Thursday, February 5, 2009

Piece by piece, Nanny State is being dismantled

The removal by National of the Labour Party requirement for schools to be the food police is poetry to the ears and sending exactly the right message to pupils, teachers and parents.

Hopefully it is just the beginning of the end for the nanny state Labour so carefully engineered for us over the last 9 years.

It is the right and responsibility of the parents to give their children the right food, not lefty pollies, some of whom are too fat to move, let alone rub two braincells together in order to figure out that they are not surrogate parents to every man woman and child in our country.

This is the kind of warped thinking that the left specialise in: piece

Ms Kedgley said that arguing the children would still buy the products elsewhere was "a nonsense".

"Teenagers can buy cigarettes at the local dairy, but that doesn't mean we should allow them to sell them at school. NZ Herald.co.nz

A pie is hardly a cigarette Sue.

Bugger off, crawl into a sow crate and look after your own family, mine is fine.


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Wednesday, February 4, 2009

Labour's Legacy Lingers like a Lefty Leper

From the 2 billion in the hole that they left the ACC in, toady's power cuts -and more to come -from under investing in infrastructure, profligate spending by Government departments, tortured dead babies and a whole host of other crimes and not so mis-demeanour's, they just keep re-surfacing like that bad smell in the car that you just cant find.

Their regular law-breaking is another story.

Labour's mistakes are set to haunt us for a while yet.

While we haven't yet seen the worst of their last nine years surface, moves by the National Government so far have been in a good positive direction and will return some commonsense and positive direction for New Zealanders.

National Ministers who have already cut back on wasteful spending, administered failing schools and sacked useless health mangers have done well and sent the right message to the public-we ain't gonna waste your money-lets hope they continue.

Nice change.

Part of the stimulus package out today that gives tax breaks for business and yesterdays relaxing of the officious RMA law (a law that stopped power sector development) are a good start.

More careful planning is being done to tackle the current global recession and the economic mess that Labour left behind and calls by Phil Goff to spin meaningless rushed babble in the media to calm the masses is highly irresponsible-remember loose Labour talk on Telecom and Auckland Airport losing stockholders money?

Economic policy at this time must be planned well and targeted in the right way.

Spraying taxpayer cash around hoping that some of it sticks is no longer an option.

The rescue package rushed through Congress last year didn't work because it wasn't thought through carefully.

National is moving fast to obliterate the last 9 years of waste, lies, criminal behavior and plain arrogance and I have never seen a government move so rapidly before.

Lets hope they can make Labours last 3 terms a distant memory.

Good on ya Johnny.


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c Political Animal 2009


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Mark Weldon now in two minds about Carbon Trading

The announcement last week by Mark Weldon, CEO of the NZX, that they are going to sell their flash new carbon trading registry business TZ1 Registry to Markit, a global financial information services company, leaves the financial world more than just a little perplexed.

Mark has been banging on about his registry and how much potential for business and I guess profit that this new registry will have.

Then why sell the golden goose?

That is where Weldon either becomes the cleverest man in the world for flogging off this dead horse to a poor sucker, in this case Markit, or the biggest hypocrite New Zealand business has ever seen for turning his back on a growth opportunity akin to the second coming of the tulip bulb craze of the 1600s.

Most sensible people know that this carbon trading lark is based on a lie and eventually it will all come crashing down on itself and that is where Mark becomes a clever little bastard-ditching a no-hoper before it becomes a worthless millstone .

Payment will be made in Markit shares, currently worth around $NZ 60 million, so unfortunately this exposes the NZX to losses further down the line when carbon trading fails.

Lets hope Mark will be smart enough to see that coming and jump ship before that happens.

Mark Weldon's hypocrisy is clearly evident because he has fully backed this TZ1 carbon trading venture with all the rhetoric, pomp and circumstance and the so-called "science" that backs it up and is now leaving the registry services part of it behind.

NZX is left with the relatively insignificant TZ1 carbon trading division.

Prospective and current investors in the New Zealand Stock Exchange [NZX.NZ] will be left wondering, does Mark Weldon believe in the carbon trading business or is he just taking advantage of the ignorant and blind?

Lets hope it is the latter.


