New Zealand Stockmarket bull run: 2011

In a favourite movie of mine from 1987, Wall Street, staring Micheal Douglas as "Gordon Gekko" and Charlie Sheen as "Bud Fox", Gekko has a line in the film that goes something like, "money never sleeps", but you would have to add a rider to that, "except on the New Zealand stockmarket".

Gordon Gekko in Wall Street.

I am being a little bit mean because investors on the NZX have done well over recent years but while most overseas stockmarkets surpassed the giddy heights they reached in the 1980s and recovered after the 87 "crash" our market hasn't even got close to those halcyon days.

Well, apparently there is talk of resurrecting Gordo in a sequel to Wall Street and I believe while many foreign viewers may see the sequel with some sort of nostalgia most kiwis from around their mid 40s upwards will see will see the movie as some sort of horror flick, reminding them of past failure and lost fortunes.

I am constantly hearing from people in this age group when I broach the subject of investing, tell me that the stockmarket is "like a casino" "too risky" and full of criminals and charlatans. Well they maybe partly right on the last count but the sharemarket is a totally different story today.

Companies are largely valued on profit, prospects and management and those terms were mostly not applied to investing during the reign of the Gekkos in the 1980s.

I am 42 and wasn't invested in the sharemarket back then and my only real memory of it was talk around the Wall Street movie and the economy softening and that is where today's piece finally gets to its point.

Sorry about the verbal diarrhea!

While talking with my elders and, ask them what they do with their money(ironically those that lost money in '87 also seemed to have done their dough in finance company collapses, I see a pattern forming here) inevitably evokes the woes they faced with the sharemarket in 1987, I believe that this bogey is going to be laid to rest, given time.

People my own age are investing in companies listed on the NZX and those younger than I are doing similar. Those that were born the year Wall Street came out will only have knowledge of the market collapse from the same year in books or if they are interested specifically in the subject, so I believe the New Zealand stockmarket is in for an exceptionally good run when these younger investors come of age and start investing in the sharemarket as they hit their late 20s, early 30s.

The bull run could come even earlier should those of my own age stop listening to their parents advice and stop pouring dead money in home ownership.

Much of New Zealand's housing "boom" over the last 20 years has been fueled by those risk adverse baby boomers who got their wallets suctioned when they "invested" in companies back in the 1980s that didn't actually make any money, and we can still hear the collective moan from many of them today.

Like investing has always been, there is risk, but that risk is tempered by proper research into what you are buying and quite frankly those that invested in the "paper companies" around in the 1980s shouldn't blame the stockmarket. They should blame their own stupidity, greed, lack of research and understanding of what it is they were buying.

Those that remember Wall Street will also remember and maybe ponder its most famous monologue, when Gekko proclaims:

The point is, ladies and gentlemen, that: Greed, for lack of a better word, is good. Greed is right; greed works. Greed clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit. Greed, in all of its forms, greed for life, for money, for love, knowledge — has marked the upward surge of mankind and greed, you mark my words — will not only save Teldar Paper but that other malfunctioning corporation called the USA.

While there is nothing wrong with a little greed in our lives, those that harbour animosity to this day, to the Gordon Geckos that may have cost them a fortune, would do well to remember it was their own unbridled greed that led them along the path to financial disaster.

Just let it go and start investing in the stockmarket again and save us the lectures about '87.


Related Share Investor reading

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c Share Investor 2008

Share Investor Friday Free for all: Edition 9

Airport lands big numbers in 2011



Auckland Airport

News today that Auckland Airport(AIA) is going to plunk down a huge NZ$180 million to expand the international terminal to coincide with the 2011 Rugby World Cup-the year we get the cup back,yeah right-means that the company clearly needs to borrow more or has a partner with deep pockets.

The extension will almost completely revamp the entire terminal and mean extra revenue streams through extended retail, car parking and the like.

No more news about the Canadian Pension Fund takeover yet but an extension such as this could make any possible sale more palatable given that Manukau and Auckland City Councils are shareholders and would want the airport to cope with all those South Africans springboking over here in 2011.

Long-term, Auckland Airport looks good for growth and shareholders would be much better off holding on to their shares.


