Friday, May 7, 2010

Greek tragedy will have sequels

"The arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and assistance to foreign hands should be curtailed, lest Rome fall."
Marcus Tullius Cicero

So one of the "PIIIGS" (the extra I's added by me is for Ireland and Iceland which has already disappeared up its own backside)has collapsed in a heap of its own debt and the local Greek population has gone feral because they don't want to face the reality that they haven't worked hard enough, borrowed too much money and really have little hope of paying back their creditors. Cutting back on wastage now is almost too late. Their debt restructure or austerity plan will have them owing more debt in years to come.

Could we see this coming though?

I and others have been banging on (see links below)about countries with high debt levels either servicing loans and having to eventually pay back what they have borrowed after the hedonism of the last 10 years or so (true the PIIIGS with the recent exception of Ireland have always lead their economic lives close to the trough edge) but people seem to have swallowed the line of that great economist, business leader and socialist, Barack Obama when he proclaimed he could see the "green shoots of recovery" in the US economy.

Well those green shoots were provided courtesy of more debt (on top of the debt accrued over the last 10 years or so and for the PIIGs even longer) ladled out with some very large buckets and the countries that provided those borrowed buckets of cash are now having to face the prospect of servicing that debt and clearly some of them cannot.

Those green shoots were courtesy of a false debt laden spring and the PIIGS are now drowning in the mud left behind.

What is clear is that the PIIGS are just the tip of the iceberg and what lurks beneath that berg is a sequel of events that will make Titanic look like a bath toy.

Look to the US for a blockbuster.

The DOW plummeted almost 1000 points this morning on fears over a European economic meltdown but at time of writing this was down 385 points.

*Footnote: It appears that the majority of the DOW plunge was due to a futures trading error that led to a wholesale sell-off.


"Cannot people realize how large an income is thrift?
"
Marcus Tullius Cicero


Related Share Investor Reading

NZX 50 Gross Index: Ready for a Correction?
The Definition of Insanity
The $700 Billion Question: How much will the taxpayer bailout affect my investments?
Free Market to Pollies: We dont want you!
Global credit squeeze: There is no free lunch
The global economy looks bad now? But wait there's more
Current credit crunch a blessing is disguise
Leaders must come clean over losses to restore faith
Market Meltdown: I can smell the fear from here
Don't dare use the "D" word
Strap yourself in baby
Will the Stalactites hold?


Recommended Amazon Reading

The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A     Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition)
The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) by Benjamin Graham
Buy new: $14.95 / Used from: $7.50
Usually ships in 24 hours

Buy The Intelligent Investor & more @ Fishpond.co.nz

Fishpond


c Share Investor 2010

Thursday, May 6, 2010

Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd: Download full Company Analysis

Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd [HLG.NZ] financial's including a full collection of data out May 6 2010 courtesy of Aspect Huntley/ASB Securities.

This is a series I will do for the Share Investor Portfolio and other NZX listed companies.

You will find balance sheets, ratios, charts, shareholder returns, 10 year analysis, broker recommendations, substantial shareholders, commentary and company details, forecasts and all the HLG info you could need to make a decision whether to invest or not. Download the full package at Share Investor Forum - you must join to download. It is free and takes less than a minute.


Disc I own HLG shares in the
Share Investor Portfolio



Share Investor Portfolio Company Analysis Series


Auckland Airport Ltd

Michael Hill International Ltd
Xero Ltd

Hallenstein Glasson @ Share Investor


Hallenstein Guidance not indicative of wider retail recovery

Stock of the Week: Hallenstein Glasson
Hallenstein Glasson Australian expansion needs expert execution
Why did you buy that stock? [Hallenstein Glasson]

Discuss HLG @ Share Investor Forum




c Share Investor 2010





Rod Drury ready for the long-haul with Xero

I take a number of things away from an interview I did with Xero Ltd [XRO.NZ] Rod Drury but the two things that stick in my mind are his deep passion for the business and the fact that he is in it for the long haul.

Previous to this disclosure most of us thought he was trying to build a brand to eventually flog it off but Rod has some long term goals to achieve:


Share Investor
- "Was the intention of yourself and the Xero board to build the company up as a brand with the express purpose of selling, along the lines of say 42 Below?"


Rod Drury - "No. Having sold businesses before, this time we want to grow a long term business. The market is really just starting and with accelerators like iPads, Google's up coming Chrome operating system we think that things are only just getting exciting."


While there is some merit in building a brand for someone else to buy in the short-term, more money will be made from a business for its shareholders - if it is based on good premise and run well - when the the long-term game is played. Xero has an advantage there playing the long term game.


Rod's overriding passion for his business is a motivation for those around him and the business as a whole because it provides an impetus for employees to manage themselves in a similar way and radiates out to Xero consumers - hey passion is contagious!!


I still wouldn't touch Xero with a barge pole though, not because I don't think the company is a good one, but as an investment it is one of the riskier ones for those individuals who understand the sector in which Xero operates. I still don't fully understand Xero and what they do and I like to invest in companies in which I know what they do and how they do it. I think you have to be a tech head or a user of Xero products to be able to know it well. Then if you are in that position and do know the company well and therefore see where they are going I dont blame you for investing .


Having said that I will reserve my final judgment for the promised profit for Xero in 2011 indicated by Xero management at their annual meeting last year.


I would like to publicly thank Rod for participating in the Q & A, for whatever you think of his company we don't get enough leaders of our public companies willing to put themselves under this much scrutiny.


I enjoyed the experience immensely.



Share Investor Q & A Series

Auckland Airport's Simon Moutter

Warehouse Group CEO Ian Morrice
Briscoe Group CEO Rod Duke
Ryman Healthcare's CFO Gordon Macleod
Ecoya's Geoff Ross
Xero's Rod Drury
Mainfreight MD Don Braid
Burger Fuel Director Josef Roberts
Sky City CEO, Nigel Morrison
Sky City Entertainment: CEO Nigel Morrison discusses 2010 HY
Convention Centre proposal interview with Sky City CEO Nigel Morrison


Xero @ Share Investor


Share Investor Interview: Xero's Rod Drury

Xero Ltd: Download full Company Analysis
Rod Drury on Xero and Growing Business
Xero set for surprise to the Market?
Love Xero?
Share Investor's 2010 Stock Picks
Stock of the Week: Xero Ltd

Discuss Xero @ Share Investor Forum


Download Xero Company Reports







c Share Investor 2010





Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Xero Ltd: Download full Company Analysis

Xero Ltd [XRO.NZ] financial's including a full collection of data out 23 February 2010 courtesy of Aspect Huntley/ASB Securities.

This is a series I will do for the Share Investor Portfolio and other NZX listed companies.

You will find balance sheets, ratios, charts, shareholder returns, 10 year analysis, broker recommendations, substantial shareholders, commentary and company details, forecasts and all the AIA info you could need to make a decision whether to invest or not. Download the full package at Share Investor Forum - you must join to download. It is free and takes less than a minute.


Share Investor Portfolio Company Analysis Series


Auckland Airport Ltd

Michael Hill International Ltd


Xero @ Share Investor

Share Investor Interview: Xero's Rod Drury

Share Investor Q & A: Reader Questions to Xero's Rod Drury
Rod Drury on Xero and Growing Business
Xero set for surprise to the Market?
Love Xero?
Share Investor's 2010 Stock Picks
Stock of the Week: Xero Ltd

Discuss XRO @ Share Investor Forum
Listen to Rod Drury Interview




c Share Investor 2010