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Monday, February 2, 2009

Dipshit of the week: Bob Harvey

In this first of a series we take a look at those individuals whose achievements(or lack thereof) might score themselves a first place in the Darwin awards.

In this first instalment we look at that useless smelly pile of ratepayer sucking, evil lefty dung-hole, Mayor of Westieland, one Bob Harvey.

Apart from his whole career at his local council sucking on the ratepayer tit and spending rate money like a drunken gay sailor on "P" Bobby has lately been making a name for himself by spending millions on a failed attempt at an airport that nobody wanted, on the North Shore of Auckland, swimming naked for a dare and cooking bacon while drying salami on his teenie tiny wiener (I made the last part up).

The reason why this black hole gets the dip shit of the week award is that he thinks his achievements rate him another handsome pay rise this year:

"I consider myself grossly underpaid for the work I do 24 hours, seven days a week," he says.

"MPs get a lifetime pension when they retire, yet when I finish I won’t get a thing, even though I’ve done 16 years in local government. It’s grossly unfair." stuff.co.nz

The fact that the world is in a financial crises seems to have passed him by but it is probably no surprise to most because he would have to get his head out of his arse to see what was going on in the real world.

Furthermore this evil, greedy little lefty doesn't think his massive growing staff at the council should limit their salaries this year like we are all having to.

Its "grossly unfair"?

Yes it is, Waitakere ratepayers should get their money back.

Congratulations Bob, you are the inaugural Political Animal Dip shit of the week.


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Short-sighted critics of Warren Buffett wrong

There has been alot of criticism of Warren Buffett and his recent spending spree over the last 4 months or so and how that (so far) hasn't paid off.

One person in particular, Doug Kass, has said that Buffett's strategy is stale and This is the end of Warren .

Now Doug Kass has money riding on this by short-selling. He has bet that stocks will go down from here-and he is probably right-while Buffett has been buying up large for the long-term shot.

Everything from Burlington Northern Railways, BYD Auto, Goldman Sachs , General Electric and many more in between, Warren Buffett has been like a kid in one of his See's candy stores with 90% off the prices.

Now I am probably the wrong person to read if you wanted to read unbiased stuff about Warren Buffetts "buy good stocks for a good price and hold forever" strategy but I happen to agree with the great investor and follow that strategy as well-my portfolio is similarly down, well...duh!

Where I think Kass and other critics of Buffett have been shortsighted-and the word shortsighted is the key here-is that they haven't given Buffett's big bets a time to play out-the fact that Buffett has a long-term view seems to have completely escaped the critics!

Buffett's big spending spree began earlier in 2008 when he made deals related to the Mars/Wrigley Merger, the Anheuser-Busch/Inbev marriage and increases in his Kraft shareholdings, then continued past the September 2008 stockmarket meltdown when he made the quite audacious statement to anyone who would listen, in an Op-ed piece that he wrote in the New York Times, to "buy American" stocks, because he thought they were "cheap".

So far this has affected Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway stock price and his other company holdings in a serious way, he has lost billions in wealth as a result and all in a very short time-frame.

But, and it is a big but, Warren Buffett has faced similar stockmarket and economic meltdowns before, bet huge sums while stocks were affected by these meltdowns and always managed to come out smelling of roses and manifold more times wealthier.

After a 5 year absence from the stockmarket from 1969 because he thought stocks in that period were not cheap, he made a reappearance in 1974 just before the turn of a bear market, when he declared in a Forbes interview:

How do you contemplate the current stock market, we asked Warren Buffett, the sage of Omaha, Neb.

"Like an oversexed guy in a whorehouse," he shot back.

Buffett then proceeded to buy up cheap stocks in good companies like he had some kind of billionaire fever. He did it again after the 1987 crash and after the late 1990s tech meltdown.

To be sure even Buffett himself has said the current economic and market situation is like an economic Pearl Harbour and we haven't witnessed anything like this since WW2, so he hasn't got his head completely up the far reaches of his vast wallet.

The only thing that worries me slightly about his recent behavior is that he has been uncharacteristically vocal, giving lots of interviews and making numerous public comments like he never has before.

In one recent interview with Susie Gharib from PBS Nightly Business Report (which incidentally runs on Auckland's Triangle TV at 4.30pm weekdays and is very good) Buffett answered this question from Susie and I would have to agree:

I mean what is your most important investment lesson?

