Wednesday, December 18, 2013

Share Investor's 2014 Stock Picks

2013 has been another great year for stocks rising almost 15% to roughly 4700 on the index so forget about what might happen and suspend belief for a nanosecond and take a squiz at what I have for you.

The stock picking monkey has been very busy this year with a few surprises.

This year the monkey had a really hard go at it but managed to get through quite a few interesting picks.

This year I have picked stocks based on nothing except value of the stock based on where I think it will go.

Please keep in mind dear readers that the picks are my own and they reflect my investment philosophy and not necessarily anyone else's.

This year I have sold some stocks, PPL, HLG, MHI, BGR and others, because I had to - My ex-wife said so - and some of them had run their natural course, about $110,000.00.

My picks are primarily based on a long-term view, regardless of the current short to medium term market turmoil and economic uncertainty, I pick a down year for 2014.

NB: Since I think most of my portfolio consist of the best stocks on the New Zealand market, I found it difficult to pick stocks outside my realm of self interest. This year I will give you the individual number of shares I have of each stock.

[RYM.NZX] Ryman Healthcare has got to be the pick of the bunch. One that I have held for at least 6 years I bought this one for $1.97 and it has returned at least 400%. I have 5000.

This had another record year this year of a 22% profit lift on last year of $58.5m.

It is looking good for the short to medium term but could face some hurdles when its housing stock needs modernizing because it is the company that owns the stock.

The big thing of recent weeks is the fact that their foray into Australia looks to have gone better than planned and they are going into the second stage of this development. They are also looking at another site.

This is not a stock that I'm currently buying but new investors could not find a better stock to get into.

Id climb into this one with gay abandon, especially if the Oz experience mirror ours and we find that out in March/April 2004.

[MFT.NZX] Mainfreight Ltd is only the second stock of mine that I deem is worth another glance in 2014.

Mainfreight has had an up and down year in respect of results with Novembers report indicating a profit up 7.7%  at $29.87m but some warnings about various divisions struggling next year.

I am however picking a stellar year for Mainfreight, with revenue up on last year and profits up at least 10% on most divisions. Why do I say this? Simply because of the way Mainfreight is designed for individual success, I am picking 2014 for Mainfreight to finally get things together and for that individual stuff to combine and really make things hot in 2014.

Buy on anything close to $10, with a view to long term gains.

[FPH.NZX] Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd is a stock that I have picked for each stock pick series and here the reason why, well several reasons why it should be in your portfolio picks for next year.

This years profit result, announced mid November was a record at NZ$303.9 million, 14% above the prior comparable period as a result of strong revenue growth in the company’s two major product groups and that is set to continue next year.

The revenue is growing and set to grow further in 2014 and set to double in 5 years - it grew around 15% this year and is set to outstrip that in 2014.

Our dollar certainly cannot stay where it is for 2014, it is set for a big re-ratng because of interest rate hikes.

The product range is huge for 2014, and plenty of funds will be used to produce more for the new year.

Get in at under $4.00.

[SKC.NZX] Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd has had a good 2013, with a  FY 2013 profit at the hands of an excellent CEO who was able to win the Govts (national and local) over their plans for a convention centre and a number of strategies planned and executed to produce pleasing results for shareholders. The share price of the company has not however tracked its increased fortunes and has been trading in 2013 from $3.50 to just over $4.50.

It has also won the Govt over in Adelaide with a major revamp of that particular centre. with lower taxes as part of the deal.

This and the fact that all of their assets are competition free mean this one is probably the buy of all my picks this year.

Its had a profit downgrade on the 17th of  December but these things happen it will shine again - spectacularly .

At $3.60 this share is cheap, get it while you can.

[CNU.NZX] Chorus Ltd. This may seem an anathema to my usual picks and it is, it is purely a spectator play because I see it as very cheap at $1.45 and worth releasing at about $2.20-$2.30.

Most notably its asset backing is $1.21, so that leaves 24c for intangibles and that looks very cheap at that price.

No matter what the larger market may say about the dividends - and if they come at all watch for another rise - they will come again soon, and any way your not going to be in long enough to know or care about those.

Get them while you can.

[HLG.NZ] Hallensteins Glassons Ltd used to be a company I held for about 5 years until my wife considered it surplus to my requirements any way I made about an additional $4000 from a $2500 outlay. Considered that this had had its day. But wait bad news and its time to go sniffing again.