Sky City Folds


Auckland Sky Tower,
just above the Casino


I'm not sure about you but the Sky City Entertainment(SKC) Annual meeting today left me none the wiser.

Recent profit guidance's were confirmed, much was made of the revamp of Auckland Casinos main floor and the usual blah.

Of more concern was news that the Adelaide Casino sale process was on hold and shareholders wont find out whether the company is going to be bought until the end of November.

We were told not so long ago that we would find out at the end of October and that Adelaide would still be on the block.

Now there is talk of revamping Adelaide in a similar way to the Auckland Casino because they know they can get it right, after years of getting it wrong and this is a turnaround from a few months back where management were "identifying assets to sell" and Adelaide was a prime candidate.

You would have to ask what has changed?

At least management have confirmed that the Cinema division is still on the block and we will know what for at the end of October.


Contact has Gas



Contact Energy Geothermal Plant

Contact Energy(CEN) also got together for an annual meeting today. The biggest subject on the agenda, the appointment of some directors, particularly little Timmy Saunders, who was a director of failed Feltex Carpets.

Like all boards, Contacts board is supposed to be made up of independent directors but Tim Saunders allegiances lie with Origin Energy, the majority Aussie owner of Contact.

Institutions want Saunders removed because of his involvement with the Feltex collapse and his twice advocating a bungling a sale of Contact, that cost the company millions but Origin want him to stay to keep them primed for another attempt at a takeover.


NZX up in the Charts


Mark Weldon

Stock Exchange operator NZX today reported a 49 per cent lift in third quarter net profit after tax to $NZ2.3 million.

The company said the lift in net profit for the three months to the end of September from $1.5m in the third quarter of 2006, was achieved on operating revenue up 34 per cent to $8m.

We have seen a dearth of listings this year, unless you count spectacular failures like Burger Fuel(BFW) and Xero(XRO), a number of companies have been swallowed up and a high number of the larger blue chips look set to go as well, with The Warehouse(WHS) Auckland Airport(AIA) and Sky City Entertainment(SKC) under the cloud of a sale process.

Weldon said that he looked forward to more quality listing in 2008, with a number of private equity owners looking to sell down.

One he mentioned was the owner of Griffins and Tegal, Pacific Equity Partners.


NZX Market Wrap

A slide to one-month lows for top stocks Telecom(TEL) and Contact Energy(CEN) depressed the New Zealand sharemarket today, in contrast to solid gains for markets around the region.

The NZSX-50 benchmark index closed down 40.43 points, or 0.9 per cent, at 4226.71, on turnover totalling just $88 million. Falls outnumbered rises 62 to 40.

"Our market bucked the trend really. We were down, but mainly around company-specific news like Contact," said Philip Hunter of First NZ Capital.

Telecom fell 11c, or 2.5 per cent, to a month low of $NZ4.31 after announcing an undertaking to have fast broadband to every town in the country within four years. Telecom will spend $1.4 billion on its next generation network and fast broadband over five years.

Contact Energy fell 19c, or 2 per cent, to $9.05 after it told shareholders that earnings would be flat, as the company battled high gas prices and low wholesale power prices.

"They just reiterated that the environment was going to be a bit tougher this year, so the market took that as a cue to just bring the stock price back a bit," Mr Hunter said.

Sky City(SKC) was down 2c to $5.40 after it said it was quitting the sale of its Adelaide casino while bidders sized the company up. It said it was comfortable with its August projection of a 10-12 per cent increase in profit in fiscal 2008.

NZX jumped 19c to $9.50 after it reported a 49 per cent rise in third quarter net profit to $2.29m.

Mainfreight(MFT) rose 8c to $7.40, continuing a strong run recently, (FRE)Freightways lost a cent to $3.79.

The general tone is that the domestic economy is getting a little bit tougher, costs are coming up a bit and margins are getting squeezed."

Auckland Airport(AIA) fell 5c to 306, Fisher & Paykel Healthcare(FPH) was flat at $3.28, F&P Appliances(FPA) shed 12c to $3.45, and NZ Refining(NZR) fell 15c at $7.41.