WB: The most important investment lesson is to look at a stock as a piece of business not just some thing that jiggles up and down or that people recommend or people talk about earnings being up next quarter, something like that, but to look at it as a business and evaluate it as a business. If you don’t know enough to evaluate it as a business you don’t know enough to buy it. And if you do know enough to evaluate it as a business and its selling cheap, you buy it and don’t worry about what its doing next week, next month or next year.

SG: So if we asked for your investment advice back in 1979 back when Nightly Business Report first got started, would it be any different than what you would say today?

WB: Not at all. If you’d ask the same questions, you’ve gotten the same answers.

Indeed, time to be greedy when others are fearful.

I would bet on Buffett's side long-term. Lets see what Doug Kass has to say in 5 years.


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Scam Watch: List of helpful Investor tools

Since there has been so much skulduggery and theft from investors, most recently and historically, from individuals and companies like your Doug Somers-Edgars, Eric Watsons, Bridgecorp, ANZ's ING and a whole host of other vagabonds and rogues, I thought it would be good to collect together a list of links to help the investor out there stop investing in something silly and if they have already where they can go to get help.


www.seccom.govt.nz - NZ Securities Commission: Report all dodgy investments.

www.sharescams.org.nz - Find out what share scams there are about.

www.sfo.govt.nz - Serious Fraud office.

www.consumeraffairs.govt.nz/scamwatch/ - Consumer scams.

http://www.fpia.org.nz/compdis-reso/complaintsproc.htm - Complaints to the institute of financial advisors.

http://www.eufa.co.nz/ - Exposing unacceptable practices website: principally set up to advocate for investors who lost money in fiance companies.

www.iombudsman.org.nz - Insurance and savings ombudsman.

www.bankombudsman.org.nz - Banking ombudsman.

http://www.consumeraffairs.govt.nz/businessinfo/cccfa/cccfa-regs-formula.html - Credit Contracts and Consumer Finance Regulations 2004

http://www.comcom.govt.nz/ - Responsible for enforcing the Fair Trading Act, the Commission's site has a guide to the act, and information about various scams which they have taken action on.

http://www.vcnz.co.nz/Scams.html
- Property scams outlined.

http://www.reinz.org.nz/reinz/index.cfm?80B3875D-959D-2F1D-48B4-BC1152088CE3
- Complain to the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand.

These links are helpful but of course the best thing you can do is do your own research before you invest that hard earned money.


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Sunday, February 1, 2009

Winston's Big Black shame

So Winston Peters has been milking the taxpayer to the last minute over his ministerial self-drive car, so what else is new, he has been stealing from the taxpayer for his whole political career.


...it was proving a rather useful shopping trolley for his partner. Jan Trotman, with whom he lives in Auckland, used the Ford Territory to get to coffee dates and the post shop... NZ Herald

In 2008 he got away with numerous thefts, misappropriations, bribes and payola scandals related to just the last 5 years or so.

He is still to pay back $158,000.00 stolen from the taxpayer to fight the 2005 election.

At least he is consistent.

Pass the banana.


c Political Animal 2009

Long vs Short: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare

http://chart.bigcharts.com/custom/fairfax-com-nz/chart.asp?rnd=0.3338466193181723&style=2242&symb=FPH&size=1&type=64&time=10yr&freq=1dy&comp=&compidx=NZ50G%7E1392984&ma=&maval=&lf=&lf2=&lf3=&uf=16384&arrowdates=&arrowlegend=&country=NZ&sid=162937


In this forth installment of the Long vs Short series I am once again going to take look at the chart comparisons for a stock from the Share Investor Portfolio and compare the 10 year return (above) to the turmoil of the last year with a 1 year return chart (large chart at bottom of post).

In this series I want to show the merits of investing, using charts, for the long-term vs short term gains or losses. I will use the longest available data to me for the long-term view (10 years )and will make a comparison against the NZX50.

In the forth of this segment of Long vs Short I will take a look at Fisher & Paykel Healthcare [FPH.NZ]

I have held 2000 Fisher and Paykel Healthcare shares since May 2007 and have added more since then to take the total to 5000 (see small chart below for detail)

My Portfolio
About
Symbol
Price
Value
Earned
$3.38
$16900
$3550
You own 5000 [FPH.NZ] shares
purchased at $2.67 [$13350]














My total return after 18 months or so is just over 26%. That is after dividends and tax credits are added and brokerage applied.

