Tuesday, August 17, 2010

DNZ Property Ltd : Every Dog has its day

The debut of DNZ Property Ltd [DNZ.NZX] on the NZX yesterday while no means setting the world on fire did slightly better than I expected by finishing the day at 99c per share on good volume.

The issue price was 97c.

The true value of the company was hard to determine during the IPO process because of the Pro -forma figures used in the prospectus and the fickle value placed on real estate in the current environment but the market seems to have decided that value was there and bought additional shares on the stocks debut.

I personally don't think the company is worth as much as the market values it at (I am a contrarian bastard in most facets of my life!) and wouldn't want to do that until I saw a year or two of operating performance from the company.

Like most commercial property companies , DNZ is going to struggle in the current environment. Empty commercial space will put pressure on lease arrangements over the next year or two and I doubt whether prospectus promises will be attained.

There will be value in this stock but that will lie in a much lower share price given the uncertainty of the company and its future in the highly competitive commercial property market.



Related


DNZ Prospectus

About DNZ

DNZ Property @ Share Investor

DNZ Property IPO: It stinks

Discuss DNZ @ Share Investor Forum


From Fishpond.co.nz

Every Bastard Says No: The 42 Below Story

Buy Every Bastard Says No - The 42 Below Story, by Geoff Ross & Justine Troy & more @ Fishpond.co.nz

Fishpond



c Share Investor 2010

Monday, August 16, 2010

Share Investor Q & A: Put Questions to Briscoe Group CEO Rod Duke

I have just submitted a lengthy Share Investor Q & A to The Warehouse Group Ltd [WHS.NZX] CEO Ian Morrice and it should be published in a few weeks. (please note the WHS Q & A will be embargoed until the 2010 full year profit announcement on around 10 -15 Sept)

The thing that was missing unfortunately were some questions from my readers. Only two were submitted. It cant be for lack of readers because this blog is heading for record numbers for August.

So come on you lazy lot, you have a chance to redeem yourselves by submitting your questions to me for an upcoming Share Investor Q & A with the CEO of Briscoe Group Ltd [BGR.NZX] Rod Duke.

Briscoe Group hasn't been immune from the current recession and its impact on the overall retail sector but it has fared better than most. With no debt and healthy cash reserves in the bank, the company, while not setting the stockmarket on fire since its listing earlier this decade, has been around for decades and Duke has managed it well since he founded it.

Intensely private, he tends to let his company results talk for him, I approached the company and asked he would be interested in participating in a Q & A.

He kindly said yes.

Find more out about the man, his company, his opinions on business and retailing and where specifically Briscoe Group might be heading.

To submit a question either email me here or leave your question at the bottom of this post here.


Disc
I own BGR shares in the Share Investor Portfolio




Share Investor Q & As


Ryman CFO Gordon Macleod
Ecoya's Geoff Ross
Xero's Rod Drury
Mainfreight MD Don Braid
Burger Fuel Director Josef Roberts
Sky City CEO, Nigel Morrison


Briscoe Group @ Share Investor


Long Term View: Briscoe Group Ltd
Briscoe's Cash worth looking at
Why did you buy that stock? [Briscoe Group]
Rod Duke's Pumpkin Patch gets bigger

Discuss BGR @ Share Investor Forum - Register free



Related Amazon Reading

Xero for Dummies (For Dummies (Business & Personal Finance)) by Smith, Heather (2013) PaperbackXero for Dummies (For Dummies (Business & Personal Finance)) by Smith, Heather (2013) Paperback
Buy used from: $18.48



Adding a Xero to Your Practice: Practical Advice for Accountants Looking to Be Successful in the CloudAdding a Xero to Your Practice: Practical Advice for Accountants Looking to Be Successful in the Cloud by Doug Sleeter
Buy new: $14.95 / Used from: $13.73
Usually ships in 24 hours





c Share Investor 2010

Freightways Ltd: 2010 Full Year Profit Analysis

The Full Year 2010 Freightways Ltd [FRE.NZX] Profit out this morning is a case of steady as she goes, with a few points to elaborate on along the way.

