Monday, August 18, 2008

Freightways keeps delivering during recession

Given the bleak economic conditions over the last year, one could forgive Dean Bracewell, Managing Director, and his team for underachieving in their management of Freightways Ltd [FRE.NZ] , the New Zealand courier and document management company, but they have managed the business to a good profit result to 30 June 2008 out today.

A 5% increase in Full Year profit to just over NZ$32 million, on gross revenue of $324 million, up 14%, shows that operating costs have had an impact on the bottom line.

As canvassed before on Share Investor, Freightway's movement to diversify income streams in terms of new business areas, other than their courier businesses, has paid off-in New Zealand and Australia.

Freightways entry into document management has proven a good move for the company:
"The information management business currently contributes approximately 15% of Freightways' revenue and earnings. The performance of this business has been outstanding".
From operating result , 18 Aug 2008.

This sector is a more prominent area of business in North America and Europe. Freightway's experience in their well managed document storage and destruction business in New Zealand and Australia will provide a good base for them to grow revenue and profit in the future.

According to some business analysts, a transport related business like Freightways can be looked at as a wider barometer of how the economy is going as a whole. I would argue though that careful cost management and forward planning has helped the company avoid the pitfalls of an economy in a steep decline and that isn't as easy to do as it sounds when faced with macro economic pressures that one cannot control.

Petrol, surprise government road user charges and labour increases will continue to crimp the bottom line profit in the coming 2009 year.

The company characteristically have a subdued outlook for the following year and it is a sign of good management that they do this. Many a company, especially in hard economic times don't give a true picture of their businesses as they look forward, only to disappoint come reporting time.

Over the last several months, the share price has been affected badly. From a high of nearly 5 bucks in 2007, and a low just recently of just under NZ$2.90, nervous markets have struggled to determine a realistic price for this company-so what else is new.

At a net return of just over 6% on today's share price, it is a healthy return for a well run company with good future prospects and falling interest rates for other investments. Freightways is worth a look when considering a long term investment.

Excellent management, an easy to understand business and a good dividend delivers the goods for me.

Disclosure I own FRE shares


Freightways @ Share Investor

Long VS Short: Freightways Ltd
Freightway's keeps delivering
Why did you but that stock: Freightways Ltd
Freightway's delivers
Freightway's packages up a good result

Related links

Freightway's Financial Data



Dean <span class=

Dean Bracewell, Freightways MD

Interview 1 min 10 sec, 3.69 MB

Investor Relations -Freightways.co.nz
Value Cruncher


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c Share Investor 2008

Vili's acheivement individually brilliant


"I've dedicated so much to my parents, but tonight it was all about Val and all about [coach] Kirsten [Hellier], and just the hard work we've put in over the last 10 years,"

Valerie Vili 2008.


Valerie Vili's win last night at the 2008 Beijing Olympic shot put shows what an individual can do if one puts ones mind to it.

While Valerie wouldn't profess to be a role model, her achievement is surely a great example to others, especially those in the community in which she comes from, the Labour Party fed welfare disaster of South Auckland.

Valerie never gave up, she had a goal, individually pursued it after getting support from her parents and coaches, not the State, and as a result has become a well deserved success on the international stage.

The collective approach of the current Labour led Nanny State, where they teach you in school that it is OK just to participate rather than win, was ignored by Vili, and just as well.

If she and her parents hadn't ignored the Labour Party collective mantra, we wouldn't have heard the name Valerie Vili today.

Well done Val, I hope you enjoy your win and make a bundle out of it.

Related Political Animal reading


Mark Weldon strikes out on Carbon Trading

When Mark Weldon came from a well paid Wall Street job at the beginning of this century to become CEO of the New Zealand Stock Exchange [NZX.NZ] I held much promise for this dynamic, ambitious, innovative and successful young man.

Weldon has fostered the NZX from a economic backwater exchange into a more broad based one with more revenue streams-even though it is still a underdeveloped exchange, but that is another story.

Unfortunately Weldon's latest push for more revenue, in the form of launching a "Carbon Trading platform", whatever that means, is at the risk of ameliorating his good results so far, and more.

Weldon seems to have caught the zealotry nature of the carbon trading Nazis , like Minister for "Climate Change", whatever that means, David Parker.

Mark talks of his TZ1 Carbon Platform as "leading the world" and "innovative".

"The most important thing NZX can do here is get the right CEO, free the business to succeed, and hold a high quality team accountable for results."

No it isn't Mark. Trading a real asset is the most important part of any market. Even if you had the smartest person in the world who fully understood the carbon trading market, you will still find it impossible to make this kind of platform a long term success because of its fraudulent nature.

Mark Weldon goes on:

"Mark Franklin is the perfect CEO for TZ1. He has the right technical background, knowledge, relationships, credibility, strategic skills and drive. Mark chose this position ahead of a number of global roles on offer to him - a choice that reflects his belief in the potential of this market.

