Wednesday, June 11, 2008

JOHN BOSCAWEN: Freedom of Speech Trust Newsletter


Newsletter No.2 – Electoral Finance Act

By John Boscawen – Freedom of Speech Trust


10 June 2008


The Electoral Finance Act was passed by Parliament in December last year despite the objection of our Human Rights Commission, the New Zealand Law Society and all our major newspapers. The Act imposes restrictions on free speech far beyond what both the Human Rights Commission and the Electoral Commission considered reasonable. The Freedom of Speech Trust has been established to campaign for the Act’s repeal. Please feel free to circulate this newsletter to your friends and associates.

A tribute to Graham Stairmand

It is with great regret and sympathy that I acknowledge the very recent death of Graham Stairmand, President of the Grey Power Federation.

Graham was a strong opponent of the Electoral Finance Bill and he joined Garth McVicar, Rodney Hide and myself in a legal action against the Bill late last year. (See below).

His work for senior citizens was acknowledged by the presence at his funeral of the Minister for Senior Citizens Hon. Ruth Dyson, National’s spokesperson for Senior Citizens Sandra Goudie and MPs Peter Brown and Nicky Wagner.

I acknowledge his opposition to the Act, the support he gave me and the courage he showed in joining the legal challenge. I extend my deepest sympathy to his family.

Bill of Rights challenge against the Attorney General returned to High Court – 15 May

In the absence of a written constitution one of the most important protections we have to our democracy and to our rights to free speech is the New Zealand Bill of Rights Act 1990. This Act requires the Attorney General to notify parliament of any bill that comes before the House that is “inconsistent” with the Act.


Almost everyone (and certainly the Human Rights Commission and the New Zealand Law Society) agrees that the Electoral Finance Bill was inconsistent with the Bill of Rights Act when it was introduced last July, yet the Attorney General failed to notify the inconsistency. This is hard to comprehend given the Bill required every New Zealander to first sign a statutory declaration before they spent a single dollar expressing any political opinion in election year. Incredibly the Crown Law Office thought this was acceptable and not inconsistent with the Bill of Rights.


Late last year I, along with Garth McVicar, the late Graham Stairmand and Rodney Hide commenced legal proceedings in the High Court in Wellington seeking a declaration that the Attorney General failed in his duty. We sought urgency.

The Crown opposed urgency and sought to have the proceedings struck out – so, in the event they were successful we would have been denied the chance to argue our case.

Earlier this year we updated our Statement of Claim to argue that the Electoral Finance Act, (as passed) was also inconsistent with the Bill of Rights.


The strike out application was heard in a full day open court hearing at the Wellington High Court on 15 May. Justice Clifford reserved his decision.

Tauranga Protest – 3 May

On Saturday 3 May between 600-800 people marched through downtown Tauranga opposing the Electoral Finance Act. The protest march was an outstanding success and was the largest protest seen in Tauranga for several years – certainly since the 1981 Springbok Tour, if not before.


The protest was widely covered in the Bay of Plenty with extensive coverage in the Bay of Plenty Times – which featured it as its main front page story on the Thursday before the march.


For their coverage, see
http://www.bayofplentytimes.co.nz/storydisplay.cfm?storyID=3771539&msg=email link.


TV3 also covered a full report of the protest on their main 6.00pm news bulletin.

Other Protest Actions

In addition to the Tauranga protest we have organized two recent protests. In the first, 35 opponents of the Act protested outside the Rendezvous Hotel in Auckland (formerly the Carlton Hotel) on 23 May where the Prime Minister was addressing a post Budget luncheon. Our placards called for a repeal of the Act and a restoration of free speech.


In the second protest, a small group distributed leaflets to the attendees of the Green Party Conference in Auckland over Queen’s Birthday weekend. We highlighted the fact that the Green Party was proposing a closer working relationship with the Maori Party. The irony was that the Maori Party had been a strong opponent of the Electoral Finance Act. In his speech to parliament on the third final reading of the Bill, Maori Party MP Hone Harawira said:

‘Yes folks, money talks, but nothing talks quite like the truth and the truth about this bill is that it’s nothing but an arrogant dismissal by this Labour-led government to deny the citizens of Aotearoa New Zealand the right to participate in one of the fundamental rights of any so-called democratic society: How you elect your government……. Money is not what drives people to vote. It is the truth’.

Our message to the Green Party MPs and their supporters was to show some leadership, acknowledge that parliament did not fully understand what it was doing when the Act was passed and move to repeal it.


More protests, particularly in provincial areas, are planned for later this year.


Uncertainty of our Electoral Law and the likelihood on legal challenges post election day

When I first began my campaign of opposition to the Electoral Finance Bill my focus was the impact of the Act on free speech and the right of ordinary citizens to participate in the electoral process. The recent ruling by the High Court that the Engineering, Printing Manufacturing Union people may be prohibited from registering as a third party because it is involved with the management of the Labour Party is just one example of the restrictions the Act imposed.


However an equally important issue has emerged over recent months and that is the application of the Act to the MPs, themselves. This is well illustrated by the Chief Electoral Officer ruling that Trevor Mallard’s car, painted red and emblazoned with his name and Labour Party logos is an “election advertisement”. While the trivial issue may be the car failed to carry the authorization of Trevor Mallard’s financial agent, the much more important issue is that the cost of his election advertisement must be included in his $20,000 expense allowance for his election campaign in the Hutt electorate.


The problem he faces, is how much and what cost does he include? Certainly the cost of the paintwork but what about the running costs of the car? - a form of depreciation allowance?

Trevor Mallard is now faced with the very real prospect of having to run a very conservative campaign, and spending well within his $20,000 allowance. The alternative is to spend close to the $20,000 allowance, and to run the risk, assuming he retains his electoral seat, of being challenged in court post election day on the ground he did not fully return the full cost of his car’s advertising. This highlights the point made by Professor Bill Hodge speaking at our Auckland protest in March that the Act is uncertain and is likely to lead to a number of legal challenges post election day with the final result of the election not known until well into next year.


Continuing Campaign

If you are concerned about the implications of the Electoral Finance Act on our democracy and on free speech I would be grateful for any support you can give to bring about repeal of the Act. In the first instance you can forward this email to your friends and family.