The 2010 full year net profit of $23,164 million is down by 33% (after a one-off $5.7 million balance sheet tax charge due to recent Government tax changes) on the 2009 result and is 2% down on last year if the tax change is excluded.


Revenue was down by 3% to NZ $328,469 million, indicating a flat economy.

A dividend of 7c is to be paid compared with last years 8c, so little attention has been made to keeping cash within the business. Very important at this time in my not so humble opinion.

Financing costs for a sizable company debt have also been considerable but a capital raising from earlier last year has been used to pay down some bank debt so this cost was lessened for the period.

In comments about capital management, nothing was said about the sizable dividend being paid when profit is down. The company should focus on paying down debt instead of a generous dividend and it should have been cut by more than it has. Other companies have done this during 2009 and will again in 2011 and for Freightway's management not to address this is poor considering economic constraints surrounding listed company spending.

The courier businesses have again been hit the hardest, while the company's purchase of document management businesses over the last several years continues to pay off as these are achieving growth and management indicate this will continue through 2011.

Freightway's management are cautious about company prospects for the coming year but indicate another tough year ahead and a focus on costs savings as things remain flat. Given economic uncertainty I would have to say that business operations and therefore revenue will probably remain subdued over the 2011 period. This is without taking into account another possible dip in the economy. Profit levels will depend strongly on cost savings until the New Zealand economy bounces back and real growth for the company can return.

Overall, the full year 2010 result has been a good indicator of a patchy 2009 and an indicator that there is more uncertainty to come for Freightways. The same can also be said about the New Zealand economy as a whole.

8 out of 10.

Disc
I own FRE shares in the Share Investor Portfolio

Freightways @ Share Investor

Long Term View: Freightways Ltd
Freightways Ltd: 2010 Half Year profit commentary
Freightways Ltd: 2009 Full Year profit commentary
Freightway's Capital Raising more of the same crap for small shareholders
Long VS Short: Freightways Ltd
Freightway's keeps delivering

Why did you but that stock: Freightways Ltd
Freightway's delivers
Freightway's packages up a good result

Discuss FRE @ Share Investor Forum

Download FRE company Reports



From Fishpond.co.nz


Every Bastard Says No: The 42 Below Story

Buy Every Bastard Says No - The 42 Below Story, by Geoff Ross & Justine Troy & more @ Fishpond.co.nz

Fishpond



c Share Investor 2010

Profit Announcements: 16 - 20 August 2010

With the following companies announcing their profit results this week, with Freightways Ltd [FRE.NZX] kicking off the week at 10.00am this morning. Investors will not only be looking for some decent results but as usual and more keenly will be looking at indicators from management as to where they may be heading in 2011.



IssuerPeriodExpected Release Date

Freightways Limited [FRE.NZX]Full Year16/08/2010

The New Zealand Refining Company Ltd [NZR.NZX]Half Year17/08/2010

Fletcher Building Ltd[FBU:NZX] Full Year 18/08/2010

NZX Limited [NZX.NZX]
Half Year17/08/2010

SkyCity Entertainment Group [SKC.NZX]Full Year17/08/2010

Port of Tauranga [POT.NZX]Full Year19/08/2010
*Downer EDi LimitedFull Year19/08/2010

Contact Energy Limited [CEN.NZX]Full Year20/08/2010

Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited [ANZ.NZX]Full Year20/08/2010

I will be paying interest to FRE and SKC especially as they are major parts of the Share Investor Portfolio but also looking closely at NZR, POT and CEN.

The Freightways result is a good bell-weather for the wider economy, POT will indicate how exports are doing, the NZR result will give shareholders there an indicator of whether that company has or will make it out of their recent slump in fortunes. The CEN result will be indicative of wholesale power prices and their impact on the consumer and the SKC one will outline a number of issues currently on the horizon for the company.


Related

Full list of coming results
- NZX Market Diary



Recent Share Investor Reading

Discuss this topic @ Share Investor Forum


c Share Investor 2010