Hallenstein Glassons has warned investors it expects its first-half net profit to fall by 20 per cent compared to last year. The NZX-listed clothing retailer said it expected to post a net profit of $8 million for the six months ending February 1, a decrease from last year's interim net profit of $10.4m.

There has been the talk of international competition from various websites, tax free, and they may have a point, but this has happened before and Hallensteins has aways managed to counter this and get back margins.

I have done this before with this share and have held it overnight and have held long term, either way you will get your money back.

Buy up to $4.50.

[HNZ.NZX] Heartland Bank New Zealand Ltd has been a bank only since last December and its shares were trading last week at around 85c, what they are trading at now, below their net tangible asset value of 85.2c. Assuming the assets are valued accurately, the shares are therefore relatively cheap.

Profitability is low, sure, but it is improving. In the coming year, it is expecting net profit of $34m to $37m.

As a new bank, Heartland has been given more onerous capital requirements by the Reserve Bank than the established players. Its tier-one capital ratio - basically the equity as a percentage of risk-weighted assets - must exceed 12 per cent, while the requirement for ANZ and Westpac is 6 per cent.
They all exceed the minimum by some distance, but Heartland naturally has a little less headroom. Its tier-one capital ratio at balance date was 14.8 per cent, providing a buffer of 2.8 percentage points over the minimum.

You would do well to get them below $1, get them while you can.

[SUM.NZX] Summerset Group Holdings Ltd has a strong development pipeline for future growth. Five villages are currently under construction, including the recently acquired site in Dunedin. Summerset also has three quality land sites in Karaka, Katikati and Hobsonville and is continually evaluating new sites to support the development of further villages based on what is the sheer demand for units.

In 2012, 160 retirement units were completed at four of Summerset’s developing sites –Hastings, Nelson, Dunedin and Warkworth. Summerset now have 1,646 retirement units and 327 care beds.

The company has also purchased two new sites in Auckland: 7.6 hectares of waterfront land in Hobsonville and a prime 3.9 hectare site at Ellerslie. These sites bring their land bank to 1,400 retirement units and more than 400 care beds. The one in Hobsonville should be a cracker, pure waterfront, prime position, plenty of land for decent sized footprint.

This should do what  [RYM.NZX] & [MET.NZ] have done and defy all expectations and take off depending on what they all do come reporting season.

Get them while you can.


YUM! Brands Inc



A pick from 2010, 2011,2012, & 2013 Yum ! Brands Inc has consistently grown each and every year and achieved a 40000 th store opening for 2013 and with more tasty growth to come in 2014 and beyond from China & India still make this company a Finger Lickin proposition. It will never be cheaper. China is the BIG growth story for 2014.

Conclusion & Outlook for 2014

2014 will be an interesting year for stocks, will they do what they did in 2013, unlikely. What we will have to wait and see is what the USA will do with unwinding there debt - will they,wont they - how China reacts to that and how Europe will do has a major effect on that.

As an investor, you must simply find value in the companies you invest in. Its out there, you just have to do a little research yourself.

You may not find this approach pleasing, if you don't find a broker and put your money with him or her.

These are my picks.

*Just an added footnote. Please feel free to post your own stock picks for 2014. The only requirement is that you say why and declare any financial interest. Post them below at the bottom of this piece or click here.

Disclosure : I own SKC, FPH, MFT, RYM, CNU, HLG, SUM shares in the Share Investor Portfolio.

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c Share Investor 2012, 2013, 2014

Monday, November 25, 2013

Share Picks for 2014

I will be doing a Share Investor stock picks for 2014.

They have proven to be the most popular thing on this site by far, and I don't want to disappoint.

Get your brain engaged and your wallets ready....

Thanks SB for putting the right link up, here it is 

Friday, November 22, 2013

Richard Hurley from Auckland City Brokers

Remember this name, Richard Hurley, Managing Director of Auckland City Brokers and on the recommended advisor's page on the Good Returns website Richard is described as having:

"18 years of experience in the Finance and Investment industry and has lived in Mt Eden for 25 years. Your satisfaction is guaranteed".

And his company Auckland City Brokers is there to:

"To protect our reputation and your peace of mind, we deal only in quality products.

We aim to implement strategies that will build your wealth and produce income streams in retirement".

All good inspiring, bodice ripping stuff but lets see how this stacks up.

