Monday, August 3, 2009

A Closer look: Domino's Pizza Enterprises Ltd



I have always been a big fan of fast food, as a consumer and as an investor.

I used to have a stake in Restaurant Brands Ltd [RBD.NZX], the New Zealand franchisee of Pizza Hut, KFC and Starbucks.

As business these sorts of companies are excellent ones to own, if they are well managed, cost and service levels kept on top of and food quality maintained.

If none of these things are adhered to they can be a license to go out of business. RBD has struggled for years with the operation of its Pizza Hut franchisee, finally relenting and selling the business to owner operators.

Domino's Pizza Enterprises Ltd [DMP.ASX] is the Australian listed pizza chain franchisee that runs over 750 Domino's pizza outlets in Australia, New Zealand, France, Belgium, The Netherlands and the Principality of Monaco of all places and like most other fast food chains is currently doing well, with a huge rise of profit forecast that is to be announced 19 August because of the switch from going out to eat to punching the keypad and settling down on the couch with a pizza and Coke.

Webcast ImageWebcast
Q2 2009 Domino's Inc.[DPZ.NYSE] Earnings Conference Call (Replay)
07/22/09 at 11:00 a.m. ET

To be fair Domino's has been growing outlets, sales and profit for a few years before the current boom and it is a very well operated business, with a focus on the bottomline and customer satisfaction the two main keys to its success and it has ambitious plans to keep growing. It has grown quickly by purchases of other pizza brands, adding sub-franchisees and good old-fashioned organic growth through efficiencies and great marketing.

But beware the fast food business or any food business for that matter can be a fickle one. Pizza, more than any other slice of this market seems to have very big swings in business cycles from boom to bust and they operate on wafer thin margins and high throughput, with constant competition from mum and dad pizza stores to the other large and smaller chains.

Domino's does have an edge though. It specializes in one thing and does it well and its owner operators are the secret to the Australian Franchisor success (Domino's OZ is itself a Franchisee of big daddy Domino's Inc [DPZ.NYSE] in the USA but in turn has franchisees that own and operate individual stores that provide a percentage of their store turnover which is Domino's OZ main form of income-apart from sales from its company owned stores ) driving the Domino's brand, literally, to become the worlds largest Pizza Delivery and sales company.

Domino's Australia seems to be near the top of their current growth phase but having said that there will be more boom times to come and lets hope their good management gets them through the troughs to come.

The ASX listed stock seems fully priced at current levels and is worth adding to your portfolio during its down cycles.

Domino's @ Share Investor

Domino's Australia dominant in Australasia

The Dots get the Hots

Discuss Domino's Pizza Enterprises @ Share Investor Forum

Related Links

Domino's Pizza Enterprises - Corporate Website | Investor Relations

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DMP 2008 Annual Report - 10MB PDF

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c Share Investor 2009

Stock of the Week: Methven Ltd




This edition of Stock of the Week focuses on little known company (unless of course if you are already a shareholder) Methven Ltd [MVN.NZ].

Methven is an up and coming star in the bathroom products/kitchenware area as far as delivering water to the consumer via their various faucet related products (it has been around for for 125 years) and it has recently had an overriding push to market high end to higher quality mass market products, rather than high volume lower quality mass market garbage from China or elsewhere and that is the main reason why I chose this stock.

Management are clearly on the ball too with their emphasis on the quality end of the mass market where higher margins are made, with a good niche to carve out, especially for a smaller Kiwi player that simply cannot compete on scale.

They haven't done spectacularly well over the last 12 months because of the building downturn, but with aspirations to become a global brand and the willingness to apply money to research new and innovative products, as well as pursuing growth by careful acquisitions Methven should be able to achieve their goals.

Growth will return once we start building again and in the meantime the company is focused on trimming unnecessary costs, to alleviate the temporary dip in profit.

As you can see from the chart above the share price has plumbed the depths to around 65c 4-5 months ago but that is off a 52 week high of NZ$1.74 and an all-time high of $2.80 near the end of 2008.

The dividend yield of just over 12% gross is also a very attractive feature of this stock and apparently will still look quite handsome even with the small profit drop.

Buy on weakness, there should be some stock price drops as the year plods on with the lower profit forecast.

Good luck!


