Thursday, March 26, 2009

Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks: Looking Back

Back on December 17 2008 I picked a handful of stocks that I thought were good ones to pick up while they were cheap. Most of them I already own but some I don't.

It has been the most read article on the Share Investor Blog and like every successful smash hit it deserves a sequel.

I have added 3 additions to the picks at the end of 2008. They are at the end of this post.

Over 3 months later lets see how they have done. The chart below compares my four original picks; Fisher & Paykel Healthcare, Mainfreight Ltd, Pumpkin Patch and Ryman Healthcare against the NZX 50 gross index.

The NZX 50 gross is down around 2% since December 17 2008.



Fisher & Paykel Healthcare

My first pick was Fisher & Paykel Healthcare [FPH.NZ] and I picked it for its very good long term outlook and its resilience in times of economic downturns.

How has it done since then ?

Well against the NZX 50 about 20% better and against itself share price wise around 4% better than December 17 2008, to finish at $3.16 today.

It has been as high as 15% up from December 17 levels on March 11 2009 and the company is due a good result in May thanks to higher sales and a stronger US dollar.

Not a bad pick by me and the share price will pick up more this year.

Related Links

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare financial data


Fisher & Paykel @ Share Investor

Fisher & Paykel set for a healthy 2009
Big Fisher & Paykel share trades a curious tale
Why did you buy that stock? [Fisher & Paykel Healthcare]
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Share Investor's 2008 stock picks
Fisher & Paykel: A tale of two companies
FPH downgrade masks good performance



Ryman Healthcare

Ryman Healthcare was my second pick and one again its long-term prospects was the main reason I included it in my 2009 picks and in my long-term portfolio.

How has it done in the last 3 months?

Down 4% more compared to the NZX 50 and down 3% as of publish date of this column compared with its share price on December 17 2008.

Pretty good result so far.

I also picked Metlifecare [MET.NZ] for my watchlist. A competitor of Ryman Healthcare it has done badly since December 2008.

Related Links

Ryman Healthcare financial data


Ryman Healthcare @ Share Investor

Why did you buy that Stock? Ryman Healthcare
Time for retirement?


Mainfreight Ltd

Mainfreight Ltd [MFT.NZ] is one of the better run companies on the NZX but the share price hasn't done well since we last met it in December.

It is down 8% compared to the NZX 50's 3% since December 17 2008, even though its recent profit was up slightly.

Related Links

Mainfreight Ltd financial data

Mainfreight @ Share Investor

Long vs Short: Mainfreight Ltd
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A rare breed


Pumpkin Patch Ltd

Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL.NZ] was well and truly battered and bruised during 2008 with a 60% share price drop so I figured there was room for some upwards movement in share price.

It reached a low of 78c earlier this year but it is actually up by around 4% since December 17 2008.

Related Links

Pumpkin Patch Ltd financial data


Pumpkin Patch @ Share Investor

Pumpkin Patch buyback shows confidence in the future
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Why Did you but that Stock? [Pumpkin Patch]
Rod Duke's Pumpkin Patch gets bigger
Buyer of large piece of Pumpkin Patch a mystery
Pumpkin Patch a screaming buy
Broker downgrades of PPL lack long term vision
Pumpkin's expansion comes at a cost
Pumpkin Patch VS Burger Fuel
Pumpkin Patch profits flatten
New Zealand Retailers ring up costs not tills


Other Quotable Notables (Part 2)



Telecom NZ [TEL:NZ] is at exactly the same price it was on December 17 and my pick remains to buy on weakness close to 2 bucks.

Contact Energy [CEN:NZ] Trustpower [TPW:NZ] and Vector[VCT:NZ] are still good buys and Contact Energy has lost 15% of its share price since December 18, mainly due to regulation uncertainty and clearly the weakened share price makes it even more attractive. Trustpower remains pretty even and Vector has risen around 5%.

Auckland International Airport[AIA:NZ] has rise a few percentage points and still remains a strong buy on weakness.

Westpac [WBC:NZ] and ANZ Bank [ANZ:NZ] have both risen by 15% in the last 3 months .


Additional Stock Picks for March 26 2009




I would include all my December 17 2008 picks on share price weakness and would include the following.

Goodman Fielder [GFF.NZ] because it is near its all time lows while still an attractive long term proposition.

Michael Hill International [MHI.NZ], like Goodman, its share price has been given a good beating and I think great value. Its in good financial shape but under short-term pressure from a sales slowdown.

Sky City Entertainment [SKC.NZ], my biggest holding, has been beaten down since December 2008 but has still managed a good profit result for half year ending December 31 2008, buy on any weakness below the current share price of NZ$2.78.

Disclosure: I own RYM, FPH, PPL, AIA, SKC, MHI, GFF and MFT shares

Related Share Investor Reading

Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks


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Shes Gone, only the devil can replace her

Thursday Mar 26, 2009

With Helen Clark's imminent appointment to 3rd banana at the UN I am reminded of an incident that happened at the UN building a few years ago.

After having a 5 star dinner at the UN Council buildings in New York, UN delegates from unpronouncable countries in Africa and Eastern Europe ate off the best china, used fine linen and shoveled it all down with the finest in silver cutlery.