Air New Zealand(AIR) was down 2c at $2.12, Rakon(RAK) was 9c lower at $5.26, Pumpkin Patch(PPL) fell 3c to $3.05, and Fletcher Building(FBU) was off 8c at $12.18. Fletchers has dropped markedly this week over market worries related to a possible takeover by the company of Carter Holt.

Ryman(RYM) gained 4c to $2.15, Tourism Holdings(THL) was up 4c at $2.36, Nuplex(NPX) gained 8c to $7.58.

NZPA & Share Investor

NZ Dollar Wrap

Reuters currency rates:

4.30 today 5pm yesterday(NZ Time)

NZ dlr/US dlr US76.38c US75.36c
NZ dlr/Aust dlr A83.89c A83.47c
NZ dlr/euro 0.5334 0.5281
NZ dlr/yen 87.30 86.95
NZ dlr/stg 37.22p 36.81p
NZ TWI 71.03 70.24
Australian dollar US91.03c US90.28c
Euro/US dollar 1.4322 1.4269
US dollar/yen 114.28 114.07

Disclosure: I own SKC, AIA shares

C Share Investor 2007

It was 20 years ago Tomorrow

No not Sergeant Peppers Band but the Great Stock Market Meltdown of 1987.

I didn't follow the Stockmarket 20 years ago. I vaguely recall a news incident at the time but didn't equate it with anything serious.

I was living in Sydney at the time, so the fallout from it wasn't as bad as it was apparently in New Zealand.

My introduction to the Stockmarket came almost exactly 10 years later, when I bought shares in the fast food operator Restaurant Brands Ltd [RBD.NZ]

Since then I have taken a great deal of interest in equities and my 10 years invested in it has taught me much.

Investing in the NZX has given me an appreciation of business, how fear and greed work in financial markets and most of all made money for me.

The biggest lesson that I have learnt is from losing money in a couple of stocks. That hasn't dulled my obsession with the market though.



Craig Heatley (left), and Allan Hawkins
after Rainbow Corporation lists on
the Stock Exchange in the mid 1980s


Unlike some who lost their shirts and more back in 1987 my loss wasn't very large and thousands of Kiwi investors haven't forgotten those heady days and wouldn't touch the sharemarket with a barge poll today.

The New Zealand Sharemarket was one of the worst affected back in 1987 and still hasn't recovered from the hit that it took. Most other global markets have multiplied their values many times in the last 20 years. The US market is now worth more than 5 times what it was worth all those years ago.

True, the NZ Stockmarket is a much more stable and regulated market than it was back in those wild west days but there are still some negative elements that linger today, most notably the insider trading that is done by NZX sanctioned broker firms and management of its listed companies.

Lets hope for a more positive next 20 years. NZX's Mark Weldon is doing a good job so if he straightens the rest of the markets kinks out then we might get somewhere.


Related Share Investor Reading

New Zealand Stockmarket: A History from beginning to present day.
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Dividends in detail



From Fishpond.co.nz - Buy Toughen Up: What I've Learned About Surviving Tough Times



Toughen Up - Fishpond.co.nz


c Share Investor 2007

NZX Share Trades with Strings Attached

While trying to put a market order in today on the NZAX for Burger Fuel (BFW) it appears an individual cannot make his own mind up just what the market price for a particular share is on a given day.

I wasn't fully aware of this, only just in passing but for shares trading between 10c - $1 you have to bid a minimum of .7 multiplied by the closing price of the share on the previous day. Shares above $1 are multiplied by .8 , shares between 5-10c .6 and below 5c .5.

This little market manipulator came into force early July 2007 and really pumps my blood warmer than a ten year old relieving himself in a public pool on a cold Winters day!

I mean where do Mark Weldon and co get off, it is a Market Limit , what that means to this capitalist pig is that the market is supposed to decide what a share or company is worth on a given day, prospective shareholders are the market and it should be up to us to decide what value we place on a company.

I can understand why this little handbrake may have been applied-to stop a market from sliding too quickly on a bad trading day-but surely this kind of market manipulation must be open to all sorts of jiggery-pokery?

I'm quite sure the upper offer market limits are not enforced similarly so why the hell do weak companies need their hands held as their share prices get hammered on any given day?