Financial contributions can be made to Trust at PO Box 42-267, Orakei, Auckland, or direct to the Trust’s bank account 12-3252-0039335-00.

Regards


John Boscawen

Trustee – Freedom of Speech Trust

Email: john@boscawen.co.nz



Political Animal Electoral Finance Act coverage

The purpose of the Bill is clear

c Political Animal 2008

Cartoon c Stan Blanch 2008


New grab by Labour at taxpayer funds comes with fakes included

The latest grab at taxpayer funds to prop up the coffers of the Labour Party election fund is reminiscent of the NZ $824,000.00 of taxpayer dollars stolen to buy the 2005 election by funding an illegal pledge card.

The juicy irony this time though is that the sanctimonious fools at Labour passed the Electoral Finance Act in 2007 to make this sort of sneaky rorting of taxpayer funds illegal although now this pack of thieves wont have to pay us back, taking a lead from Winston Peters when he refused to repay the $158,000,00 of taxpayer funds he stole to finance his 2005 election.

Political Animal Electoral Finance Act coverage



The 2008 breach involves an expensive foldout junk mail booklet that will be dropped in budget stretched households all across the nation bestoling their meagre personal tax cuts and large welfare handouts to the undeserved listed in May's 2008 Budget.

This is not the first time Labour have broken their own law, being the first to break it at the beginning of 2008 and now having several cases before the police and Electoral Commission for subsequent law breaking.

It goes to show, that Labour continues to have little concern with the conventions of democracy, law, respect for public money and full disclosure when it comes to electoral funding.

Lessons from Owengate from earlier this year were not learnt. Donations of money were secretly made from Owen Glenn to Labour Party coffers, again breaching the spirit of the Electoral Finance Act and other electoral laws.

The real kicker is that the photo used on the front cover was of a fake American Family, and taken from stock photos from a website. The photo has also been used by Rudd's Labour Party in Australia to spiel their propaganda.

Labour Party President Mike Smith is behind this latest scandal and he said as much when he last breached the EFA that he would do it again, and he has.

The fact that a fake family was used to advertise Labour Party budget policies, sneakily using taxpayer funds to do so, shows voters,especially Labour Party ones, that the content contained in them is just as one dimensional, and lacking in morals as the method of letting the voting public know.

Lesson not learnt from 1999 when Helen Clark signed her name to a picture she said she painted.

Pass me the bucket.


Related Political Animal reading

Owen Glenn: Snouts in the trough
The Owen Glenn story: Singing the same tune but hitting a bum note
Labour Party Election funding murky at best
Labour first to break Electoral Finance Act

c Political Animal 2008

Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Good opportunities exist for buying in current stockmarket

Everyday my portfolio takes another downwards trajectory. How about yours? Economic conditions in New Zealand and globally don't look good for the short to medium term.

There are more losses to hit markets in relation to the Sub Prime fallout, that initially revealed itself almost a year ago and the losses that have been crystalized in balance sheets around the world have had the consequent affect on credit markets, economic confidence and outlook. Future sub-prime losses will clearly continue this trend.

The added pressure of spiraling oil, food prices and every other good and service has left consumers pockets closed for business and those businesses are going to suffer as we all continue to prune costs.

Share prices have been reflecting this for more than six months but now we are set for more stockmarket revaluations as the economic gloom prepares to make itself at home.

Never fear though!

If like me you have been prepared for this you would have been squirreling away money while you could in anticipation of harder times then great. Some of our listed companies have hopefully been doing the same, unlike our present administration, and this is going to put you and them in good stead for a slow down.

It looks very likely that our stockmarket will be breaching the 3000 mark sometime this year and with that comes opportunity for buying.

The biggest opportunity for good wealth creation in the long term I would think would be US dollar sensitive stocks, all of which have been hammered over the last year because of the relative weakness of the US dollar.

It looks like the tide has turned for our dollar, with mutterings from Allan Bollard of interest rate cuts later in 2008 and the Fed talking up US interest rates.

Rakon[RAK.NZ], Fisher and Paykel Healthcare Ltd [FPH.NZ], Mainfreight Ltd[MFT.NZ], Sanford Ltd[SAN.NZ], Delegats Ltd[DLG.NZ], Pumpkin Patch Ltd[PPL.NZ] and Fletcher Building Ltd[FBU.NZ] will all benefit from the falling exchange rate while many of these companies are ready benefiting from the lower NZ/AU dollar cross, joined by the likes of Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd[SKC.NZ], Telecom NZ Ltd[TEL.NZ] and Michael Hill International[MHI.NZ] which have substantial operations in the West Island, Australia.

The biggest star that will benefit from this, which I conveniently hold, is Fisher and Paykel Health.

The company has profit sensitivity of approximately NZ$2.5 million, per one percentage point change in the value of the NZ dollar and as our exchange rate is off its recent high of .82c and is currently less than .76c then there is significant upside as the dollar retreats towards its historical levels of below 60c to the US dollar.

Its sales are also increasing strongly, so its upside in the medium to long term looks very good.

Apart from the opportunities related to a falling NZ currency there are also some very good companies ripe for bargain hunters flush with cash from better days and investors would be mad not to do some spending instead of getting those brokers and financial advisors wealthier by selling stocks and getting into gold, commodities, fixed interest, cash or some other over valued asset class.

Disc I own MFT, FPH, SKC, MHI, PPL, and FBU shares in the Share Investor Portfolio


Related Share Investor Reading

"Mr Market" gets his groove on
A sensible approach to global market volatility
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From Fishpond.co.nz - Buy Toughen Up: What I've Learned About Surviving Tough Times

Toughen Up: What I've Learned About Surviving Tough Times

Toughen Up - Fishpond.co.nz



c Share Investor 2008

Monday, June 9, 2008

New Zealand needs an open democracy

During my recent visit to Bangkok, I watched a whole lot more TV, for one reason or another this is a sad fact but I wont go into that here!

While watching various news product from around the world, most of it politics, I was struck by how open and free the United States primaries and the US electoral system were. Where else in the world would two sides of the same political party, the Democrats, would go hammer and tongs for 16 months against each other, throw every filthy piece of dirt, tens of millions of dollars and say the most outrageous things that would be the end of the most stable of friendships in the real world, in the hope that one or other individual would be able to challenge John McCain come November 2008 for the US presidency, in the most powerful open democracy in the world.

