Woolworths supermarket consolidation an indicator of a move on The Warehouse?

Just to get my mind off problems related to our 3 week old baby girl stranded in Bangkok I thought I would have a go at discussing The Warehouse Group [WHS.NZ] and its possible connection to the strong rumour over the weekend that Progressive, owner and operator of Foodtown, Countdown and Woolworths supermarkets is going to consolidate their 3 brands into their "low-cost" brand Countdown.

Apart from the fact that I don't think it is a clever idea to ditch two great brands I think this process could be significant in the ongoing battle between Foodstuffs and Woolworths Ltd [WOW.AU] - owner of progressive - for control over the Warehouse.

I will tell you why I think this.

In trying to make things less confusing for consumers, by consolidating brands and possibly saving money on admin and other business costs, Woolworth's Oz could be ready to make their play for the red sheds.

With one supermarket brand instead of three, that leaves room for another brand, like a general merchant such as the Warehouse to fill the brand void.

It is a little bit of a leap in thought I know but it makes alot of sense from a brand and business point of view.

There have been some interesting moves by Wesfarmers Ltd [WES.ASX] in OZ lately - Woolworths Oz main competitor - they are the owner of Coles supermarkets and other brands and they are consolidating their food offers to the cheaper end of town as well.

This consolidation towards the bargain end of retailing is a global phenomenon currently, as businesses react to the economic downturn. As The Warehouse is the largest non grocery retailer in New Zealand and consistently its cheapest, as such it would be a perfect fit for Woolworth's Oz bargain priced Countdown food brand.

There are also a number of Westfield Holdings Ltd [WSF.ASX] mall sites in the country with both a Foodtown and a Countdown and presumably there would be a space left empty in some towns for a different store to take its place.

Two distinct brands covering a massive product reach under one company.

Makes sense to me.

Please keep in mind I am a WHS shareholder.

The Warehouse Group @ Share Investor

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c Share Investor 2009

Share Investor Friday Free for all: Edition 10

Ian gets a Bargain



The Warehouse in Hamilton


Ian Morrice , the head of The Warehouse(WHS) has received good news recently. It was reported in mainstream media today that he is to receive a total remuneration of $3.908 million for the 2007 financial year to June 29.

Nothing wrong with that, Morrice has done well to turn around company fortunes by selling the losing Australian arm and reinvigorating the shop floor by selling more consumer friendly brands in his stores.

Speculation by media in the case of The Warehouse is that one of those targets was an increased share price. Like Auckland Airport(AIA) a few months back managers were given incentives if certain performance targets were met and the link to share price performance was cited by that company.

Both AIA and WHS were/are under takeover speculation so the increase in share price is totally unrelated to the performance by management or the CEO and the incentives paid to those at AIA and Morrice at WHS are clearly undeserved.

If share price increases can be pinpointed to management's achievements then and only then incentives should be paid.

In a closely covered case by business media, the appeal by Foodstuffs, Woolworths and The Warehouse has finished today but a decision is not expected for several weeks.


Playing the game of Monopoly



A Waste Management Trash Unit

Proving that the Commerce Commission can make a ruling in favour of a virtual monopoly business in New Zealand they have cleared Transpacific Industries to buy some businesses off Envirowaste Services.

The company have been trying to buy parts of Envirowaste for some years after being turned down by the CC to buy the whole company a few years ago. That decision followed the purchase of Waste Management by the Australian trash giant and the approval of that purchase by the commission.

Transpacific was yesterday cleared to buy EnviroWaste's solid waste collection businesses in four centres and solid waste businesses in two others.

That decision could shed some light on a decision pending before the commission on whether The Warehouse could be purchased by two dominant retail industry players.

Oils Well?

The recent climb in the price of oil from the low of $US70 per Bbl to over $96 today and the worry over the price is a complex tale of inflation and increases in productivity and technology.

While the price is clearly just below the inflation adjusted April 1980 record price of US$101.70 there are reasons why we shouldn't worry too much, yet.

Since those heady days individuals and companies have increased productivity manifold times and the technology that we now use, for industry and personal use, allows the consumption of far less of the black stuff.

Our cars get more millage to the gallon/litre for a start and vehicles are one of the biggest users of oil, especially you Americans!!

As a footnote to this story, no the world isn't running out of oil. The "Peak Oil" theory is as mythical as global warming and the tooth fairy The left are mining P.O. to advantage their nonsense and collect more taxes.


Acres of Shopping


The new 210 million dollar Westfield at Albany, New Zealand


The expansion of retailing in New Zealand looks set to continue for the foreseeable future if the plans of the mall giant Westfield (WDC) are anything to go by.

Westfield has just opened a giant mall, a former apple orchard from where the "Albany Beauty" apple gets its name, in Albany, just a stones throw from where I live.

That new mall has 5.2ha of indoor floor space and although it was opened yesterday, the 1800-seat Sky City(SKC) Cinemas, will not open until next year.

The company have 12 malls in New Zealand and look set to continue expansion of not only Albany, where there are acres of land to do so, but malls in Newmarket, Auckland and Christchurch as well.

Construction of other shopping precincts unrelated to Westfield, in the Albany area, are going ahead stridently as the population in the area expands rapidly.

Westfield look to have a great future in this country as its covered mall shopping areas don't have the same dominance as they do in such regions as its home market, Australia and the home of the mall, the USA.



NZX Market Wrap

New Zealand shares dropped more than 1 per cent today following significant declines on Wall Street, but the local market's fall was smaller than for those around the region.

The benchmark NZSX-50 index closed down 53.8 points at a one-and-a-half month low of 4154.13. Turnover totalled $113.4 million, with 24 rises and 80 falls.

Telecom shed 2.6 per cent, or 11c, to a more than two-month low of 417 after its quarterly result today. The company said net profit for the three months to the end of September were $225 million, unchanged from a year earlier. But profits from continuing operations were up 29 per cent.

The mobile outlook wasn't good, some of the ways they got some profit seemed to be from lower tax and one-off things like the Southern Cross dividend. Obviously the combination of a bad day and a poor result.

Air New Zealand was one of few leaders to post a rise, up 3c at 215 despite ongoing oil price rises.

Fletcher Building fell 32c to 1168 and continued its dramatic fall over the last week, Contact Energy was down 4c at 900, Fisher & Paykel Appliances lost 8c to 348, F&P Healthcare was 6c lower at 317, and Auckland Airport lost a cent to 287.

Sky City was down 6c at 539, while Sky TV rose a cent to 570.

Smaller stocks to rise were Methven, up 6c at 246, NZX, up 8c at 948, Nuplex, up a cent at 756, and carpet maker Cavalier, 2c higher at 310.

Pumpkin Patch was down 6c at 293 after I bought some earlier this week at 309, Michael Hill lost 20c to 1025, Ebos fell 8c to 537, Freightways was down 7c at 383, and Mainfreight fell 3c to 732.

C Share Investor & NZPA 2007

NZ Dollar Wrap


Reuters currency rates

4.45 today 5pm yesterday

NZ dlr/US dlr US76.25c US77.11c
NZ dlr/Aust dlr A82.99c A82.91c
NZ dlr/euro 0.5277 0.5335
NZ dlr/yen 87.60 88.99
NZ dlr/stg 36.65p 37.13p
NZ TWI 70.61 71.32
Australian dollar US91.90c US93.08c
Euro/US dollar 1.4444 1.4462
US dollar/yen 114.90 115.37

Disclosure: I own WHS Shares

C Share Investor 2007