My pick for November based on who I talk to from a wide variety of social , political and economic backgrounds at the moment is another creaming for Labour with the ability of National to govern alone if they so choose.
I picked the National landslide in 2008 when others were picking a close election and I get the feeling again, anecdotally, that voters see little merit in what Goff has to offer and that national are performing well despite the economic situation.
There appears to be a few disgruntled waifs and strays argueing from the political pulpit but by and large they didn't vote for National anyway so the argument that these people are so annoyed they might vote for some of the smaller parties as a protest vote holds little merit.
Sun, 20 Feb 2011 6:00p.m.
By 3 News Political Editor Duncan Garner - go here for the full article from 3 news
Our first 3 News Reid Research poll in the election year.
The numbers show:
- National sheds a point to 54.6
- Labour drops back to 30.9
- Greens are strong at 8.2
- New Zealand First moved from 1.9 to 3.3 – the highest level of support for Winston Peters’ party since 2008.
“I think it shows the public are rewarding us for being honest and upfront,” says Mr Key.
“We are saying we are going to spend less money and a partial sell down of assets.”
The other minor parties remain very minor:
- The Maori Party is 2.3
- ACT continues its collapse to 0.6
- While not one person indicated support for Peter Dunne’s United Future party
In the Preferred Prime Minister rankings:
- Mr Key sheds five points, still high at 49.1
- Mr Goff stays flat at 6.8 – no movement
- Mr Peters moves up to 4.9 – the highest in more than 3 years
- While former Prime Minister Helen Clark still has a few supporters
So 3 News asked voters how the leaders are performing:
- Mr Key slips almost 7 percent to 69.6 percent.
He won’t want that to become a regular feature, and he’s up amongst those who think he is a doing a poor job.
- For Mr Goff, just one in four voters think he is doing a good job – the numbers are down from the last 3 News Reid Research poll.
But the emerging factor in this poll is Winston Peters.
He has still got some way to go, but he’s made a move, without saying much at all.
“I don’t trust him,” says Mr Key.
It will be a nervous five months for the Prime Minister if Mr Peters makes it back – it could make Mr Key’s chance of governing again that little bit weaker.
3 Newsare performing:
- Mr Key slips almost 7 percent to 69.6 percent.
He won’t want that to become a regular feature, and he’s up amongst those who think he is a doing a poor job.
- For Mr Goff, just one in four voters think he is doing a good job – the numbers are down from the last 3 News Reid Research poll.