The only problem was that 10s of thousands of dollars of those utensils were pinched by those same delegates.

Lets not even mention Serbia, Iraq, Darfur and Zimbawe.

Clark will be in the company of like minds and I am being very generous when I say that.

We all know what she has been up to over the last 9 years.

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North Shore Council Lawyers pay a Visit

Further to email correspondence from Andrew Williams yesterday it appear that he is wasting yet more council money in asking lawyers to have a look at the article written below (it includes said email) to presumably try and take some action to shut me up.

The Law firm, Burton & Co, don't come cheap so there goes another grand or two of ratepayer money:

New Zealand
mis.burtonco.co.nz (203.97.83.106) [Label IP Address]
darrenrickard.blogspot.com/2009/03/my-correspondance-with-andrew-williams.html
darrenrickard.blogspot.com/2009/03/my-correspondance-with-andrew-williams.html
www.whaleoil.co.nz/?q=content/mad-mayor-jussht-keepsh-digging

Well, it isn't his money so I guess it is OK?

mmm.

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Wednesday, March 25, 2009

My Correspondence with Andrew Williams

I will give Andrew Williams, the Mayor of the North Shore of Auckland this, he does reply to his correspondence and you cant say that about many politicians.

He really needs some anger management though, as you will see at the end of this post.

I initially emailed him on Monday about a piece I wrote on Political Animal about his shenanigans with ratepayer money, principally his use of NZ$1342 to buy wine for his political allies to popularise his opposition to John Banks and his great idea for one Auckland, one mayor.

My initial email:

-----Original Message-----
From: Darren Rickard
Sent: Monday, 23 March 2009 9:05 p.m.
To: mayor@northshorecity.govt.nz
Subject: Article in Political Animal on Andrew Williams

Dear Mr Andrews,

please see the article below that was published on Monday 23 March. I attach
it as a courtesy to you and hope you take it on board...

Regards,  Darren Rickard.

The Mayor's reply:

date Tue, Mar 24, 2009 at 1:21 AM
subject RE: Article in Political Animal on Andrew Williams
mailed-bynorthshorecity.govt.nz


Hi Darren

Thanks for emailing me this info. Much appreciated. The media love to sensationalise trivia but ignore all the positive work I am doing, and the results of my council.

Regards 

Andrew Williams Mayor Andrew Williams


He thought I was supporting him which would have been bizarre because the content of Monday's Political Animal post wasn't exactly complimentary. It is clear that both the emailer(me) and the writer were the same.

I tried once again with a similar reply.

I then emailed this last night to finally get my point across:

-----Original Message-----
From: Darren Rickard

Sent: Tuesday, 24 March 2009 10:43 p.m.
To: Mayor Andrew Williams
Subject: Re: Article in Political Animal on Andrew Williams

Hi Andrew,

I do NOT support you. Your arrogant, money wasting, rude and sometimes
downright nutty antics as Mayor led me to write this.

Regards, Darren Rickard.

To be sure the content of this email might seem a little strong and my article was even stronger but they are facts as I see them and they are shared my a large majority of people who live on the North Shore of Auckland and the Mayor has been, well , nutty.

Here is Andrew's unedited reply, 

from Mayor Andrew Williams
to Darren Rickard

date Wed, Mar 25, 2009 at 8:51 AM
subject RE: Article in Political Animal on Andrew Williams
mailed-bynorthshorecity.govt.nz


You selfish, selfish, selfish nasty person. How dare you email me in such a mannerwith total ignorance of the facts.

I work long hours day, night and at weekends helping people and groups all over the Shore. Every day people ask me for help with issues and I assist them. And I also have taken leadership with my council to sort out big problems such as PAK n SAVE, Birkenhead Library, TAKAPUNAkiosk, Albany high school, Long Bay Great Park, Whenuapai airport., Chelsea heritage park. And the list goes on.

I have revised budgets and expenditure to reduce rate increases from 8.4% to 5.9%. Efficiencies have been found across council spending.

And yes 15 yr old filthy shabby couches have been replaced. As they should be for important VIP guests to NZ's 4th latgest city. And for 20 years and before that there has been a civic events budget, including wine. This council has had the lowest wine use I am told. We didn't even have wine at our swearing in function.

The bridge at Campbells Bay has been a 10 year community project. To provide safe access across an all too often sizeable tide of water. To provide safe access to the toilets and playground. Council officers have however over engineered it, OSH rules have added cost. We will deliver this community project at lower cost.

So, don't email me with uninformed slaggings. You should be grateful that this Mayor is a hands-on Mayor who gets on with the business, takes a 'can do' attitude, and is leading this city strongly...to get the best outcomes for our city.

What have you ever done for anyone else but yourself?. And what have you done for our city? ANYTHING APART FROM MOAN AND SLAG OFF AT THE MAYOR???

Andrew Wiliams
Mayor

My only conclusion is that Andrew thinks it is OK to waste ratepayers money on expensive bottles of wine for political reasons and that his record rate rise because of his wasteful spending is hunky dory as well.

Interesting the kind of people that we vote to represent ourselves huh?


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