Saturday, July 9, 2016

New Zealand's House Price Crash: It Will Happen

I'm going to do something I don't usually do here.

I'm going to give you some advice that you should take.

If you are thinking of buying a house any time soon for reasons to put your family in a cosy little place for a long time - think again.

If you are an investor or speculator, ill talk to you latter.


Just look around everyone is talking about it and writing about it, Fran O'Sullivan is practically chomping at the bit this week with at least 3 pieces of writing out about the "housing crises".

On Friday Stuff followed a house for a day - and kind of had a ode to the house, they had John Key on the grill answering live questions in a special q and a thingy - and by the end of the day when it was sold we found out it "made" something like 350 bucks in a day.

Last weekend the Herald papers were filled with stories of this quirky little place - just shy of 75sqm - was passed in at $950,000 but latter on in the day were were given an update and guess what it sold - it was probably well over $1,000,000 and the other extreme the "Chrisco House" in Albany, where I am, probably went for well over $40 million.

In amongst that a "house" in Papakura was selling for half a million - this was a box not much bigger than my 40sqm place.

Stories like these.

Politicians are talking (that's ALL they do instead of staying out of our way) about it - almost all of them opposition.

In fact the leader of Labour Andrew Little is going to announce something "momentous" on Sunday to coincide with their 100th anniversary - something to do with housing and tax but you can bet that it will involve your money and that it wont "work".

Building State houses was something that Labour did in the 1930's 1950's 1970's it didn't work then and it won't now.

The Key Govt are being pressured to do something but their hands are really tied because of the oppositions resistance to the removal of size restrictions of Auckland - they are opposed against letting it grow hence the rocketing prices.

If you are an investor your probably sane or savvy enough to be avoiding the market at the moment.

You'll come back to the market when prices ease.

If you are indeed a specman that's a different story. All credit to you your trading an asset to make a quick buck, i'm with you there, on the other hand if you lose money i couldn't give a flying fuck.

And both you and me, well you reading this because i'm not going to get into the market, yet, are kind of stuck in this non stop world of turn on the TV, screen, whatever, see what the latest story on such and such a house and get caught up in the idea that something i bought for $1 or $1 million - a house - is going to keep increasing in price.

It just simply isn't.

He or she will simply say no, eventually.

Prices will crash, it is going to happen.

Its just a matter of when.

Whether its a new political party being elected, like  The Greens/Labour and you get the current immigrants inbound to go outbound or the Reserve Bank does something your going to get a reversal of the current "problem".

The point is are you ready for all this, because no matter what talking head or "expert" on property - or that vacuous woman on the Paul Henry Show, Nikki Connors will tell you.

Its your money and you deserve to have it spent wisely, now is not the time to be doing it.

Buy when things are cheaper, they will come down in price, its happened before in history and those who don't learn from their history are doomed to repeat it.

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c Share Investor 2016

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