Related Political Animal reading

NZ losses democratic freedom
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The purpose of the Bill is clear



McCain himself was left open to similar scrutiny, his private life stripped bare for all to see, the very marrow at the centre of his soul was open to question.

No matter the politics that one follows or ones own "world view" one cannot deny that politics in America is in a very healthy state, as defined by the process of selection of candidates,not necessarily the quality of the candidates-you only have to look at the poor political and personal records of Hillary and Barry Obama to see the genesis of truth there.

While watching the box I also saw reported other forms of democracy. The brutal, murderous and secretive dictatorship of Robert Mugabe's Zimbabwe, where politics is decided at the point of a gun and more recently through threat of starvation, Thailand's "benevolent dictatorship" or democracy with a bomb strapped to it in the Hamas led Palestine.

Lying somewhere in between those extremes lies the New Zealand democratic system. Sick from the dog wagging the tail, extremist lunatics like the global warming fanatics in the Green Party, the racist propaganda from the Maori Party, the complete nonsense from Winston Peter's and his New Zealand First Party and the evil Socialist intent of the ruling Labour Party Junta.

We have individuals like Margaret Wilson, Winston Peters, Sue Kedgly and Jeanette Fitzsimmons who were not voted into power by New Zealanders, but by their own party members and they have made life and death decisions based on their own ill conceived form of personal agenda politics on behalf of all0p New Zealanders.

The epitome of how closed our political landscape was the imposition of the Electoral Finance Act by Labour government politicians last year. Unlike the openness and strident debate that has been seen in America for the last 16 months the EFA has led to a fearfulness of opposition to speak out against the incumbent Labour government, by New Zealanders, the media and opposition politicians alike. The threat to an open democracy where debate can be had without fear or favour just doesn't exist in this country anymore.

While Mugabe and Hamas use extreme forms of control to influence political and personal behavior to sniffle debate and the freedoms of their respective political systems and retain political control, the New Zealand Labour Party have used legislation to achieve similar results.

For the future of a good democracy in New Zealand we must reform our nations political structure in a way more closely aligned to America, where free and open debate reign supreme, if not our future lies closer to Mugabe's Zimbabwe rather than the open democracy that we once had.

Removal of the MMP voting system and repeal of the Electoral Finance Act will allow such a democracy to flourish once again and give the nation the hope that it deserves.

c Political Animal 2008

Friday, June 6, 2008

Ralph Norris will pounce, you can bank on it

Given the recent marriage between Westpac and St George Bank[SG.AX] to forge Australia's biggest bank, to surpass the size of The Commonwealth Bank of Australia [CBA.AX] it seems unlikely that Ralph Norris, the CEO of CBA, will rest on his laurels.
Australia's banking sector has been ripe for consolidation for some time and talk of marriages and takeovers of various Aussie banks has been rife for the last few years.

It just so happens that Gail Kelly, the current CEO of Westpac Banking Corp [WBC.AX], was the former head of St George until August 2007 and she has wasted no time in making her presence felt at Westpac by moving to swallow the fifth largest bank in Australia, St George.

Ralph Norris is going to be biting at the bit to get his hands on one of the smaller sized oz banks as he cannot make a bid for any one of the "big 4" for competition reasons. Suncorp Metway [SUNN.AX], Australia's 6th largest bank and 4th largest insurer, would be a great fit for CBA and given slumping banking company share prices the current economic turmoil conditions would be a good time to pounce.

Even some of the smaller state banks like Adelaide Bank & Bendigo Bank [BEN.AX], merging themselves in August 2007, or the Bank of Queensland[BOQ.AX] would be possibilities for Ralph and CBA. These state banks have a strong presence in their home states but also have smaller niches in neighboring states.

Ralph is the sort of individual who doesn't like to be beaten. As an aggressive head of CBA's subsidiary in New Zealand, The ASB Banking Group, he helped turn that particular company from a strong regional Auckland based bank into the leading countrywide lender for mortgages today.

Whatever happens in the Australian banking sector though you can be sure that owning any of the smaller Australian banking stocks is going to be an exciting time for shareholders and it is only a matter of time before a few good ones are snapped up by Ralphy.

Australia is really a microcosm of what is happening world wide when it comes to banking stocks though. Right at this time in Thailand, where I am presently sunning myself, there is consolidation going on. In the US we have seen troubled banks gobbled up by competitors and Europe is having a good go at it too.

Ralph Norris will be on the hunt in OZ, he loves a bargain, so make sure as a shareholder you hold out for more come offer time!




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c Share Investor 2008

Thursday, June 5, 2008

Thai Express

Well, I wish the Thailand economy was as hot as the weather. I'm here in Bangkok on a business trip of sorts and while here naturally I would be checking out the action on the stockmarket and goings on economy wise.

There are rumblings of a coup here at the moment, where the "PAD" a people's democracy movement are trying to overthrow the nation's leader. This is naturally having an affect on the local stockmarket and their stock index has waivered in the last couple of days.

Looking around the country though any natural born capitalist, or one who has joined the movement recently, would be excited at the industrial nature of commerce and industry. The economy is of course highly controlled by a benevolent dictatorship(my own estimation) but that doesn't stop the nations people from trying to reach their obvious economic dream of having all the western accoutrement's.

If our tour guide is accurate in her figures, one of the main reasons for the locals and their fastidious work rate is the personal tax system. A range from 3% to a maximum of 30% is a definite incentive to get the country moving in a forward economic direction.

Our corrupt socialist Labour Party New Zealand leaders should take note. Our high tax rate is of course strangling our economy to death. Take my word, the Thai people are very poor as a whole today and the economy is struggling but give them 10 years or so and they will be richer than New Zealand. Far richer.

The constraints of red tape and planning procedures also don't hamper the forwards progress of the Thai economy. Factories belch lovely coloured smoke and their water is undrinkable. The 19th century industrial process is a little late in coming here. You have to let them have it though. It would be greedy and hypocritical of the Western World to hamper them with the Global Warming madness and other business constraints. Time and money will take care of the environment.

