said the IAEA official. Last year, an IAEA safety expert, Dennis Reisenweaver, predicted the cleanup could take "many years."

The yellowcake issue also is one of the many troubling footnotes of the war for Washington.

A CIA officer, Valerie Plame, claimed her identity was leaked to journalists to retaliate against her husband, former Ambassador Joe Wilson, who wrote that he had found no evidence to support assertions that Iraq tried to buy additional yellowcake from Niger.

A federal investigation led to the conviction of I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby, Vice President Dick Cheney's chief of staff, on charges of perjury and obstruction of justice.

c Associated Press 2008

Labour gets tangled in Peter's lies

The New Zealand public all know Winston Peters has got where he has today by stretching the truth. For goodness sake he is a lawyer /politician, it is ingrained in him to lie.

The latest truth expansion lies in the big story of the week, Peter's secret donations from Owen Glenn and his denial that he got these donations, after it was revealed in the NZ Herald over the weekend, in leaked emails from NZ First PR man to Owen Glenn, that they keep secret the money given to Peters by Glenn.

Winston Peters is in a very important position in the Labour Government, as Foreign Minister. If the New Zealand public cant get the truth about the Owen Glenn donations to NZ First then we cant trust him on important issues surrounding his position as part of the Labour Government.

Helen Clark's position is a tenuous one at best. Her party relies upon support from NZ First to stay in power. If one of her "insiders", in Peter's, has an issue over honesty, then what remains of her integrity(sorry to use the "I" word) is sorely stretched to breaking point.

Now we have seen the Prime Minister lie many times before, after all she has made it the centre piece of her Labour Party administration for the last 9 years. To allow Peters to drift in the wind(to Fiji this week) over the secret donations made to NZ First by Owen Glenn simply smacks of hypocrisy and is morally corrupt at best.

Considering Ms Clark and her Party passed their Electoral Finance Act last year to stop what they said were secret large foreign money donations "buying elections" then Clark must make her move on the top poddle and its party.

Clark does have a wee problem on the Glenn front though. Their Party accepted donations from him before and after the 2005 election and their party president Mike Williams lied about it earlier this year.

We deserve the truth from our Prime Minister and Winston Peters. We are simply not getting it.

Related Political Animal Reading

Leaked Glenn Email
Winston got secret donations from Owen Glenn
Labour Party Election funding murky at best
Electoral Finance Bill: The purpose is clear
The Owen Glenn Story: Singing the same tune but hitting a bum note

c Political Animal 2008