Quite frankly we have heard this kind of enthusiasm for business and markets based on nothing for as long as human beings have had a history. The majority of Internet businesses and wild poppies traded in Holland during the 1600s were two similar fake manipulated markets and both of them collapsed with spectacular results.

The carbon trading market collapse will make those meltdowns look like a Tom Hanks and Meg Ryan movie.

The carbon trading market and the "economics" on which it is based has its genesis in the fraud that is the Enron invented carbon trading market and its associated Al Gore pushed "climate change" movement, scientifically disproved and with a negative economic impact rather than a positive one-which clearly makes it a liability rather than an asset.

To put so much misplaced faith in a market for trading carbon credits simply defies economics 101, something that Mark should have remembered from his 3rd form economic class-an asset has to have a clear value, be easily understood have a real demand based on an intrinsic value, not a demand pent up by politicians and scientists on the State breast-in other words a false market.

When the price of an asset is based on the regulator or principle organiser of trading that asset, TZ1 in this case, or the government setting or influencing the carbon price, then the relationship of trading to the value of that asset is not only artificial but in the long term unsustainable, in the true sense of that word, and will eventually lead to its collapse.

Mark Weldon has forgotten the basics to investing, what an asset is, the fact that a market relies on real assets to have any chance of a long term future and the history of previous economic collapses.

Putting faith in "Carbon Trading", being excited and passionate about it being a huge success is a thin veneer pasted over the reality behind it that it is based on a fraud.

You should be ashamed of yourself Mark.


Related Share Investor reading

Carbon Credit trading puts global markets at extreme risk
Of Tulip bulbs and Tooth fairies
Global warning: Tax iceberg ahead

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Kristen Byrne - 15 year old schoolgirl debunks climate change myth

NZX financial data



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c Share Investor 2008

Sunday, August 17, 2008

Colmar Brunton Poll:17 August 2008

Aug 17, 2008

National on track for gold (2:53) video

National is on track to win gold in this year's election despite recent unwelcome headlines.
Prime Minister Helen Clark has picked up support but is still trailing in National leader John Key's wake.

New Zealand First leader Winston Peters was caught up in the saga over receiving secret donations from wealthy businessmen.

And secret tapes hinted at leadership divisions and a secret agenda in the National Party.
But despite the drama, it doesn't seem to have hurt the party. National still has the support of more than half of all voters.

Labour has closed the gap a little, now on 37%. But Labour's gain is the Greens' loss. They are polling just 3.5%. The Maori Party sits just above 3%, New Zealand First is in deep trouble on 2.6% and United Future and the Act Party barely registered.

Continued


Colmar Brunton Poll: 20 July 2008
Colmar Brunton Poll: 22 June 2008

c Political Animal 2008

National Party list out

The National Party list out this evening comprises yet more new MPs. This is in stark contrast to Labour's current motley crewe, which is comprised mainly of MPs from the 1980s.


The National Party's 2008 list is out and is as follows:


Name
Electorate

John Key
Helensville


Hon Bill English
Clutha-Southland


Gerry Brownlee
Ilam


Simon Power
Rangitikei


Hon Dr Nick Smith
Nelson


Hon Tony Ryall
Bay of Plenty


Judith Collins
Papakura


Hon Maurice Williamson
Pakuranga


David Carter
List


Anne Tolley
East Coast


Hon Murray McCully
East Coast Bays


Dr Hon Lockwood Smith
Rodney


Dr Wayne Mapp
North Shore


Chris Finlayson
Rongotai


Tim Groser
New Lynn


Steven Joyce
List


Hon Georgina Te Heuheu
List


Nathan Guy
Otaki


Lindsay Tisch
Waikato


Pansy Wong
Botany


John Carter
Northland


Phil Heatley
Whangarei


Dr Paul Hutchison
Hunua


Shane Ardern
Taranaki - King Country


Dr Richard Worth
Epsom


Hon Tau Henare
Te Atatu


Sandra Goudie
Coromandel


Eric Roy
Invercargill


Dr Jonathan Coleman
Northcote


Kate Wilkinson
Waimakariri


Chris Tremain
Napier


Chester Burrows
Whanganui


Craig Foss
Tukituki


Allan Peachey
Tamaki


Peseta Sam Lotu-Iiga
Maungakiekie


Hekia Parata
Mana


Melissa Lee
List


Kanwal Bakshi
Manukau East


Jo Goodhew
Rangitata


Jacqui Dean
Waitaki


Paula Bennett
Waitakere


Chris Auchinvole
West Coast Tasman


Nicky Wagner
Christchurch Central


David Bennett
Hamilton East


Dr Jackie Blue
Mt Roskill


Katrina Shanks
Ohariu


Colin King
Kaikoura


Paul Quinn
Hutt South


Michael Woodhouse
Dunedin North


John Hayes
Wairarapa


Simon Bridges
Tauranga


Amy Adams
Selwyn


Louise Upston
Taupo


Todd McClay
Rotorua


Tim Macindoe
Hamilton West


Aaron Gilmore
Christchurch East


Nikki Kaye
Auckland Central


Dr Cam Calder
Manurewa


Dr Conway Powell
Dunedin South


Stephen Franks
Wellington Central


Marc Alexander
Wigram


Malcolm Plimmer
Palmerston North


Mita Harris
Mangere


Terry Heffernan
Port Hills


Ravi Musuku
Mt Albert


Jonathan Young
New Plymouth


Richard Whiteside
Rimutaka


Paul O'Brien
List


Youngshin Watkins
List


Hamuera Mitchell
List


Viv Gurrey
List


Dugald McLean
List


Simon O'Connor
List



Related Links




c National Party & Political Animal 2008

Saturday, August 16, 2008

2008 Election outcome

Going by the latest political polls and the trend of others over the last year, it looks like National will get the bulk of the vote by far at the coming election. The poll trend of National being way ahead of Labour has continued in the two latest polls this weekend and is likely to be reinforced by a TV One Colmar Brunton Poll out tonight.

All the fear mongering and finger pointing over a "return to the 1990s and selling taxpayer assets" by Clark and her socialist misfits just hasn't helped them. Most of us can see past that as the lie that it is and a large bulk of voters are too young to remember the when New Zealand had to sell its assets to say afloat.

Don't count your chickens though if you are a National voter and hoping they will deservedly govern alone. Remember we have a bizarre voting system called MMP.

At current polls, if Labour was to get around 35% of the vote and National was down to about 50% the smaller parties that currently support Labour could get another Labour Minority government by a whisker and given what Ms Clark would have to bribe Winston, the Greens and the Maori Party with to get their support, New Zealand would be in for some even dodgier legislation passed than we have already seen over the last 9 years.

Labour are going to pull out the mother of all bribes shortly before the election so I think a close race is on the cards, with National having a slight edge.


Fairfax Nielson Poll: 16 August 2008
Roy Morgan Poll: 15 August 2008

c Political Animal 2008

Winnie the Blogger

Apparently Winston Peters has been blogging. Now I don't know if it is him that personally writes his blog but it certainly contains some of Winnie's hallmark victim mentality, invective and characteristic silliness and chips on both shoulders over his media coverage.

An excerpt from Winnie the Blogger as opposed to Winnie from Wonderland:

Winston Says...

…people ask “what’s up with New Zealand media?”…

It’s a good question.

In recent weeks, we have witnessed one of the most systematic and dirtiest smear campaigns in the history of New Zealand politics. And many media outlets and their journalists have been either wittingly or unwittingly complicit. The near hysteria with which some journalists and right-wing blog sites have written about these allegations and back-slapped each other is almost laughable. The fact remains that nothing outside the laws has occurred involving New Zealand First.

Many journalists have lost their perspective on these matters. At a time when the economy is very likely in recession, when we’ve had winter storm after winter storm, when petrol prices have soared, finance companies have collapsed, many families are struggling , the headlines have been full of slurs and downright lies about New Zealand First. Journalists need to get back in touch with what is truly important in this country.


Peters goes on to support his railing against mainstream media and "right wing blogs" by using tired old political hack Tom Frewen and the creator of Dilbert as support for his views against "foreign ownership" and media bias.

Same old shite, just a different day.

What we really need to know old wise one, who is funding your blog?


Related Political Animal reading

POLITICAL POLL: Peters gone in Tauranga
Don't let the bastard go
Winston Peters lost in Wonderland
Winston's big Baubles

Related Links

Winston's Blog

c Political Animal 2008

POLL: Fairfax Nielson 16 August 2008

National leader John Key's honeymoon with voters is starting to look like a very comfortable marriage.

National has barely budged from governing-alone territory in our Fairfax Media-Nielsen poll - last November being the previous occasion when it dipped below 50 per cent.

Labour's situation may not yet be irredeemable - it will be heartened that, on this result, it is within cooee of the 39 per cent of the vote it gained in 1999 to win the election. It won in 2002 with 41.2 per cent of the vote and in 2005 with 41.5 per cent.

But the numbers don't tell the full story - and comparisons to dog tucker are becoming harder to dodge.

In 1999, 2002 and 2005, Labour won against a diminished National Party and though its poll ratings appear to be holding up, that has come at the expense of the minor parties - not National.