Leaving the hotel after this I will be confronted with a million people trying to take a Baht or 2 off me to help feed their families. It is in your face, exciting and entrepreneurial to the extreme. All that New Zealand business seems to lack at present, and has done for a long time.


Related Share Investor Reading

Notes from San Francisco

c Share Investor 2008

Monday, June 2, 2008

Why did you buy that Stock? [Pumpkin Patch]

Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL.NZ] was one of my long term growth investments because I saw its potential for future growth to be exceptional but still some time off.

Pumpkin Patch and sell trendy kids clothing in 4 different markets and currently have over 200 stores.


Why did you buy that stock?

Why did you buy that stock? [Ryman Healthcare]
Why did you buy that stock? [Michael Hill International]
Why did you buy that stock? [Mainfreight]
Why did you buy that stock? [The Warehouse]
Why did you buy that stock? [Goodman Fielder]
Why did you buy that stock? [Auckland Airport]
Why did you buy that stock? [Sky City Entertainment]


The brand recognition is very strong and customers are very loyal to that brand. This is one of the main reasons why I purchased shares in the company. That is, while many retailers of children's clothing sell nice clothes at reasonable prices Pumpkin Patch clothing sells at a premium because of its branding.

Pumpkin Patch designers have also enabled the brand to continually be reinforced by constantly releasing new clothing designs and therefore keeping that competitive edge in the markets they enter.

I wanted to purchase shares in the IPO a few years back but waited to see a few years of results before jumping in. Of course profit has slowed over the last 12 months or so, most retailers have suffered from a global slowdown but growth for the company over the last 4 years has been good and entry has been made into Britain and America since their listing.

The expansion management impressed me and those that run the company have been doing a fine job taking the company to the world. America has been a tough nut to crack so far but it seems the slow roll out of stores in Texas and California has been managed well if store level results are any indication.

So good management, as it should be always, is another overriding factor in my purchase decision. They do the selling of kids clothing better than any other retailer in the world that I have seen and this is where I see the growth.

One thing I haven't covered in much detail in any of this series before, with the exception of Mainfreight Ltd[MFT.NZ] I think, is company culture.

Like Mainfreight, company culture at Pumpkin Patch is brilliant, you can see it in the way you are treated when you walk into a store and that culture is bred from management down. If a business has a great company culture its employees are happier, and that leads to better sales and an increased bottom line-you cant go past that when looking at a reason to buy a company's shares.

Another small reason to purchase, my wife loves the clothing and we are trying for a baby and she can shop for Africa!

Now I have held Pumpkin for about 2 years and at an average purchase price of about NZ$3.70, so at a current market price of less than half that, it hasn't been good in the short term but I am a long term man so wouldn't be adverse to buying more should my dividend account have some money in it.

Disclosure I own PPL shares in the Share Investor Portfolio.


Pumpkin Patch @ Share Investor

Pumpkin Patch Ltd move downmarket
Long Term View: Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Pumpkin Patch's North American Downsizing a Prudent move
Digging at Pumpkin's Profit
Long vs Short: Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Buyback shows Confidence in the Future
Pumpkin Patch takes a hit
Pumpkin Patch ripe for the picking
What is Jan Cameron up to?

I'm buying
Why did you buy that Stock? [Pumpkin Patch]
Rod Duke's Pumpkin Patch gets bigger
Buyer of large piece of Pumpkin Patch a mystery
Pumpkin Patch a screaming buy
Broker downgrades of PPL lack long term vision
Pumpkin's expansion comes at a cost
Pumpkin Patch vs Burger Fuel
Pumpkin Patch profits flatten
New Zealand Retailers ring up costs not tills

Discuss PPL @ Share Investor Forum

Download PPL Company Reports

Buy Pumpkin Patch Clothing

From Fishpond.co.nz

Bird on a Wire: The Inside Story from a Straight Talking CEO

Buy Bird on a Wire: The Inside Story from a Straight Talking CEO & more @ Fishpond.co.nz

Fishpond


c Share Investor 2008




Friday, May 30, 2008

PRIMETV PRESENTS: The Great Global Warming Swindle

Sunday, 1st June at 8.30pm

 Watch TGGWS on the net here

Global warming is the biggest threat facing the world today, but not in the way you may think. The Great Global Warming Swindle blows the whistle on the biggest swindle in modern history. The theory of global warming has been postured as fact and as such does not need to be questioned but what if man’s CO2 emissions were not the cause of the problem? In fact there is overwhelming evidence, and has been for some time, showing that it’s solar activity that determines temperature.

Many solar scientists attest to the fact that during the late 20th century we experienced the highest levels of solar activity for centuries. Global Warming is the morality tale of the decade – politicians are eager to pander to middle class green prejudice, and are throwing vast quantities of public cash into scientific research aimed at supporting an unsupportable theory.

It’s a tale of scientists fearful of speaking out, of upsetting the funding applecart and jeopardising the many thousands of research jobs generated for them by the global warming scare.

WARNING: Content May Offend


**NB: there is a one hour discussion of The Great Global Warming with skeptics and loony believers alike. Leighton Smith, talkback host on Newstalk ZB is one of the skeptics !

There have been attempts from some devotees of Global Warming to appeal to the Broadcasting Standards Assc to have the programme removed so nobody can watch it. This is typical of the GW zealots who dont want others to see the the other, more believable side to the GW "debate".


Related Political Animal reading

Unstoppable global warming
Global Warning: Tax Iceberg Ahead
Kyoto critic comes to town - Sunday Star Times
Carbon Credit trading puts Global markets at extreme risk
Of Tulip Bulbs and Tooth Fairies
Ponder the Maunder - 15 Yr old Kristin Byrne explodes the GW myth

c Political Animal 2008

Thursday, May 29, 2008

NZ HERALD: Latest political poll and Political Animal commentary

As election day draws near the gap in polling between the National and Labour party stays constant.

Budget bribes, small as they were, clearly didn't work and Labour will have to make them bigger and more plentiful as we near polling day.

They have already started by bribing 44 thousand public "servants" with another weeks leave.