Richard advised one of my elderly retired clients to invest a large sum of money into various ING funds that went belly up last year - he got an upfront fee for selling it to this person.

He advised on the basis that the investment was safe and low risk. This is not the case at all. That fact is that some of these funds were investing in derivatives in the United States, some of the riskiest investments (more like a roulette wheel) that one can make.

My client was assured by Richard that the investment was very safe.

Two days before ING announced a freeze of the funds this individual asked Richard to redeem the investment because of its dropping value but Richard laughed at this request and told his client not to worry because investments changed in value all the time - said said he was speaking to her like she was a fool.

Richard has refused to take responsibility for his selling of ING products to this person on the basis that it was low risk and turned out to be high risk and has left his former client in the lurch in terms of her getting all her money back.

We can imagine the rest.

There was much heartbreak, stress and tears over the following months and in the recounting of the facts today my client was close to tears a number of times.

Fast forward to the offer from ANZ/ING to investors in their failed funds of a 60% return of their capital into a cash call account at just over 8% but with a legal stipulation that those that accept the offer will not sue ANZ/ING or can you believe it anyone who advised people to invest in the fund.

You would have to ask yourself why is ANZ/ING protecting advisers, when they are not part of their corporation. The answer you might get, like me, is that advisers might know more than the public does about dodgy dealings in relation to what went on at ING/ANZ and a legal way of shutting the whole thing down is the best way to keep a lid on things.

I didn't sign anything so I aint obliged to shut my gob.

My client accepted the ING/ANZ offer because the individual is getting on in life and hasn't got the energy to waste precious time and money going through a long expensive legal process that might not be winnable. Life is too short and all that stuff.

Financial Advisers (and I use that term in its loosest sense) like Richard are going to get away with their misleading advice because people like my confidant are either afraid, ashamed or legally obligated not to talk about it and that is a crime, morally and legally.

Richard Hurley from Auckland City Brokers and his ilk have advised and made money off the elderly under false pretenses in cases like the one above. They have lost nothing, others have lost everything they have worked their lives for and now live with a high degree of uncertainty in retirement.

Mr Hurley you have fallen well short of being a good financial adviser.

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c Share Investor 2009

Monday, November 4, 2013

Len Doest Care

Len Brown. Photo / Brett Phibbs
By Matthew Theunissen Email Matthew

Mr Brown, that's what well call him here has no time for those in the media who wish to pursue him for his head.

But that is what we want, his head on a plate.
11:00 AM Wednesday Oct 30, 2013
Len Brown. Photo / Brett Phibbs
Len Brown says the career of a mayor ebbs and flows, and the wave of negative publicity that has swamped him since news of his two-year extra-marital affair broke will pass.

"I'm just wanting to get on with my job," he said.

"I choose to put those matters where they belong and that's between myself, my wife and our family. Aucklanders have basically said 'that's something you need to deal with'. They want me to lead and that's what I'm going to do."

In one of his few public appearances since it was revealed he had a two-year affair with aspiring politician Bevan Chuang, the Auckland mayor this morning drew the pools for the upcoming NRL Nines tournament taking place in the city in February.

The usually vivacious mayor appeared subdued as he mingled with the crowd, and spoke with special guests including rugby league star Willie Mason and Sir Peter Leitch.

Speaking to APNZ afterwards, Mr Brown would reveal little about the effect the scandal has had on his political career, but implied such things were par for the course in his line of work.

However, he said this had not been directed at him as a result of the sex scandal but because of Housing New Zealand tenant evictions in Glen Innes and Panmure.

"Otherwise it was a great night." 

Mr Brown would not comment on who may have been responsible for revealing the sex scandal, or revelations Rodney National MP Mark Mitchell had made comments about politicians "with skeletons in their closets" that could have led the mayor's camp to believe the affair would be made public.

"I don't want to go into that either. I want to leave that where it should lie. And clearly, after two weeks of intense media coverage Aucklanders are saying it's time for us to move on."

Mr Brown said he was "not interested" in whether support for him as mayor had been impacted by the scandal.

"I'm not interested in that either. What Aucklanders said in the election was 'look, we like the general direction, you're doing a good job, keep it up'. That's what I'm going to continue to do."

Mr Brown said he had not been in contact with Ms Chuang since their affair was revealed.

Not interested in the publics view of him, that's a far cry just two weeks ago during election time, that's all he was interested.