Quite frankly they don't and Mark Weldon and the NZX board would be wise to take another look at this recent hamstringing of a so-called free share market and let the market decide what New Zealand listed companies are worth.

Incidentally, I wanted to bid $NZ .20c for 5000 BFW shares as the share price as of today has fallen almost 15% to .65c today. I have lowered my value of the company as I see further costs related to increased borrowing for the company and possible franchisees having an affect on medium term growth, expansion and obviously profit.


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Discuss Burger Fuel @ Share Investor Forum




c Share Investor 2007

Take an Investment tip from New Zealand's NZX

The favourite topic for us investor hounds and writers of the moment is the weakening global share markets.

New Zealand is always first to react on Monday after the previous Fridays close on Wall Street.

React it did today by falling almost 40 points or 1%. Already down sharply on Friday 10 August New Zealand time our market takes the lead and has no other influence until Australia's ASX opens 12 Noon NZ time.

Today the ASX lead its own way up, Asian Markets followed somewhat and it will be interesting to see what Wall Street does New York time Monday morning 13 August.

The thrust of this piece is really that if you look to the New Zealand market, the NZX, we really have an advantage because when world markets close during our morning hours we have a chance to digest the figures from other regions , make a decision and act upon it when our share market gets going at 10.00am. Perhaps then making more rational and considered decisions instead of the spur of the moment stuff that international bourses tend to respond to.

Of course very few international investors know that New Zealand even has a share market but if they did they would find it an advantage to follow what is going on down here in the respect of investor sentiment in a region that is first to open.

Clearly the NZX doesn't have economic impact but international market watchers need all the information and advantage they can when looking at the impact their own portfolios could have and behave when their markets open the following day.


Recommended Fishpond Reading



Buy The Intelligent Investor & more @ Fishpond.co.nz




c Share Investor 2007

But wait there’s more: How I’m learning to love Kiwisaver

For selfish reasons, I have been thinking lately. What I have been mulling over is Kiwisaver and its relation to the NZX and what it might mean for its future. The stocks in my portfolio and yours are going to benefit.

Let’s get this straight, I am dead against Kiwisaver. It is compulsory, inefficient, costly, enormously complex, will have low returns for its participants and is damaging for business.

The big winners will be the Kiwisaver providers, the IRD, who have hired 400 more drones and other government lackeys and the recipients of our largess.

The NZX could be the big winner if overseas experience has anything to go by.

The US and most recently the Australian stock market have benefited greatly from the retirement schemes that run in both those countries. The companies on those countries listed indexes have performed consistently better than our listed companies simply because of the large amount of retirement money sloshing around with no place to go but investment.

True, a lot of retirement funds will be inefficiently filtered through fund managers before reaching the NZX and much of the Kiwisaver proceeds will go offshore to other exchanges but there will clearly be billions going into our stock market.

In the USA their 401ks have helped push stock fundamentals to levels above the Kiwi NZX and in Australia multiples are similarly higher.

The extent of many countries super funds and its contributions to their local economies cannot be understated but as these funds have gotten bigger they have even stretched their economic tentacles abroad, US funds through private equity have bought companies in Australia and New Zealand and other countries while Australian funds have bought up large in New Zealand. The biggest retirement money buyout in New Zealand being the Canadian teachers fund buyout of Telecom New Zealand Ltd [TEL.NZ] Yellow Pages for over $2 million NZ dollars.

How long it will take for the New Zealand super funds proceeds to have an effect on our market depends on the uptake of Kiwisaver by its citizens of course and the impact will also depend on whether Kiwis who start a new job opt out of the conservative 6 providers that are the default ones and whether current employees decide to open themselves up for more risk and more return by going with a provider such as Fisher Funds which is likely to focus on the NZX and ASX and its smaller growth companies.

Certainly there is already evidence that these types of funds have had an impact on our market. Government and quasi Government institutions through agencies such as the ACC and the Government super fund for state employees have helped bolster our market and its listed companies. Mostly the blue chips but also a few middle to smaller cap stocks have been targeted by these funds.