Continued


Fairfax Nielson Poll: 19 July 2008
Fairfax Neilson Poll: 21 June 2008
Fairfax Neilson Poll: 17 May 2008
Fairfax Neilson Poll: 23 Feb 2008

c Stuff.co.nz & Political Animal 2008

Friday, August 15, 2008

Woolworths to seek leave to appeal to Supreme Court

As I tipped yesterday, and the first scoop for The Share Investor Blog, the decision for either Woolworths Australia[WOW:ASX] or Foodstuffs to make an appeal to the Supreme Court to challenge the decision made in the Court of Appeal was imminent, little did I know it was going to be announced an hour ago.

Woolworths announced this afternoon that they would seek leave from the Supreme Court to appeal the decision made against them and Foodstuffs in the Appeal Court 11 working days ago.

The Commerce Commission's Paula Rebstock will be positively apoplectic with rage and will fight this hard in the Supreme Court in Wellington.

Woolworths making the announcement is significant because they appear to be the most likely winner in a all out bidding war should the Warehouse be allowed to sold.

Woollies have the deepest pockets and today they are showing how aggressive they can be by being first out of the gate to inform the market that they are going all the way.

Given the hard edged nature of their business practice across the Tasman it is my opinion that they will be the owner of the Warehouse in due course.


The Warehouse @ Share Investor


When will The Warehouse bidders make their move?

Long vs Short: The Warehouse Group
Warehouse bidders ready to lay money down
The Warehouse set to cut lose "extra" impediment
Warehouse appeal decision imminent
Warehouse decision a loser for all
Warehouse Court of appeal decision in Commerce Commission's favour
MARKETWATCH: The Warehouse
The Warehouse takeover saga continues
Why did you buy that stock? [The Warehouse]
History of Warehouse takeover players suggest a long winding road
Court of Appeal delays Warehouse bid
The Warehouse set for turbulent 2008
The Warehouse Court of Appeal case lay in "Extras" hands
WHS Court of Appeal case could be dismissed next week
Commerce Commission impacts on the Warehouse bottom line
The Warehouse in play
Outcomes of Commerce Commission decision
The fight for control begins soon

Share Investor Forum-Discuss this topic


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The Warehouse Financial Data

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c Share Investor 2008 & 2009


Roy Morgan Poll: 15 August 2008

Whatever Labour has tried to do to peg back the polls it isnt working. National lead with a consistent large margin.

Looks like it is plan b for Labour-give everyone $10000.00 if they vote for them.


Finding No. 4314 - Latest New Zealand Morgan Poll for mid August conducted with 834 New Zealand electors over the period of July 28 - August 10.: August 15, 2008

In mid August 2008 the New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National Party support at 48% (up 0.5%) still well ahead of the Labour Party 34% (up 1.5%), if an election were held now the National Party would win.

Support for the Greens was 7.5% (down 0.5%), NZ First 6.5% (up 1.5%), Maori Party 2% (down 1%), ACT NZ 1.5% (down 1%) and Others 0.5% (down 0.5%).

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen for the second New Zealand Morgan Poll in a row, rising strongly to 103.5 (up 12pts). It is now at its highest level since being at 104.5 in early May. Now more New Zealanders 44.5% (up 6%) say the country is “heading in the right direction” compared to 41% (down 6%) that say the country is “heading in the wrong direction.”
There has been a similar rise in the Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating which has also strengthened, up 7.1 points to 94.9, and up 12.9 points since early July.

Gary Morgan says:

“Support for Helen Clark’s Government remains weak, although the National Party has lost the momentum it has held for much of the year.

“Revelations of a ‘secret agenda’ revealed by bugging at the recent National Party Conference have led voters to re-evaluate what the National Party is actually offering New Zealanders.

“If the vote continues to tighten New Zealanders can look forward to a Coalition Government perhaps comprising the Greens or New Zealand First.”

Electors were asked: “If an election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

This latest Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 836 electors from July 28 - August 10, 2008.

Continued


Roy Morgan Poll: August 1 2008
Roy Morgan Poll: July 18 2008

c Political Animal 2008

Carbon trading legislation looks set to be rammed through

There is a rumour circulating around Wellington that Labour have been secretly meeting with the Greens and NZ First over the stalled Carbon credit trading legislation that Labour want to desperately pass.

They only have just over 2 weeks to pass the legislation needed to allow carbon credit trading to begin in New Zealand.

Now apart from the fact that Carbon Credit trading is based on the whole global warming, sorry "climate change", fraud, passing such negatively impactive legislation in a rushed manner is going to cause more problems than it will seemingly "solve".

The collapse of such a trading system is inevitable , as it is based on a "good" that is worth precisely nothing. You want to rush through half arsed legislation to bring in this kind of dodgy stuff?

Please no!

All I can hope is that the trek up the mountain yesterday by David Parker, Energy Minister and Climate Change zealot, will knock some sense into him and he will do a 180 degree turn.