Stock of the Week Series

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Methven Ltd @ Share Investor

Long Term View: Methven Ltd
Stock of the Week: Methven Ltd

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Download MVN Company Reports


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Bird on a Wire: The Inside Story from a Straight Talking CEO

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c Share Investor 2010



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c Share Investor 2009

Saturday, August 1, 2009

Sky City debts levels now more manageable

Sky City Entertainment Group [SKC.NZ] has been named by Bruce Sheppard as one of his list of NZX companies with debt worries.

Now that time has passed since Bruce debt analysis, on June 30 2008 figures, lets take a look and see whether his criticism about high debt levels is now warranted.

Lets look at company debt levels from the last 5 years:

FIVE YEAR SUMMARY














Consolidated Balance Sheets













As at 30 June


2008 2007 2006 2005 2004




$000 $000 $000 $000 $000









LIABILITIES















Current liabilities






Payables


121,668 119,501 100,776 97,005 93,619
Interest-bearing liabilities
- - - 100,758 101,000
Derivative financial instruments
- - 25 - -









Total current liabilities
121,668 119,501 100,801 197,763 194,619









Non-current liabilities





Interest-bearing liabilities
677,884 753,002 950,904 956,795 579,967
Subordinated debt - capital notes 123,772 123,756 123,720 121,510 149,644
Subordinated debt - SKYCITY ACES 186,538 161,410 177,956 - -
Deferred tax liabilities
77,891 52,992 60,596 45,438 -
Derivative financial instruments
23,561 50,774 3,072 - -
Convertible notes

- - - - 8,910
Other term liabilities

- - - - 27,216









Total Non-current liabilities
1,089,646 1,141,934 1,316,248 1,123,743 765,737









Total liabilities

1,211,314 1,261,435 1,417,049 1,321,506
960,356

Interest cover (EBITDA/Net Interest) 3.8x 3.3x 3.3x 3.4x 5.1x










Full 5 Year Financial Summary

We can see then that debt incurring interest or charges (of all different types) nearly doubled from 2004-2006 to over NZ $1.3 billion at its highest (due mainly to buying and financing Adelaide and Darwin casinos and cinema assets.) but since then, at balance date 30 June 2008, (Bruce's debt level comparison date) debt had been paid down to just under $1.1 billion.

In addition to that, the company has paid back $84 million with the proceeds of a capital raising and other debt reductions to take total debt to below $ 800 million, still high but more manageable and it leaves net debt to ebitda ratios that Bruce worried about down from 3.8x in June 2008 to below 2.5x as at 9 July 2009, the lowest ratio in 5 years.

This has further been alleviated by a large increase in profit and revenue for the 2009 Full Year result to be announced 26 August.

As I said above, debt levels are still very high but steps have been taken to change that and with good management the company has put itself in a position so that the business is functioning well and is an even better position now to consolidate this debt.

As interesting as Bruce Sheppard's company debt analysis has been it would be even more interesting to see how June 2008 stacks up with June 2009.

In Sky City's case I think he might assess that they have addressed his worries.

They have mine.


Disclosure: I own SKC shares in the Share Investor Portfolio

Sky City Entertainment Group @ Share Investor

Discuss this stock @ Share Investor Forum

Related links

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Full 5 Year Financial Summary - Where the table above comes from
Correspondence between Bruce Sheppard & Sky City over debt levels
Sky City July Debt payback

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c Share Investor 2009

Friday, July 31, 2009

Stock of the Week: Metlifecare Ltd



Metlifecare Ltd [MET.NZ] has been on my watchlist for yonks. I already own Ryman Healthcare Ltd [RYM.NZ] I love this sector and it is because of its very high historical revenue and profit growth and its similar future protects as the number of older people (especially those greedy economy sucking baby boomers) increases in very large numbers

Metlifecare has been somewhat of a poor cousin to Ryman over the last few years when it comes to its profit. It has had a couple of big asset writedowns over the last 2 years and that has lead to a punishing in its stock price.

A great opportunity.

That is why it makes my Stock of the Week this week (better late than never, I know it is the end of the week) that, and it will bounce back into profit when property prices recover.

The stock has hit a 52 week low of NZ$1.38 and a high of $4.60 but that is well off its all time high of nearly 9 bucks reached not that long ago (see chart above) so you can see the potential for a good long term and medium term gain even if today's closing share price is $2.06.

Buy on weakness, there should be some more for this stock come its profit reporting in November.

Good luck!


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c Share Investor 2009