Our market has mostly been a disappointment over the years compared to foreign bourses and the absence, up till now, of retirement funds bolstering the NZX will put our market on more of an even footing, help stimulate IPO’s and channel funds away from the over inflated and the tax friendly property market.

Even though our market has done well over the last few years don’t imagine that it is overvalued as a whole. When you include the extra funds from retirement money that are to come on-stream over the coming years you could be forgiven for doing cartwheels if you are already in the market at the prospects of fund managers pouring mum and dads money into the NZX.

Kiwisaver isn’t a perfect tool or even close to a perfect tool for helping kiwis save retirement money, tax cuts would be a far better and cheaper solution and then we could put those funds directly where we like.

Having said that there are always winners and losers when it comes to Governments meddling in its citizens business and for those that are already invested in the NZX and its fund managers of course, they are the big gainers.


Kiwisaver @ Share Investor

Kiwisaver mediocre substitute for real saving





c Share Investor 2007

Burger Fuel IPO: Burger Fool?

There are many things that are still unclear in the manifold press releases regarding the Burger Fuel IPO.

I understood the 15M from the IPO was for expansion of outlets but then the IPO according to some, is about the royalty revenue from franchising the Burger Fuel concept.

The figures given in the press releases(I havent read the prospectus as I cant seem to download it from the BF website) seem to stress the 3M odd income and 250,000 odd loss for the last 9 months or so.

One might imagine then that BF may want to open some company owned stores with the 15M. Lets face it, to fit out, train staff, leases and the like to start one of those stores is well north of half a mil, so you aint going to get more than 20 stores for that 15M IPO moola.

There is also that key comment that initial shareholders will have the right to buy shares at $1 again in the next 18 months or so.

Another factor is that public holders only get 25% of the action, so that 3M odd revenue mentioned is less than a million for the likes of you and me.

The real money for this company will be in growing the franchise model. As we have seen in New Zealand Restaurant Brands(RBD) is the poorer cousin to its big daddy YUM! the franchisor.

Having said that though, even if BF grew revenue to 500M (picked high just to prove a point) the typical royalty rate of around 8% of the gross would give 40M in gross revenue for the Burger Fuel Franchisor. Only 25% of that 40M revenue would be available to distribute to public shareholders. After tax and costs less than 10M in profit is available as profit to minority shareholders.

Much has been made of the "brand strength" and the "loyalty" of Burger Fuels' customers but this is typical of niche players in the fast food industry. Once size and scale are increased, this loyalty often wanes as the company culture cant help but change as it grows.

An important understatement by BF management in announcing this IPO is the amount of competition that they face in this sector. New Zealand has some competition but in markets like Sydney, where they have one store, there are several many similar to BF. One also must remember, having success in a market like Sydney is no gaurantee that it is going to work further afield.

It appears that management want to grow this business quicker than they have been and one must ask why, if the business is that good, why they wouldnt get a bank or private equity crew on board to get a little larger, prove their concept has scalabilty, then come out of the closet for some public funds, for goodness sake they are still holding 75% of the company!!

The lesser disclosure requirements due to a listing on the NZAX ,coupled with the bulk of the company still being management owned, mean that human nature, as it is ,favours the dominant player in this scenario and that means the majority of the power and future gain, if any, will be in the hands of those at the top of the tree. Fine if you have full disclosure but here we dont.

The recent Blackstone IPO in the United States is a similar scenario to this one. Public participants hold a minority of shares and management will continue to run the company just like a private one. Both will only want to know you if they want more capital.

Like any investment, before you consider plunking down your hard earned dollars on this one, take a good long read of the Burger Fuel prospectus, then forget it and read the overwhelming negative comment being made about this IPO. If you are still interested after that and are prepared to take a huge risk, go ahead.

It is possible, if you really want to buy Burger Fuel shares, that the SP will adjust to below the IPO price of $1 once the hype of the IPO is over and the reality of the deal sets into the market.

Don't plunk down more than you can afford to lose.