Related Political Animal reading

Kyoto critic comes to town
Global warming: Power to the people
Carbon Credit trading puts markets at extreme risk
Global Warning: Tax iceberg ahead
Unstoppable global warming
Earth Day: Turn on, tune out, buy some candles
TIME magazine slips inconvenient truth past its readers
The Great Global Warming Swindle
PRIME TV PRESENTS: The Great Global Warming Swindle
Kristen Byrnes-Ponder the Maunder
Helen Clark and Jeanette Fitzsimmons in conflict with business
Of tulip bulbs and tooth fairies


c Political Animal 2008

Goodman Fielder to improve bottom line in 2009

Discuss Goodman Fielder at Share Investor Forum


The commodities bubble has burst in my opinion, something that I commented on a couple of months ago.

While it might be bad for those investors who recently bought into that booming sector-I know a couple of people currently being advised by brokers to buy BHP Billiton [BHP. AX] and Rio Tinto [RIO.AX]-there are benefits for investors in other sectors.

Staple consumer stocks like Kraft[KFT.NYSE] , Mars-Wrigley, Coca Cola [KO.NYSE] and Australasia's listed Goodman Fielder [GFF.NZX] food group will reap massive rewards in bottom line profit.

Dropping corn prices will benefit Coca Cola, Mars-Wrigley and many other consumer stocks who use the corn syrup made from corn as a base for many of their sweet to taste products.

Input costs of raw materials ranging from raw food costs, to packaging and transport have all dropped by an average of 15% on US commodities exchanges and this is clearly good for business.

Goodman Fielder for example has been suffering badly from high commodity prices over the last year, wheat especially having a big impact on bread prices. It even had to go to the extent of writing down the value of its New Zealand Dairy assets because of the deteriorating economy.

The price of wheat has declined 40 percent from a record $13.495 a bushel in February to $9.0925 a bushel as of yesterday.


http://www.maidennewton.biz/assets/images/Wheat_field.jpg
The lower costs of commodities like wheat to food manufacturers mean more black ink to the bottom line, as companies are reluctant to pass on production savings to consumers.


In the 2 months to August 6 the US wheat production was up almost 20% from this time last year.

Corn crops previously thought to be savaged by floods in the US Midwest are now on track to deliver near record cropping.

You may have noticed Goodman Fielder branded breads in supermarkets haven't had their prices cut since the raw wheat price drops and none of their other wheat based or corn based products have taken a price hit.

All this means Goodman are very well placed to increase profit substantially in the 2009 year as their large range of branded and packaged consumer food products will have their input costs into production substantially cut.

As food manufacturers passed on costs when commodities were rising it is unlikely that they will cut as commodity prices slump.

Bad for consumers, but very good for investors in consumer stocks.

Disclosure - I own GFF Shares

Goodman Fielder @ Share Investor

Goodman Fielder turning on the DRIP
Commodities bubble set to burst
Why did you buy that stock? Goodman Fielder
Goodman Fielder hit by high commodity prices
Goodman Fielder a Hedge against an economic slump
Goodman Fielder pie gets bigger

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Kraft good in a recession -Everything Warren Buffett
Goodman Fielder - Corporate Website
Cbot.com - Commodity prices

Goodman Fielder Financials


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c Share Investor 2008

Thursday, August 14, 2008

Darkness at the centre of Labour's energy plans

National’s energy policy, to make it easier to build power stations and use our under exploited coal and gas resources, is a good antidote to Labour’s Russian roulette attitude to power supply over the last 9 dark years.


Over NZ $3 B was lost from the economy over this winter due to business having to cut back production not to mention the long term losses from overseas companies not investing here because of uncertain power supply.

We need to use thermal and coal supplies to give us cheaper energy to stimulate our minuscule growth rate, instead of shipping it overseas for others to warm their hands by.

The several power crises that NZ has faced over the last 9 years is a direct result of Labour and the Greens stopping the building of power stations.

Wind will never be a reliable alternative.

If you are worried about Green house gases-I’m not because the idea of Carbon being a problem isn’t scientifically possible-worry about the record levels of C02 pumped out over the last 4 months as the Whirinaki diesel station is running at full capacity and so is the coal fired Huntly.

Get your head out of the tramping mountains Ms Helen.

It would be nice to see ANY election policy released from Labour, kiwis haven’t seen any yet.

Whats on your secret agenda for New Zealand Labour?



c Political Animal 2008

Labour Party Election Policy: where is it?

Zip, zero, nada, zilch, nought, nothing.

Sorry about the padding but without it this post would be empty.

Labour have been critiquing National for not having any policy releases for the coming election, even though they have released at least four policies in the last week, but have released none themselves.

We all know that most of their policies have been passed post election without any indication beforehand.

The scary part is what are they being so secret about?

