Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Brian Henry continues to Perjur
Posted by Share Investor at 7:08 AM 2 comments
Labels: Brian Henry, Trust
KFC finally flying
Stepping away from market turbulence for a while(I have decided ignorance is bliss) I thought I would take a look at Restaurant Brands [RBD.NZ] sales figures for the 16 weeks ended 8th September 2008.
Sales are flattish overall for the last quarter for the 3 brands the company operates-Starbucks, Pizza Hut and KFC-but Starbucks is suffering and Pizza Hut continues to bleed cheese all over their dirty backroom floors.
What I want to look at is KFC because what is happening looks good.
It has always been the strongest of the 3 brands but having said that its sales figures have been patchy over the years but there looks like there is finally some reason for optimism for the revival of the brand and sales. For the year to date, KFC sales were $110.4m, while the last quarter KFC sales increased $2.7m to $63.4m, with sales up 5.5 per cent on a same store sales basis.
Back on December 12 I was reasonably skeptical about the "increase in sales" that management were crowing about:
Management are siting "record" sales at its fried chicken restaurants but the facts are that the year they might be comparing this latest result to, 2002, KFC did $177.1 million in sales. If you add the 2007 cumulative 3 quarter total of $151.8 Million to say a generous $48 million final quarter, you are still just shy of $200 million, an approximate 12% rise in dollar sales since 2002. Factoring in a generous 3% annual inflation since then though and sales are 3% down since their record listed year in 2002.
Lets do a little rough calculation to come up with a full KFC sales figure for 2008 based on the first two quarters of sales.
Lets assume another 5% growth of sales for the next two quarters and the company could be looking at as much as $230 million in KFC sales for the full year. That estimated figure would be around 30% more than their record $177.1 million in 2002. Factor in the 3% inflation rate for six years for a cumulative 18% then we see real growth in sales over 6 years of around 12% cumulative or 2% a year above inflation.
Now I have been watching this company for ten years and this is the best result in sales that KFC have achieved(if the sales figures pan out) so management efforts seem to be working.
It is hard to tell whether it is the better menu offerings and pricing or the store refurbishments that have been the reason, but I would put more emphasis on the menu and slightly better service.
Just one rider on the good news about KFC sales. Like other retail businesses, higher day to day costs like Labour, energy and ingredients are keeping a lid on margins.
KFC looks more promising though than it has for more than 10 years.
Shame about Starbucks and Pizza Hut.
Restaurant Brands @ Share Investor
Finger Lick'n Good Management
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Discuss RBD @ Share Investor Forum
Download RBD company reports
Related Amazon Reading
Secret Recipe: Why KFC Is Still Cooking After 50 Years by Robert Darden
Buy new: $15.95 / Used from: $8.52
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c Share Investor 2008
Posted by Share Investor at 12:01 AM 0 comments
Labels: Fast Food, KFC, Restaurant Brands NZ
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
John Key VS Michael Cullen, no contest
We are currently experiencing a global financial fallout that is having effects on our Labour led mismanaged economy and we will clearly need a good person with experience and knowledge of economics and the financial markets then for the position of Prime Minister after the next election.
"Do you want someone like that running the economy when we are going to be going through a difficult period."
He said he believed linking Mr Key back to the massive global company he left eight years ago was legitimate.
"Mr Key has put forward his Merrill Lynch credentials as part an important part of his narrative," he told reporters.
"That doesn't look such a good qualification any longer for running New Zealand's economy."
Of course one might like to have a look at Michael Cullen's qualifications for running an economy.
Yes of course, he has none.
Dr Cullen has a doctorate in History, so the best he can do with our economy is look back at the last 9 years in time to come and wonder how he could have gone so wrong and made so many bad decisions.
Cullen linking Key to a company that he worked for 8 years ago and somehow relating that to its collapse overnight, is desperate in the extreme and already seems to have backfired on him and his party.
Kiwis instinctively loathe this kind of senseless finger pointing but it is Cullen's style.
Instead of playing petty politics in the face of economic uncertainty, Cullen's focus should be instead on his own failures during his 9 years as finance minister and he should be pondering over why he has taxed Kiwis to the tune of 17 billion dollars above the rate of inflation during his tenure, that is $230 per week for the average family, for every week of that 9 years, of extra tax for no discernible extra service from the government.
That money would have been better back in our pockets and would have the economy to the point where New Zealand would have been in a much better position that we are now to ride out the recession.
Shame on you Mr Cullen, you are lower than a sewer rat.
Related Political Animal reading
"Little Prick", Michael Cullen misjudges market turmoil
c Political Animal 2008
Posted by Share Investor at 5:26 PM 1 comments
Labels: John Key VS Michael Cullen
"Little Prick" Michael Cullen misjudges economic turmoil,again
"You don't want a gambler and short-term money market player who will risk billions and billions of dollars. We are seeing in the United States the consequences of that kind of mentality unfolding right now."
That is not only sneering and sticking the knife into people who may have lost money, people mikeyboy calls "rich pricks" but it is patently misleading.
During downturns such as these one of the best things a Government can do is stimulate the economy. Using tax cuts to do this is the perfect way to ease the economic pressures in the short and long-term.
Of course Cullen's antidote to the current problems will be to tax New Zealanders more.
For people out of his depth, such as him-he has a doctorate in history-raising taxes will be a way of "protecting the State" something he loves.
Bugger the proletariat though, he has a different feeling for us.
So if you are expecting this individual to manage New Zealand's way economically well over the next 3 long turbulent years just remember who led you into the current mess.
He has mismanaged the economy for the last 9 years under the best economic conditions for generations, imagine his ideological tax and spend ways under a deep recession.
It would be an unmitigated disaster.
He has had a chance.
Vote the "little prick" out.
c Political Animal 2008
Posted by Share Investor at 6:34 AM 0 comments
Labels: 2008 Election, Market turmoil, michael cullen, tax cuts