Burger Fuel Worldwide @ Share Investor

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Discuss BFW @ Share Investor Forum - Register free
Download BFW Company Reports



c Share Investor 2007

Sky City CEO resigns

Sky City Entertainment Group Limited (NS) SKC 25 Jun, 2007, 09:40 OFFICE SKYCITY Managing Director to Stand Down

Full Text of Announcement

The Board of Directors of SKYCITY Entertainment Group Limited announced today that Evan Davies will stand down as Managing Director and a director of the company effective immediately.

SKYCITY Entertainment Group Chairman Rod McGeoch recognised the leadership of Evan Davies over the last eleven years.

"Evan Davies' vision for SKYCITY has played a pivotal role in the development of this business. It has seen the company grow from a single site in Auckland to a truly diversified trans-Tasman entertainment company. This has allowed us to maximise SKYCITY's scale, assets and brand. He has delivered market leadership, market reach and market brand which provide a sound base for future growth," said Mr McGeoch.

Mr Davies said "In the last eleven years SKYCITY has grown to a business with a market capitalisation of around $2 billion. Without doubt the last 12-18 months have been challenging. However, in my view the initiatives announced to the market on May 22 will ensure SKYCITY is positioned for long term sustainable growth to deliver shareholder value".

Mr McGeoch said a search for the new Managing Director would begin immediately and candidates would be sought from New Zealand, Australia and globally.

"In the interim, director Elmar Toime will step into the role of Executive Director." Formerly Chief Executive Officer of New Zealand Post, and credited with leading New Zealand Post through its transformation into one of the top rated postal services internationally, Elmar will be based in Auckland to undertake the interim Executive Director position.

"Elmar's extensive international experience at both management and board level will provide the company with sound guidance while the global search is undertaken."

Mr McGeoch said the board and management of the company remain committed to delivering on the restructuring and operational initiatives designed to increase revenues, reduce costs and maximise margins to improve underlying business growth, particularly in Auckland.

An update on the search and on developments in the business will be given at the annual result announcement on August 20th.


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Burger Fuel IPO: Dont buy...yet.

The upcoming BurgerFuel Worldwide [BFW.NZ] IPO poses some interesting questions.

They are asking for 15M for a 25% of the company and value the whole shooting match at 60M. That is steep for a company with only 3M sales and a 250,000 loss.

20 outlets makes the unit sales an average of around $150,000 turnover a unit. Not good at all. You should be looking for at least $500,000 a unit for an outlet like that.

The 15M raised is going to be used on expansion and there is of course the possibility that the majority owners will want continuing cash inputs to keep growing.

I think at $1 a share you could pick up this puppy for less than that once we see continued losses mount.

There is alot of competition in this sector, in NZ and abroad, where BF intend to do business.

Having said that, the long-term future of the company could be worth a punt but I have reservations. I like companies to be making profits from day one and for expansion to be funded from profit.

I would avoid at this stage.

I wont be buying at the IPO, perhaps later.


See press release below

Burger Fuel looks for extra capital filling
NBR staff

Josef Roberts & Chris Mason

Fast-food franchise BurgerFuel is set to list on the NZAX and is looking to raise $15 million in capital.

The company is issuing 15 million shares at $1 each, with the option of purchasing additional shares at the same price in 18-months time.

The issue values the whole company at $60 million with public shareholders owning 26.7 per cent.

The remaining shares will held by staff, associate directors and the promoters of the offer, as well as the founder and managing director of the company Chris Mason and Executive Director, Josef Roberts.

Both Chris Mason and Josef Roberts have entered into stand-still agreements running for 12 months in respect of their shares.

The funds will be used to fund expansion into Australia, Europe and the US. At present, BurgerFuel has 19 outlets in New Zealand, and one in Sydney.

Prospectuses can be viewed at www.burgerfuel.com/shares

The company says it is taking an innovative and irreverent approach to capital raising, including a provision for 70,000 of its "VIB members" ("Very Important Burger Connoisseurs") to get the first chance to purchase shares.



Burger Fuel Worldwide @ Share Investor

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Analysis - Burger Fuel Worldwide: FY profit to 31/03/09
Burger Fuel: Running on Empty
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Exclusive Interview with Burger Fuel's Josef Roberts
Burger Fuel's Daytime drama
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Director explains share price drop
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Discuss BFW @ Share Investor Forum - Register free




c Share Investor 2007