Bet your bottom taxpayer earned dollar though, Labour are going to raid the taxpayer purse to try to get back into power. They did it back in 1989, when they admitted a pre-election $89 million surplus but after their election bribes and when the books were uncovered post election we were over 1 billion in debt!

Is anyone listening though?

New Zealand Herald Poll story

Budget fails to do the trick for the Government

5:00AM Friday May 30, 2008
By Audrey Young
Helen Clark ranks below John Key as preferred prime minister, according to the poll. Photo / Getty Images

Helen Clark ranks below John Key as preferred prime minister, according to the poll. Photo / Getty Images

Labour's tax-cutting Budget has had no immediate impact on its poll rating in today's Herald-DigiPoll survey, the first major poll that includes a large post-Budget sample.

The economy has moved into top spot as the issue most likely to influence voters in this year's election, just nudging out tax cuts, which is the second most important issue.

Labour has moved down one point to 36.2 per cent but National has also moved down fractionally, by 0.6 to 51.5.

The gap between the two main parties has barely budged from last month's poll: 15.3 points, compared with 14.9 last month. National would still be able to govern alone.

National leader John Key continues to poll just ahead of Helen Clark as preferred prime minister, 44.6 per cent to 42.3 per cent.

If anyone received a lift from the Budget, it was New Zealand First leader Winston Peters, who claimed significant gains for the elderly.

His personal ratings as preferred prime minister more than doubled to 6.7 per cent.
But that boost has not been replicated in support for his party (1.9 per cent, up 0.4 points)

The poll of decided voters was taken over three weeks in May. Two-thirds of respondents were polled before the Budget and almost one-third (418 people) after it. The margin of error on the post-Budget sample is bigger than the pre-Budget sample.

The support levels for the parties changed slightly in the samples taken before and after the Budget. Labour was on 36.5 per cent before the Budget, and 35.3 per cent after it.

National was on 51.7 per cent before the Budget and 51.2 after it.

On the basis of this poll the Greens would comfortably get over the 5 per cent threshold and return to Parliament with eight MPs, two more than now.

The poll's pre- and post-Budget movements were more pronounced for Helen Clark and Winston Peters in the choice of preferred prime minister.

Helen Clark dropped 3.6 points and Winston Peters jumped 4.3 points in the post-Budget sample.

Overall, compared to last month's poll, Mr Peters is up 3.5 points, Mr Key is down 3.4 and Helen Clark is down 3.

Economic news dominated the headlines in May with the price of petrol passing $2 a litre and a lot of coverage on interest rates and stress on household budgets.

The Government announced a delay in including liquid fuels in the emissions trading scheme,which National announced it would not support.

The head of the Immigration Service, Mary Anne Thompson, resigned in disgrace. And Finance Minister Michael Cullen set out plans for $10.6 billion in tax cuts over three years.

Translated to seats in the House, National would get 63 and could govern alone.

When respondents were asked which issue was most likely to influence their vote at the election, 26.7 per cent said the economy, 22.5 per cent said tax cuts and 11.7 per cent said hospital waiting lists.

Mr Key said last night that the economic issues the country was facing were weighing directly on the polls. "On the back of that, the Budget doesn't appear to be having any major impact because the dominant factor is the economic malaise that is washing over the country."

Helen Clark could not be contacted.

* The poll of 1279 respondents was taken between May 5 and May 28 and the margin of error on the total sample is 2.7 per cent. The margin of error on the 418 polled after the Budget is 4.6 per cent. The percentage of undecided respondents was 13.8 per cent.

Related Political Animal reading

At least Robin Hood was honest: Labour will buy the 2008 election
Pointing fingers in the playground
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c Political Animal 2008

Peter Marshall deserves longer sentence

The sentencing of Peter Marshall, former head of the failed online broker, Access Brokerage, to 3 years jail today surprised me.

I was expecting a far lesser sentence and perhaps even home detention for a fraud Marshall perpetrated on small shareholder/customers, when he was CEO of the brokerage and it collapsed owing millions at the end of 2004.

Marshall's plea for leniency because of "poor health" showed all the hallmarks of fraud cases heard in the US several years ago over accounting fraud and dubious businesses practices but Judge Bruce Davidson wasn't having a bar of it.

Marshall really didn't deserve the courts leniency anyway as he pleaded not guilty and his defence argued his innocence all the way:


The Crown maintained the offending was significant and "took issue" with any suggestion of real remorse, as Marshall maintained he had done nothing wrong. Stuff.co.nz


While I was expecting a lesser sentence, I personally don't think 3 years is long enough. Marshall's lack of remorse clearly shows he hasn't learnt anything from his experience and for this reason alone the sentence should have started at 5 years.

We don't have to look much further than collapsing finance companies, and their advisors and
Money Managers advocating their clients to invest in dodgy companies to see that financial markets in New Zealand are still largely the domain of the wild west.

We need a few more sheriffs (and judges) in this town to send the message, and make an example of those who would wish to part you with your hard earned moola in nefarious ways.


Related Share Investor reading

Blue Chip's Mark Bryers at top of shaky pyramid
Money Managers Saga-3 story wrap
Money Manager's First Step gives investors the middle finger

c Share Investor 2008


Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Be an active investor

Reading the news today about 94 New Zealand Housing Corporation employees ensconced at a luxury resort in Tongariro at taxpayer expense, got me thinking about accountability of management amongst our listed companies and shareholder involvement or lack thereof in the businesses that they have invested in.

Even before investing in a listed company, you would do well, as part of your research to get in touch with the management of the company and have a chat. You maybe surprised who you might get hold of and you could even find yourself talking to the CEO, or the company secretary at the very least. They can only say no. I myself have talked to several leaders of the companies I own a part of and you can glean quite alot from a quick chat.

Of course if you do business or become a paying customer at one of the businesses you have a shareholding in, it doesn't hurt to give your feedback, positive of negative, about your experience. How the employee/manager at the end of the phone or across the desk deals with your feedback can say alot about the company you are invested in.

Shareholders should at the very least tick all the boxes in the forms that they get in the post come annual general meeting time. The form that you get will allow you to vote on remuneration, cast your ballot for directors and vote on any extraordinary decision the board may put to shareholders in a particular year, amongst other things.