The removal of the Privvy Council, introduction of the Electoral Finance Act, introduction of Carbon taxes and removal of section 59, or the Anti smacking bill and many other unpopular, destructive and anti democratic laws have been passed without any heads up or campaigning before an election.

Where is the policy Helen?!

c Political Animal 2008

JOHN BOSCOWEN: Freedom of Speech Trust Newsletter-Edition 4

Freedom of Speech Trust Newsletter No. 4
By John Boscawen

15 August 2008

Dear Darren,

Campaign goes to the Sunday newspapers

We took the campaign to repeal the Electoral Finance Act to last weekend’s newspapers with full page ads in each of the Sunday Star Times and the Herald on Sunday.

The ads focused on the following issues:

1. Parliament ignored both the Human Rights Commission and the New Zealand Law Society in passing the Act.

2. New Zealanders have been subject to a form of election year censorship never seen before in this country. The ad itself had been carefully drafted to ensure that it could not be seen as an “election advertisement”. There was much that we dare not say and that was censorship pure and simple.

3. The Act has had a profound impact on how political parties campaign and many are afraid in case they overspend. Labour, NZ First, the Greens and the Progressives have all fallen foul of it. (With the Progressives recently having had an ad referred to the Police for possible prosecution).

4. The law regarding third parties is uncertain and complex and limits those who wish to be involved in the election campaign to spending less than half that recommended by the Human Rights Commission.

5. The promise of greater transparency that cannot be circumvented is simply not true. For example if the Vela family had ten companies each could give up to $10,000 of its own money to New Zealand First and this $100,000 would not need to be disclosed (this is not a hypothetical example as the New Zealand Companies Office records suggests that there are eight or more Vela named companies with a further five related to the Vela owned New Zealand Bloodstock group).

6. At the same time that Parliament severely limited what you and I can spend and do in election year it passed another law giving political parties more taxpayer’s dollars for their own election campaigns.

A copy of last Sunday’s ad is attached to this email. Please forward it to your friends and colleagues or print it off and post it on a noticeboard.


What needs to happen now?

The Act needs to be repealed before this years election otherwise the election risks becoming a farce, marred in legal challenges both before and after the election. As a very minimum the third party spending limit should be increased to $300,000 as recommended by the Human Rights Commission.

Dominion Post Editorial – Monday 11 August “System to suit an African despot”

Under this heading The Dominion Post has again called for the repeal of the Electoral Finance Act.

“The act must go. It has had only humour value since January 1 …..The act’s critics foresaw the current muddle. The law is undemocratic and the way it was imposed an exercise in arrogance.”

The Dominion Post is but only one of the newspapers that have spoken out against the Electoral Finance Act. The tragedy however is that it represents far more than “humour value”. It undermines four of our most cherished democratic rights

1. The right to hold free and fair elections.
2. The right to exercise free speech.
3. The right to campaign either for or against the government.
4. The right to be fully informed.


High Court grants strike out application in our case against the Attorney General

Late last year Garth McVicar spokesperson for the Sensible Sentencing Trust, the late Graham Stairmand, then national president of the Grey Power Federation, Rodney Hide, MP and myself commenced legal proceedings against the Attorney General, Michael Cullen seeking a declaration that he had failed in his duty to notify Parliament that the Electoral Finance Bill was inconsistent with the New Zealand Bill of Rights Act (BORA). After the Act was passed we amended our claim to also ask for the Court to make a declaration of inconsistency, on the grounds that the EFA was inconsistent with BORA .

The Crown sought to strike out these claims on the grounds that we had no right to bring them. The strike out application was heard in the High Court in Wellington on 15 May and the Court delivered its decision in late June. The Court agreed with the Crown and struck out both actions. While we were not surprised that the action against the Attorney General was struck out, on the grounds of parliamentary privilege we were both surprised and disappointed that the Court struck out our claim for a declaration of inconsistency. The High Court also relied on an earlier case in 1992 and we anticipated that we would need to go to the Appeal Court to have this overturned.

We have decided to appeal this ruling and the appeal will now be heard by the Appeal Court in Wellington on 23 October.

While this hearing will probably be before the election, there is no guarantee we will get a decision before then, and in any event, even if we are successful it is very unlikely we will be able to argue the substantive issue before the election.

If you would like to read a copy of our submissions to the High Court on the Crown’s strike out application and the Court’s judgment please email me and I will be happy to send you a copy.

Please forward this email on

No one should be in any doubt about the type of censorship the Electoral Finance Act imposes. It does little if anything to increase transparency over donations that cannot be circumvented. Its real objective is to restrict the right of ordinary New Zealanders to speak out and to campaign either for or against a political party in election year.

Please take the trouble to discuss the issues this newsletter raises with your friends, family and work colleagues.