Very good considering current market conditions.

If I had held this stock for a full ten years (see large chart at top) my return would have been over 210%.

By comparison if I had held the stock for just one year (see large chart below) my return would have been a loss of 35%.

This is in spite of the stock being a relatively good performer this year.

No stock in this series, yet, has proven to be a loser over the longer 10 year period and Fisher & Paykel Healthcare is no exception.



http://chart.bigcharts.com/custom/fairfax-com-nz/chart.asp?rnd=0.3338466193181723&style=2242&symb=FPH&size=1&type=64&time=1yr&freq=1dy&comp=&compidx=NZ50G%7E1392984&ma=&maval=&lf=&lf2=&lf3=&uf=16384&arrowdates=&arrowlegend=&country=NZ&sid=162937



Long vs Short series

Mainfreight Ltd
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Sky City Entertainment


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Housekeeping: Google Translate

Aktie Investor


Visitors to the Share Investor Blog who don't read English can pour over my pearls of wisdom by using Google Translate so that they can read my blog in their native language.

One recent example from a reader is a Fisher & Paykel Healthcare story translated into German:

Angesichts habe ich meine eigene Beratung gestern, um zu meiner eigenen Bestände ich schon, wenn sie wurden geschlagen, die in Preis Ich dachte, ich möchte hinzufügen, Fisher & Paykel Healthcare [FPH.NZ] auf diese neueste in einer Reihe von Warum haben Sie sich kaufen, dass Lager? Ich bin besonders bullish zu diesem Lager aus einer Reihe von Gründen.

Chinese readers of mine can read a translated version of this blog's latest post here.

From Arabic to Vietnamese, your language will be there.


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Saturday, January 31, 2009

Residential rental property now approaching good investment criteria

With mortgage interest rates taking a dive again this week, following a 1.5% drop in the cash rate by Allan Bollard, and further OCR cuts and therefore more mortgage cuts coming, the attractiveness of residential housing as an investment for Kiwis is becoming a more realistic and financially viable proposition.

With 5 year mortgages at major banks at 5.95% and falling house prices, realistic yields from rental income, without relying on capital gain could motivate some of us who didn't plunge into rental housing when every man woman and dog was doing not long ago.

Back then of course there was a rush to buy as many houses as ones dopey bank manager would let you have as loans were assessed according on inflated house prices as collateral and little focus was put on real returns.

Strangely enough when the investment case to buy a rental house makes much more financial sense the brakes have been put on by some banks.

The ASB Bank for example (my bank) has raised the amount you must have for a deposit and introduced a curious addition to every term of interest rates-a premium will be paid on mortgages taken out for a rental property.

Anyway, if you can still wangle some money off your bank manager, friend, Dad or sugar daddy you could make the investment purchase that will put you in good stead for a lifetime.

When an investor looks around at the current investment landscape for a good yield one will have to go past term deposits , New Zealand's most preferred investment outside housing, and at a 4% or less yield, after inflation and tax you would be at least 2% in the hole.

The two current most attractive investments for yield are shares, depending on the current profitability of the company and of course rental housing.

Of the two I would at present favour shares but rental housing is starting to look like a good move for all the above reasons and more.


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Friday, January 30, 2009

US SENATE COMMITTEE: James Hansen’s Former NASA Supervisor Declares Himself a Skeptic - Says Hansen "Embarrassed NASA"

A piece written on US Senate committee of Environment and public works website about the NASA warming scientist James Hansen, one of former Vice President Al Gore’s closest allies in the promotion of man-made global warming fears, is being publicly rebuked by his former supervisor at NASA retired atmospheric scientist Dr. John S. Theon.


Unlike most of the nonsense written about that supports the Global Warming religion, this piece has once again slipped past the moronic mainstream media hacks who lap up Gore and his disciples.

It is rather long but well worth the read.