These kinds of votes become even more important when your company has a takeover or merger offer made. Don't ignore these requests for your input. They are important, even though you might think you have only one vote, you do have ownership of a part of the company-exercise that ownership.

Go to annual meetings. You don't have to be a Bruce Sheppard, the head of the NZ Share Holders Association, but listening to the other shareholders ask questions, the ability for you to give your point of view on company direction is going to be a benefit to your decision to hold or fold.

Sadly in the 10 years I have held shares I have never been to a meeting, they are always on in the middle of the day when I am busy but that dear readers is another column.

New Zealanders are a passive bunch at the best of times. Foreign shareholders are far more involved and tend to have more say in the company's' that they own.

Remember, it is your money invested and you do have a say in your part share of the listed company that you own. It doesn't have to be a completely hands off experience and getting involved makes that investment a more exciting prospect that a certificate in the top drawer or an electronic company code on your computer screen.


Related Share Investor reading

Research,research,research
Stick to what you know
Investors can learn from my stupidity

From Amazon

The Development of Equity Capital Markets in Transition Economies: Privatization and Shareholders Rights (Contributions to Economics)

The Development of Equity Capital Markets in Transition Economies: Privatization and Shareholders Rights (Contributions to Economics) by Dirk Willer


c Share Investor 2008

The Vietnam apology that rings hollow

When NZ withdrew its troops the trauma for many of us was just beginning. We were brought back on a civilian aircraft in civilian clothes and were told to get off the aircraft and go away. The official word from the army was not to tell anyone you'd been in Vietnam. We were aliens in our own country. A march down Queen Street in Auckland turned into a riot. We were pelted with rotten fruit and vegetables. People were screaming out 'baby killers!' That wasn't much good for the psychological state of the soldiers who had just returned from a war zone. Some returned soldiers suffered physical and psychological injuries. I would think the problems (for vets) have been created out of neglect. Neglect on the part of the government, neglect on the part of society and to some extent neglect on the part of the army."

Rick Thame Victor Five Coy



Helen Clark, Phil Goff and a large number of other Labour Party members are going to "apologise" on behalf of the New Zealand Government this Thursday 29 2008 over Vietnam Veteran's appalling treatment by the government of the time and subsequent administrations. There was no government assistance for soldiers as there was in other wars, no welcome home, no acknowledgment of the bravery shown in battle against the Vietcong and they were told to shut their mouths and not talk about their horror again.

Many Vets committed suicide, became hospitalized with mental problems and have a myriad of health problems. Some of these things also happened to subsequent generations of family members.

They will never forget what happened, during the war and after.

I just have one question.

Will Helen Clark, Phil Goff and her Labour colleagues personally apologise for spitting in the soldiers faces during the Queen Street riots?

It must be election year.

c Political Animal 2008






Monday, May 26, 2008

NZ HERALD: Poll reveals we're still smacking our children


In the wake of the acquittal of Chris Kahui for murdering his 2 young children and not a thing said in the media by Sue Bradford, she is out again today trying to make good parents who give their children a corrective smack criminals and normalise that-Political Animal

Sue Bradford celebrates the passing of the anti-smacking law in 2007. Photo / Mark Mitchell
5:00AM Monday May 26, 2008
By Angela Gregory
NZ HERALD : Almost half of parents with children under 12 have smacked them in the past year, a survey has found.

The Family First lobby group commissioned a market research company to poll New Zealanders on their attitudes to parental discipline since the anti-smacking law came into effect in June last year.

It found that 48 per cent of respondents with children under 12 had smacked their child after the law change.

The changes to the Crimes Act outlawed the use of parental force against children for purposes of correction.

The issue polarised New Zealanders.

The law change was led by Green MP Sue Bradford, whose private member's bill removed from the Crimes Act the statutory defence of reasonable force to correct a child.

But it was passed only after last-minute changes, approved by a large majority in Parliament, which directed the police not to prosecute inconsequential offences.

Family First's national director, Bob McCoskrie, said he was surprised the polling found so many parents admitting they had flouted the law.

He said 51 per cent of mothers had admitted continuing to smack.

Related reading

Anti Anti-smacking petition a slap in the face for out of touch Politicians
Sign the anti smacking petition
Sacha Cobern's letter to NZ Herald Editor
Cindy Kiro gets violent
Anti-smacking law puts young boy at risk


"For a new law to be ignored by so many people who are willing to risk a police or [Child, Youth and Family] investigation indicates just how out of step with reality this law is."

The nationwide poll surveyed 1018 randomly selected respondents, with a fairly even spread of men and women aged from 18.

About a quarter of the respondents had children under 12.

Mr McCoskrie said the poll followed a similar one done in June last year, just after the new law came into effect.

In that survey, 78 per cent of parents said they would smack their child to correct their behaviour if they believed it was reasonable to do so.

Ms Bradford said yesterday that the new poll indicated an improvement in attitudes, as a year on only 48 per cent admitted having done so.

"We are well on the way; that is a great result," she said.

But Mr McCoskrie said the new poll showed the percentage opposed to the anti-smacking law had risen to 73 per cent from 62 per cent last year.

Men, people aged more than 60 and those from rural areas opposed it most strongly.

He said only 19 per cent strongly or somewhat agreed with the new law despite the police discretion clause, down from 29 per cent last year.

Almost half of those surveyed - 47 per cent - strongly disagreed with the ban on smacking.

Mr McCoskrie said 85 per cent of those polled - up from 82 per cent a year ago - agreed the new law should be changed to state that parents who gave their children a smack that was reasonable and for the purpose of correction were not breaking the law.

He said the polling sent a clear message to political parties seeking support for this year's election.

When asked whether their support for a party would be affected if it promised to change the law, 37 per cent said they would be more likely to vote for that party. This was up from 31 per cent last year.

The number of people whose vote would be unaffected by a policy to change the law fell from 59 per cent last year to 53 per cent this year.

Mr McCoskrie said the results showed New Zealanders had not been fooled by the anti-smacking lobby's claim that smacking was child abuse.

"They haven't been duped by arguments that children are damaged by reasonable smacking, and they have understood that our unacceptable rate of child abuse has far deeper root causes than a loving parent who corrects their child with a smack on the bottom," he said.