Regards

John Boscawen
Trustee – Freedom of Speech Trust
021 760 630


Electoral Finance Act coverage @ Political Animal

Tauranga Electoral Finance Act protest goes off
Labour first to break own Electoral Finance Act
Auckland Electoral Finance Act protest
Owen Glenn and Labour Party funding
Labour buys Tim Shadbolt's silence
Victim of Electoral Finance Act forced to shut down website
Extending a middle finger in 2008
Electoral Finance Act: The vote
Historical day as New Zealand loses democracy
Tuesday 18 December 2008: The death of democracy
Mike Moore turns the knife on Electoral Finance Bill
List of MPs who voted for the Electoral Finance Act
Electoral Finance Bill debate continues
Cartoon and comment: Winston Churchill Clark
Electoral Finance Bill: The purpose is clear
Electoral Finance Bill gets stalled in Parliament
Auckland EFB protest gets 5000
Christchurch March against EFB
2nd Auckland EFB protest
Wellington March against EFB
Auckland EFB protest March: Nov 17 2007
NZ Herald gets nasty over EFB


c Political Animal 2008

Helen Clark play comes to the Pumphouse

From the Listener is a run down of a play currently touring New Zealand and now at the Pumphouse on Auckland's North Shore, where I live coincidentally.


It looks like it might be quite a good show and you will probably see me there. Buy Tickets

In 2005, before the last election, essayist Richard Meros used that intrigue as the founding block from which to build a discourse on such topics as Rogernomics, gender studies and bodily fluids. He called the philosophical and satirical result On the Conditions and Possibilities of Helen Clark Taking Me as Her Young Lover. Then, in 2007, mindful of the next election and with funding from Creative New Zealand (thus indirectly from the arts minister herself), actor Arthur Meek and director Geoff Pinfield mined that essay for dramatic possibilities – and struck gold when their one-man show premiered at Bats Theatre in Wellington in January this year.


On the Conditions is now touring nationally. In it, Meek plays Meros, presenting his essay as a PowerPoint-aided lecture and trying to convince us: a) that Clark must take a young lover to ensure her political survival; b) that Clark’s acquisition of a young lover will benefit the country; and c) that he, Richard Meros, between whose brown wool vest and brown tweed trousers exists a certain chemistry, should be that young lover. (The latter conclusion bringing a spontaneous applause from the near-capacity audience on the night I attended.)


Meros, furthermore, intends the tour of his lecture to bring him to Clark’s attention, so that he can gain the proximity necessary for him to persuade her to take him as her young lover.

Absurd. Brilliant. Delightful.

More from The Listener

Buy tickets to Pumphouse shows


c Political Animal 2008

Evidence mounting for a restructuring of ACC

With The National Party promising a long needed restructuring and the element of competition with the Accident Compensation Corporation, the highly inefficient government department continues to provide evidence that it should be privatised completely.

Over the last two weeks, ACC staff were exposed using taxpayer money to get pet grooming for spot and fluffy and day spas and manicures for themselves, a woman who lost all her limbs in a work accident is only allowed a maximum NZ$117,000.00 payout for loss of income, even though she would have made that sum in just one year, and the latest story to hit the media, again, cements ACC as the dinosaur that most know it as.

Mike Gibson, the man caught on video lifting boulders, mowing lawns and doing all sorts of work but officially unable to because of a bad back and getting ACC compensation for it, has not yet been prosecuted by the department and doesn't look likely to anytime soon.

According to reports this individual has been collecting ACC fraudulently for 20 years or more but ACC seem uninterested even with the mounting evidence against him.

These are only three stories that have hit the media, there are thousands more like them that havent. The Mike Gibsons of this world are ripping off the taxpayer and ACC are allowing them to, and the limbless woman not getting what they deserve are the just tip of a well manicured finger.

All this and ACC staff have the best looking pets and finger nails in the land, all courtesy of you and me.

All good reasons to privatise and ACC agrees with that too. The insurance scheme that covered ACC staff for pet grooming etc was provided by Southern Cross.

An efficient, well run private insurance company.


Related Political Animal reading

Labour backs ACC rorts
ACC staff spending on day spas and pet grooming

c Political Animal 2008

Warehouse appeal decision imminent

Since the decision by the Appeal Court to deny Foodstuffs and Woolworths Australia [WOW:ASX] the right to make a takeover for The Warehouse [WHS.NZX] we are half way along the 20 working day period for the appellants to take leave to appeal to the Supreme Court against the decision.

Investors in the company might be thinking a number of possible scenarios.


1. That no appeal will be made

2. That an appeal is taken and won or lost

3. If lost what the prospects are for the company in its current form

4. If won how much shareholders want for their shares

5. Will Stephen Tindall make another play at full private control of his company?

6. If either Foodstuffs/Woollies or the Commerce Commission lose in the Supreme Court will either seek a judicial review?