Says Hansen ‘Embarrassed NASA’ & ‘Was Never Muzzled’ 

Gore Faces More Scientific Blowback  

Also See: Gore’s Inconvenient Astronaut: NASA Moonwalker Defies Gore's Claim That Skeptics Are Akin To Those Who Believe Moon Landing was 'Staged'   

[ See: Senator Inhofe’s YouTube Clip on Hansen’s former supervisor: ]

 

Washington DC: NASA warming scientist James Hansen, one of former Vice President Al Gore’s closest allies in the promotion of man-made global warming fears, is being publicly rebuked by his former supervisor at NASA.

 

Retired senior NASA atmospheric scientist Dr. John S. Theon, the former supervisor of James Hansen, NASA’s vocal man-made global warming fears soothsayer, has now publicly declared himself a skeptic and declared that Hansen “embarrassed NASA” with his alarming climate claims and said Hansen was “was never muzzled.”  Theon joins the rapidly growing ranks of international scientists abandoning the promotion of anthropogenic global warming fears. [See: U.S. Senate Minority Report Update: More Than 650 International Scientists Dissent Over Man-Made Global Warming Claims & See Prominent Scientist Fired By Gore Says Warming Alarm ‘Mistaken’  &  Gore laments global warming efforts: 'I've failed badly' - Washington Post – November 11, 2008  ]

 

 

 

“I appreciate the opportunity to add my name to those who disagree that global warming is man-made,” Theon wrote to the Minority Office at the Environment and Public Works Committee on January 15, 2009. “I was, in effect, Hansen's supervisor because I had to justify his funding, allocate his resources, and evaluate his results. I did not have the authority to give him his annual performance evaluation,Theon, the former Chief of the Climate Processes Research Program at NASA Headquarters and former Chief of the Atmospheric Dynamics & Radiation Branch explained. [Note: Here are the results a Google Scholar search on Theon. - Theon's complete written correspondence to EPW reprinted at the end of this report. ]

 

 

“Hansen was never muzzled even though he violated NASA's official agency position on climate forecasting (i.e., we did not know enough to forecast climate change or mankind's effect on it). Hansen thus embarrassed NASA by coming out with his claims of global warming in 1988 in his testimony before Congress,” Theon wrote.  [Note: NASA scientist James Hansen who runs NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) has created worldwide media frenzy with his dire climate warnings, his call for trials against those who dissent against man-made global warming fear, and his claims that he was allegedly muzzled by the Bush administration despite doing 1,400 on-the-job media interviews - See: Don’t Panic Over Predictions of Climate Doom - Get the Facts on James Hansen  & UK Guardian: NASA scientist calls for putting oil firm chiefs on trial for 'high crimes against humanity' for spreading doubt about man-made global warming – June 23, 2008 &  NYT's Revkin chides Hansen for promoting sea level claims that are at upper boundary of what is 'even physically possible' (Note: Headline re: Revkin and Hansen corrected) ]

 

Theon declared “climate models are useless.” “My own belief concerning anthropogenic climate change is that the models do not realistically simulate the climate system because there are many very important sub-grid scale processes that the models either replicate poorly or completely omit,” Theon explained. “Furthermore, some scientists have manipulated the observed data to justify their model results. In doing so, they neither explain what they have modified in the observations, nor explain how they did it. They have resisted making their work transparent so that it can be replicated independently by other scientists. This is clearly contrary to how science should be done. Thus there is no rational justification for using climate model forecasts to determine public policy,” he added.

 

“As Chief of several of NASA Headquarters’ programs (1982-94), an SES position, I was responsible for all weather and climate research in the entire agency, including the  research work by James Hansen, Roy Spencer, Joanne Simpson, and several hundred other scientists at NASA field centers, in academia, and in the private sector who worked on climate research,” Theon wrote of his career. “This required a thorough understanding of the state of the science. I have kept up with climate science since retiring by reading books and journal articles,” Theon added. (LINK) Theon also co-authored the book Advances in Remote Sensing Retrieval Methods.

 

Hansen 'is a political activist who spreads fear'

 

Award-winning NASA Astronaut and Physicist Walter Cunningham of NASA’s Apollo 7 also recently chastised Hansen. “Hansen is a political activist who spreads fear even when NASA’s own data contradict him,” Cunningham wrote in an essay in the July/August 2008 issue of Launch Magazine. “NASA should be at the forefront in the collection of scientific evidence and debunking the current hysteria over human-caused, or Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW). Unfortunately, it is becoming just another agency caught up in the politics of global warming, or worse, politicized science,” Cunningham wrote.