Asked if they thought the new law was likely to help reduce child abuse, 79 per cent said it was not at all likely. This figure was up from 77 per cent last year.

Organisers of a petition to reverse the anti-smacking law change have until the end of next month to gain the number of signatures needed to force a non-binding referendum at this year's election.

Children's Commissioner Cindy Kiro said yesterday that she had not seen the survey.

But she urged people to move on and learn better parenting skills.

"The key message is, 'For goodness sake, can't we move on?' So much energy has been wasted debating this."

Dr Kiro said people needed to learn and be encouraged in positive parenting.

She believed there was a trend away from physical punishment.* The poll was conducted during the week beginning May 12 and has a margin of error of 3.1 per cent.

Sunday, May 25, 2008

Labour and their Last Crusade


“We just don't believe in tax cuts - it's against our fundamental philosophy - after all we are socialists and proud of it.”

Dr Michael Cullen


No wonder Dr Cullen found it difficult to announce his meager tax cuts in this weeks 2008 budget announcement, because his party simply does not fundamentally believe that personal tax cuts are deserved by the working people of this country.

Cullen of course believes that he knows best and that he should hold on to most of your money because he knows best how to spend it. He has done that for 9 years now and simply because it is election year he is giving your money back at an average $16 per week. The price of a ticket to the latest Indiana Jones movie.

We all know that tax cuts do stimulate economies but this is far too little and far too late. Costs imposed on individuals and business by Labour put us way behind where we were in 1999 and most workers would require $200-300 to have them back at status quo.


Related Political Animal reading

Michael Cullen's history on tax cuts comes back to haunt him
Pointing fingers in the playground
At least Robin Hood was honest
The black economy makes sense
Labours State Control out of control


We can exclude so-called "working for families" from the tax equation because it is welfare and we are talking about tax cuts here and not handouts.

The focus of this budget on yet more welfare, through working for families, higher student allowances and unemployment benefits and higher profligate spending on embassies, Governor General house renovations and train set purchases just shows where Labour's priorities lie. The extra spending on these u necessaries far outweighs their meagre cuts in taxes and in these dire economic times you cut back on spending, you don't spend more on luxuries.

That is where the wriggle room for National comes in promising more money going back to those who earn't it in the first place.

A far better tax cut regime would have been the first NZ$10000.00 tax free and a progressive rise to around 20% tax rate to $30,000 of income then a tapering off to 10% after that as incomes go higher-an incentive to work harder/smarter, instead of the current disincentive as the tax rates go higher the more you earn. That ain't going to happen under National either but one can dream nonetheless!

If this was a budget to help pout those in need because of the current blow out in oil, food and service prices then the October 1 cuts would have been brought forward to June 1 but there will be an election not long after Oct 1 and as Michael Cullen rightly says:

My view is that tax cuts are largely offered as a political bribe, not because of beneficial economic or social effects.
Dr Michael Cullen

Cullen's maxim doesn't not apply to National as they have always been consistent on personal tax cuts. They believe in them, they always have and it has always been one of that party's main economic tenants-that is, kiwis know best how to spend their own money, not the government.

A chorus that has been sung by Labour since our economy went pear shaped and reiterated in the budget is that "global economic conditions" have affected our economy. Sure they have, but the largest negative affect by far has been Labour's mis-management of the economy for the last 9 years. Hard work by our businesses and middle classes (those that provide the bulk of taxes) provided the best economic conditions in generations but the good times were squandered by Labour. High taxes, regulation and reckless government spending have led to a doubling of mortgage rates, higher food and energy prices and inflation. These things happed before any global slowdown and it is simply a lie to say otherwise.

What was needed in the 2008 budget was a vision for its people. That is, a strong focus on hard work and personal responsibility and incentives to enable that. What we got was more of the same. Energies channeled on State involvement in our lives and a tax and spend policy that would extend into a Labour 4th term should we all be unlucky enough to have them foisted upon us again for another 3 years.

We will leave the second to last word(because I always get the upper hand over her) to our Aunty Helen:

Tax cuts are a path to inequality. They are the promises of a vision-less and intellectually bankrupt people. Helen Clark, speech to 2000 labour Party Conference

Tax cuts are actually the path to fairness, equity and personal responsibility, the intellectually bankrupt tag goes to those who disagree or would cut personal taxes weeks before an election.





c Political Animal 2008






NZ Stockmarket set for discontent Winter and Summer

Pressure on the New Zealand stockmarket has been coming from the global credit squeeze and the subsequent fallout from that but negative influence from the local economy has also held sway.

We have seen over 10 finance companies collapse over the last 2 years and the local real estate bubble has started to deflate. A record number of people losing their jobs in the last quarter, negative consumer spending, the lowest ever business confidence index and pressure from ever higher food prices, sustained high mortgage rates, record oil prices and continued reckless government spending forecast in the 2008 Budget don't make for a pretty picture at all.

The New Zealand stockmarket has held up reasonably well to this news over recent months but these economic influences are going to impact on real company results come next reporting season.

We have already seen retailers report their latest profits for the March year and few did well, clearly things look even worse for these retailers come October.

Discretionary retail spending is one thing but impacts are going to be felt in every sector of the market; building, real estate,infrastructure and agriculture, but a few. The only listed companies unlikely to be affected at all are our electricity energy retailers and generators-we still need to heat our homes as we hunker down for this winter of discontent.

Long overdue tax cuts come October 1 are too small to stimulate our economy very much, and perhaps the only thing they will stimulate is inflation and therefore mortgage rates because the tax cuts don't come hand in hand with government cost cutting-very important when you have tight economic times.

I don't pick market bottoms, it is almost impossible to do and it can get awfully smelly if gotten wrong, but hopefully if you have picked your portfolio well and add to it as the bargains come then you will be well positioned when the upswing comes.

Mine is still around NZ$25,000.00 in the green but I'm still prepared to get into the red when the proverbial really hits the fan.

Lets hope the spray back doesn't hit a full blown gale!

Share Investor Sites

Share Investor Business News- Get more business news
Share Investor Stockmarket forum -Discuss this topic further

c Share Investor 2008

Thursday, May 22, 2008

Commodities bubble set to burst


Jed Clampett struck crude in his backyard while a hunt'n and he ended up living the high life in Beverly Hills and lived a very happy life with Jethro and the whole clan. He would have been even wealthier today.

