Friday, July 15, 2016

Why You Should Stay Away From Stocks Right Now

To answer my question in the title, because they're bloody expensive, way over priced and there's far better value, especially if your funds are substantial, in parking your funds in a "safe place" - in cash in New Zealand.

But that's the thing, apart from cash, and you saw my piece written about property last week , which by the way could relate to commercial property as well, there is no other place that funds are now going.

And one does not know how big this latest investment bubble will go until it bursts but you can expect them to continue for a few years yet, as the struggles in China intensify, Europe breaks up over Brexit, Japan starts to look like a giant helicopter, the rest of Asia struggles along and the rest of this world in Australia and New Zealand move along at a modest pace.

The DOW is at record levels and has gone up 5 days in a row now - stocks are at VERY high PE multiples and there is so much risk built in BUT the stock market continues to climb and is likely to until we get a significant number of interest rate hikes - Janet Yellen ought to just make a decision instead of wondering what she might do will have an effect in London or Anchorage Alaska.

As well debt levels are starting to get scary: 
"The United States is less than two decades away from exceeding its highest recorded level of federal debt, according to the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
The CBO projects that U.S. federal debt will pass 106 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) by 2035, in its second long-term budget outlook report of 2016. That level was recorded once before, in 1946, shortly after World War II.
The current federal debt is worth 75 percent of the country's GDP. It's expected to reach 86 percent by 2026, and 141 percent by 2046." The Hill
Debt is likely another story back here, with latest figures showing NZrs as a whole owing $255 billion overseas and the Govt roughly $247 billion. Trading Economics 

Surely we should get on top of this pile while we can.

Simply stop buying houses - because that is where it is going.

Until then, here in New Zealand we are likely to see stock markets climb to maybe 10000 by this time next year as people, and increasingly foreign money finds a place (saw a chap on Bloomberg yesterday mention New Zealand and Australia with the highest returns and a place where he would park money for the foreseeable future.) to put their moola.

I agree.

But watch out, eventually you will see the music stop and you might be left holding the parcel - and it might contain.


Share Investors Portfolio @ 15 July 2016

Security Analysis: Sixth Edition, Foreword by Warren Buffett (Security Analysis Prior Editions)Security Analysis: Sixth Edition, Foreword by Warren Buffett (Security Analysis Prior Editions) by Benjamin Graham
Buy new: $43.02 / Used from: $29.90
Usually ships in 24 hours

No comments:

Post a Comment

Comment on Share Investor Stuff