I'm guessing here but if either Foodstuffs or Woolworths was going to drop an appeal to the Supreme Court I think they would have come out already and put us all out of our collective misery. The fact that nearly ten working days have passed would indicate that lawyers from both companies, as well as The Warehouse itself, would be mulling over the Appeal Court ruling, looking for inconsistencies, mistakes and holes that they could drive a successful argument through in the Supreme Court.

I think there will be an appeal for those reasons.

At present the retail sector in New Zealand isn't looking too bright. Christmas 2008 shopping is looking dim and the prospect for a serious spending upswing isn't likely until well into 2009 in my opinion.

Never fear though!

As always with economics and the economy things do change and the retail sector will pick up and The Warehouse will be stacking up profits once again.

Where things will get really interesting is if Tindall or Foodstuffs/Woollies get control. We will likely see an expansion of the company towards larger format stores that stock more food items- a complete roll out of the "Extra" format in other words.

This is unlikely to happen under the current ownership, as the capital needed will be large and the deep pockets of an owner like Woolworths or a private partnership, along with Tindall will be able to modernise the chain with that big capital base behind them, with the ultimate benefit going to the consumer. This is where the Commerce Commission has erred in my opinion-a significant expansion of The Warehouse is only likely to happen if the company is able to be put up for sale.

The possibility that Stephen Tindall would make a play for full control is a likely one if all else fails. I don't think this can happen until after the tussle between Foodstuffs/Woollies and the Commerce Commission is resolved. It would be nice to see him own his baby outright again though. The question would then be how much would he offer to take control.

Some commentators have said Tindall wouldn't have to bid much higher than the current share price of a round $NZ3.50 per share. I think that is dreaming myself because Foodstuffs and Woolworths both have 10% holdings that cost them considerably more than that and would not accept anything less than what they paid.

Tindall would need the 20% sum of those two companies holdings to make a successful takeover and so the offer to all shareholders would have to be north of the $6.50 price that Woolworths bought their 10% for.

Woollies and Foodstuffs would clearly hold the upper hand in this position.

In the case of a competing bid for The Warehouse by Foodstuffs or Woollies should they ultimately be allowed to bid for the company, it is up to shareholders not to shortchange themselves. Tindall already owns about 53% of the company, so they need to grab his holding, the 10% either of the two bidders owns , so that would leave 27% of shareholders like myself to agree with the price the two big shareholders agree to sell for to take an offer to the 90% threshold and therefore compulsorily take the remaining 10%.

Of course everything could be left completely up in the air for another year or so, after waiting for a Supreme Court hearing, by a judicial review of a decision made in that court.

It has been done before by Foodstuffs in the case of Progressive Enterprises wanting to merge Foodtown's brands with Woolworths NZ in 2002. Woolworth's Australia then bought that merged entity in 2005.

Whatever the final outcome, investors can be sure there will be a considerable wait to get a final decision.

Disclosure: I own WHS shares




The Warehouse Group @ Share Investor

The Warehouse: Is it Time to Bow Out?
Share The Warehouse: What the Fuck is it Doing?
Share Investor Q & A: The Warehouse' Ian Morrice  
Share Investor Q & A: Questions to The Warehouse' Ian Morrice
Long Term View: The Warehouse Group Ltd
Share Investor Short: Warehouse Group yield worth a look
The Warehouse Group: 2010 Interim Profit Review
The Warehouse: Big Brands, Big Opportunities
Warehouse strike opportunity to buy
Long Term Play: The Warehouse Group
Share Investor Short: Warehouse Group yield worth a second look
Woolworths supermarket consolidation an indicator of a move on the Warehouse?
Stock of the Week: The Warehouse Group
Warehouse 2009 interim profit a key economic indicator
When will The Warehouse bidders make their move?
Long vs Short: The Warehouse Group
Warehouse bidders ready to lay money down
The Warehouse set to cut lose "extra" impediment
The Warehouse sale could hinge on "Extra" decision
The case for The Warehouse without a buyer
Foodstuffs take their foot off the gas
Woolworths seek leave to appeal to Supreme Court
Warehouse appeal decision imminent
Warehouse decision a loser for all
Warehouse Court of appeal decision in Commerce Commission's favour
MARKETWATCH: The Warehouse
The Warehouse takeover saga continues
Why did you buy that stock? [The Warehouse]
History of Warehouse takeover players suggest a long winding road
Court of Appeal delays Warehouse bid
The Warehouse set for turbulent 2008
The Warehouse Court of Appeal case lay in "Extras" hands
WHS Court of Appeal case could be dismissed next week
Commerce Commission impacts on the Warehouse bottom line
The Warehouse in play
Outcomes of Commerce Commission decision
The fight for control begins soon

Discuss WHS @ Share Investor Forum - Register free 
Download WHS company reports




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c Share Investor 2008 & 2009