As we speak, the price of Nymex crude futures is US $134.40 a BBL, LME copper futures are US$8299 a metric tonne, wheat futures US $787 a bushel and a whole host of the worlds other commodities: gold, steel, aluminum etc are at record prices and show little sign of slowing down their upwards trajectory.

Sure, much of the reason why these commodities keep climbing are because of unprecedented demand from the likes of China and India and the use of soy, maize and other food crops to make Bio-fuel, are having an impact on food prices but one cant underestimate the effect speculators and traders are having on commodity prices.

At just shy of US$135 bucks the oil price has far outstripped the upward pressure that pure demand would put on it and just like any other bubble, the commodity bubble is inevitably going to burst.

When is not clear but just like the stock booms of the past, the tech bubble of 2000 and the current real estate collapse, what goes up inevitably comes down. It would simply defy history for this not to happen.

So what is the problem? you might ask. Well the big headache will be that this sector of the investing market is now getting manifold increases in money being invested; by individuals, hedge funds, banks, pension funds and all the other derivative, bond holding, debt laden fund raising schemes(that I don't completely understand) that were involved in the Sub-Prime mortgage sector.

This wouldn't be so bad if the direct investors were the only ones burned when things go pear shaped but as we know these things have a tendency to effect the real economy and therefore the average man on the street.

These speculators have bailed from the stockmarket and real estate and are now creating another bubble that will burst like Elle May Clampet out of her gingham top.

The consequences of a commodity bubble bursting though will be a whole lot less attractive than Elle May's décolletage.

Share Investor Sites


Share Investor Business News- Get more business news
Share Investor Stockmarket forum -Discuss this topic further
Share Investor Forum's new member GIVEAWAY!!


c Share Investor 2008

Wednesday, May 21, 2008

2008 New Zealand Budget News

Michael Cullen will be making probably his last budget and will be pulling out all the stops to retain the power he and his mate Helen crave.

Come and check out a full wrap of news, opinion and facts from the 2008 New Zealand Budget here

Phil Goff interview on ALT TV




From the individual who tried to have the age of consent for "two consenting teenagers" lowered to 12 now comes the Gaff of all Gaffs, submitting to the pip squeak lefty interviewer Oliver Driver that Labour may lose the 2008 Election.

Whether they think they will lose the election or not, the unwritten rule is not to say you might lose!!

Has Phil Goff gone off his medication or is there an element of truth to his slip-up?

Heavens has this man not learn' t anything in 25 years of sponging off the taxpayer ensconced in his comfy leather chair in Wellington?

Even though I dislike Aunty Helen more than the sane world dislikes Al Gore, she is the best person for Labour and the 2005 election, even though its looking like a big loser

Even though Helen and Phil are bestest mates from Auckland University days, he would have been hauled into the 10th floor office for a dressing down over this.

The video is comedy gold by the way.

2008 New Zealand Budget News


c Political Animal 2008

Monday, May 19, 2008

Why did you buy that stock? [Ryman Healthcare]

With Ryman Healthcare [RYM.NZ] announcing its annual results for the year ending 31 March 2008 to the market on Thursday 22 May 2008, I thought I would elaborate on some of the reasons why I bought the stock in this latest of a series of columns.

Ryman, the operator of approx 3000 retirement units,
up from 900 eight years ago, increased profit by approx 20% in November 2007 and has future plans to grow at a similar rate in the medium term.









Why did you buy that stock?

Why did you buy that stock? [Kiwi Income Property]

Why did you buy that stock? [Hallenstein Glasson]
Why did you buy that stock? [Briscoe Group]
Why did you buy that stock? [Fisher & Paykel Healthcare]

Why did you buy that stock? [Pumpkin Patch Ltd]
Why did you buy that stock? [Michael Hill International]
Why did you buy that stock? [Mainfreight]

Why did you buy that stock? [The Warehouse]
Why did you buy that stock? [Goodman Fielder]Why did you buy that stock? [Auckland Airport]
Why did you buy that stock? [Sky City Entertainment]



The historical aspect of company performance initially attracted me and once again that has got to be down to good management. The company has managed to grow in spectacular fashion without asking shareholders for additional funds and has positioned itself well for the future.

Now there are quite a few different companies that will give you exposure to the New Zealand listed property market and one other listed retirement village operator, Metlifecare [MET.NZ] but I chose Ryman over Metlife because of the size of its current land bank for future use, approx enough for 2000 units.

Although currently the real estate market and property values are suffering from a downturn and that should be reflected in the announcement on Thursday(although having said that shares were up by more than 4% on good volume today possibly indicating something good on Thursday) , the other reason I like Ryman is that its revenue streams are multiple and set to grow dramatically as we all grow older and wish to stay in the more independent villages that the likes of Ryman and Metlife offer.

The first revenue stream is income derived from developing and selling the units, continuing revenue to take care of residents and property and another cut when the unit is on-sold.

This provides a good cashflow for the company to function well and during the tougher times, this makes it easier for the company to sustain their business model.

Another easy to understand business, this encouraged me to buy and its ability to differentiate itself from other single property residences in the form of a strong brand of villages countrywide help keep the competition at bay.

I have held the company for around 3 years and it has cost me approx $1.75 per share. I would purchase more at lower than cost levels, given the ability of my wallet to allow it.





Ryman Healthcare @ Share Investor

Share Price Alert: Ryman Healthcare Ltd 2
Ryman Healthcare Ltd: 2011 Half Year Profit Review
Gordon Macleod on Ryman Healthcare's Australian Expansion
Share Investor Q & A: Ryman Healthcare's CFO Gordon MacLeod
Ryman Healthcare: Interview sneak peak
Ryman Healthcare Ltd: Australian Expansion Needs Care
Share Investor Q & A: Reader Questions to Ryman CFO Gordon Macleod
Long Term View: Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Stock of the Week: Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Why did you buy that stock? [Ryman Healthcare]
Long VS Short: Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Time for retirement?


Discuss Ryman Healthcare @ Share Investor Forum - Register free 





c Share Investor 2008