 

[Note: Theon joins many current and former NASA scientists in dissenting from man-made climate fears. A small sampling includes: Aerospace engineer and physicist Dr. Michael Griffin, the former  top administrator of NASA, Atmospheric Scientist Dr. Joanne Simpson, the first woman in the world to receive a PhD in meteorology and is formerly of NASA, Geophysicist Dr. Phil Chapman, an astronautical engineer and former NASA astronaut, Award-Winning NASA Astronaut/Geologist and Moonwalker Jack Schmitt, Chemist and Nuclear Engineer Robert DeFayette was formerly with NASA’s Plum Brook Reactor, Hungarian Ferenc Miskolczi, an atmospheric physicist with 30 years of experience and a former researcher with NASA's Ames Research Center, Climatologist Dr. John Christy, Climatologist Dr. Roy W. Spencer, Atmospheric Scientist Ross Hays of NASA's Columbia Scientific Balloon Facility]

 

 Gore faces a much different scientific climate in 2009 than the one he faced in 2006 when his film An Inconvenient Truth was released. According to satellite data, the Earth has cooled since Gore’s film was released,  Antarctic sea ice extent has grown to record levels, sea level rise has slowed, ocean temperatures have failed to warm, and more and more scientists have publicly declared their dissent from man-made climate fears as peer-reviewed studies continue to man-made counter warming fears. [See: Peer-Reviewed Study challenges 'notion that human emissions are responsible for global warming' & New Peer-Reviewed Scientific Studies Chill Global Warming Fears ]

“Vice President Gore's and the other promoters of man-made climate fears' endless claims that the 'debate is over' appear to be ignoring scientific reality,” Senator James Inhofe, Ranking Member of the Environment & Public Works Committee.

A U.S. Senate Minority Report released in December 2008 details over 650 international scientists who are dissenting from man-made global warming fears promoted by the UN. Many of the scientists profiled are former UN IPCC scientists and former believers in man-made climate change that have reversed their views in recent years. The report continues to grow almost daily. We have just received a request from an Italian scientist, and a Czech scientist to join the 650 dissenting scientists report. A chemist from the U.S. Naval Academy is about to be added, and more Japanese scientists are dissenting. Finally, many more meteorologists will be added and another former UN IPCC scientist is about to be included. These scientists are openly rebelling against the climate orthodoxy promoted by Gore and the UN IPCC.

The prestigious International Geological Congress, dubbed the geologists' equivalent of the Olympic Games, was held in Norway in August 2008 and prominently featured the voices of scientists skeptical of man-made global warming fears. Reports from the conference found that Skeptical scientists overwhelmed the meeting, with  '2/3 of presenters and question-askers hostile to, even dismissive of, the UN IPCC' ( See full reports here & here ]  In addition, a 2008 canvass of more than 51,000 Canadian scientists revealed 68% disagree that global warming science is “settled.”   A November 25, 2008, article in Politico noted that a “growing accumulation” of science is challenging warming fears, and added that the “science behind global warming may still be too shaky to warrant cap-and-trade legislation.”  More evidence that the global warming fear machine is breaking down. Russian scientists “rejected the very idea that carbon dioxide may be responsible for global warming”. An American Physical Society editor conceded that a “considerable presence” of scientific skeptics exists.  An International team of scientists countered the UN IPCC, declaring: “Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate”.  India Issued a report challenging global warming fears.  International Scientists demanded the UN IPCC “be called to account and cease its deceptive practices.”  

The scientists and peer-reviewed studies countering climate claims are the key reason that the U.S. public has grown ever more skeptical of man-made climate doom predictions. [See: Global warming ranks dead last, 20 out of 20 in new Pew survey. Pew Survey  & Survey finds majority of U.S. Voters - '51% — now believe that humans are not the predominant cause of climate change' - January 20, 2009 - Rasmussen Reports ]  

 

 The chorus of skeptical scientific voices grow louder in 2008 as a steady stream of peer-reviewed studies, analyses, real world data and inconvenient developments challenged the UN’s and former Vice President Al Gore's claims that the "science is settled" and there is a "consensus."

On a range of issues, 2008 proved to be challenging for the promoters of man-made climate fears.  Promoters of anthropogenic warming fears endured the following: Global temperatures failing to warm; Peer-reviewed studies predicting a continued lack of warminga failed attempt to revive the discredited “Hockey Stick”; inconvenient developments and studies regarding rising CO2; the Spotless Sun; Clouds; Antarctica; the Arctic; Greenland’s ice; Mount Kilimanjaro; Global sea ice; Causes of Hurricanes; Extreme Storms; Extinctions; Floods; Droughts; Ocean Acidification; Polar Bears; Extreme weather deaths; Frogs; lack of atmospheric dust; Malaria; the failure of oceans to warm and rise as predicted.    

Theon’s complete written correspondence to EPW reprinted below:  

-----Original Message-----
From: Jtheon [mailto:jtheon@XXXXXXX]
Sent: Thursday, January 15, 2009 10:05 PM
To: Morano, Marc (EPW)

Subject: Climate models are useless 

Marc, First, I sent several e-mails to you with an error in the address and they have been returned to me. So I'm resending them in one combined e-mail. 

Yes, one could say that I was, in effect, Hansen’s supervisor because I had to justify his funding, allocate his resources, and evaluate his results. I did not have the authority to give him his annual performance evaluation. He was never muzzled even though he violated NASA’s official agency position on climate forecasting (i.e., we did not know enough to forecast climate change or mankind's effect on it). He thus embarrassed NASA by coming out with his claims of global warming in 1988 in his testimony before Congress. 

My own belief concerning anthropogenic climate change is that the models do not realistically simulate the climate system because there are many very important sub-grid scale processes that the models either replicate poorly or completely omit. Furthermore, some scientists have manipulated the observed data to justify their model results. In doing so, they neither explain what they have modified in the observations, nor explain how they did it. They have resisted making their work transparent so that it can be replicated independently by other scientists. This is clearly contrary to how science should be done. Thus there is no rational justification for using climate model forecasts to determine public policy. 

With best wishes, John 

# #  

From: Jtheon [mailto:jtheon@XXXXXX]
Sent: Tuesday, January 13, 2009 12:50 PM
To: Morano, Marc (EPW)

Subject: Re: Nice seeing you

Marc, Indeed, it was a pleasure to see you again. I appreciate the opportunity to add my name to those who disagree that Global Warming is man made.  A brief bio follows. Use as much or as little of it as you wish. 

John S. Theon Education: B.S. Aero. Engr. (1953-57); Aerodynamicist, Douglas Aircraft Co. (1957-58); As USAF Reserve Officer (1958-60),B.S. Meteorology (1959); Served as Weather Officer 1959-60; M.S, Meteorology (1960-62); NASA Research Scientist, Goddard Space Flight Ctr. (1962-74); Head Meteorology Branch, GSFC (1974-76); Asst. Chief, Lab. for Atmos. Sciences, GSFC (1977-78);  Program Scientist, NASA Global Weather Research Program, NASA Hq. (1978-82); Chief, Atmospheric Dynamics & Radiation Branch NASA Hq., (1982-91); Ph.D.,  Engr. Science & Mech.: course of study and dissertation in atmos. science (1983-85); Chief, Atmospheric Dynamics, Radiation, & Hydrology Branch, NASA Hq. (1991-93); Chief, Climate Processes Research Program, NASA Hq. (1993-94); Senior Scientist, Mission to Planet Earth Office, NASA Hq. (1994-95); Science Consultant, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (1995-99); Science Consultant  Orbital Sciences Corp. (1996-97) and NASA Jet Propulsion Lab., (1997-99).      

As Chief of several NASA Hq. Programs (1982-94), an SES position, I was responsible for all weather and climate research in the entire agency, including the  research work by James Hansen, Roy Spencer, Joanne Simpson, and several hundred other scientists at NASA field centers, in academia, and in the private sector who worked on climate research. This required a thorough understanding of the state of the science. I have kept up with climate  science since retiring by reading books and journal articles. I hope that this is helpful.   

Best wishes, John   

# # #   

Global Warming and Other Eco Myths: How the Environmental Movement Uses False Science to Scare Us to DeathGlobal Warming and Other Eco Myths: How the Environmental Movement Uses False Science to Scare Us to Death byCompetitive Enterprise Institute 
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